第一篇：TED演講—Martin_Jacques《了解中國的崛起》(中英對照)

Martin Jacques: Understanding the rise of China The world is changing with really remarkable speed.If you look at the chart at the top here, you’ll see that in 2025 these Goldman Sachs projections suggest that the Chinese economy will be almost the same size as the American economy.And if you look at the chart for 2050, it’s projected that the Chinese economy will be twice the size of the American economy, and the Indian economy will be almost the same size as the American economy.We should bear in mind here these projections were drawn up before the Western financial crises.世界正在 以驚人的速度飛快得改變著。如果你看著這上方的圖表,你會看到在2025年，高盛投資公司的這些預測 表明中國經濟規(guī)模 會和美國經濟幾乎相當。如果看 2050年的圖表，預測表明中國經濟規(guī)模 將會是美國經濟的兩倍，印度的經濟規(guī)模將會和 美國的經濟幾乎持平。在這里，我們應該記住這些預測是在西方經濟危機之前做出的。

A couple of weeks ago, I was looking at the latest projection by BNP(Banque Nationale de Paris)PARIBAS for when China will have a larger economy than the United States.Goldman Sachs projected 2027.The post-crisis projection is 2010.That’s just a decade way.幾周前，我查看法國巴黎銀行的 最近預測，中國在什么時候 會超越美國經濟，成為第一大經濟體。高盛投資公司預測2027年。危機過后的預測 是2020年。這也不過只有10年的光景。

China is going to change the world in two fundamental respects.First of all, it's a huge developing country with a population of 1.3 billion people, which has been growing for over 30 years at around 10% a year.And within a decade it will have the largest economy in the world.Never before in the modern era has the largest economy in the world been that of a developing country, rather than a developed country.中國將在兩個基本方面上改變世界。首先，中國是一個幅員廣大的發(fā)展中國家 它有13億人口，在過去30年間 它以每年10%左右的經濟增長率發(fā)展。在未來10年間，它會有世界上最大的經濟體。在世界現代史中，以前從來都是發(fā)達國家 還沒有一個發(fā)展中的國家變成了世界上最大的經濟體。

Secondly, for the first time in the modern era, the dominant country in the world which I think is China will become, will be not from the West, and from very very different civilizational roots.第二，在現代史中第一次 在世界上，我認為中國會變成大國，它有別于西方國家而它是從非常，非常不同的文明根源發(fā)展起的大國。

Now I know it’s a widespread assumption in the West that as countries modernize, they also Westernize.This is an illusion.It’s an assumption that modernity is a product simply of competition markets and technology.It is not;it is also shaped equally by history and culture.China is not like the West, and it will not become like the West.It will remain in very fundamental respects very different.Now the big question here is obviously, how do we make sense of China? How do we try to understand what China is? And the problem we have in the West at the moment by-and-large is that the conventional approach is

that we understand it really in Western terms, using Western ideas.We can’t.Now I want to offer you 3 building blocks for trying to understand what China is like just as a beginning.現在我知道西方國家有一個普遍的假設 隨著國家的現代化，它們也會西方化。這是個幻想。這是對于現代化 僅僅是競爭，市場和技術的一種產品的假設。中國的現代化不僅僅是這樣的，也是由 歷史和文化共同作用下形成的。中國不同于西方國家，它也不會變成和西方國家一樣。它會在非常基礎的方面表現得 非常不同?，F在這的大問題明顯是，我們該怎樣認識中國？我們該怎樣了解中國？ 在西方我們現在的問題大體上 是傳統(tǒng)的方法 我們用西方的術語，用西方的觀點來了解 真正的中國。我們不能這樣?，F在我想給大家 3個基礎理由來試著了解中國只是起個頭。

The first is this, that China is not really a nation state.Okay, it's called itself a nation state for the last hundred years.But everyone who knows anything about China knows it’s a lot older than this.This was what China looked with the victory of the Qin Dynasty in 221 B.C.at the end of warring state period—the birth of modern China.And you can see it against the boundaries of modern China.Or immediately afterward, the Han Dynasty, still 2000 years ago, and you can see already it occupies most of what we now know as Eastern China which is where the vast majority of Chinese lived then and live now.首先是這個，中國事實上不是一個民族國家。在過去的幾百年，中國自稱是一個 民族國家。但對中國很了解的人 知道中國比這歷史要悠久得多。中國是 在公元前221年也就在戰(zhàn)國時期的末期從秦朝一統(tǒng)江山起，現代中國就誕生了。你可以看到現代中國的邊界線。隨之其后的漢朝，還在2000年前。你可以看出中國已經占據 我們現在所知的華東地區(qū)的大部分，絕大多數的中國人當時在那兒居住 現在還生活在那兒。

Now what is extraordinary about this is what gives China it’s sense of being China, what gives the Chinese the sense of what it is to be Chinese, comes not from the last hundred years, not from the nation state period which is what happened in the West, but from the period, if you like, of the civilization state.I’m thinking here, for example, of customs like ancestral worship, of a very distinctive notion of the state, likewise, a very distinctive notion of the family, social relationships like “guanxi”, Confucian values and so on.These are all things that come from the period of the civilization state.這點非同尋常的是，它賦予了中國做為中國的意義，也賦予了中國人 成為他們中國人的意義，這不是從過去幾百年，也不是從民族國家開始形成這種認識，這跟西方發(fā)展也不一樣，而這一階段，如果你喜歡，可以說是文明國家的階段。我想到這兒，舉個例子吧，傳統(tǒng)習慣例如：對祖先的崇拜，非常有特色的國家概念，諸如此類的，非常有特色的家庭觀念，社交關系如關系，儒家價值觀等等。所有這些事都來自于文明國家的階段。

In other words, China, unlike the Western states and most countries in the world, is shaped by its sense of civilization, its existence as a civilization state, rather than as a nation state.換言之，中國不像世界上的西方國家和多數國家，它由它自身文明所形成，它

是作為一個文明國家 而不是一個民族國家而存在的。

And there’s one other thing to add to this, and that is this.Of course we know China’s big, huge demographically and geographically, with a population of 1.3 billion people.What we often aren’t really aware of is the fact that China is extremely diverse and very pluralistic, and in many ways very decentralized.You can’t run a place on this scale simply from Beijing, even though we think this to be the case.It’s never been the case.還有另一件事要加進來，這就是： 當然我們知道中國是幅員遼闊，人口眾多，在人口統(tǒng)計和地理上都是首屈一指，它有13億人口。我們常常沒關注的 事實是 中國也是極其多樣化 和非常多元化的，在許多方面甚至權力是非常分散化的。盡管我們認為不能僅從北京中央政府來管理這龐大規(guī)模的國家，我們以為會是這樣，但從來都不是這樣。

So this is China, a civilization state, rather than a nation state.And what does it mean? Well, I think it has all sorts of profound implications.I'll give you two quick ones.所以這才是中國，一個文明國家，而不是一個民族國家。那這意味著什么呢？那么我想這有很多種深刻的含義。我會給你兩個簡短介紹。

The first is that the most important political value for the Chinese is unity, is the maintenance of Chinese civilization.You know, 2000 years ago, Europe breakdown, the fragmentation of the Holy Roman Empire, it divided, and its remained divided ever since.China, over the same time period, went in exactly the opposite direction, very painfully holding this huge civilization, civilization state together.第一個是中國人最主要的政治價值觀是統(tǒng)一，用來維護中華文明。大家知道，2000年前，歐洲滅亡，神圣羅馬帝國[羅馬帝國]的分裂。從那時到現在，它不斷地分裂。在同一時間段，中國卻有著完全相反的方向，非常艱難地維系著這種強大的統(tǒng)一文明，把文明國家統(tǒng)一在一起。

The second is, maybe more prosaic, which is Hong Kong.Do you remember the handover of Hong Kong by Britain to China in 1997? You may remember what the Chinese constitutional proposition was, one country, two systems.And I’ll lay a wager that barely anyone in the West believed them.Window dressing.When China gets its hands on Hong Knong, that won’t be the case.13 years on, the political and legal system in Hong Kong is as different now as it was in 1997.We were wrong.Why were we wrong? We were wrong because we though, naturally enough in nation state ways.第二 或許是更一般的例子 香港的例子。大家是否記得香港 在1997年從英國政府轉交給中國政府？ 大家能記得 中國憲法體制是什么嗎？ 一國兩制。我會打賭 在西方沒有人會信這一套。“裝飾門面。當中國政府接手香港，這不可能。” 13年來，香港現在的政治和司法體制 和1997年一樣，但和中國大陸的有所不同。我們都錯了，為什么我們理解錯了呢？ 我們錯是因為我們理所當然地 以民族國家角度思考。

Think of German unification, 1990.What happened? Well, basically the East was swallowed by the West.One nation, one system—that is the nation state mentality.But you can’t run a country like China, a civilization state on the

basis of one civilization, one system.It doesn't work.So actually the response of China to the question of Hong Kong—as it will be to the question of Taiwan—was a natural response: one civilization, many systems.想想1990年德國統(tǒng)一。發(fā)生什么了？基本上東德被西德吞噬。一個國家，一個體制。這是民族國家的心態(tài)。但是你不能用此來管理一個像中國這樣的, 一個文明國家，它建立在一種文明，一個體制上。這行不通。的確中國在香港問題上的回應也是在臺灣問題上的回應，它是一個很自然的回應： 一種文明，多種體制。

Let me offer you another building block to try to understand China, maybe it’s not such a comfortable one.The Chinese have a very very different conception of race to most other countries.Do you know of the 1.3 billion Chinese, over 90% of them think they belong to the same race, the Han.Now this is completely different from the other world’s most populous countries.India, the United States, Indonesia, Brazil—all of them are multiracial.The Chinese don’t feel like that.China is only multiracial really at the margins.So the question is, why? Well, the reason I think essentially is again back to the civilization state.Very very…you know, at least 2000 years, a history of conquest, absorption, assimilation and so on, led to the process by which over time this notion of the Han emerged, of course, nurtured by a growing and very powerful sense of cultural identity.讓我來說另一個基礎理由來試著了解中國, 這或許是一個讓人不舒服的理由。中國與其他大多數國家對民族的概念 有非常，非常不同的理解。大家知道，13億中國人，超過90%的中國人認為他們屬于同一個民族，漢族。目前這與世界上其它人口眾多的國家截然相反。印度, 美國，印度尼西亞，巴西，他們都是多民族的。中國人沒有感到過多民族。中國僅是在邊界線上有多種少數民族的人。那問題是，為什么？ 好吧，我認為實質上，原因得再次追溯到這文明國家。至少在2000年的歷史長河中，征服，占領，合并，同化等的歷史隨著時間的推移導致了漢民族這概念的形成過程 當然，這概念也孕育了增強了漢文化認同感 也使其變得非常強大, 具有深遠意義。

Now the great advantage of this historical experience has been that, without the Han, China could never have held together.The Han identity has been the cement which has held this country together.The great disadvantage of it is that the Han have a very weak conception of cultural differences.They really believe in their own superiority, and they are disrespectful of those who are not.Hence their attitude, for example, to the Uyghurs and to the Tibetans.現在這歷史經驗的巨大優(yōu)勢 呈現出來，沒有漢民族，中國永遠不可能連為一體。漢民族文化認同一直 把這個國家粘合在一起。它的巨大的劣勢 是漢民族對文化差異 有很少的認知概念。他們真正相信他們自身漢族文化的優(yōu)越性，他們不尊重 那些不同民族的差異性。因此, 舉個例子，比如他們對待回族和藏族的態(tài)度。

Or let me give you my third building block, the Chinese state.Now the relationship between the state and society in China is very different from that in the West.Now we in the West are overwhelmingly seem to think—in these days at least—that the authority and legitimacy of the state is a function of

democracy.The problem of this proposition is that the Chinese state enjoys more legitimacy and more authority amongst the Chinese that is true with any Western state.And the reason for this is because—well, there’re two reasons I think.And it’s obviously got nothing to do with democracy, because in our terms the Chinese certainly don’t have a democracy.讓我給出第三個基礎理由，中國式的國家。現在在中國 國家和社會間的關系 非常不同于西方的那種關系。在西方我們 絕大多數人似乎認為--至少在最近國家的權威和合法性 是民主的一個功能。有關這問題 是中國這個國家 對中國人民享有更多合法性 和更多權威性 這 比起 任何西方國家，它都是事實。這個的原因 是因為 我認為有兩個理由。中國很明顯與民主無關，因為依我們來看，中國完全稱不上是民主。

And the reason for this is, firstly, because the state in China is given a very special.It enjoys a very special significance as the representative, the embodiment and the guardian of Chinese civilization, of the civilization state.This is as close as China gets to a kind of spiritual role.這個理由是，首先，因為在中國，國家 是一個非常特別有所指的，它享有一個非常特別的意義 作為中華文明的代表，體現 和捍衛(wèi)者，也是代表中國國家的代表，化身和捍衛(wèi)者。這也接近中國有種 精神象征的作用。

And the second reason is because, whereas in Europe and North America, the state’s power is continuously challenged—I mean in the European tradition, historically against the church, against other sectors of the aristocracy, against merchants and so on.For 1000 years, the power of the Chinese state has not been challenged.It’s had no serious rivals.So you can see, the way in which power has been constructed in China is very different from our experience in Western history.第二個理由是因為，反之在歐洲，北美洲，國家的權力不斷受到挑戰(zhàn)。我指在歐洲歷史傳統(tǒng)，歷史上反對教堂，反對其它各種貴族階級，反對商人等等有1000年歷史，中國國家的權力從來沒被挑戰(zhàn)過。它沒有真正的對手可抗衡。所以大家可以看到在中國已經建立的權力的方式與我們西方歷史的經驗非常不同。

The result, by the way, is that the Chinese have a very different view of the state.Whereas we tend to view it as an intruder, a stranger, certainly an organ whose powers need to be limited or defined and constrained, the Chinese don’t see the state like that at all.The Chinese view the state as an intimate—not just as an intimate actually, as a member of the family;not just in fact as a member of the family, but as the head of the family, the patriarch of the family.This the Chinese view of the state, very very different to us.It’s embedded in society in a different kind of way to what the case in the West.順便提一下，結果是中國人看待國家有非常不同的視角。鑒于我們傾向于把國家看作是一個入侵者，一個陌生人，當然是一個組織它的權力需要被限制或被界定和約束，中國人可一點都不這樣看待國家。中國人視國家作為一個親密的朋友，也不止是作為一個密友，作為家庭里的一員，事實上也不止是家里一員，而是一家之長，家庭里的家長。這是從中國視角來看待國家, 和我們的截然不同。根植于中國社會的案例與我們在西方的社會例證是完全不同的。

And I would suggest you that actually what we are dealing with here, in the

Chinese context, is a new kind of paradigm, which is different from anything we’ve had to think about in the past.You know that China believes in the state and market, I mean, Adam Smith already writing in the late 18th century, said, “the Chinese market is larger and more developed and more sophisticated than anything in Europe.” And, apart from the Mao period, that remained more-or-less the case ever since.But this is combined with an extremely strong and ubiquitous state.The state is everywhere in China.I mean, its leading firms, many of them are still publicly owned.Private firms, however large they are, like Lenovo, depend in many ways on the state patronage.Targets for the economy and so on are set by the state.And the state, of course, its authority flows into lot of other areas as we are familiar with, with something like the one-child policy.我給大家的建議是我們的確要了解 在中國背景下，這是一種新的范例，它與 我們過去曾想過的范例是不同的。要知道中國人相信市場和國有。我指，亞當·斯密 在18世紀晚期已經著書，說過，“中國市場比起歐洲的任何一個市場，它都是較大的，較為發(fā)達的 也是較為復雜的?！?除了毛澤東時代，中國市場大體是如上的例證。但這也是 在一個極強大和無處不在的國家做后盾。國家就是中國的一切。我指，它引領著公司，他們中的許多公司還是國企所有。私有企業(yè)，不管它們有多大，像Lenovo聯(lián)想，在很多方面也依賴于國家的資助。國家設置了經濟目標 等等。當然，國家的權威也穿插在許多其他方面 比如我們所述熟悉的 獨生子女政策。

Moreover, this is a very old state tradition, a very old tradition of statecraft.I mean, if you want an illustration of this, the Great Wall is one.But this is another, this is the Grand Canal, which was constructed in the first instance in the 5th century B.C.and was finally completed in the 7th century A.D.It went for 1114 miles, linking Beijing with Hangzhou and Shanghai.So there’s a long history of extraordinary state infrastructure projects in China, which I suppose helps us to explain what we see today, which is something like the Three Gorges Dam and many other expressions of state competence within China.So there we have 3 building blocks for trying to understand the difference that is China—the civilization state, the notion of race and the nature of the state and its relationship to society.此外，中國是一個非常古老的傳統(tǒng)國家，有一個非常古老傳統(tǒng)的治國綱領。如果你想搞明白這樣的例子，長城就是其中一個。但這有另一個，這是（京杭）大運河，它起初是在公元前5世紀被建造的在公元7世紀時它最終竣工。它有1114英里，鏈接北京到杭州和上海。在中國，非凡的國家大型基礎建設的歷史由來已久，我認為這也幫助我們來了解我們今天所看到的，例如三峽大壩工程和許多中國其它的國家工程業(yè)績。所以這3個組成部分 讓我們了解中國的不同--文明國家，民族的概念和國家的屬性以及它和社會的關系。

And yet we still insist, by-and-large, in thinking that we can understand China by simply drawing on Western experience, looking at it through Western eyes, using Western concepts.If you want to know why we unerringly to get China wrong, our predictions about what’s going to happen to China are incorrect, this is the reason.Unfortunately I think, I have to say that I think attitude

towards China is that of a kind of little Westerner mentality.There’s kind of arrogant.It’s arrogant in the sense that we think that we are best, and therefore we have the universal measure.總地說來，我們還一直堅持 認為我們僅從西方經驗的視角 就能理解中國 通過西方人視角 使用西方理念來看透中國。如果你想知道 我們?yōu)槭裁磳χ袊绣e誤的認識 我們對在中國發(fā)生的事情的預言為什么也是不正確的 這上所述就是原因。不幸的是我認為，我得說我認為 對中國的態(tài)度 是西方人的一種心態(tài)做崇。這是傲慢的心態(tài)。就傲慢的心態(tài)而言 我們認為我們是最好的，因此我們有普世的評判標準。

And secondly, it’s ignorant.We refuse to really address the issue of difference.You know, there’s a very interesting passage in a book by Paul Cohen, the American historian.And Paul Cohen argues that the West thinks of itself as probably the most cosmopolitan of all cultures.But it’s not.In many ways, it’s the most parochial, because for 200 years, the West has been so dominant in the world that it’s not really needed to understand other cultures, other civilizations.Because at the end of the day, it could, if necessary by force, get its own way.Whereas those cultures, virtually the rest of the world in fact, which have been in a far weaker position, vis-à-vis the West, have been thereby forced to understand the West, because the West’s presence in those societies.And, they are, as a result, more cosmopolitan in many ways than the West.其次，這是無知的。我們拒絕真正承認問題的不同面。大家知道，美國歷史學家保羅·柯文(Paul Cohen)的書里（《在中國發(fā)現歷史——中國中心觀在美國的興起》）有一段非常有意思的話。保羅·柯文講到 西方認為它自身文化好比是所有文化里最具有國際化的文化。但事實不是。在許多方面，它是最狹隘的，因為200年來，西方一直主宰世界它不必去了解其他文化，其他文明。因為，到頭來，必要時可動武，彰顯其自身文化。反之這些其它文化 幾乎在世界其它地區(qū)的，事實上，面對西方文化，它們一直處于相對較弱的地位，從而也一直被迫來了解西方文化，因為西方文化在這些社會有影響力的原因。所以,結果是它們 在許多方面比起西方更國際化。

I mean take the question of East Asia: Japan, Korea, China, etc.a third of the world’s population lives there, now the largest economic region in the world.And I’ll tell you now, that East Asianers, people from East Asia, are far more knowledgeable about the West than the West is about East Asian.Now this point is very germane, I’m afraid, to the present.Because what’s happening? Back to that chart at the beginning the Goldman Sachs chart.What is happening is that, very rapidly in historical terms, the world is being driven and shaped, not by the old developed countries, but by the developing world.I mean we’ve seen this in terms of the G20 usurping very rapidly the position of the G7 or the G8.And there are 2 consequences of this, first, the West is rapidly losing its influence in the world.There was a dramatic illustration of this actually, a year ago, Copenhagen, climate change conference, Europe was not at the final negotiating table.When did that last happen? I would wager it was probably about 200 years ago, and that is what

is going to happen in the future.我們來談談東亞的問題。東亞：日本，韓國，中國等等--世界上三分之一人口住在那邊，現在是全球最大的經濟區(qū)域?，F在我會告訴你，東亞人，東亞的人們，對西方的認識程度比起西方國家對東亞的認識程度要深的多?，F在我恐怕這個觀點到現在還是非常有影響的。因為發(fā)生的變化嗎？回到開始的圖表--高盛投資公司的圖表。當前發(fā)生的 是，在歷史上非常迅速，世界不是 被老舊的發(fā)達國家 所驅動和塑造，而是被發(fā)展中新興國家。我們看到這個 G20二十國集團 它非常迅速地搶占G7七國集團 或者G8八國集團的地位。同時這有兩個結果。第一，西方正快速地失去它在全球的影響。一年前就有一個戲劇性的例證證明這個觀點哥本哈根，氣候變化會議.歐洲沒有出現在最后討論談判桌上。上次歐洲置之事外是在什么時候？我敢打賭約在200年前也發(fā)生同樣的事。在未來這還會發(fā)生。

And the second implication is that the world will inevitably as a consequence, become increasingly unfamiliar to us, because it’ll be shaped by cultures and experiences and histories that we are not really familiar with or conversant with.And at last, I’m afraid, take Europe, America is slightly different, but Europeans by and large I have to say are ignorant, are unaware about the way the world is changing.Some people, I’ve got an English friend in China, he said “the continent is sleepwalking into oblivion.” Well maybe that’s true, maybe that’s an exaggeration.But there’s another problem which goes along with this that Europe is increasing out of touch with the world and that is a sort of a loss of a sense of the future.I mean, Europe once, of course, once commanded the future in its confidence.Take the 19th century for example, but this, alas, is no longer true.第二個含義是世界將不可避免地急劇變化，對我們來說很陌生，因為世界被我們所不熟悉的或者不精通的文化，經驗和歷史所重塑。最后，我恐怕，拿歐洲來說，美國是有點不同的，但大體上，我得說歐洲人是無知的，他們沒有意識到 世界上正在發(fā)生的改變。有人，我有一個在中國的英國朋友，他說，“舊大陸在夢游似的會被遺忘?！?好吧，恐怕是對的，恐怕這有點夸張。但另一問題隨之產生歐洲正在日益與世界脫節(jié)這是一種 對未來感的缺失。當然，我指歐洲曾自信地 引領未來。拿19世紀來舉例。唉，但這已經風光不在。

If you want to feel the future, if you want to taste the future, try China—there’s old Confucius.This is a railway station the like of which you’ve never seen before.It doesn’t even look like a railway station.This is the new Guangzhou railway station for the high-speed trains.China already has more of the bigger network than any other country in the world and will soon have more than all the rest of the world put together.Or take this: now this is an idea, but it’s an idea to be tried out shortly in a suburb of Beijing.Here you have a megbus, on the upper deck carries about 2000 people.It travels on rails down a suburban road, and the cars travel underneath it.And it does speeds of up to about 100 miles an hour。

如果你想感知未來，如果你想感觸未來，看看中國，這是古代的孔子。這是一個火車站 這是你以前從未看到過的。它看上去不像是火車站。這是為了高速列

車行駛而新建的廣州火車站。中國已經比起全球其他國家有更多的鐵路網不久就會超過全球鐵路網總和。舉個例子：現在這是個想法，但這想法不久就會在北京郊區(qū)實現。這兒會有一輛超級公交，在公交上層會承載2000人。它會沿著郊區(qū)的路上軌道行駛，車輛可以在它下面穿行。它的時速可達每小時約100英里。Now this is the way things are going to move, because China has a very specific problem, which is different from Europe and different from the United States.China has huge numbers of people and no space.So this is a solution to a situation where China’s going to have many, many, many cities over 20 million people。

現在這個就是未來交通方式，因為中國有非常具體問題，它有別于歐洲 和美國。中國人口眾多，但很少空間。所以當中國將會有 越來越多的城市超過2000萬人口時，這會是應對這種情況的解決方案。

Okay, so how would I like to finish? Well, what should our attitude be towards this world that we see very rapidly developing before us? I think there will be good things about it and there will be bad things about it.But I want to argue above all, a big picture positive for this world.You know, for 200 years, the world was essentially governed by a fragment of the human population.That’s what Europe and North America represented.The arrival of countries like China and India—between them 38% of the world’s population, and others like Indonesia and Brazil and so on, represent the most important single act of democratization in the last 200 years.Civilizations and cultures which had been ignored, which had no voice, which were not listened to, which were not known about, will have a different sort of representation in this world.As humanists, we must welcome, surely, this transformation.And we will have to learn about these civilizations.好吧，那么我會怎樣來做結論呢？ 那么，我們應該以怎樣態(tài)度來面對這個呈現在我們面前飛速發(fā)展的世界？ 我認為關于此事，這會有好的方面也會有壞的方面。但首先，我想指出這世界所展現的是一幅積極正面的藍圖。200年來，世界基本上是被人類的一部分人所管轄。這是以歐洲和北美為代表的。新興國家的崛起像中國和印度 它們占世界人口的百分之三十八和其他國家如印度尼西亞和巴西等等，他們代表了在過去200年間最重要的人類活動民主化進程。曾被忽視，沒有發(fā)言權的文明和文化，人們對此不了解，沒聽說過的文明和文化，它們將會在這世界上以與眾不同地 聲音代言它們自身。作為人道主義者，我們必定要歡迎這種轉型。我們還得學習這些文明。

This big ship here was the one sailed in by Zheng He in the early 15th century on his great voyages around the South China Sea, the East China Sea and across the Indian Ocean to East Africa.The little boat in front of it, was the one in which, 80 years later, Christopher Columbus crossed the Atlantic.Or, look carefully at this silk scroll made by Zhu Zhou in 1368.I think they’re playing golf.Christ, the Chinese even invented golf.Welcome to the future.Thank you!這兒的大船是在15世紀早期鄭和下西洋時航行的船，它穿過中國東海，南海然后穿行印度洋到達東非。這前面的小船是80年后，克里斯托弗·哥倫布穿行大西洋的船只。（笑聲）或仔細看看這幅 ZhuZhou朱周（音譯）在1938年創(chuàng)

作的絹軸國畫。我認為他們在打高爾夫。上帝啊，竟然是中國人發(fā)明了高爾夫球。歡迎來到未來。謝謝。

第二篇：TED演講中英對照3

My job is to design, build and study robots that communicate with people.But this story doesn't start with robotics at all, it starts with animation.When I first saw Pixar's “Luxo Jr.,” I was amazed by how much emotion they could put into something as trivial as a desk lamp.I mean, look at them--at the end of this movie, you actually feel something for two pieces of furniture.(Laughter)And I said, I have to learn how to do this.So I made a really bad career decision.And that's what my mom was like when I did it.(Laughter)I left a very cozy tech job in Israel at a nice software company and I moved to New York to study animation.And there I lived in a collapsing apartment building in Harlem with roommates.I'm not using this phrase metaphorically, the ceiling actually collapsed one day in our living room.Whenever they did those news stories about building violations in New York, they would put the report in front of our building.As kind of like a backdrop to show how bad things are.我的工作是設計、構造和研究 那些能夠與人交流的機器人。不過這個故事不是從機器人說起，而是要從動畫說起。當我第一次看到皮克斯的《頑皮跳跳燈》電影時，我驚呆了，一個如此微不足道的臺燈 竟能表現如此多的感情。你看他們啊！電影結尾的時候，你真的開始喜歡上這兩件小小的家具了。（笑聲）我對自己說，我要學會做這樣的東西。所以我做了一個很壞的職業(yè)決策，我做出這個決定的時候，我媽媽就是這樣的。（笑聲）我辭去了在以色列一個軟件公司的 一份非常舒服的技術工作，我搬到了紐約 去學習動畫。在那，我和我的室友住在 哈萊姆一棟即將坍塌的公寓樓里。我沒有夸張，有一天天花板真的塌下來了 就塌在了我們的客廳里。每次報到紐約的違章建筑時，他們都會跑到們的大樓下進行采訪。就好像讓你看看現場有多糟糕一樣。

Anyway, during the day I went to school and at night I would sit and draw frame by frame of pencil animation.And I learned two surprising lessons--one of them was that when you want to arouse emotions, it doesn't matter so much how something looks, it's all in the motion--it's in the timing of how the thing moves.And the second, was something one of our teachers told us.He actually did the weasel in Ice Age.And he said: “As an animator you are not a director, you're an actor.” So, if you want to find the right motion for a character, don't think about it, go use your body to find it--stand in front of a mirror, act it out in front of a camera--whatever you need.And then put it back in your character.言歸正傳，我上學的日日夜夜，我不停地一幅又一幅地用鉛筆畫著畫。我學到了兩個讓我驚訝的東西—— 其中一個是： 當你想要喚起某些情感時，外觀并不算太重要，關鍵是動作——物體運動時，對時間的把握。關鍵是動作——物體運動時，對時間的把握。第二個是我們的一個老師告訴我們的。他正是電影《冰河世紀》的黃鼠狼。他說： ”作為一個動畫制作者，你不是一個導演，而是一個演員?！?所以如果你要為一個角色找到正確的肢體語言，不要想，用你的身體找到它，站在鏡子面前，攝像機前，演出來，無論你需要做什么。然后再把這個動作放在你的角色上。

A year later I found myself at MIT in the robotic life group, it was one of the first groups researching the relationships between humans and robots.And I still had this dream to make an actual, physical Luxo Jr.lamp.But I found that robots didn't move at all in this engaging way that I was used to for my animation studies.Instead, they were all--how should I put it, they were all kind of robotic.(Laughter)And I thought, what if I took whatever I learned in animation school, and used that to design my robotic desk lamp.So I went and designed frame by frame to try to make this robot as graceful and engaging as possible.And here when you see the robot interacting with me on a desktop.And I'm actually redesigning the robot so, unbeknownst to itself, it's kind of digging its own grave by helping me.(Laughter)I wanted it to be less of a mechanical structure giving me light, and more of a helpful, kind of quiet apprentice that's always there when you need it and doesn't really interfere.And when, for example, I'm looking for a battery that I can't find, in a subtle way, it will show me where the battery is.So you can see my confusion here.I'm not an actor.And I want you to notice how the same mechanical structure can at one point, just by the way it moves seem gentle and caring--and in the other case, seem violent and confrontational.And it's the same structure, just the motion is different.Actor: “You want to know something? Well, you want to know something? He was already dead!Just laying there, eyes glazed over!”(Laughter)But, moving in graceful ways is just one building block of this whole structure called human-robot interaction.I was at the time doing my Ph.D., I was working on human robot teamwork;teams of humans and robots working together.I was studying the engineering, the psychology, the philosophy of teamwork.And at the same time I found myself in my own kind of teamwork situation with a good friend of mine who is actually here.And in that situation we can easily imagine robots in the near future being there with us.It was after a Passover seder.We were folding up a lot of folding chairs, and I was amazed at how quickly we found our own rhythm.Everybody did their own part.We didn't have to divide our tasks.We didn't have to communicate verbally about this.It all just happened.And I thought, humans and robots don't look at all like this.When humans and robots interact, it's much more like a chess game.The human does a thing, the robot analyzes whatever the human did, then the robot decides what to do next, plans it and does it.And then the human waits, until it's their turn again.So, it's much more like a chess game and that makes sense because chess is great for mathematicians and computer scientists.It's all about information analysis, decision making and planning.一年以后，我去了麻省理工大學（MIT）的 機器人生命小組，這是最早 開始研究人類和機器人關系的小組之一。我依然懷揣著要造一個 真正的、可觸碰的頑皮跳跳燈的夢想。但是我發(fā)現機器人完全不是 按照我的動畫課程中的那種 引人入勝的方式移動。相反的，他們都—— 該怎么說呢？他們都有點兒機械化。（笑聲）我就想，如果我可以把我在動畫學校學到的東西 應用于設計我的機器人臺燈會怎樣？ 因此我設計了一幅又一幅，試圖讓這個機器人 盡量優(yōu)雅、有吸引力。這里你可以看到這個桌子上的機器人 在跟我互動，我其實是在重新設計這個機器人，而這個機器人完全不知道，它幫我，其實是在自掘墳墓呢。（笑聲）比起把他它做成一個照明的機械，比起把他它做成一個照明的機械，我更想要一個能幫忙的、安靜的學徒，隨時滿足你的需求卻不打擾你。比如，當我要找一個我怎么也 找不到的電池時，它可以巧妙地提醒我電池在哪里。你看到我的困惑了嗎？ 我不是一個演員。我希望你們注意到，同一個機械如何 在前一刻非常溫柔、充滿關懷，在前一刻非常溫柔、充滿關懷，下一刻又顯得非常暴力，有進攻性。一模一樣的結構，改變的僅僅是動作。演員：”你想知道嗎？你真的想知道嗎？ 他已經死了！他就躺在那里，目光呆滯！“（笑聲）但是，以一種優(yōu)雅的方式移動只是這整個 人類機器人互動結構的一塊基石。那時候我正在攻讀我的博士學位，我正在研究人類與機器人的團隊合作，也就是人類和機器人一起合作。我在學習團隊合作的工程學，心理學和哲學。同時，我意識到自己 和我的一個好朋友（他今天也在這里），也碰到了一個團隊合作的情境。在那個情境中，我們很容易想象 不久的將來機器人會和我們在一起。那是在一個逾越節(jié)家宴結束后，我們要收起大量的折疊椅，我驚訝于我們迅速找到了各自的節(jié)奏。每個人都做了自己的那部分，無需分工，無需特意口頭溝通。就這樣發(fā)生了。于是我想，人類和機器人的互動卻完全不是這樣。當人類和機器人互動的時候，就好像他們在下象棋。人類走一步，機器人對此分析一下，然后機器人決定接下來怎么做，計劃好，走下一步。這時候人類就等著，直到輪到他們玩為止。所以，人類和機器人的互動更像下象棋，這很好理解，因為 對數學家和計算機科學家來說，象棋很好，它們都是關于信息分析、決策制定和計劃。

But I wanted my robot to be less of a chess player, and more like a doer that just clicks and works together.So I made my second horrible career choice: I decided to study acting for a semester.I took off from a Ph.D.I went to acting classes.I actually participated in a play, I hope theres no video of that around still.And I got every book I could find about acting, including one from the 19th century that I got from the library.And I was really amazed because my name was the second name on the list--the previous name was in 1889.(Laughter)And this book was kind of waiting for 100 years to be rediscovered for robotics.And this book shows actors how to move every muscle in the body to match every kind of emotion that they want to express.但比起象棋玩家，我更希望我的機器人是一個行動者，但比起象棋玩家，我更希望我的機器人是一個行動者，可以和人類有默契地一起工作。于是我做了我人生中的第二個糟糕的職業(yè)決策： 我決定學習一學期的表演課程。我放下了我的博士課程，去上了表演課。我還參與了一個戲劇，希望現在已經找不到那個視頻了。我找到了每一本關于表演的書，其中包括一本從圖書館里借來的 19世紀的書。我震驚地發(fā)現我的名字是借閱者名單上的第二個，之前的一個名字是1889年。（笑聲）這本書已經躺了100年了，只為了借機器人之名被重新發(fā)現。這本書教演員 如何調動他們身體上的每塊肌肉 來表達他們想要表達的情感。

But the real revelation was when I learned about method acting.It became very popular in the 20th century.And method acting said, you don't have to plan every muscle in your body.Instead you have to use your body to find the right movement.You have to use your sense memory to reconstruct the emotions and kind of think with your body to find the right expression.Improvise, play off yor scene partner.And this came at the same time as I was reading about this trend in cognitive psychology called embodied cognition.Which also talks about the same ideas--We use our bodies to think, we don't just think with our brains and use our bodies to move.but our bodies feed back into our brain to generate the way that we behave.And it was like a lightning bolt.I went back to my office.I wrote this paper--which I never really published called “Acting Lessons for Artificial Intelligence.” And I even took another month to do what was then the first theater play with a human and a robot acting together.That's what you saw before with the actors.And I thought: How can we make an artificial intelligence model--computer, computational model--that will model some of these ideas of improvisation, of taking risks, of taking chances, even of making mistakes.Maybe it can make for better robotic teammates.So I worked for quite a long time on these models and I implemented them on a number of robots.Here you can see a very early example with the robots trying to use this embodied artificial intelligence, to try to match my movements as closely as possible, sort of like a game.Let's look at it.You can see when I psych it out, it gets fooled.And it's a little bit like what you might see actors do when they try to mirror each other to find the right synchrony between them.And then, I did another experiment, and I got people off the street to use the robotic desk lamp, and try out this idea of embodied artificial intelligence.So, I actually used two kinds of brains for the same robot.The robot is the same lamp that you saw, and I put in it two brains.For one half of the people, I put in a brain that's kind of the traditional, calculated robotic brain.It waits for its turn, it analyzes everything, it plans.Let's call it the calculated brain.The other got more the stage actor, risk taker brain.Let's call it the adventurous brain.It sometimes acts without knowing everything it has to know.It sometimes makes mistakes and corrects them.And I had them do this very tedious task that took almost 20 minutes and they had to work together.Somehow simulating like a factory job of repetitively doing the same thing.And what I found was that people actually loved the adventurous robot.And they thought it was more intelligent, more committed, a better member of the team, contributed to the success of the team more.They even called it 'he' and 'she,' whereas people with the calculated brain called it 'it.' And nobody ever called it 'he' or 'she'.When they talked about it after the task with the adventurous brain, they said, “By the end, we were good friends and high-fived mentally.” Whatever that means.(Laughter)Sounds painful.Whereas the people with the calculated brain said it was just like a lazy apprentice.It only did what it was supposed to do and nothing more.Which is almost what people expect robots to do, so I was surprised that people had higher expectations of robots, than what anybody in robotics thought robots should be doing.And in a way, I thought, maybe it's time--just like method acting changed the way people thought about acting in the 19th century, from going from the very calculated, planned way of behaving, to a more intuitive, risk-taking, embodied way of behaving.Maybe it's time for robots to have the same kind of revolution.真正讓我受到啟示的是 方法演技。它在20世紀的時候非常流行。方法演技指出，你不需要安排你的每一塊肌肉，相反，你可以用你的身體找到對的動作。你應該運用你的感覺記憶，去重新建構情感，用你的身體找到對的表情。即興發(fā)揮，根據你的場景搭檔即興表演。這個時候我也正讀到 認知心理學關于具身認知的東西，這也談到同樣的觀點—— 即我們用我們的身體思考，我們并不是用大腦思考用身體表現，而是我們的身體反饋給大腦 并做出相應的動作，這對我好像一道閃電。我馬上回了我的辦公室。我寫了這篇論文，從來也沒發(fā)表過，叫做《人工智能的表演課》。我甚至花了一個月的時間 去做當時第一部由人類和機器人 一起主演的戲劇。你之前看到的演員和機器人的表演就是這部戲劇。當時我就想： 我們怎樣可以做出這樣的人工智能模型—— 計算機、計算機模型等等，它們會即興發(fā)揮、會冒險、甚至會犯錯。它可能會是更好的機器人隊友。因此我花了很多時間去研究這些模型，我還在幾個機器人身上做了試驗。這里你可以看到一個早期的例子，這個機器人試圖運用具身人工智能 來盡量模仿我的動作，就好像一個游戲。我們來看一下。你可以看到我可以糊弄它。有點像你可能看到的演員們 互相模仿對方 只為了找到他們之間的默契。然后，我又做了另外一個實驗，我從大街上拉人來使用這個機器人臺燈，試驗具身人工智能。其實，同樣的機器人我用了兩個大腦，機器人就是你看到的這個臺燈，我給了它兩個大腦。對一半的人，我放入了一個傳統(tǒng)的、機械計算的大腦。它會等，會分析，會計劃，我們暫且稱它為“會計算的大腦”。給另一半人則是那個舞臺演員、愛冒險的大腦，我們暫且稱它為“愛冒險的大腦”，有的時候它在并不知道所有事情的時候行動，有的時候它會犯錯然后去糾正。我讓他們完成一項無比乏味的任務，這個任務要花近20分鐘，他們必須一起合作完成，有點類似在工廠工作，機械地重復一件事情。我發(fā)現人們非常喜歡 那個“愛冒險的機器人”。他們覺得它非常聰明，非常忠心，是一個很好的團隊成員，一起幫助團隊成功。他們甚至稱它為“他”和“她”，而另外那些人稱那個“會計算的機器人”為“它”，沒有人稱它為“他”或“她”。任務完成后，那些與“會冒險的大腦”互動的人說： “最后，我們成了好朋友，還在腦內舉手擊掌了。” 不管那是啥意思……（笑聲）聽上去很…（口齒不清）然而，那些與“會計算的大腦”互動的人 則說“它就像一個懶徒弟，只做最基本的。“ 這基本上和同人對機器人期待一樣，所以我有些驚訝，比起那些機器人研究專家，人們居然對機器人有更高的期望。但從另一個角度，我又想，也許就像方法演技改變了 19世紀人們思考表演的方式一樣，是時間改變這種通過精確計算的 行為方式，而轉向一種更直覺的、冒險的、用身體表現的行為方式。也許類似的 機器人革命時間到了。A few years later, I was at my next research job at Georgia Tech in Atlanta, and I was working in a group dealing with robotic musicians.And I thought, music, that's the perfect place to look at teamwork, coordination, timing, improvisation--and we just got this robot playing marimba.Marimba, for everybody who was like me, it was this huge, wooden xylophone.And, when I was looking at this, I looked at other works in human-robot improvisation--yes, there are other works in human-robot improvisation--and they were also a little bit like a chess game.The human would play, the robot would analyze what was played, would improvise their own part.So, this is what musicians called a call and response interaction, and it also fits very well, robots and artificial intelligence.But I thought, if I use the same ideas I used in the theater play and in the teamwork studies, maybe I can make the robots jam together like a band.Everybody's riffing off each other, nobody is stopping it for a moment.And so, I tried to do the same things, this time with music, where the robot doesn't really know what it's about to play.It just sort of moves its body and uses opportunities to play, And does what my jazz teacher when I was 17 taught me.She said, when you improvise, sometimes you don't know what you're doing and you're still doing it.And so I tried to make a robot that doesn't actually know what it's doing, but it's still doing it.So let's look at a few seconds from this performance.Where the robot listens to the human musician and improvises.And then, look at how the human musician also responds to what the robot is doing, and picking up from its behavior.And at some point can even be surprised by what the robot came up with.(Music)(Applause)幾年后，我在亞特蘭大的喬治理工大學做研究，我在一個研究機器人音樂家的 小組工作。我想，音樂是可以很好的 研究團隊合作、配合、時間分配和即興表演的領域，我們有這個玩馬林巴的機器人。和我一樣對樂器不在行的朋友，馬林巴是 一個巨大的木琴。我看著這個，又看了那些其它的人類和機器人的即興互動，——沒錯，還有其它人和機器人即興互動的項目—— 都差不多也是一個個象棋游戲式的互動。人類走一步，機器人對此分析，然后決定下一步。音樂家們稱其為 呼叫和應答互動，作為機器人和人工智能，這很合適。但是我想，如果我可以運用 戲劇表演和團隊合作中的研究發(fā)現，也許我可以讓這些機器人 組成一個樂隊，每個人都在即興發(fā)揮，沒有人需要停下來。于是這次我嘗試用音樂做試驗，機器人并不知道 它會演奏什么，它就這樣移動它的身體，找機會演奏，做著我17歲時候的爵士老師教我的事情。她說，當你即興表演的時候，有的時候，你并不知道你在做什么，但是你還是繼續(xù)做。于是我嘗試做一個不知道自己在做什么 卻仍然繼續(xù)做的機器人。讓我們來看一下這個表演的一個小片段。機器人聽人類音樂家演奏 然后即興發(fā)揮。接著，看人類音樂家如何 回應機器人的行為，回應機器人的行為，有時甚至被機器人的表現驚訝。（音樂）（掌聲）

Being a musician is not just about making notes, otherwise nobody would ever go see a live show.Musicians also communicate with their bodies, with other band members, with the audience, they use their bodies to express the music.And I thought, we already have a robot musician on stage, why not make it be a full-fledged musician.And I started designing a socially expressive head for the robot.The head does't actually touch the marimba, it just expresses what the music is like.These are some napkin sketches from a bar in Atlanta, that was dangerously located exactly halfway between my lab and my home.(Laughter)So I spent, I would say on average, three to four hours a day there.I think.(Laughter)And I went back to my animation tools and tried to figure out not just what a robotic musician would look like, but especially what a robotic musician would move like.To sort of show that it doesn't like what the other person is playing--and maybe show whatever beat it's feeling at the moment.作為一個音樂家不僅僅是編寫音符，否則沒有人會去看現場表演了。音樂家也用他們的身體交流，和他們的樂隊成員，和觀眾，他們用他們的身體來表現音樂。于是我想，我們已經有一個在舞臺上的機器人音樂家，為什么不把它打造成一個真正的音樂家呢？ 于是我開始為機器人設計一個 可以表現情感的頭部。頭部并不會碰到馬林巴，它只是用來表現音樂是什么樣的。這草圖的紙巾來自亞特蘭大某處一個酒吧，而且酒吧就正好在實驗室和我家的正中間。（笑聲）而且酒吧就正好在實驗室和我家的正中間。（笑聲）我大概平均 每天有3到4個小時的時間在那里，“大概”…（笑聲）我重新拾起了我的動畫工具，試圖想象 不僅僅一個機器人音樂家的樣子，特別是一個機器人音樂家會如何移動它的身體，來告訴人們它不喜歡其他人的演奏，還有它自己當下感覺到的節(jié)奏。還有它自己當下感覺到的節(jié)奏。

So we ended up actually getting the money to build this robot, which was nice.I'm going to show you now the same kind of performance, this time with a socially expressive head.And notice one thing--how the robot is really showing us the beat it's picking up from the human.We're also giving the human a sense that the robot knows what it's doing.And also how it changes the way it moves as soon as it starts its own solo.(Music)Now it's looking at me to make sure I'm listening.(Music)And now look at the final chord of the piece again, and this time the robot communicates with its body when it's busy doing its own thing.And when it's ready to coordinate the final chord with me.(Music)(Applause)幸運的是，我們最終還獲得了一筆 造這樣一個機器人的資金。接下來我給大家看一下同樣的表演 換成一個情感表現頭的效果。注意一點： 請觀察這個機器人如何 根據人類的演奏即興發(fā)揮，也讓人類知道，這個機器人知道它在做什么。還有獨奏開始時，它是如何做出回應的。還有獨奏開始時，它是如何做出回應的。（音樂）這會兒它正看著我確保我在聽。（音樂）我們再看一下這段的最后一部分，現在機器人正在用它的身體進行溝通，當它正忙于做它自己的事情時，忙于準備 跟我一起演奏最后的旋律。（音樂）（掌聲）

Thanks.I hope you see how much this totally not--how much this part of the body that doesn't touch the instrument actually helps with the musical performance.And at some point, we are in Atlanta, so obviously some rapper will come into our lab at some point.And we had this rapper come in and do a little jam with the robot.And here you can see the robot basically responding to the beat and--notice two things.One, how irresistible it is to join the robot while it's moving its head.and you kind of want to move your own head when it does it.And second, even though the rapper is really focused on his iPhone, as soon as the robot turns to him, he turns back.So even though it's just in the periphery of his vision--it's just in the corner of his eye--it's very powerful.And the reason is that we can't ignore physical things moving in our environment.We are wired for that.So, if you have a problem with maybe your partners looking at the iPhone too much or their smartphone too much, you might want to have a robot there to get their attention.(Laughter)(Music)(Applause)謝謝。我希望你能看到 它的頭部不碰到樂器 其實有助于音樂表演！既然我們在亞特蘭大，就不會沒有說唱歌手參與到我們的試驗中來。既然我們在亞特蘭大，就不會沒有說唱歌手參與到我們的試驗中來。這個說唱歌手來了之后，我們讓他和這個機器人一起表演。這里你可以看到這個機器人 對節(jié)奏的回應，請注意兩點。第一，當這個機器人在搖頭晃腦的時候，你是不是也很想加入其中，和它一起晃動你的頭部？ 第二，雖然這個說唱歌手非常專注于它的蘋果手機，當機器人轉向它的時候，他也馬上轉回來。雖然僅僅是在他的視線邊緣—— 他的眼角的余光里，它仍然非常強大。這就是為什么我們不能忽視 我們周邊物體的移動。我們天生會這樣做。所以，如果你的搭檔 很喜歡看它的蘋果手機或智能手機，也許你需要一個機器人 來獲得他們的注意力。（笑聲）（音樂）（掌聲）

Just to introduce the last robot that we've worked on, that came out of something kind of surprising that we found: At some point people didn't care anymore about the robot being so intelligent, and can improvise and listen, and do all these embodied intelligence things that I spent years on developing.They really liked that the robot was enjoying the music.(Laughter)And they didn't say that the robot was moving to the music, they said that the robot was enjoying the music.And we thought, why don't we take this idea, and I designed a new piece of furniture.This time it wasn't a desk lamp;it was a speaker dock.It was one of those things you plug your smartphone in.And I thought, what would happen if your speaker dock didn't just play the music for you, but it would actually enjoy it too.(Laughter)And so again, here are some animation tests from an early stage.(Laughter)And this is what the final product looked like.(“Drop It Like It's Hot”)So, a lot of bobbing head.(Applause)A lot of bobbing heads in the audience, so we can still see robots influence people.And it's not just fun and games.最后再為大家介紹一下 我們最近在打造的一個機器人。說來也奇怪，我們發(fā)現 到了某個階段，人們不再對那些聰明的、會即興表演、會聆聽、會做那些我花了多年研究的身體智能表演的 機器人感興趣了。他們真的很喜歡那個會享受音樂的機器人。（笑聲）他們沒有說這個機器人是隨著音樂扭動身體，而是說這個機器人在享受音樂。于是我們想，為什么不借用這個想法呢，因此我設計了一件新的小家具。這次不是一個臺燈，而是一個揚聲器底座，就是你可以把你的智能手機放上去的那種。于是我想，如果這個揚聲器底座 不僅可以為你放音樂，還可以享受音樂，會怎樣？（笑聲）這是早期的一些動畫嘗試。這是早期的一些動畫嘗試。這是最終的成品的樣子。饒舌音樂 不停的點頭……（掌聲）觀眾那里也有很多人在不停點頭，因此我們可以看到機器人可以影響人。當然這一切不僅僅只是娛樂和游戲。

I think one of the reasons I care so much about robots that use their body to communicate and use their body to move--and I'm going to let you in on a little secret we roboticists are hiding--is that every one of you is going to be living with a robot at some point in their life.Somewhere in your future there's going to be a robot in your life.And if not in yours, then in your children's lives.And I want these robots to be--to be more fluent, more engaging, more graceful than currently they seem to be.And for that I think that maybe robots need to be less like chess players and more like stage actors and more like musicians.Maybe they should be able to take chances and improvise.And maybe they should be able to anticipate what you're about to do.And maybe they need to be able to make mistakes and correct them, because in the end we are human.And maybe as humans, robots that are a little less than perfect are just perfect for us.Thank you.(Applause)我覺得自己非常熱衷研究 那些可以用身體溝通、用身體移動的機器人的一個原因是—— 我告訴你一個只有我們機器人專家知道的秘密—— 我們每一個人在生命的某個階段 都會需要機器人，你未來的某個階段會有個機器人。如果不是你的未來，那么你的孩子的未來。我希望這些機器人 比現在 可以更流暢、更吸引人、更優(yōu)雅。比現在 可以更流暢、更吸引人、更優(yōu)雅。因此，我覺得機器人 不應該是像一個象棋玩家，而應該更像一個舞臺演員或者音樂家。它們應該可以冒險，會即興表演，甚至會預料到你接下來會做什么。它們也應該可以犯錯 并且改正，因為到頭來，我們只是人類。也許對人類而言，不完美的機器人 才是完美的。謝謝！

第三篇：萊溫斯基TED演講 中英對照

The price of shame

主講人：莫妮卡 萊溫斯基

主題：恥辱的代價

You're looking at a woman who was publicly silent for a decade.Obviously, that's changed, but only recently.站在你們面前的是一個在大眾面前沉默了十年之久的女人。當然，現在情況不一樣了，不過這只是最近發(fā)生的事。

It was several months ago that I gave my very first major public talk at the Forbes 30 Under 30 summit:1,500 brilliant people, all under the age of 30.That meant that in 1998, the oldest among the group were only 14, and the youngest, just four.I joked with them that some might only have heard of me from rap songs.Yes, I'm in rap songs.Almost 40 rap songs.幾個月前，我在《福布斯》雜志舉辦的“30歲以下”峰會（Under 30 Summit）上發(fā)表了首次公開演講?，F場1500位才華橫溢的與會者都不到30歲。這意味著1998年，他們中最年長的是14歲，而最年輕的只有4歲。我跟他們開玩笑道，他們中有些人可能只在說唱歌曲里聽到過我的名字。是的，大約有40首說唱歌曲唱過我。

But the night of my speech, a surprising thing happened.At the age of 41, I was hit on by a 27-year-old guy.I know, right? He was charming and I was flattered, and I declined.You know what his unsuccessful pickup line was? He could make me feel 22 again.I realized later that night, I'm probably the only person over 40 who does not want to be 22 again.但是，在我演講當晚，發(fā)生了一件令人吃驚的事——我作為一個41歲的女人，被一個27歲的男孩示愛。我知道，這聽上去不太可能對吧？他很迷人，說了很多恭維我的話，然后我拒絕了他。你知道他為何搭訕失敗嗎？他說，他可以讓我感到又回到了22歲。后來，那晚我意識到，也許我是年過40歲的女人中唯一一個不想重返22歲的人。

At the age of 22, I fell in love with my boss, and at the age of 24, I learned the devastating consequences.Can I see a show of hands of anyone here who didn't make a mistake or do something they regretted at 22? Yep.That's what I thought.So like me, at 22, a few of you may have also taken wrong turns and fallen in love with the wrong person, maybe even your boss.Unlike me, though, your boss probably wasn't the president of the United States of America.Of course, life is full of surprises.Not a day goes by that I'm not reminded of my mistake, and I regret that mistake deeply.22歲時，我愛上了我的老板；24歲的時，我飽受了這場戀愛帶來的災難性的后果?，F場的觀眾們，如果你們在22歲的時候沒有犯過錯，或者沒有做過讓自己后悔的事，請舉起手好嗎？是的，和我想的一樣。與我一樣，22歲時，你們中有一些人也曾走過彎路，愛上了不該愛的人，也許是你們的老板。但與我不同的是，你們的老板可能不會是美國總統(tǒng)。當然，人生充滿驚奇。之后的每一天，我都會想起自己所犯的錯誤，并為之深深感到后悔。

In 1998, after having been swept up into an improbable romance, I was then swept up into the eye of a political, legal and media maelstrom like we had never seen before.Remember, just a few years earlier,news was consumed from just three places: reading a newspaper or magazine, listening to the radio, or watching television.That was it.But that wasn't my fate.Instead, this scandal was brought to you by the digital revolution.That meant we could access all the information we wanted, when we wanted it, anytime, anywhere, and when the story broke in January 1998, it broke online.It was the first time the traditional news was usurped by the Internet for a major news story, a click that reverberated around the world.飽受網絡欺凌之苦 1998年，在卷入一場不可思議的戀情后，我又被卷入了一場前所未有的政治、法律和輿論漩渦的中心。記得嗎？幾年前，新聞一般通過三個途徑傳播：讀報紙雜志、聽廣播、和看電視，僅此而已。但我的命運并不是僅此而已。這樁丑聞是通過數字革命傳播的。這意味著我們可以獲取任何我們需要的信息，不論何時何地。這則新聞在1998年1月爆發(fā)時，它也在互聯(lián)網上火了。這是互聯(lián)網第一次在重大新聞事件報道中超越了傳統(tǒng)媒體。只要輕點一下鼠標，就會在全世界引起反響。

What that meant for me personally was that overnight I went from being a completely private figure to a publicly humiliated one worldwide.I was patient zero of losing a personal reputation on a global scale almost instantaneously.This rush to judgment, enabled by technology, led to mobs of virtual stone-throwers.Granted, it was before social media, but people could still comment online, email stories, and, of course, email cruel jokes.News sources plastered photos of me all over to sell newspapers, banner ads online, and to keep people tuned to the TV.Do you recall a particular image of me, say, wearing a beret? 對我個人而言，這則新聞讓我一夜之間從一個無名小卒變成了全世界人民公開羞辱的對象。我成了第一個經歷在全世界范圍內名譽掃地的“零號病人”。科技是這場草率審判的始作俑者，無數暴民向我投擲石塊。當然，那時還沒有社交媒體，但人們依然可以在網上發(fā)表評論，通過電子郵件傳播新聞和殘酷的玩笑。新聞媒體貼滿了我的照片，借此來兜售報紙，為網頁吸引廣告商，提高電視收視率。記得當時的那張照片嗎？我戴著貝雷帽的照片。

Now, I admit I made mistakes, especially wearing that beret.But the attention and judgment that I received, not the story, but that I personally received, was unprecedented.I was branded as a tramp, tart, slut, whore, bimbo, and, of course, that woman.I was seen by many but actually known by few.And I get it: it was easy to forget that that woman was dimensional, had a soul, and was once unbroken.現在，我承認我犯了錯，特別是不該戴那頂貝雷帽。但是，除了事件本身，我因此受到的關注和審判是前所未有的。我被貼上“淫婦”、“妓女”，“蕩婦”，“婊子”，“蠢女人”的標簽，當然，還有“那個女人”。許多人看到了我，但很少有人真正了解我。對此我表示理解，因為人們很容易忘記“那個女人”也是一個活生生的人，她也有靈魂，她也曾過著平靜的生活。

When this happened to me 17 years ago, there was no name for it.Now we call it cyberbullying and online harassment.Today, I want to share some of my experience with you, talk about how that experience has helped shape my cultural observations, and how I hope my past experience can lead to a change that results in less suffering for others.17年前，對于我經歷的這些遭遇還沒有一個專有名詞?，F在，我們稱之為“網絡欺凌”和“網上騷擾”。今天我要與你們分享一些我的經歷，我想談談那次經歷是如何形成了我的文化觀察，我希望我過去的經歷能夠產生一些改變，減少他人的痛苦。

In 1998, I lost my reputation and my dignity.I lost almost everything, and I almost lost my life.1998年，我失去了名譽和尊嚴。我?guī)缀跏チ怂?，我?guī)缀跏チ宋业娜松?。丑聞爆發(fā)之后，鋪天蓋地都是對此事件的報道。Let me paint a picture for you.It is September of 1998.I'm sitting in a windowless office room inside the Office of the Independent Counsel underneath humming fluorescent lights.I'm listening to the sound of my voice, my voice on surreptitiously taped phone calls that a supposed friend had made the year before.I’m here because I've been legally required to personally authenticate all 20 hours of taped conversation.For the past eight months, the mysterious content of these tapes has hung like the Sword of Damocles over my head.I mean, who can remember what they said a year ago?

讓我來描繪這樣一幅場景：1998年9月的一天，我坐在美國獨立檢察官辦公室一間沒有窗的屋子里，頭頂上的日光燈嗡嗡作響。我正在聽我的錄音，那是一位所謂的朋友偷偷錄下的電話談話。我被依法要求鑒定那20個小時的電話錄音是真實的。在過去的八個月里，這些錄音帶中神秘的內容就像一把懸在我頭頂的達摩克利斯之劍。我的意思是，有誰會記得自己一年前說過的話？ Scared and mortified, I listen, listen as I prattle on about the flotsam and jetsam of the day;listen as I confess my love for the president, and, of course, my heartbreak;listen to my sometimes catty, sometimes churlish, sometimes silly self being cruel, unforgiving, uncouth;listen, deeply, deeply ashamed, to the worst version of myself,a self I don't even recognize.在恐懼和羞愧中，我聽著錄音，聽我閑扯每天發(fā)生的瑣碎之事；聽我坦白對總統(tǒng)的愛慕，當然，還有我的心碎；聽有時尖酸，有時粗魯，有時愚蠢的我是如何冷酷，無情，無理取鬧。我?guī)е钌畹男呃⒙犞莻€最糟糕的我的聲音，糟糕到我自己都不認識了。A few days later, the Starr Report is released to Congress, and all of those tapes and trans, those stolen words, form a part of it.That people can read the trans is horrific enough, but a few weeks later, the audio tapes are aired on TV, and significant portions made available online.The public humiliation was excruciating.Life was almost unbearable.幾天后，斯塔爾報告提交至國會，那些錄音帶和文字記錄，那些被竊取的言語，都是這份報告的一部分。人們能夠讀到這些文字對我來說已經夠恐怖了，但是幾個星期后，那些錄音又在電視上播放，有一些重要的內容還被發(fā)布在網絡上。公開的羞辱讓我飽受折磨。這樣的生活讓我?guī)缀鯚o法忍受。

This was not something that happened with regularity back then in 1998, and by this, I mean the stealing of people's private words, actions，conversations or photos, and then making them public--public without consent, public without context, and public without compassion.在1998年，我所說的這些還并不常見。我指的是竊取他人私下的言語、行動、談話內容和照片，并公之于眾——在未經本人同意，未交待背景的情況下，毫無惻隱之心地將這些內容公之于眾。

Fast forward 12 years to 2010, and now social media has been born.The landscape has sadly become much more populated with instances like mine, whether or not someone actually make a mistake, and now it's for both public and private people.The consequences for some have become dire, very dire.快進到12年后的2010年，社交媒體誕生了?？杀氖?，社交媒體上充斥著更多像我這樣的例子，不管這個當事人是不是真的犯了錯，而且，公眾人物和普羅大眾都深受其害。對于有些人來說，后果是嚴重的，非常嚴重。

I was on the phone with my mom in September of 2010, and we were talking about the news of a young college freshman from Rutgers University named Tyler Clementi.Sweet, sensitive, creative Tyler was secretly webcammed by his roommate while being intimate with another man.When the online world learned of this incident, the ridicule and cyberbullying ignited.A few days later, Tyler jumped from the George Washington Bridge to his death.He was 18.2010年9月的一天，我正在和我的母親通電話，我們在討論一則新聞，關于羅格斯大學的一個名叫泰勒 克萊門蒂的大一新生?？蓯?、敏感、富有創(chuàng)意的克萊門蒂被室友偷拍到和另一個男人有親密關系。當這個視頻在網絡世界曝光后，嘲笑和網絡欺凌的火種被點燃。幾天后，泰勒從喬治華盛頓大橋上縱身跳下。一個年僅18歲的生命就這樣逝去。

My mom was beside herself about what happened to Tyler and his family, and she was gutted with painin a way that I just couldn't quite understand, and then eventually I realized she was reliving 1998, reliving a time when she sat by my bed every night, reliving a time when she made me shower with the bathroom door open, and reliving a time when both of my parents feared that I would be humiliated to death,literally.我母親在講到泰勒和他的家人時情緒有些失控，她所表現出的痛苦讓我并不十分理解。后來，我才終于意識到，她正在重新經歷1998年發(fā)生的一切。重新經歷她每晚坐在我的床頭的時候；重新經歷她要我開著浴室門洗澡的時候，重新經歷她和父親擔心我會因為受到羞辱而自尋短見的時候。真的是這樣。

Today, too many parents haven't had the chance to step in and rescue their loved ones.Too many have learned of their child's suffering and

humiliation after it was too late.今天，太多父母沒有機會及時介入來拯救他們摯愛的孩子。太多的人，當他們獲悉自己的孩子的痛苦和受到的羞辱時，已為時已晚。

Tyler's tragic, senseless death was a turning point for me.It served to recontextualize my experiences, and I then began to look at the world of humiliation and bullying around me and see something different.泰勒悲慘而毫無意義的死亡對我來說是一個轉折點。他讓我開始重新審視我的親身經歷，他讓我開始觀察身邊這個充滿羞辱和欺凌的世界，讓我看到了不同的東西。In 1998, we had no way of knowing where this brave new technology called the Internet would take us.Since then, it has connected people in unimaginable ways, joining lost siblings, saving lives, launching revolutions, but the darkness, cyberbullying, and slut-shaming that I experienced had mushroomed.1998年，沒有人知道這種名叫“因特網”的新技術會把人類帶向何方。自誕生以來，因特網用難以想象的方式將人類聯(lián)系起來。它讓人們找到失散的兄弟姐妹、拯救生命、發(fā)起革命，但是我所遭受的黑暗、網絡欺凌和被稱為“蕩婦”的羞辱也如雨后春筍般瘋長。Every day online, people, especially young people who are not developmentally equipped to handle this, are so abused and humiliated that they can't imagine living to the next day, and some, tragically, don't, and

there's nothing virtual about that.ChildLine, a U.K.nonprofit that's focused on helping young people on various issues,released a staggering statistic late last year: From 2012 to 2013, there was an 87 percent increase in calls and emails related to cyberbullying.A meta-analysis done out of the Netherlands showed that for the first time, cyberbullying was leading to suicidal ideations more significantly than offline bullying.And you know what shocked me, although it shouldn't have, was other research last year that determined humiliation was a more intensely felt emotion than either happiness or even anger.每天，在網絡上都會有人，特別是年輕人被辱罵和羞辱，而他們對此束手無策。這些辱罵和羞辱讓他們想立刻死去。悲劇的是，有些人，真的因此死去。這一點兒也不虛擬。

ChildLine是英國一個致力于幫助年輕人解決各種問題的公益組織。去年年底，該組織公布了一組令人震驚的數據：從2012年到2013年，與網絡欺凌有關的電話和郵件數量增加了87%。一份來自荷蘭的綜合分析首次披露，網絡欺凌比線下欺凌更容易讓人產生自殺的念頭。去年，還有一項研究讓我震驚，盡管我并不該感到震驚。研究顯示，羞辱是比快樂或者生氣更為強烈的情緒。Cruelty to others is nothing new, but online, technologically enhanced shaming is amplified, uncontained, and permanently accessible.殘忍對待他人不是什么新鮮事，但是，在互聯(lián)網上，技術讓羞辱放大，一發(fā)而不可收，并且永遠可以被看到。

The echo of embarrassment used to extend only as far as your family, village, school or community, but now it's the online community too.Millions of people, often anonymously, can stab you with their words, and that's a lot of pain, and there are no perimeters around how many people can publicly observe you and put you in a public stockade.There is a very personal price to public humiliation, and the growth of the Internet has jacked up that price.過去，丑聞最多在你的家庭、村莊、學?；蛘呱鐓^(qū)傳播。但是現在也在網絡社區(qū)流傳。數百萬的網民，經常匿名地惡語相向，這帶來很多痛苦。而且，到底有多少人可以公開地關注你，讓你成為眾矢之的？這是無法計算的。被公開羞辱對個人而言代價很大，而互聯(lián)網的發(fā)展加劇了這種代價。

For nearly two decades now, we have slowly been sowing the seeds of shame and public humiliation in our cultural soil, both on-and offline.Gossip websites, paparazzi, reality programming, politics, news outlets and

sometimes hackers all traffic in shame.It's led to desensitization and a

permissive environment online which lends itself to trolling, invasion of privacy, and cyberbullying.This shift has created what Professor Nicolaus Mills calls a culture of humiliation.近20年來，我們慢慢地在文化的土壤中播下恥辱和公開羞辱的種子，無論是線上還是線下。八卦網站、狗仔隊、真人秀節(jié)目、政治、新聞媒體，有時甚至是黑客都是羞辱的通道。冷酷、放縱的網絡環(huán)境助長了網絡煽動、侵犯個人隱私、和網絡欺凌。這種轉變形成了一種尼古拉斯

米爾斯教授所說的羞辱文化。Consider a few prominent examples just from the past six months alone.Snapchat, the service which is used mainly by younger generationsand claims that its messages only have the lifespan of a few

seconds.You can imagine the range of content that that gets.A third-party app which Snapchatters use to preserve the lifespan of the messages was hacked, and 100,000 personal conversations, photos, and videos were leaked online to now have a lifespan of forever.想想最近六個月發(fā)生的事情。Snapchat是一項主要是年輕人使用的服務，它號稱所有的信息只有幾秒鐘的壽命。你可以想象這些信息會包含哪些內容。Snapchat用戶使用的保存信息的第三方應用被黑客攻擊，近10萬名用戶的私人談話、照片、視頻被泄露到網上。現在，它們可以永久保留了。Jennifer Lawrence and several other actors had their iCloud accounts hacked, and private, intimate, nude photos were plastered across the Internet without their permission.One gossip website had over five million hits for this one story.And what about the Sony Pictures

cyberhacking? The documents which received the most attention were private emails that had maximum public embarrassment value.詹妮弗 勞倫斯和其他幾位演員的iCloud賬戶被攻擊，他們所有私人的、親密的、裸體的照片在未經允許的情況下在互聯(lián)網上鋪天蓋地地傳播。一個八卦網站僅僅因為這一則新聞就獲得了超過500萬的點擊量。索尼影視被黑客攻擊的情況又如何呢？最受關注的文件是那些公開羞辱價值最大的私人電子郵件。

But in this culture of humiliation, there is another kind of price tag attached to public shaming.The price does not measure the cost to the victim, which Tyler and too many others, notably women, minorities,and members of the LGBTQ community have paid, but the price measures the profit of those who prey on them.This invasion of others is a raw material, efficiently and ruthlessly mined, packaged and sold at a profit.但是在這種羞辱文化中，公開羞辱還被貼上了另一種價格標簽。這個價格標簽衡量的并不是受害者付出的代價，比如泰勒、還有其他很多人，特別是婦女，少數群體和同性戀、雙性戀、變性群體(LGBTQ)成員所付出的代價，而是衡量損害他們利益的牟利者的收益。侵入他人領域成了一種原材料，被人以最快的速度無情地挖掘，打包并出售。

A marketplace has emerged where public humiliation is a commodity and shame is an industry.How is the money made? Clicks.The more shame, the more clicks.The more clicks, the more advertising dollars.We're in a dangerous cycle.The more we click on this kind of gossip, the more numb we get to the human lives behind it, and the more numb we get, the more we click.一個市場橫空出世，公開羞辱是商品，恥辱變成了一種產業(yè)?？渴裁促嶅X呢？點擊。恥辱越多，點擊越多。點擊越多，廣告收入就越多。我們身處一個惡性循環(huán)。我們對這類八卦點擊得越多，我們就會對故事背后的當事人越麻木。我們越麻木，就越會去點擊。

All the while, someone is making money off of the back of someone else's suffering.With every click, we make a choice.The more we saturate our culture with public shaming, the more accepted it is, the more we will see behavior like cyberbullying, trolling, some forms of hacking, and online harassment.Why? Because they all have humiliation at their cores.This behavior is a symptom of the culture we've created.Just think about it.與此同時，有些人把自己的利益建立在他人的痛苦之上，每一次點擊，我們都是在做出選擇。我們文化中充斥的公開恥辱越多，它就越容易被接受，我們就會看到越多的網絡欺凌、網絡煽動、某些形式的黑客入侵，和線上騷擾。為什么呢？因為它們的核心都是羞辱。這種行為成為了我們所創(chuàng)造的一種文化病癥。想想吧。

Changing behavior begins with evolving beliefs.We've seen that to be true with racism, homophobia, and plenty of other biases, today and in the past.As we've changed beliefs about same-sex marriage, more people have been offered equal freedoms.When we began valuing sustainability, more people began to recycle.向網絡欺凌說不。改變行為從改變信念開始。不管是現在還是過去，無論是種族歧視、同性戀歧視和其它很多的歧視，都是這樣來消除的。隨著對同性戀結婚觀念的改變，更多人被賦予了平等的自由。隨著對可持續(xù)性的提倡，越來越多的人開始循環(huán)利用。

So as far as our culture of humiliation goes, what we need is a cultural revolution.Public shaming as a blood sport has to stop, and it's time for an intervention on the Internet and in our culture.對于羞辱的文化也應該如此。我們需要文化革命。公開羞辱這種血腥的運動應該終止，是時候對英特網和我們的文化采取干預行動了。

The shift begins with something simple, but it's not easy.We need to return to a long-held value of compassion--compassion and empathy.Online, we've got a compassion deficit, an empathy crisis.Researcher Brené Brown said, and I quote, “Shame can't survive empathy.” Shame cannot survive empathy.I've seen some very dark days in my life, and it was the compassion and empathy from my family, friends, professionals, and sometimes even strangers that saved me.轉變可以從簡單的事開始，不過這也不容易。我們需要回歸人類固有的一種價值，也就是同情心和同理心?；ヂ?lián)網正經歷著同情心匱乏和同理心危機。引用研究者布林 布朗的話來說就是，“羞辱在同理心之下無法存活”。羞辱在同理心之下無法存活。我的人生中有過一些非常黑暗的日子，是來自家人、朋友、專業(yè)人士、甚至是一些陌生人的同情心和同理心拯救了我。

Even empathy from one person can make a difference.The theory of minority influence, proposed by social psychologist Serge Moscovici, says that even in small numbers, when there's consistency over time, change can happen.In the online world, we can foster minority influence by becoming upstanders.To become an upstander means instead of bystander apathy, we can post a positive comment for someone or report a bullying situation.哪怕只有一個人的同情也會產生改變。社會心理學家謝爾蓋 莫斯科維奇提出了小眾影響理論。他說，哪怕是小眾人群，只要能堅持下去，也能做出改變。在網絡世界中，我們可以成為行動派，培養(yǎng)小眾影響力。成為行動派意味著不再袖手旁觀，而是發(fā)表積極評論或是舉報欺凌現象。

Trust me, compassionate comments help abate the negativity.We can also counteract the culture by supporting organizations that deal with these kinds of issues, like the Tyler Clementi Foundation in the U.S., In the U.K., there's Anti-Bullying Pro, and in Australia, there's Project Rockit.相信我，表達同情的評論能夠削弱負面影響。我們還可以通過支持處理這類問題的組織機構來對抗這種羞辱文化。例如，美國有泰勒 克萊門蒂基金，英國有反欺凌項目，澳大利亞有Rockit項目。

We talk a lot about our right to freedom of expression, but we need to talk more about our responsibility to freedom of expression.We all want to be heard, but let's acknowledge the difference between speaking up with intention and speaking up for attention.The Internet is the superhighway for the id, but online, showing empathy to others benefits us all and helps create a safer and better world.We need to communicate online with compassion, consume news with compassion, and click with compassion.Just imagine walking a mile in someone else's headline.I'd like to end on a personal note.關于言論自由的權力我們討論了很多，但我們還應該更多地談談享受言論自由時所承擔的責任。我們都希望自己的聲音被聽到，但是我們要區(qū)分有意圖的發(fā)聲和尋求關注的發(fā)聲。因特網是表達自我的超級高速公路，但是，站在他人角度考慮問題對我們都是有利的，而且能夠幫助創(chuàng)建更安全，更美好的世界。

我們需要懷著同情心在網絡上交流，懷著同情心閱讀新聞，懷著同情心點擊鼠標。試著想象活在別人的新聞頭條里。

In the past nine months, the question I've been asked the most is why.Why now? Why was I sticking my head above the parapet? You can read between the lines in those questions, and the answer has nothing to do with politics.最后我想以個人說明做總結。過去九個月里，我被人問得最多的問題是“為什么”。為什么是現在？為什么要逆流而上？你們應該可以聽出這些問題的言外之意。答案與政治無關。

The top note answer was and is because it's time: time to stop tip-toeing around my past;time to stop living a life of opprobrium;and time to take back my narrative.It's also not just about saving myself.Anyone who is suffering from shame and public humiliation needs to know one thing: You can survive it.I know it's hard.It may not be painless, quick or easy, but you can insist on a different ending to your story.我的答案是，因為是時候了，是時候不再為過去而過得如履薄冰，是時候結束背負罵名的生活，是時候奪回我的話語權了。這不僅僅是為了拯救我自己。任何遭受恥辱和公開羞辱的人，都需要明白一點：你能挺過來。我知道這很難，肯定會伴隨痛苦，肯定不會又快又輕松，但你可以通過你的堅持，書寫一個不同的故事結局。

Have compassion for yourself.We all deserve compassion, and to live both online and off in a more compassionate world.同情自己。我們都值得同情，無論線上還是線下，我們都應該生活在一個更富有同情心的世界。Thank you for listening.謝謝聆聽！

第四篇：ted演講中英對照 拖延癥

TED演講——拖延癥

拖延癥者的思維方式到底是什么樣的？為什么有些人非要到deadline來的時候才知道打起精神做事情？是否存在執(zhí)行力強的人或是說人人都有一定程度的拖延癥？Tim Urban從一個被deadline趕著走的拖延癥者的角度帶你走進拖延癥的神奇思維世界。

中英對照翻譯

So in college, I was a government major, which means I had to write a lot of papers.Now, when a normal student writes a paper, they might spread the work out a little like this.So, you know--you get started maybe a little slowly, but you get enough done in the first week that, with some heavier days later on, everything gets done, things stay civil.And I would want to do that like that.That would be the plan.I would have it all ready to go, but then, actually, the paper would come along, and then I would kind of do this.在大學，我讀的是政府專業(yè)。也就是說，我需要寫很多的論文。一般的學生寫論文時，他們可能會這樣安排：(看圖)你可能開頭會慢一點，但第一周有這些已經足夠。后期再一點點的增加，最后任務完成，非常的有條理。我也想這么做，所以一開始也是這么計劃的。我做了完美的安排(看圖)，但后來，實際上論文任務一直出現，我就只能這樣了(看圖)。

And that would happen every single paper.But then came my 90-page senior thesis, a paper you're supposed to spend a year on.And I knew for a paper like that, my normal work flow was not an option.It was way too big a project.So I planned things out, and I decided I kind of had to go something like this.This is how the year would go.So I'd start off light, and I'd bump it up in the middle months, and then at the end, I would kick it up into high gear just like a little staircase.How hard could it be to walk up the stairs? No big deal, right?

我的每一篇論文都是這種情況，直到我長達90頁的畢業(yè)論文任務，這篇論文理應花一年的時間來做，我也知道這樣的工作，我先前的工作方式是行不通的，這個項目太大，所以我制定了計劃。決定按照這樣的方式工作，這樣來安排我這一年。(看圖)開頭我會輕松一點，中期任務逐漸增加，到最后，我再全力沖刺一下。整體是這種階梯式安排，一層一層走樓梯有多難?所以沒什么大不了的，是吧?

But then, the funniest thing happened.Those first few months? They came and went, and I couldn't quite do stuff.So we had an awesome new revised plan.And then--But then those middle months actually went by, and I didn't really write words, and so we were here.And then two months turned into one month, which turned into two weeks.但后來，好笑的事情出現了，頭幾個月時光匆匆而逝，我還沒有來得及動工，所以我們明智的調整了計劃。然后，中間的幾個月也過去了，我還是一個字也沒有動，眨眼就到了這里，然后兩個月變成了一個月，再變成了2周。

And one day I woke up with three days until the deadline, still not having written a word, and so I did the only thing I could: I wrote 90 pages over 72 hours, pulling not one but two all-nighters--humans are not supposed to pull two all-nighters--sprinted across campus, dove in slow motion, and got it in just at the deadline.一天我醒來，發(fā)現離交稿日期只剩3天了，但我還一個字都沒寫。我別無選擇，只能在接下來的72小時里，連續(xù)通宵兩個晚上趕論文——一般人不應連續(xù)通宵兩個晚上。90頁趕出來后，我飛速沖過校園，像電影中的特寫慢鏡頭一樣，恰好在截止日期前的最后一刻交上。

I thought that was the end of everything.But a week later I get a call, and it's the school.And they say, “Is this Tim Urban?” And I say, “Yeah.” And they say, “We need to talk about your thesis.” And I say, “OK.” And they say, “It's the best one we've ever seen.” That did not happen.It was a very, very bad thesis.I just wanted to enjoy that one moment when all of you thought, “This guy is amazing!” No, no, it was very, very bad.我以為事情就這么完了，但一周后，我接到一個電話，是學校打來的。他們說：“你是Tim Urban嗎?”我說：“是。”他們說：“我們要說一說你的畢業(yè)論文。”我說：“好啊。”他們說：“這是我見過最棒的論文。”……當然不可能。論文非常非常的差勁。我只想享受下你們對我的崇拜，想聽你們說：“這老兄太厲害了?！睕]有，其實寫的非常差勁。

Anyway, today I'm a writer-blogger guy.I write the blog Wait But Why.And a couple of years ago, I decided to write about procrastination.My behavior has always perplexed the non-procrastinators around me, and I wanted to explain to the non-procrastinators of the worldwhat goes on in the heads of procrastinators, and why we are the way we are.不管怎樣，我現在成為了一個博客寫手，經營著“wait but why”這個博客。幾年前，我決定寫寫拖延這件事。我的行為方式總讓身邊非拖延者感到不能理解。我很想對世界上非拖延者的人解釋一下，我們拖延癥患者的腦子是什么樣的，為什么我們會拖延。

Now, I had a hypothesisthat the brains of procrastinators were actually different than the brains of other people.And to test this, I found an MRI lab that actually let me scan both my brain and the brain of a proven non-procrastinator,so I could compare them.I actually brought them here to show you today.I want you to take a look carefully to see if you can notice a difference.I know that if you're not a trained brain expert, it's not that obvious, but just take a look, OK? So here's the brain of a non-procrastinator.Now...here's my brain.首先我假設，拖延癥患者的大腦實際上和其他人的大腦不一樣。為了驗證這一點，我找了家核磁共振實驗室，給我和另一個確定是非拖延癥的人，進行了腦部掃描，我好將二者進行對比，今天我?guī)У浆F場，給大家展示一下。我希望大家仔細觀察，看能不能注意到差異。我知道大家并非專業(yè)的大腦專家，較難看出他們的差異，但大家不妨先看一眼，如何?這張是非拖延者的大腦，這張是我的大腦。

There is a difference.Both brains have a Rational Decision-Maker in them, but the procrastinator's brain also has an Instant Gratification Monkey.Now, what does this mean for the procrastinator? Well, it means everything's fine until this happens.[This is a perfect time to get some work done.] [Nope!] So the Rational Decision-Maker will make the rational decision to do something productive, but the Monkey doesn't like that plan, so he actually takes the wheel, and he says, “Actually, let's read the entire Wikipedia page of the Nancy Kerrigan/ Tonya Harding scandal, because I just remembered that that happened.兩張是有一點不同，兩個大腦都有一個理性決策人，但在拖延癥患者的大腦里，還有一個及時行樂的猴子。那這對拖延癥患者來說意味著什么呢? 這意味著平時沒什么異樣，但一旦發(fā)生了以下的情況，理性的決策人做出理性的決策，要去做一些實際的工作，但猴子不喜歡這個計劃，所以他搶過方向盤，說道：“說實話，我們還是去維基百科上查一查NKTH的丑聞吧?！币驗槲覄傁肫饋磉€發(fā)生過這件事。

Then--Then we're going to go over to the fridge, to see if there's anything new in there since 10 minutes ago.After that, we're going to go on a YouTube spiral that starts with videos of Richard Feynman talking about magnets and ends much, much later with us watching interviews with Justin Bieber's mom.然后我們會去翻冰箱，看看和十分鐘前相比有沒有什么新的東西。然后我們去youtobe看一連串的視頻，從Richard Feynman談論磁鐵開始，一直到很久很久之后看到一個Justin Bieber媽媽的訪談才結束。以上這些事情都得花時間，所以我們今天沒有時間再來工作了。

”All of that's going to take a while, so we're not going to really have room on the schedule for any work today.Sorry!“ Now, what is going on here? The Instant Gratification Monkey does not seem like a guy you want behind the wheel.He lives entirely in the present moment.He has no memory of the past, no knowledge of the future, and he only cares about two things: easy and fun.5:15Now, in the animal world, that works fine.If you're a dog and you spend your whole life doing nothing other than easy and fun things, you're a huge success!

所以，到底發(fā)生了什么?這個及時行樂的猴子并非你，希望是控制方向的人，他完全生活在當下，沒有過去的記憶，也沒有未來的概念。他只關注兩件事情：簡單和開心。在動物界，這兩點完全沒有問題。如果你是一條狗，一輩子只追求一些簡單和快樂的事，那就是巨大的成功了。

And to the Monkey, humans are just another animal species.You have to keep well-slept, well-fed and propagating into the next generation, which in tribal times might have worked OK.But, if you haven't noticed, now we're not in tribal times.We're in an advanced civilization, and the Monkey does not know what that is.Which is why we have another guy in our brain, the Rational Decision-Maker, who gives us the ability to do things no other animal can do.We can visualize the future.We can see the big picture.We can make long-term plans.And he wants to take all of that into account.And he wants to just have us do whatever makes sense to be doing right now.但對猴子來說，人類是另外一個物種，你得正常睡眠、規(guī)律飲食、繁衍后代。在原始部落時代，這也沒太大問題。但你注意到沒有，現在并非原始部落時代，我們生活在一個現代文明社會中，而猴子完全不能理解這是什么意思，這也是為什么我們大腦中會有另外一個，理性的決策者，他使人類有能力做到其他動物無法做到的事情。我們能設想未來，可以從大局出發(fā)，制定長期計劃，他可以把所有這些事考慮在內。希望讓我們做出最合理的事情.Now, sometimes it makes sense to be doing things that are easy and fun, like when you're having dinner or going to bed or enjoying well-earned leisure time.That's why there's an overlap.Sometimes they agree.But other times, it makes much more senseto be doing things that are harder and less pleasant, for the sake of the big picture.And that's when we have a conflict.And for the procrastinator, that conflict tends to end a certain way every time, leaving him spending a lot of time in this orange zone, an easy and fun place that's entirely out of the Makes Sense circle.I call it the Dark Playground.有時，做一些簡單開心的事情是很合理的，比如吃飯睡覺、享受贏得的休閑時光，所以二者也有重疊的部分。有時二者是一致的，但有些時候，從長遠的角度來看，一些更困難不開心的事情，才是合理的事情，所以就出現了沖突。對拖延癥患者來說，每次這種沖突到最后的結果都一樣，都讓他在這片橙色區(qū)域里耗費大量時間，這里很簡單很開心，但完全不在合理圈的范圍內，我將這個區(qū)域稱為黑暗操場。

Now, the Dark Playground is a place that all of you procrastinators out there know very well.It's where leisure activities happen at times when leisure activities are not supposed to be happening.The fun you have in the Dark Playground isn't actually fun, because it's completely unearned, and the air is filled with guilt, dread, anxiety, self-hatred--all of those good procrastinator feelings.And the question is, in this situation, with the Monkey behind the wheel, how does the procrastinator ever get himself over here to this blue zone, a less pleasant place, but where really important things happen?

這個黑暗操場，所有的拖延者患者都應該很熟悉，在這里發(fā)生了許多，本不應該在此時進行的休閑活動。你在黑暗操場獲得的樂趣，實際并不有趣，因為這并非你應得的。這里的空氣充滿了內疚、恐懼、焦慮和自我憎恨——這些都是拖延癥患者常有的情緒。所以問題是，在猴子掌握方向盤的情況下，拖延癥患者如何進入這邊的藍色區(qū)域呢?這里雖然沒有這么舒適，但進行的事情都非常重要。

And they were all writing, saying the same thing: ”I have this problem too." But what struck me was the contrast between the light tone of the post and the heaviness of these emails.These people were writing with intense frustration about what procrastination had done to their lives, about what this Monkey had done to them.And I thought about this, and I said, well, if the procrastinator's system works, then what's going on? Why are all of these people in such a dark place?

他們都在寫同一句話：“我也有這個問題?！钡嬲屛腋械接|動的，是我博客的輕描淡寫，和郵件的沉重文風之間的強烈對比。這些讀者以非常沮喪的語言，告訴我拖延對他們的生活造成了哪些影響，告訴我猴子對他們都做了些什么。我思考了一下，問道，既然拖延癥患者的系統(tǒng)是有效果的，那到底哪不對呢?為什么這些人都置身黑暗之中呢?

Well, it turns out that there's two kinds of procrastination.Everything I've talked about today, the examples I've given, they all have deadlines.And when there's deadlines, the effects of procrastination are contained to the short term because the Panic Monster gets involved.But there's a second kind of procrastination that happens in situations when there is no deadline.So if you wanted a career where you're a self-starter--something in the arts, something entrepreneurial--there's no deadlines on those things at first, because nothing's happening, not until you've gone out and done the hard work to get momentum, get things going.原來，拖延分為兩種，我今天所說的拖延和所舉的例子，都是有截止日期的。一旦有了截止日期，拖延的影響會被限制在一定時期內，因為后期驚慌怪獸會出現，但還有第二種拖延，這種拖延是沒有截止日期的，所以如果你想在一些領域內自學成才——比如學個藝術或者創(chuàng)個業(yè)——這些事情開始都是沒有截止日期的，因為開始不會有什么變化，直到你拼盡全力，辛勤投入，才會有一點起色，你才能看到進展。

There's also all kinds of important things outside of your career that don't involve any deadlines, like seeing your family or exercising and taking care of your health, working on your relationship or getting out of a relationship that isn't working.Now if the procrastinator's only mechanism of doing these hard things is the Panic Monster, that's a problem, because in all of these non-deadline situations, the Panic Monster doesn't show up.He has nothing to wake up for, so the effects of procrastination, they're not contained;they just extend outward forever.除了工作之外，還有很多其他重要的事情，也是沒有截止日期的，比如看望家人、鍛煉身體、保持健康、維系感情，或者從一段不合適的感情中抽身。如果說拖延癥患者處理這些困難的唯一機制，是驚慌怪獸的話，那就有問題了，因為在這些沒有截止日期的情況下，驚慌怪獸是不會現身的，沒有喚醒他的條件，所以這一類拖延的后果是沒有限制的，他們會不斷地肆意延伸。

And it's this long-term kind of procrastination that's much less visible and much less talked about than the funnier, short-term deadline-based kind.It's usually suffered quietly and privately.And it can be the source of a huge amount of long-term unhappiness, and regrets.和有截止日期的好笑的短期拖延相比，這種長時期的拖延，更不易被人察覺，也更少被談論到，他常常在無聲無息中折磨著人們，可以說是大部分長期抑郁和悔恨的根源。

And I thought, that's why those people are emailing, and that's why they're in such a bad place.It's not that they're cramming for some project.It's that long-term procrastination has made them feel like a spectator, at times, in their own lives.The frustration is not that they couldn't achieve their dreams;it's that they weren't even able to start chasing them.我想，這也是為什么這些人會寫信，為什么狀態(tài)這么差的原因吧。他們并非在為某個項目臨時抱佛腳，這種長期拖延使他們有時感覺，自己只是生活的旁觀者，讓他們沮喪的不是他們沒有實現夢想，而是他們甚至還沒有開始追尋夢想。

So I read these emails and I had a little bit of an epiphany--that I don't think non-procrastinators exist.That's right--I think all of you are procrastinators.Now, you might not all be a mess, like some of us, and some of you may have a healthy relationship with deadlines, but remember: the Monkey's sneakiest trick is when the deadlines aren't there.我讀著這些來信，忽然有一種頓悟——我覺得非拖延者是不存在的，沒錯，我認為你們所有人都是拖延者，當然你們可能不像，我們有些人這么混亂。你們有些人可能與截止日期保持著良性的關系。但記住：猴子最狡猾的伎倆，發(fā)生在沒有截止日期的時候。

Now, I want to show you one last thing.I call this a Life Calendar.That's one box for every week of a 90-year life.That's not that many boxes, especially since we've already used a bunch of those.So I think we need to all take a long, hard look at that calendar.We need to think about what we're really procrastinating on, because everyone is procrastinating on something in life.We need to stay aware of the Instant Gratification Monkey.That's a job for all of us.And because there's not that many boxes on there, it's a job that should probably start today.Well, maybe not today, but...You know.Sometime soon.最后我想給大家看一個東西，我稱之為“生命日歷”。這里的每一個格子都代表90年生命中的一周，格子數并不是很多，尤其我們已經用掉了許多。我想我們需要好好花時間，認真看看這個日歷。我們需要想一下，我們真正在拖延的是什么，因為每個人在生命中都有拖延一些東西，我們需要警惕及時行樂的猴子，這是我們所有人的任務。因為這里的格子數并不多，所以或許我們今天就應該行動起來，或許不一定是今天，而是盡快。Thank you.

第五篇：TED演講中英對照1

At every stage of our lives we make decisions that will profoundly influence the lives of the people we're going to become, and then when we become those people, we're not always thrilled with the decisions we made.So young people pay good money to get tattoos removed that teenagers paid good money to get.Middle-aged people rushed to divorce people who young adults rushed to marry.Older adults work hard to lose what middle-aged adults worked hard to gain.On and on and on.The question is, as a psychologist, that fascinates me is, why do we make decisions that our future selves so often regret? 在我們生命的每個階段，我們都會做出一些決定，這些決定會深刻影響未來我們自己的生活，當我們成為未來的自己時，我們并不總是對過去做過的決定感到高興。所以年輕人花很多錢洗去當還是青少年時花了很多錢做上的紋身。中年人急著跟年輕時迫不及待想結婚的人離婚。老年人很努力的揮霍著作為中年人時不停工作所賺的錢。如此沒完沒了。作為一個心理學家，讓我感興趣的問題是，為什么我們會做出讓自己將來常常后悔的決定？

Now, I think one of the reasons--I'll try to convince you today — is that we have a fundamental misconception about the power of time.Every one of you knows that the rate of change slows over the human lifespan, that your children seem to change by the minute but your parents seem to change by the year.But what is the name of this magical point in life where change suddenly goes from a gallop to a crawl? Is it teenage years? Is it middle age? Is it old age? The answer, it turns out, for most people, is now, wherever now happens to be.What I want to convince you today is that all of us are walking around with an illusion, an illusion that history, our personal history, has just come to an end, that we have just recently become the people that we were always meant to be and will be for the rest of our lives.我認為其中一個原因——而我今天想說服你們的——就是我們對時間的力量有個基本的錯誤概念。你們每個人都知道變化的速度隨著人的年齡增長不斷放慢，孩子們好像每分鐘都有變化，而父母們的變化則要慢得多。那么生命中這個讓變化突然間從飛速變得緩慢的神奇轉折點應該叫什么呢？是青少年時期嗎？是中年時期嗎？是老年階段嗎？其實對大多數人來說，答案是，現在，無論現在發(fā)生在什么。今天我想讓大家明白的是，我們所有人都在圍繞著一種錯覺生活，這種錯覺就是，我們每個人的過去，都已經結束了，我們已經成為了我們應該成為的那種人，在余下的生命中也都會如此。

Let me give you some data to back up that claim.So here's a study of change in people's personal values over time.Here's three values.Everybody here holds all of them, but you probably know that as you grow, as you age, the balance of these values shifts.So how does it do so? Well, we asked thousands of people.We asked half of them to predict for us how much their values would change in the next 10 years, and the others to tell us how much their values had changed in the last 10 years.And this enabled us to do a really interesting kind of analysis, because it allowed us to compare the predictions of people, say, 18 years old, to the reports of people who were 28, and to do that kind of analysis throughout the lifespan.我想給你們展示一些數據來支持這個觀點。這是一項關于人們的個人價值觀隨時間變化的研究。這里有3種價值觀。每個人的生活都與這三個價值觀相關，但是你們可能知道，隨著你們慢慢長大，變老，這三個價值觀的平衡點會不斷變化。到底是怎么回事呢？我們詢問了數千人。我們讓他們當中一半的人預測了一下在未來10年中，他們的價值觀會發(fā)生多大的改變，讓另一半人告訴我們在過去的10年中，他們的價值觀發(fā)生了多大的變化。這項調查可以讓我們做一個很有趣的分析，因為它可以讓我們將大約18歲左右的人的預測同大約28歲左右的人的答案相比較，這項分析可以貫穿人的一生。

Here's what we found.First of all, you are right, change does slow down as we age, but second, you're wrong, because it doesn't slow nearly as much as we think.At every age, from 18 to 68 in our data set, people vastly underestimated how much change they would experience over the next 10 years.We call this the “end of history” illusion.To give you an idea of the magnitude of this effect, you can connect these two lines, and what you see here is that 18-year-olds anticipate changing only as much as 50-year-olds actually do.這是我們的發(fā)現。首先，你們是對的，隨著我們年齡的增長，變化會減緩。第二，你們錯了，因為這種變化并不像我們想象的那么慢。在我們的數據庫從18歲到68歲的每一個年齡段中，人們大大的低估了在未來的10年他們會經歷多少變化。我們把這叫做“歷史終止”錯覺。為了讓你們了解這種影響有多大，你們可以把這兩條線連接起來，你們現在看到的是18歲的人群預期的改變僅僅和50歲的人群實際經歷的一樣。

Now it's not just values.It's all sorts of other things.For example, personality.Many of you know that psychologists now claim that there are five fundamental dimensions of personality: neuroticism, openness to experience, agreeableness, extraversion, and conscientiousness.Again, we asked people how much they expected to change over the next 10 years, and also how much they had changed over the last 10 years, and what we found, well, you're going to get used to seeing this diagram over and over, because once again the rate of change does slow as we age, but at every age, people underestimate how much their personalities will change in the next decade.現在不僅僅是價值觀了。其他的方面都也有變化。比如說，人格。你們當中的很多人知道現在心理學家們認為人格可以分為五個基本維度：神經質性，經驗汲取度，協(xié)調性，外向性和道德感?；氐皆瓉淼脑掝}，我們問人們他們期待未來的10年中自己會有多大的變化，以及他們在過去的10年中發(fā)生了多少變化，我們發(fā)現了，你們會習慣不斷地看到這個圖表，因為又一次，變化速率隨著我們的年齡增長減慢了。但是在每一個年齡階段，人們都低估了在未來的十年中他們的人格會發(fā)生多大的改變。

And it isn't just ephemeral things like values and personality.You can ask people about their likes and dislikes, their basic preferences.For example, name your best friend, your favorite kind of vacation, what's your favorite hobby, what's your favorite kind of music.People can name these things.We ask half of them to tell us, “Do you think that that will change over the next 10 years?” and half of them to tell us, “Did that change over the last 10 years?” And what we find, well, you've seen it twice now, and here it is again: people predict that the friend they have now is the friend they'll have in 10 years, the vacation they most enjoy now is the one they'll enjoy in 10 years, and yet, people who are 10 years older all say, “Eh, you know, that's really changed.” 而且不光是像價值觀和人格這樣的臨時性的特質。你們可以問問人們關于他們喜好和厭惡的事，他們基本的偏好。比如說，說出你最好朋友的名字，你最喜歡什么樣的假期，你最大的愛好是什么，你最喜歡什么樣的音樂。人們可以說出這些事情。我們讓他們當中的一半人告訴我們，“你認為這在未來10年內會改變嗎？”讓另一半告訴我們，“這個在過去十年內變化了嗎？”我們的發(fā)現是，嗯，這個圖你們已經看過2次了，再展示一次：人們推測他們現在的朋友在未來10年中還會是他們的朋友，他們喜歡的度假之地在未來10年內還會是他們喜歡的地方，然而，年長10歲的人都會說：“嗯，你知道，這確實不一樣了?！?/p>

Does any of this matter? Is this just a form of mis-prediction that doesn't have consequences? No, it matters quite a bit, and I'll give you an example of why.It bedevils our decision-making in important ways.Bring to mind right now for yourself your favorite musician today and your favorite musician 10 years ago.I put mine up on the screen to help you along.Now we asked people to predict for us, to tell us how much money they would pay right now to see their current favorite musician perform in concert 10 years from now, and on average, people said they would pay 129 dollars for that ticket.And yet, when we asked them how much they would pay to see the person who was their favorite 10 years ago perform today, they say only 80 dollars.Now, in a perfectly rational world, these should be the same number, but we overpay for the opportunity to indulge our current preferences because we overestimate their stability.這有什么關系嗎？這只是一種并不會有什么后果的錯誤的預測嗎？不，這有很大的關系，我會舉例告訴你們?yōu)槭裁?。它在很多重要的方面困擾著我們做決定。現在想想你們此時此刻最喜歡的音樂人，還有10年前你們最喜歡的音樂人。我把我的答案放在大屏幕上作為提示?，F在我們讓人們預測一下，告訴我們他們現在愿意付多少錢來參加他們現在最喜歡的音樂人從現在起10年后的音樂會，平均來講，人們會說他們會付129美元買票。然而，當我們問他們愿意付多少錢去看他們10年前喜歡的人現在的演出，他們說只有80塊。那么，在一個完全理性的世界里，這兩個數字應該是相同的，但是我們?yōu)槌两诋斍跋埠弥械臋C會付了更多的錢，因為我們高估了它們的持久性。

Why does this happen? We're not entirely sure, but it probably has to do with the ease of remembering versus the difficulty of imagining.Most of us can remember who we were 10 years ago, but we find it hard to imagine who we're going to be, and then we mistakenly think that because it's hard to imagine, it's not likely to happen.Sorry, when people say “I can't imagine that,” they're usually talking about their own lack of imagination, and not about the unlikelihood of the event that they're describing.為什么會發(fā)生這樣的變化呢？我們也不是很確定，不過這可能與記憶的消逝和想象的難度相關。我們中的大多數人都能記得10年前的我們是什么樣子，但是要想像我們會成為什么樣的人就困難了，然后我們會錯誤地認為因為很難想象，就不太可能會發(fā)生。很遺憾，當人們說“我可想象不出來”，他們通常是在表達他們缺乏想象力，而不是他們所描述的不可能發(fā)生的事情。

The bottom line is, time is a powerful force.It transforms our preferences.It reshapes our values.It alters our personalities.We seem to appreciate this fact, but only in retrospect.Only when we look backwards do we realize how much change happens in a decade.It's as if, for most of us, the present is a magic time.It's a watershed on the timeline.It's the moment at which we finally become ourselves.Human beings are works in progress that mistakenly think they're finished.The person you are right now is as transient, as fleeting and as temporary as all the people you've ever been.The one constant in our life is change.總而言之，時間是一種強大的力量。它改變了我們的喜好。它重塑了我們的價值觀。它改變了我們的人格。我們似乎會感激這個事實，但是只在回想過去的時候。只有在我們回首過去的時候我們才會認識到在過去的十年里發(fā)生了多么大的變化。好像，對我們大多數人來說，當前是個有魔力的時刻。它是時間軸上的分水嶺。它是一個使我們最終成為我們自己的時刻。人類還處在發(fā)展變化的過程中，卻錯誤地以為他們不會發(fā)生任何改變了?，F在的你只是處于過渡中，轉瞬即逝，暫時的的狀態(tài)而已，就像所有那些過去的你。在我們的生命中唯一不變的就是，變化。

Thank you.