第一篇：蘭德公司：中國大飛機夢還很遠(yuǎn) 應(yīng)加強國際合作

蘭德公司：中國大飛機夢還很遠(yuǎn) 應(yīng)加強國際合作

美國智庫蘭德公司的環(huán)境、能源和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展項目組最近在專題研究報告中指出：盡管有以十億計的資金投入和一系列優(yōu)惠政策的扶持，中國的商用航空制造業(yè)發(fā)展并未達(dá)到預(yù)期，未來發(fā)展面臨的挑戰(zhàn)依然嚴(yán)峻。

近年來，中國的“大飛機夢”越來越多地被人提起。作為國家科技實力和制造能力發(fā)展重要標(biāo)志的商用航空制造產(chǎn)業(yè)，受到中國政府青睞。但美國智庫蘭德公司環(huán)境、能源和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展項目組最近在專題研究報告中指出：盡管有以十億計的資金投入和一系列優(yōu)惠政策的扶持，中國的商用航空制造業(yè)發(fā)展并未達(dá)到預(yù)期，未來發(fā)展面臨的挑戰(zhàn)依然嚴(yán)峻。

中國一直對制造商用飛機有濃厚興趣。但長期以來，中國的飛機制造業(yè)以制造軍用飛機為主，商用航空制造業(yè)被嚴(yán)重擠壓，產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模非常有限，中國的商用航空市場基本被外國企業(yè)壟斷。

進(jìn)入21世紀(jì)后，中國政府下定決心發(fā)展自己的商用航空制造業(yè)，并于2008年整合力量成立了中國商用飛機有限責(zé)任公司，試圖打造與空中客車和波音比肩的國際大型商用航空制造公司。

蘭德公司的報告認(rèn)為，受政策刺激影響，中國商用航空制造業(yè)取得了一定發(fā)展。2005~2010年間，行業(yè)總產(chǎn)值增長了兩倍多，相關(guān)從業(yè)人員超過25萬人，有兩款機型在研發(fā)、生產(chǎn)、推廣等方面也都取得了一些突破。但報告同時指出，目前商用航空制造業(yè)在中國工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值的占比仍然很小，2010年時僅有0.17%。同時，中國制造的飛機在國際市場上競爭力也很有限，2011年時僅占國際市場份額的1.3%。中國民用航空制造業(yè)距離預(yù)期的發(fā)展目標(biāo)顯然還有很長的路要走。

報告列舉了中國商用飛機制造產(chǎn)業(yè)面臨的困難和挑戰(zhàn)。

技術(shù)上存在不足。中國已在制造飛機渦輪葉片等方面取得突破，但仍無法自主生產(chǎn)大飛機引擎、航電設(shè)備等重要部件。由于航空業(yè)高度重視安全問題，美國聯(lián)邦航空管理局和歐洲航空安全局要求，任何航空零部件在使用前都要經(jīng)過其檢驗和認(rèn)證，這對中國相關(guān)制造企業(yè)提出了更高的要求。

行業(yè)人才積累薄弱。項目組調(diào)查走訪發(fā)現(xiàn)，中國商飛公司飛機設(shè)計團(tuán)隊中的大部分成員還不滿30歲，商用航空制造所必需的復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)整合能力比較缺乏。

海外市場競爭力有限。中國政府通過對外援助等方式，向東南亞國家推銷中國商用飛機，目前已有成功案例。但其象征意義大于實際意義，加之雙方簽訂的合同很“軟”，未來執(zhí)行程度還有很大疑問。海外維修保障網(wǎng)絡(luò)的缺乏，同樣嚴(yán)重制約了中國商用飛機在海外市場的競爭力。

報告認(rèn)為，中國扶持高端制造業(yè)的產(chǎn)業(yè)政策已形成一套“組合拳”：首先集中全國力量，成立產(chǎn)業(yè)龍頭企業(yè)，從資金、人才上給予大量支持；再通過建立合資企業(yè)，引起國外投資和技術(shù)；要求相關(guān)國有企業(yè)必須購買“國貨”，為產(chǎn)品建立銷售渠道。此外，中國政府還會通

過外交渠道，向國外市場大力推銷高端制造業(yè)產(chǎn)品，幫助其增加國際競爭力。

但是，對中國的商用航空制造業(yè)來說，上述政策的扶持效果并不明顯。報告指出，除了之前提到的產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模和海外競爭力等指標(biāo)外，接受項目組訪問的大多數(shù)專家都認(rèn)為，即便中國商飛公司成功地將已經(jīng)取得一些突破的ARJ-21和C919兩款機型推向市場，也不足以打破空客和波音兩強壟斷的局面。正如一位業(yè)內(nèi)人士所說：“對于中國而言，造飛機并不難，只要錢投夠了就行。但是運營一家有生命力、競爭力的飛機制造公司就沒這么容易了，錢不能解決所有問題?！?/p>

報告認(rèn)為，商用航空制造業(yè)是一項國際化、標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化的產(chǎn)業(yè)，對市場化程度要求很高。中國試圖采取“國家主義”，“舉全國之力”取得成功，困難和挑戰(zhàn)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過預(yù)期。

報告建議，中國政府可以考慮將更多資源投入到通用航空制造業(yè)。中航通用飛機有限公司已在該領(lǐng)域進(jìn)行了一系列國際收購，為打開國際市場奠定了良好基礎(chǔ)。此外，中國還可以通過加強知識產(chǎn)權(quán)保護(hù)、為國外企業(yè)提供更公平的投資環(huán)境等方式，吸引空客、波音等巨頭更多地在中國投資建立合資企業(yè)，以使中國更好地融入國際商用航空技術(shù)供應(yīng)鏈，并借此促進(jìn)中國相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)的內(nèi)生性發(fā)展。

American think-tank at the rand corporation environment, energy and economic

development program in a recent research report: despite the billions of money into and a series of preferential policy support, China's commercial aviation manufacturing industry development is not desired, the challenge for the future development is still grim.In recent years, China's “dream” big planes are more and more people.As a national science and technology strength and manufacturing capability development important symbol of commercial aviation manufacturingindustry, favored by the Chinese government.But American think-tank, the rand corporation environment, energy and economic development program in a recent research report: despite the billions of money into and a series of preferential policy support, China's commercial aviation manufacturing industry development is not desired, the challenge for the future development is still grim.China has been have strong interest in manufacturing commercial aircraft.But for a long time, China's aircraft manufacturing industry is given priority to with manufacturing military aircraft, commercial aircraft manufacturing is squeezed, industry scale is very limited, China's commercial aviation market basic monopoly by foreign enterprises.After entering the 21st century, the Chinese government decided to develop its

commercial aviation manufacturing industry, and integration of power in 2008 set up the commercial aircraft corporation of China, trying to build on a par with airbus and Boeing's international large commercial aviationmanufacturing company.The rand corporation report says, affected by the policy stimulus, China's commercial aviation manufacturing industry has obtained certain development.From 2005 to 2010, industry output value more than tripled, practitioners more than 250000 people, there are two models in the research and development, production, promotion, etc, were also made some breakthrough.But the report also pointed out that the current commercial aviation

manufacturing industry in China's industrial output value proportion is still small, only 0.17% in 2010.At the same time, the aircraft made in China is limited in the international market competitiveness, in 2011 only 1.3% of global market share.The development of China's civil aviation manufacturing distance expected goals clearly there is still a long way to go.Report cited China's commercial aircraft manufacturing industry facing difficulties and challenges.Technical shortcomings.China has made a breakthrough in manufacturing for gas turbine aircraft, but still unable to independent production of large aircraft engines, avionics and other important components.Due to the industry attaches great importance to the safety problems, the federal aviation administration and the European aviation safety agency requirements, before using any aviation parts go through the inspection and certification, for the related manufacturing enterprises in China put forward higher request.Industry talent accumulation is weak.Project survey found that comac aircraft design

most of the team members are under 30 years old, the commercial aviation manufacturing ability is lack of necessary for complex systems integration.Overseas market competitiveness co., LTD.TheChinese government through foreign aid, promote China's commercial aircraft to southeast Asian countries, there are success stories.But it is more symbolic than practical significance, in addition to the contract signed by both sides is very “soft”, executive level also has the very big question in the future.Lack of maintenance support overseas network, also restricted the competitiveness of China's commercial aircraft in the overseas market.According to the report, China's support policies of high-end manufacturing industries has formed a set of “combination” : first, focus on the national power, set up industry leading enterprises, a lot of support from capital, talent;Again through the establishment of joint venture, the foreign investment and technology;Requirements related to the state-owned enterprises must buy “air”, set up sales channels for our products.In addition, the Chinese government will, through diplomatic channels, vigorously promote high-end manufacturing products to foreign market, help to increase its international

competitiveness.However, for China's commercial aviation manufacturing, the support of the policy effect is not obvious.According to the report, in addition to the aforementioned industry scale and overseas competitiveness indicators, such as accept the team access most experts agree that even though somebreakthrough in comac will have been

successfully the arj-21 and C919 two models to the market, may not be enough to break the situation of airbus and Boeing duopoly tightly.As one industry source said: “for China, the aircraft is not difficult, as long as have enough money.But there are running a vitality and competitiveness of aircraft manufacturing companies aren't so easy, money cannot solve all problems.”

According to the report, the commercial aviation manufacturing industry is an industry internationalization, standardization, the degree of marketization is very demanding.China is trying to adopt “nationalism”, “” raise the strength of his whole success, difficulties and challenges far more than expected.The report suggests, the Chinese government can consider to put more resources into general aviation manufacturing industry.Avic general aircraft co., LTD.Has made a series of international acquisitions in the sector, and laid a good foundation for open international markets.In addition, China can also by strengthening the protection of intellectual

property rights, investment environment for foreign enterprises to provide more fair, attract the giant airbus, Boeing and other more investment to establish joint venture in China, in order to make China better in international commercial aviation technology supply chain, and to promote endogenous development of relevant industries in China.