第一篇：什么是藝術(shù)-演講稿中英文

什么是藝術(shù)： What is art?

藝術(shù)是什么？也許有許多人會(huì)回答：藝術(shù)是音樂、美術(shù)等等。但我的回答卻很簡(jiǎn)單，藝術(shù)是一種美。藝術(shù)通?？偸鞘指哐哦豢杉暗模鋵?shí)它可以是一首歌、一次展覽、一段經(jīng)歷……有藝術(shù)的生活就有歡樂，就有美。作為一個(gè)初出茅廬的學(xué)生要談藝術(shù)，似乎有點(diǎn)過于高調(diào)，但鑒于自己對(duì)于藝術(shù)的熱愛不免在這里扯談一番。藝術(shù)，在我們90后的眼中到底是什么？

What is art? Maybe most people will say: art, is music, painting and so on.But my answer is very simple, art is a kind of beauty.Art is usually very elegant and unreachable, in fact it can be a song, a show, an experience......with the artistic life,there is joy, there is beauty.As a fledgling student,it seems to be a little too high-profile to talk about art, but in view of my love for the arts leads me to talk something of art here.What is art in our post 90s eyes?

從中學(xué)到大學(xué)再到現(xiàn)在的研究生，就我而言學(xué)習(xí)藝術(shù)已經(jīng)有了一段時(shí)日，藝術(shù)的一些觀念也已經(jīng)開始有一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)萌芽，但是現(xiàn)在莫名的有些迷茫。我不知道在金錢橫沖直轉(zhuǎn)的沖刷下，真正的藝術(shù)到底還剩下幾成。前一段時(shí)間，到一些畫室客串了一下。被顏料和碳灰侵染的白墻上貼滿了所謂的好畫，臨近藝考的他們似乎信心百倍。和他們交談一番后，心中不免有些失落。偌大的瀟湘竟是些生產(chǎn)機(jī)器的工廠，教育模式完全以考試為目的，看到此景，怎能不讓人哀嘆神傷。憶想當(dāng)年，我們湘楚大地盛產(chǎn)文人騷客，不乏一些文藝風(fēng)范，而現(xiàn)在在他們眼中藝術(shù)竟成了應(yīng)考落地的康莊大道，藝術(shù)修養(yǎng)和思維完全被拋擲腦后。這簡(jiǎn)直是對(duì)藝術(shù)的一種褻瀆。假若不是真心熱愛這門學(xué)問，又何必學(xué)人用此媚雅。藝術(shù)本應(yīng)當(dāng)是有內(nèi)心的意念而畫，而不是單純的為了畫畫而畫，藝術(shù)本生就是讓人在其中享受的過程，并非讓藝術(shù)來牽著你的鼻子走，那樣你只是媚雅途中的一個(gè)渺小的奴隸。藝術(shù)應(yīng)當(dāng)你自己才是主體，要為自己而畫。真正的高手能夠與每一個(gè)觀賞者進(jìn)行心靈交流。

From middle school to university to graduate now, I have been studying art for a long time and begin to have some initial understanding of art, but i feel some inexplicable confused now.I don't know how much the real art will left in this materialistic society.Some time ago, i take a part-time job in a art studio.On the wall which full of pigment and carbon ash full covered by the so-called good painting, the students seemed to be very confident for the coming art exam.But after talk with them, i feel a little loss.In such a huge area like Xiaoxiang, the education modes only focus on the examination, what is the difference between them and the machine factory?When we remind of history, in the same land, it famous for abundant scholars, poets and artists.Compare with what we see now, art only aimed for passing the examination in their eyes, what a pity!It is a desecration of art.If you do not really love art, why you pretend to be artsy-craftsy? Art is coming from your emotion mind and heart experience, it not means you paint only for painting.Art is a process for people to enjoy, not to make them to be slaves on the way to artsy-craftsy.The principle part should be yourself in art processing, you paint for yourself.The real artistcan communicate in soul with each of the visitors.我跟藝術(shù)的關(guān)系：My relationship with art:

從高中起就在和藝術(shù)打交道，現(xiàn)在我想談?wù)勎腋囆g(shù)的關(guān)系，藝術(shù)，我不知道它這兩個(gè)字的背后藏著什么樣的魔力，以至于我從小對(duì)它充滿了憧憬。在懵懂時(shí)分，我就羨慕那些從事藝術(shù)方面的人們，因?yàn)閺乃麄兊男袨榕e止和談吐裝飾中我發(fā)現(xiàn)了生活原來可以不用這么矜持。盡情地張揚(yáng)自己的個(gè)性才是暢快淋漓的生活方式。當(dāng)我在中學(xué)踏入藝術(shù)的大門之時(shí)，班上的同學(xué)都用羨慕的眼光把我叫做藝術(shù)生。在他們的瞳孔里，似乎藝術(shù)生的藝術(shù)天賦都比他們好，他們都想從每一個(gè)學(xué)畫的人那討幾張畫來，幻想這以后他們出名后這畫可以頓時(shí)使自己價(jià)值倍增。現(xiàn)在想來這是多么的幼稚好笑。而藝術(shù)生在老師眼里好像都是些不羈的學(xué)子。成績(jī)不好了便想去尋找這種“旁門左道”。我的入門藝術(shù)就是在這樣的環(huán)境中開始的。就這樣一步一步的走到了研究生階段，有人說一個(gè)藝術(shù)生科研是為了什么，又有人會(huì)問，女孩子上那么久的學(xué)、讀那么多的書，最終不還是要回一座平凡的城，打一份平凡的工，嫁作人婦，洗衣煮飯，相夫教子，何苦折騰？我想，我們的堅(jiān)持是為了，就算最終跌入繁瑣，洗盡鉛華，同樣的工作，卻有不一樣的心境，同樣的家庭，卻有不一樣的情調(diào)，同樣的后代，卻有不一樣的素養(yǎng)。

Since high school i begin to received professional training in art.Now I want to say something of my relationship with art.I don't know what kind of magic behind art, made me full of longing since i was a kid.I admire those people who engaged in art, because from their manners and conversation I fell life can not be so restrained.The most carefree lifestyle is to enjoy the publicity of their personality freely.WhenI entered the gate of the art in the middle school, my classmates called me “art students”with envy.In their eyes that seems to be the art students’ talent are better than them.They all want to collect a couple of paintings from every students who is learning painting.They dreamed to earn more money when the painter becomes famous one day.How naive and funny!Meanwhile, in the teachers eyes, most art students seemedunruly.They choose art only because they can not get good test result.I started my art life under such environment and stepped into graduate now.People will ask what does art students research for? Others will doubt, although girls paid more time to study, they will finally come back to the small city, get a normally work, married a normally man, and then do housework just as other common girls without such abundant study experience.In my mind, we stick to what we interest, although in the same work, we will have different spirit, similar family,different sentiment, similar later generations, will have different comprehensive qualities.我的專業(yè)方向是視覺傳達(dá)，我想能在我手下創(chuàng)作出好的設(shè)計(jì)，能讓我于藝術(shù)拉的更近，我的理想是當(dāng)一名平面設(shè)計(jì)師除了課堂學(xué)習(xí)外，平時(shí)要更多時(shí)間自學(xué)平面設(shè)計(jì)，文學(xué)素養(yǎng)，美學(xué)思維，尤其要把幾個(gè)主要的平面設(shè)計(jì)軟件弄精通。我要開始有意識(shí)地培養(yǎng)自己的創(chuàng)意能力，看有關(guān)創(chuàng)意思維的書、學(xué)習(xí)優(yōu)秀的平面設(shè)計(jì)作品，更重要的是我開始從生活中尋找靈感：每做一件事時(shí)，我都會(huì)聯(lián)想到是否可以用到我的創(chuàng)作中去。國(guó)內(nèi)平面設(shè)計(jì)的整體水平不高，我覺得自己還需要更扎實(shí)的學(xué)習(xí)、接觸國(guó)際水準(zhǔn)的平面設(shè)計(jì)，我要學(xué)習(xí)國(guó)好的作品、好的思想方能獲得更大的成功。中外結(jié)合是關(guān)鍵。國(guó)外的平面設(shè)計(jì)很發(fā)達(dá)，因此一定要充分學(xué)習(xí)他們的技巧，尤其是創(chuàng)意。同時(shí)，也不能盲目照搬和模仿，而是要在學(xué)習(xí)的基礎(chǔ)上融會(huì)中國(guó)的傳統(tǒng)文化所以，在中國(guó)，最好的作品一定是具有中國(guó)傳統(tǒng)文化的底蘊(yùn)。我知道，苦練內(nèi)功是第一，好的平面設(shè)計(jì)師需要的是綜合的素質(zhì)，繪畫以及會(huì)使用電腦軟件只是最基礎(chǔ)的技能。因此想成為一名優(yōu)秀的平面設(shè)計(jì)師，一定要有不斷學(xué)習(xí)的習(xí)慣，要有追求創(chuàng)新的原動(dòng)力。內(nèi)功還沒練到家就追求經(jīng)濟(jì)利益和社會(huì)影響最多曇花一現(xiàn)，難以取得真正的成就。以前我總覺得任何事情都可以靠后天的努力來彌補(bǔ)，但現(xiàn)在不得不承認(rèn)天分其實(shí)十分重要。好的設(shè)計(jì)師不僅需要有想法、有創(chuàng)意，還要有高度的概括、總結(jié)能力及抽象思維能力，可以迅速歸納出問題的本質(zhì)。這些不是通過短期的訓(xùn)練可以做到的。有天分：思維活躍、在交流中經(jīng)常迸出思想的火花，有很多好的idea，時(shí)常記錄自己的靈感。

My professional direction is the visual communication, I believe i can create many good design, and that will bring me closer and closer with art.My dream is to be a graphic designer.In addition to classroom learning, i will spend more time on self-study.Like graphic design, literary quality, aesthetic thought, especially to master some major graphic design software.I will cultivate my creative thinkingability by readingrelated books and learning good graphic design works.The more important is that I start to find inspiration from daily life.I will think whether can be used to my design when i do something.The domestic design level is not as high as international level.So i should be learn more international good design works and thoughts to improve my own ability to be success.Combination is the key.That means to combine internationals’ skills and thoughts with Chinese traditional culture.So in China, certainly the best work must be full of Chinese traditional culture.I know, the most important is hard skills.A good graphic designer is in need of comprehensive quality, painting and computer software using is only the most basic skills.So if you want to be a good graphic designer, you must have the habit of continuous learning and the motivation to pursue innovation.It must be failed finally if only pursuit economic benefit and social impact without enough hard skills.I used to always feel that anything can be acquired to get in return, but now i has to admit that talent is very important.Good designers not only need to have creative ideas, but also have a high degree of generalization, summarizing ability and abstract thinking ability, the essence can quickly be summarized.All of these can not achieve through short-term training.It needs talent: active thinking, often burst out the spark of thought during conversation, full of good idea and often record their inspiration.沒有人說努力就會(huì)成功，但總有人說：不努力就會(huì)平凡。我想，大概努力沒有什么了不起，努力是正常的生活狀態(tài)。許多努力的終點(diǎn)，就是好好地——平凡。也許，大多努力，不過是幫助我們把平凡的日子，過得稍微順暢舒心一點(diǎn)。讓我們，做個(gè)更好的——普通人。這幾年在與藝術(shù)的接觸中，從中學(xué)，大學(xué)，在到研究生，我并沒有成為什么“藝術(shù)大師”也并沒有對(duì)人生對(duì)生活有著什么樣的獨(dú)特見解，我只是想讓自己堅(jiān)持當(dāng)初拿起畫筆那一刻心中的夢(mèng)想，讓我今后的人生有所追求，追求一種藝術(shù)的生活。我愛藝術(shù)，這話說起來冠冕堂皇，卻是發(fā)自我內(nèi)心的真實(shí)想法，因?yàn)樗囆g(shù)我能成為一名研究生，也是因?yàn)樗囆g(shù)我能與他人擁有不一樣的生活，也是因?yàn)樗囆g(shù)，我認(rèn)識(shí)了一群好朋友，他們與我有著相似的生活，經(jīng)歷，追求，這就使得我們有更多的話題可以聊，使得我們有了更深厚的友誼！

No one said that efforts will be successful, but always some people say that no effort will be ordinary.I think, efforts are normal living condition.Many efforts just for ordinary in the end.Perhaps, most effortshelp us to live a better and more comfortable life.Let’s become a better ordinary person.During the dealing with art from high school, university to graduate, I did not become Art Master yet, and also did not have any kind of unique understanding of life.I just want to insist on the initial dream once i picked up the paintbrush and make my life have a pursuit of art.I love art, it is my heart true thoughts.I can become a graduate student because of art, and also because of art I can have a different life with others.In the meantime, i made a group of good friends because of it, they have similar life experiences and pursuit with me, which makes us have more to talk about and keep our profound friendship!

藝術(shù)給了我一段不一樣的人生，感謝藝術(shù)！

Art has given me a different life, thanks to art!

第二篇：中英文演講稿

中英文演講稿

Lovely students and your parents, Good afternoon!As an English teacher in the Distance Education, it’s my great honor to be here today to share my English-learning experience with you.At first, I want to say that the basic attitude towards English-learning should be right.Since English is a language, which can not be learned well in a short period of time, it needs your patience and persistence.I hope you never give up!Secondly, believe yourself!Just believe you can do it!You guys can learn Chinese so well although it’s one of the most difficult languages in the world.You are clever enough to learn English, which is made up of only 26 letters.Dare to talk in English, no matter how many mistakes you will make.Don’t be afraid of making mistakes, just like your learning how to walk.Finally, put down your mother’s cellphone, don’t look up the unfamiliar words while you are reading or doing homework, just following your feel to train your language sense.Leave the unfamiliar words after you finished all your homework.Look them up and write down their usage in your personal notebook.This really helps to enlarge your vocabulary.OK, that’s all I want to say, thank you for your attention!

尊敬的各位家長(zhǎng)，可愛的同學(xué)們：

大家下午好！我是你們已經(jīng)知道或者并不知道的秦翠，作為遠(yuǎn)方教育紅安總校的一名英語老師，今天非常高興同時(shí)也很榮幸的站在這里和大家一起分享英語學(xué)習(xí)的個(gè)人拙見。

首先，我想說的是沉住氣，擺好心態(tài)，因?yàn)檎Z言的學(xué)習(xí)從來不可能一蹴而就，英語也不例外，學(xué)好它需要的是你的堅(jiān)持不懈。那么，是不是說我們就學(xué)不好英語，是不是就認(rèn)定英語很難呢？在這之前，我想問大家?guī)讉€(gè)問題：第一，你們說漢語說了多少年了？有沒有人覺得平時(shí)跟你們家人、朋友、同學(xué)說話是一件很困難的事？沒有吧！第二，漢字有幾種結(jié)構(gòu)？有多少個(gè)偏旁部首？它有上下結(jié)構(gòu)，左右結(jié)構(gòu)，半包圍和全包圍結(jié)構(gòu)，還有無數(shù)個(gè)偏旁部首，對(duì)不對(duì)？那么，大家知不知道你們用得如此得心應(yīng)手的漢語其實(shí)是世界上最難的語言之一，這么難的東西你們可以學(xué)的這么好，為什么沒有信心學(xué)好只有只有26個(gè)字母的英語呢？你們當(dāng)中隨便一個(gè)人丟到國(guó)外去，不出一年就可以說一口流利的外語，為什么？因?yàn)橛幸粋€(gè)語言的大環(huán)境。不知道在座的很多上課不開口下課更不開口的學(xué)生們你們聽出了什么？請(qǐng)你們張開金口，說英語，大聲的說，不怕出錯(cuò)不怕出丑，誰不是摔了無數(shù)次才學(xué)會(huì)走路的？難道你們要因?yàn)榕滤ざ粚W(xué)走路被爸媽抱到幾十歲過一輩子嗎？這個(gè)丑就更大了哦！所以，同學(xué)們，相信自己可以，你就可以！

然后，我想問一下在座的各位同學(xué)有多少是一邊做題一邊查生詞？如果你們覺得這樣可以學(xué)到東西，不好意思，大錯(cuò)特錯(cuò)！這樣只會(huì)讓你們的時(shí)間付出得沒有任何價(jià)值。不管你在做題的時(shí)候碰到多少生詞，麻煩大家忍住，不要去查，就憑著感覺做，時(shí)間長(zhǎng)了，隨便一個(gè)題目給你，一讀答案就出來了，這就是傳說中的語感！那是不是說生詞不用查呢？當(dāng)然要查，但是是在你做完所有的題目以后再去查，而且是用詞典不是用媽媽的手機(jī)，而且的而且，你要有一個(gè)專用的單詞本作為課外詞匯的拓展資料。我就不信，這樣堅(jiān)持一兩年你會(huì)學(xué)不好英語？

今天要說的就是這些，希望對(duì)大家有所幫助。最后祝同學(xué)們學(xué)習(xí)進(jìn)步，每天開心！家長(zhǎng)們心想事成，萬事如意！謝謝大家！

第三篇：中英文演講稿的格式

1)開始時(shí)對(duì)聽眾的稱呼語 最常用的是 Ladies and gentlemen，也可根據(jù)不同情況，選用 Fellow students, Distinguished guests, Mr Chairman, Honorable Judges(評(píng)委)等等。

2)提出論題 由于演講的時(shí)間限制，必須開門見山，提出論題。提出論題的方法有各種各樣，但最生動(dòng)，最能引起注意的是用舉例法。比如：你要呼吁大家關(guān)心貧窮地區(qū)的孩子，你可以用親眼看到的或者收集到的那些貧窮孩子多么需要幫助的實(shí)例開始。另外，用具體的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)也是一個(gè)有效的引出論題的方法，比如：你要談遵守交通規(guī)則的話題，你可以從舉一系列有關(guān)車輛、車禍等的數(shù)據(jù)開始。

3)論證 對(duì)提出的論題，不可主觀地妄下結(jié)論，而要進(jìn)行客觀的論證。這是演講中最需要下功夫的部分。關(guān)鍵是要把道理講清楚。常見的論證方法有舉例法、因果法、對(duì)比法等等，可參見英語議論文的有關(guān)章節(jié)。

4)結(jié)論 結(jié)論要簡(jiǎn)明扼要(以給聽眾留下深刻印象。

5)結(jié)尾 結(jié)尾要簡(jiǎn)潔，不要拉拉扯扯，說個(gè)沒完。特別是不要受漢語影響，說些類似“準(zhǔn)備不足，請(qǐng)諒解”，“請(qǐng)批評(píng)指正”這樣的廢話。最普通的結(jié)尾就是：Thank you very much for your attention

式： 1.頂格寫稱謂語(如：親愛的老師)

2.下一行空兩格寫問候(如：大家好)

3.正文 4.結(jié)尾(如：謝謝大家)

寫法：

1、內(nèi)容上的現(xiàn)實(shí)性

演講稿是為了說明一定的觀點(diǎn)和態(tài)度的。這個(gè)觀點(diǎn)和態(tài)度一定要與現(xiàn)實(shí)生活緊密相關(guān)。它討論的應(yīng)該是現(xiàn)實(shí)生活中存在的并為人們所關(guān)心的問題。它的觀點(diǎn)要來自身邊的生活或?qū)W習(xí)，材料也是如此。它得是真實(shí)可信，是為了解決身邊的問題而提出和討論的。

2、情感上的說服性

演講的目的和作用就在于打動(dòng)聽眾，使聽者對(duì)講話者的觀點(diǎn)或態(tài)度產(chǎn)生認(rèn)可或同情。演講稿作為這種具有特定目的的講話稿，一定要具有說服力和感染力。很多著名的政治家都是很好的演講者，他們往往借肋于自己出色的演講，為自己的政治斗爭(zhēng)鋪路。

3、特定情景性

演講稿是為演講服務(wù)的，不同的演講有不同的目的、情緒，有不同的場(chǎng)合和不同的聽眾，這些構(gòu)成演講的情景，演講稿的寫作要與這些特定情景相適應(yīng)。

4、口語化

演講稿的最終目的是用于講話，所以，它是有聲語言，是書面化的口語。因此，演講稿要“上口”、“入耳”，它一方面是把口頭語言變?yōu)闀嬲Z言，即化聲音為文字，起到規(guī)范文字、有助演講的作用;另一方面，演講稿要把較為正規(guī)嚴(yán)肅的書面語言轉(zhuǎn)化為易聽易明的口語，以便演講。同時(shí)，演講稿的語言應(yīng)適應(yīng)演講人的講話習(xí)慣，同演講者的自然講話節(jié)奏一致。

演講稿對(duì)于演講都有哪些作用呢?主要體現(xiàn)在以下幾方面：(1)整理演講者的思路、提示演講的內(nèi)容、限定演講的速度;(2)引導(dǎo)聽眾，使聽眾能更好地理解演講的內(nèi)容;(3)通過對(duì)語言的推究提高語言的表現(xiàn)力，增強(qiáng)語言的感染力。

由于演講稿具有以上的特征和作用，它在寫作方法上也有一定方法可循。

第四篇：亞太經(jīng)濟(jì)演講稿中英文

首先，感謝東亞研究所邀請(qǐng)我出席這個(gè)各界知名人士和專家學(xué)者聚集一堂的論壇。

東亞研究所對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)和政治發(fā)展的獨(dú)立與嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)研究，讓它成為一個(gè)重要和卓有聲譽(yù)的研究中心。王賡武教授所提到，自吳慶瑞博士擔(dān)任研究所前身所長(zhǎng)時(shí)便貫徹研究工作的精神，也讓我印象深刻——嘗試了解中國(guó)與其面對(duì)挑戰(zhàn)的復(fù)雜性的謙遜精神。我們應(yīng)該以同樣的精神來觀察中國(guó)未來的走向。

中國(guó)的發(fā)展對(duì)世界有重大影響。王教授剛才談到了美國(guó)和中國(guó)即將出現(xiàn)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人更換。我相信在11月8日發(fā)生的事，會(huì)比在11月6日發(fā)生的事來得重要。

世界現(xiàn)在比以往更依賴中國(guó)及其成功的經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型；也更依賴中國(guó)的需求、中國(guó)作為投資來源、以及依賴中國(guó)來加強(qiáng)世界不同經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)域的互補(bǔ)性。最后，世界也更依賴中國(guó)來保持一個(gè)穩(wěn)定的國(guó)際秩序。

中國(guó)正經(jīng)歷兩個(gè)主要轉(zhuǎn)捩點(diǎn)，或者更準(zhǔn)確的說，是―拐點(diǎn)‖（inflextion points）。首先，是其經(jīng)濟(jì)的結(jié)構(gòu)和驅(qū)動(dòng)力；其次，是它對(duì)世界的影響力及領(lǐng)導(dǎo)世界的角色。在國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型與在世界舞臺(tái)所扮演角色的轉(zhuǎn)變，中國(guó)皆面對(duì)重大轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)。

從剩余勞動(dòng)力到勞動(dòng)力萎縮

首先，在國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型上，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正從―舊常態(tài)‖過渡到―新常態(tài)‖。―舊常態(tài)‖著重于資本累積，國(guó)有企業(yè)扮演主導(dǎo)角色，是個(gè)家庭變相津貼生產(chǎn)者的體系?，F(xiàn)在，它正逐步轉(zhuǎn)移到一個(gè)更具競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力、更依賴消費(fèi)為成長(zhǎng)驅(qū)動(dòng)力、及更注重資本效益的―新常態(tài)‖。簡(jiǎn)而言之，是從注重資本累積轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)樽⒅刭Y本效益的模式。然而，這些改變要通過整體的復(fù)雜體制改革才能實(shí)現(xiàn)。

利用成長(zhǎng)會(huì)計(jì)（growth accounting）來分析中國(guó)增長(zhǎng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，對(duì)中國(guó)過去30年的崛起已有很好的了解。使用的估計(jì)方式雖然不同，但一些基本的結(jié)論卻很清楚。

首先，大規(guī)模從低生產(chǎn)力農(nóng)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移到產(chǎn)業(yè)和其他城市化活動(dòng)的勞動(dòng)力，給經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)帶來巨大貢獻(xiàn)。這是30年來增長(zhǎng)的主要來源，就像日本、韓國(guó)和臺(tái)灣早幾十年前，和歐洲在二戰(zhàn)前與二戰(zhàn)后的情況一樣。

其次，在工業(yè)化過程起步慢讓中國(guó)得到不少優(yōu)勢(shì)，可以很快地跟上全球最佳實(shí)踐經(jīng)驗(yàn)。從世界各地注入的科技和點(diǎn)子，是促進(jìn)增長(zhǎng)的動(dòng)力，讓中國(guó)的―全要素生產(chǎn)力‖（Total Factor Productivity）取得非比尋常的快速增長(zhǎng)。

第三，中國(guó)是享有優(yōu)勢(shì)，但也只是在有限期間——經(jīng)濟(jì)自由化的頭20年——以人口來看。在過去10年放緩前，它每年取得3％的快速勞動(dòng)力增長(zhǎng)。整體的勞動(dòng)力增長(zhǎng)，加速了勞動(dòng)力從很低生產(chǎn)力活動(dòng)轉(zhuǎn)移到中等生產(chǎn)力及生產(chǎn)力更高的活動(dòng)。

勞動(dòng)力過剩的階段就快過去了。中國(guó)沿岸省份在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展上肯定已到了經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家所說的路易斯轉(zhuǎn)捩點(diǎn)（Lewisian turning point）:它們?cè)僖蚕硎懿坏搅畠r(jià)外來民工，而工資也急劇上升。中部和東北部省份還沒有到達(dá)這個(gè)階段。但大概不出10年，整個(gè)中國(guó)將發(fā)現(xiàn)依賴廉價(jià)勞工再也不是其工業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力和增長(zhǎng)的基礎(chǔ)。

此外，從一兩年后開始，按絕對(duì)價(jià)值計(jì)算，中國(guó)的整體勞動(dòng)力將在接下來數(shù)十年逐漸萎縮。同日本、韓國(guó)與臺(tái)灣的發(fā)展經(jīng)驗(yàn)比較，中國(guó)比它們更早來到這個(gè)階段。

中國(guó)目前的人均收入，大概是日本1980年及韓國(guó)和臺(tái)灣約1990年的水平。這些經(jīng)濟(jì)體在達(dá)到中國(guó)今天的人均收入水平后，勞動(dòng)力還持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)了10到20年。日本的人口正在萎縮，但臺(tái)灣和韓國(guó)的勞動(dòng)力仍有小增長(zhǎng)，就像新加坡和香港。中國(guó)即將經(jīng)歷的勞動(dòng)力萎縮將是獨(dú)特的，因?yàn)樗允莻€(gè)發(fā)展中國(guó)家。這也同諸如印度等發(fā)展中國(guó)家不一樣，印度的勞動(dòng)力在未來10年甚至是更長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間里，將持續(xù)顯著增長(zhǎng)。

這對(duì)中國(guó)來說不一定是不利的。但卻意味著必須更重視資本的有效利用，和提高每個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域的生產(chǎn)力。為年長(zhǎng)者建立一個(gè)健全的社會(huì)安全網(wǎng)也變成一項(xiàng)緊迫的工作。

中國(guó)有提高生產(chǎn)力的巨大空間，這是我們對(duì)中國(guó)增長(zhǎng)前景應(yīng)該保持樂觀的基本原因。中國(guó)的生產(chǎn)力只是美國(guó)的約15％－18％，或亞洲新興工業(yè)化經(jīng)濟(jì)體的平均約25％，有不少空間來追上——透過新科技、新點(diǎn)子和國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)更有效的資源分配。同日本及新興工業(yè)化經(jīng)濟(jì)體比較，中國(guó)勞工的人均資本存量（capital stock per worker）也還處于低水平，有大量的空間提高生產(chǎn)力和收入。

人力資源發(fā)展：從數(shù)量到質(zhì)量

這需要經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)領(lǐng)域策略的改變，并為重要的國(guó)內(nèi)改革增添動(dòng)力。首先，在人力資源上，中國(guó)正從講究數(shù)量過渡到重視素質(zhì)。在提供普遍的基本和中學(xué)后教育，中國(guó)是個(gè)成功的例子，尤其是同印度和其他大多數(shù)巨大的發(fā)展中區(qū)域相比。

但其教育體系質(zhì)量參差不齊。就像世界銀行所指出，尋求教育質(zhì)量的平等，比尋求教育機(jī)會(huì)的平等，是中國(guó)教育制度未來更大的挑戰(zhàn)。

確保畢業(yè)生受雇也是個(gè)棘手問題。中國(guó)培養(yǎng)了許多畢業(yè)生。中長(zhǎng)期來說，畢業(yè)生可能供過于求。從數(shù)據(jù)來看，沒有受雇的年輕畢業(yè)生超過9％，尤其是美術(shù)和數(shù)學(xué)系的畢業(yè)生。對(duì)理論過于注重，對(duì)同市場(chǎng)相關(guān)的技能不夠重視是個(gè)問題。

更開放的經(jīng)濟(jì)

第二項(xiàng)挑戰(zhàn)是通過貿(mào)易和投資，維持并加快中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的開放度。這在全球重新平衡的討論中并沒有受到足夠的關(guān)注。我們?cè)谡務(wù)撁绹?guó)減少經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目赤字及中國(guó)減少盈余時(shí)，解決方案不應(yīng)該是中國(guó)把焦點(diǎn)放在內(nèi)需，也就是從出口導(dǎo)向轉(zhuǎn)為促進(jìn)內(nèi)需。更關(guān)鍵的增長(zhǎng)解決方案是加速全球化，進(jìn)一步開放貿(mào)易。按中國(guó)的情況并考慮到其發(fā)展階段，若我們要減少盈余，增加進(jìn)口是比減少出口更好的方法。

這是重要的，因?yàn)槲覀兊目紤]必須超越整體的不平衡。中國(guó)及東亞發(fā)展的動(dòng)力，來自投入世界最先進(jìn)市場(chǎng)所引入的點(diǎn)子和科技。符合最先進(jìn)市場(chǎng)買家指定需求的外國(guó)直接投資及出口，是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的主要?jiǎng)恿Α?/p>

以像中國(guó)這樣平均生產(chǎn)力仍然偏低的國(guó)家來說，優(yōu)先考量應(yīng)該依舊是通過雙向的外貿(mào)和投資，盡量輸入點(diǎn)子、最佳實(shí)踐經(jīng)驗(yàn)及科技。開放對(duì)長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)很重要。出口和入口總流量的增長(zhǎng)——也同樣或甚至比貿(mào)易逆差更重要。

過渡到以市場(chǎng)為根本的融資

要更有效的使用資本，中國(guó)的第三個(gè)挑戰(zhàn)，是在經(jīng)濟(jì)市場(chǎng)化取得進(jìn)展。不論是以任何對(duì)比分析來看，中國(guó)都是從計(jì)劃經(jīng)濟(jì)過渡到市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的明顯成功例子。和其他新興區(qū)域不同，中國(guó)自70年代末開始，便幾乎每五年就提出并堅(jiān)持新的改革。在實(shí)行上雖然取得不同程度的成功，但它每五年便有重大的經(jīng)濟(jì)改革——印度、俄羅斯及其他大新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體如巴西都沒有這樣做。

盡管增長(zhǎng)有許多不符合效益的地方，中國(guó)的國(guó)有企業(yè)在市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的轉(zhuǎn)型上，表現(xiàn)遠(yuǎn)比俄羅斯寡頭出色。嚴(yán)重的不平衡存在，但這是沒有導(dǎo)致重大混亂的增長(zhǎng)故事，本身已是一項(xiàng)成就。

中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)要進(jìn)一步市場(chǎng)化，作為更有效率和平衡經(jīng)濟(jì)的基礎(chǔ)，并改善家庭的福利，還得在未來進(jìn)行重大改革。

在未來五年甚至是更長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間里，中國(guó)把重點(diǎn)放在這些改革。改革由國(guó)有企業(yè)開始。中國(guó)必須擺脫受到―指示‖的投資，反映投資的真正成本，來激勵(lì)國(guó)有企業(yè)以真實(shí)的盈利率為決策的基礎(chǔ)。與這相關(guān)的還有許多改變——股利政策改革、法律和會(huì)計(jì)上的改變及規(guī)制改革。

市場(chǎng)化的另一個(gè)重要領(lǐng)域是金融界。中國(guó)希望建立更具競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力、更健全及更多元化的金融領(lǐng)域，來補(bǔ)助發(fā)展更平衡及由生產(chǎn)力驅(qū)動(dòng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的努力。金融領(lǐng)域改革有五個(gè)緊密相連的因素——它們之間的關(guān)系顯示了金融領(lǐng)域改革的復(fù)雜性。

首先是把信貸制度從非正式的方式往正式的方式轉(zhuǎn)移，前者是對(duì)金融穩(wěn)定的威脅。這包括讓正式信貸制度扮演更重要的角色，讓國(guó)有企業(yè)以外的私企和家庭也可以受惠，尤其是更方便中小企業(yè)向銀行借貸。銀行從受指示的借貸轉(zhuǎn)移到以盈利驅(qū)動(dòng)的借貸過程中，必須建立有力的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理機(jī)制。

第二是發(fā)展資本市場(chǎng)，包括股票和債券市場(chǎng)，讓金融系統(tǒng)更多元化，不過度依賴銀行信貸。像中國(guó)這么大的轉(zhuǎn)型經(jīng)濟(jì)體，有效管理資本市場(chǎng)是項(xiàng)重大挑戰(zhàn)。市場(chǎng)必須逐漸由經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面驅(qū)動(dòng)，而不只是投機(jī)情緒。如果成功了，資本市場(chǎng)可以反映籌集資金的真正成本，為大型企業(yè)提供有益的紀(jì)律。

第三是把利率市場(chǎng)化。中國(guó)人民銀行采取了重要的措施，有秩序地過渡到由市場(chǎng)力量決定的利率。這可以讓家庭和個(gè)人的儲(chǔ)蓄賺取更高利息，也讓借貸者更清楚實(shí)際的借貸成本。

第四是匯率。我相信，在接下來的5年－10年里，中國(guó)及大部分東亞地區(qū)逐步提高名義和實(shí)際匯率是有利的。為什么呢？因?yàn)檫@同把國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)往高增值方向提升是一致的，尤其是在激勵(lì)國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)的中國(guó)。這同讓匯率自由浮動(dòng)以對(duì)短期資本流作出反應(yīng)的呼吁是不同的。這樣做是不明智的，也沒有適當(dāng)?shù)慕?jīng)濟(jì)理由。中長(zhǎng)期逐步提高實(shí)際匯率可以幫助支持國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型，對(duì)中國(guó)是有利的。與其讓國(guó)內(nèi)的通脹增速比世界其他地方快，倒不如提高實(shí)際匯率。

第五是持續(xù)逐步開放資本賬戶，鼓勵(lì)雙向投資。這也應(yīng)該是漸進(jìn)的以免造成金融體系的不穩(wěn)定，但它是接下來5年－10年的重點(diǎn)考慮。

這五個(gè)改革元素缺一不可，也必須以同樣的速度進(jìn)行，尤其是不可能讓對(duì)外開放的步伐遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過國(guó)內(nèi)改革的速度而不影響金融穩(wěn)定。以過去五年來看，我得說中國(guó)把這極端復(fù)雜和平衡的工作處理得很好。然而，這過程中會(huì)有贏家和輸家，既得利益也會(huì)抗拒未來的改變。這顯示為什么經(jīng)濟(jì)改革是項(xiàng)艱巨的政治工作，既需要技巧，也需要政治決心。

從―供應(yīng)震撼‖到―需求震撼‖

現(xiàn)在，讓我談?wù)勚袊?guó)對(duì)世界的影響力及領(lǐng)導(dǎo)世界的角色。

我們知道中國(guó)未來會(huì)是個(gè)重要需求來源。發(fā)達(dá)世界將經(jīng)歷長(zhǎng)時(shí)間的去杠桿化，增長(zhǎng)也因此可能低于潛能。另外一個(gè)考慮中國(guó)角色的方式是，中國(guó)在過去30年給世界經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來了經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家所稱的巨大―供應(yīng)震撼‖，未來卻不只是―供應(yīng)震撼‖，還會(huì)是個(gè)―需求震撼‖。

―供應(yīng)震撼‖是因?yàn)閿?shù)目龐大的廉價(jià)但相對(duì)有效率的工人進(jìn)入了全球市場(chǎng)體制。當(dāng)工資日益增高及中國(guó)中產(chǎn)階級(jí)消費(fèi)快速增長(zhǎng)時(shí)，便會(huì)為全球的生產(chǎn)者提供一個(gè)主要的新最終需求來源。在中國(guó)繼續(xù)開放其經(jīng)濟(jì)的同時(shí)，這個(gè)―需求震撼‖的規(guī)模會(huì)很大。

但―供應(yīng)震撼‖卻還沒有過去，而是改變了方式。中國(guó)正向價(jià)值鏈上游攀升，以往在價(jià)值曲線非常低端的―需求震撼‖，正轉(zhuǎn)向中等水平工作，甚至一些如研發(fā)領(lǐng)域的高水平工作。因此，一系列的中產(chǎn)階級(jí)工作，包括生產(chǎn)和其他白領(lǐng)行業(yè)，現(xiàn)在將面對(duì)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體及亞洲新興工業(yè)化經(jīng)濟(jì)體的中等水平工作，將面對(duì)來自中國(guó)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。這是中國(guó)對(duì)全球勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)沖擊的重大改變，雖然它也為世界提供了需求。

中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)演化的同時(shí)，會(huì)給其他發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體的其他低成本、勞工密集生產(chǎn)者帶來許多機(jī)會(huì)。正如經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家林毅夫在最近的一篇文章指出，中國(guó)一小部分勞工密集制造業(yè)向海外轉(zhuǎn)移，就會(huì)給這些發(fā)展中國(guó)家?guī)砭薮蠛锰帯１热?，如?％的中國(guó)成衣業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移到非洲，非洲國(guó)家的成衣出口將猛增50％。中國(guó)工資的上揚(yáng)，將導(dǎo)致亞洲和其他發(fā)展中區(qū)域新的勞動(dòng)分工。

全球領(lǐng)導(dǎo)能發(fā)揮作用嗎？

然而，中國(guó)同全球關(guān)系的―拐點(diǎn)‖不限于經(jīng)濟(jì)，也關(guān)系到它在維持穩(wěn)定國(guó)際秩序的角色與責(zé)任。我們正進(jìn)入全球領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的獨(dú)特階段。這不是突然的改變，而是趨向一個(gè)新局勢(shì)的漸進(jìn)發(fā)展。它很可能是個(gè)多極化的世界，并出現(xiàn)一個(gè)仍然是發(fā)展中國(guó)家的全球領(lǐng)袖。中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展意味著它必須在共同領(lǐng)導(dǎo)世界上扮演重要角色。中國(guó)已成為世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體，并將在數(shù)年后成為世界最大經(jīng)濟(jì)體。然而，就人均收入而言，它并不是個(gè)富裕的國(guó)家。以發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家水平來看，其大部分人口很可能繼續(xù)處于貧窮狀況。這是前所未有的情況。

中國(guó)上一次在經(jīng)濟(jì)、政治和軍事上達(dá)到高峰，是在明朝末期。據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)歷史學(xué)家安格斯·麥迪森（Angus Maddison）估計(jì)，中國(guó)1500年的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）約占全球GDP的四分之一。但那是世界經(jīng)濟(jì)還沒有全球化的時(shí)代，中國(guó)也選擇不主導(dǎo)世界。

作為大部分人口仍不富裕的發(fā)展中國(guó)家，中國(guó)登上世界舞臺(tái)扮演舉足輕重的角色，對(duì)有效的全球領(lǐng)導(dǎo)有什么意義呢？這對(duì)提供全球公共品來說尤為重要：維持自由與開放的貿(mào)易及穩(wěn)定的國(guó)際貨幣與金融體系——或經(jīng)濟(jì)公共品；維持世界安全與確保核不擴(kuò)散——或戰(zhàn)略公共品；維持干凈的全球環(huán)境和緩解氣候變化——或環(huán)境公共品。

這是專家學(xué)者進(jìn)行研究的重要領(lǐng)域。

中國(guó)已經(jīng)是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融領(lǐng)域中一把重要的聲音。它不光是國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的第三大份額國(guó)和一個(gè)主要的資源貢獻(xiàn)者，在布雷頓森林（Bretton Woods）體系也占據(jù)主要職位——著名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家林毅夫四年前成為世界銀行首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，其任期今年較早時(shí)屆滿；中國(guó)人民銀行前副行長(zhǎng)朱民在去年中出任IMF副總干事。這些多邊機(jī)制的管理必須繼續(xù)演變，以反映新全球現(xiàn)實(shí)，包括中國(guó)與其他新興市場(chǎng)新增的實(shí)力。此外，這也讓我們可以建立更大的決心和能力，應(yīng)對(duì)相互聯(lián)系的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的挑戰(zhàn)。

不過，中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)特質(zhì)，特別是它的人均收入不高，以及它仍面對(duì)顯著的內(nèi)部失衡問題，必將影響它如何扮演全球領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的角色。面對(duì)全球課題時(shí)，它可能非常關(guān)注課題如何影響其國(guó)內(nèi)脆弱性和國(guó)家所面對(duì)的挑戰(zhàn)。

然而，在這個(gè)新的階段，我們還是有更多的理由保持樂觀而不是感到悲觀。首先，中國(guó)有進(jìn)行國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)改革的決心。其次，中國(guó)對(duì)其悠久的歷史和文化有信心，包括源自根深蒂固的社會(huì)和諧發(fā)展原則的信心。這種對(duì)自身文化的信心，可以轉(zhuǎn)化為發(fā)展軟實(shí)力的資產(chǎn)。第三，中國(guó)一直強(qiáng)調(diào)它將選擇和平崛起。

這三個(gè)因素增加了中國(guó)在多極化全球體制扮演正面和負(fù)責(zé)任角色的可能性。一個(gè)強(qiáng)大但依然支持開放的經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融秩序、和平、穩(wěn)定及國(guó)際法治的中國(guó)，將在未來數(shù)十年為一個(gè)更美好的世界作出重大貢獻(xiàn)。

世界期望中國(guó)成功克服雙重挑戰(zhàn)。既完成內(nèi)部改革，也適應(yīng)作為全球領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者所須挑起的責(zé)任。世界這么依賴單個(gè)國(guó)家能否成功適應(yīng)作為全球領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者的要求和責(zé)任，以及這么依賴這個(gè)國(guó)家能否在經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治領(lǐng)導(dǎo)舞臺(tái)上成功被接納，是前所未有的。

葉琦保譯

（以下為英文原文：）

China’s two turning points: how they will shape a new

global future Transcript of Keynote Address by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Finance Tharman Shanmugaratnam at the Public Forum to Commemorate the East Asia Institute’s 15th Anniversary, 24 October 2012, 9am at Regent Hotel

Prof Wang Gungwu，Prof Zheng Yongnian，Prof John Wong，Distinguished speakers and guests，1.First of all, thank you for giving me the opportunity of being here at this illustrious gathering of dignitaries and scholars.2.The East Asian Institute has established itself as a leading and well reputed centre, for independent and robust research on economic, social and political developments in China.I have been struck too by the spirit which Prof Wang Gungwu mentioned as having instructed such research from the days of Dr Goh Keng Swee at the EAI‘s predecessor institutions – that spirit of humility in seeking to understand China and the immense complexity of the challenges it faces.It is the same spirit that should inform us as we observe China going forward.3.What happens in China is going to matter a lot to all of us, in the rest of the world.Prof Wang was just talking about the impending leadership changes in the United States and in China.I suspect that what happens on November 8 is going to matter more than what happens on November 6.4.The world is more dependent than ever on China and its successful economic transformation.More dependent on Chinese demand, more dependent on China as a source of investment and more dependent on China to strengthen the complementarity between different economic regions in the world.Finally, more dependent than ever on China to preserve a stable international order.5.China is going through two major turning points, or to be more precise, inflexion points.First, in the structure and drivers of its economy;and second, with respect to its impact on the world and role in global leadership.In both these regards, its domestic economic transformation and the evolution of its role in the global stage, China is going through major inflexion points.From surplus labour to a declining labour force

6.Let me make some observations on each of these two inflexion points.First, with regards to its domestic economic transformation.China is in the process of transition from the ?old normal‘ to a ?new normal‘ in its economy.The old normal was focused on capital accumulation, with a dominant role for the state-owned sector, and a system where households implicitly subsidise producers.It is now moving, in steps, to a new normal based on greater competition, greater reliance on consumption as a driver of growth and a much greater focus on capital efficiency.In short, it is a shift from a model that is focused on capital accumulation to one focused on capital efficiency.However, these changes can only come about through a whole set of complex institutional reforms.7.China‘s rise in the last three decades is now well-understood amongst economists who use ?growth accounting‘ to decompose its growth.Although the technical estimates vary, some basic conclusions come through very clearly.First, there has been a massive contribution to economic growth arising from the large scale transfer of labour from low productivity agriculture to industries and other urbanised activities.That has been the major contributor to growth over the three decades, just like it was in Japan, Korea and Taiwan a few decades earlier and in Europe before and after the war.8.Second, there has been considerable advantage in China having started off later in the process of industrialisation, and being able to catch up quickly with global best practices.The infusion of technology and ideas from the rest of the world has been a motive force for growth.It has contributed China‘s unusually rapid increases in Total Factor Productivity.9.Third, China has been advantaged but only for a limited periodby demographics.It had rapid labour force growth of about three per cent per year, before that slowed down over the last decade.Overall labour force growth compounded the shift of labour from very low productivity activities into middle and now increasingly into higher productivity activities.10.The phase of surplus labour is fast being exhausted.Certainly the coastal provinces in China have reached what economists call the ?Lewisian turning point‘ in economic development: they no longer have access to cheap migrant labour, and wages are going up very rapidly.The central and northeastern provinces have not reached that point yet.But it is a finite number of years, probably no more than a decade, before China as a whole will find that reliance on low cost labour is no longer its basis for industrial competitiveness and growth.11.Importantly too, China will see its overall labour force gradually decline in absolute terms over the next few decades, starting a year or two from now.It has reached that stage earlier than Japan, Korea and Taiwan did in their own development experience.12.China‘s per capita income today is around the level in Japan in 1980, Korea and Taiwan around 1990.These economies saw continued labour force growth for a couple of decades, one to two decades, after that period.Japan is now in a stage of population decline, but Taiwan and Korea continue to see small growth in their labour forces just like Singapore and Hong Kong.China‘s coming experience of decline in its labour force will be unique in that it is still developing.It is also very different in this regard from other emerging countries like India which continued to see very significant growth in their labour forces in the next decade and beyond.13.This is not necessarily a disadvantage for China.But it is does require a much greater emphasis on efficiency in the use of capital, and on raising productivity in every sector of the economy.It also gives urgency to the task of developing a robust social security system for the old.14.There is indeed significant scope in China for productivity growth, and that is the basic reason why one should have optimism in the China‘s growth prospects.The level of productivity is roughly 15 to 18 per cent of that in the United States, or about 25 per cent that in the Asian NIEs on average.So there is still tremendous room for catch up – new technologies, new ideas, more efficient allocation of resources within its domestic economy.The level of capital stock per worker is also still low compared to Japan and the NIEs.Great scope ahead for improving productivity and incomes.Human capital development : from quantity to quality

15.This will involve changes in economic and social sector strategies, and adding momentum to important domestic reforms.First, with regard to human capital.China is shifting from a focus on quantity to quality.China has been a success story in providing widespread basic education and post-secondary education, especially compared to India and most other large developing regions.16.But there are wide disparities in quality in the Chinese education system.As the World Bank puts it, equality of quality is a major challenge in Chinese education, more than equality of access.This is a major challenge going forward.17.There is also the challenge of ensuring employability of graduates.China is producing many more graduates.It may have even have overdone the supply of graduates in the short to medium term.This is why when you look at the unemployment numbers, over nine per cent of young graduates are unemployed in China, and much more so in disciplines such as fine arts and Mathematics.There is an over-emphasis on theory, and under-emphasis on skills relevant to the marketplace.More openness, not less

18.The second challenge is to retain and intensify the shift to openness of the Chinese economy, through trade and investment.This is not given enough attention in the debate on global re-balancing.When we think about the United States reducing its current account deficits and China reducing its surpluses, the solution should not be for China to focus on domestic demand per se, in other words to shift from an export orientation to a domestic market orientation.The more critical growth solution is to intensify globalisation, by opening up one‘s economy even more to trade.In China‘s context and given its development stage, if we want to reduce surpluses there is more merit to increasing imports than to reducing exports.19.This is important because we have to look beyond overall imbalances.The motive force for China‘s development, and indeed East Asia‘s development, has been the influx of ideas and technology that comes from inserting yourself in the most advanced markets in the world.Foreign direct investment as well as exports that meet the specifications of buyers in the most advanced markets is a major motive force in economic development.For a country like China whose productivity level on average is still low, the priority should remain to maximise the import of ideas, best practices and technologies through foreign trade and investments, flowing in both directions.Openness matters greatly to long term growth.And the growth in gross flows of exports and imports respectivelyunlike India, Russia and other major emerging economies like Brazil.China‘s state-owned enterprises, for all the inefficiencies associated with their growth, have done a far better job in the transition to a market economy than for example the oligarchs in Russia.Severe imbalances exist, but this has been a story of growth without major disruption.That is an achievement.21.But there are important reforms ahead in achieving further marketisation of the economy, as the basis for a more efficient and balanced economy, and to improve the welfare of households.22.China is placing much importance in these reforms in the next five years and beyond.These start with the state-owned enterprises themselves.China has to move away from ?directed‘ investments, and to impose the true cost of capital on their investments so as to motivate decisions that are grounded on true profitability.Many related changes are associated with this shift – dividend policy reforms, legal and accounting changes, regulatory reforms.23.A further important area of marketisation concerns the financial sector.China hopes to move towards a more competitive, robust and diversified financial sector, to complement the move towards a more balanced economy and productivity-driven economic growth.There are five elements in the financial reforms that are very closely related togetheror environmental public goods.37.This is a very important field of study for scholars.38.China is already a significant voice in the global economic and financial world.It is the IMF's third largest shareholder and a major contributor to its resources.It holds key management positions in the Bretton Woods institutions-Justin Lin just stepped down from his four-year term as chief economist of World Bank;Zhu Min, former Deputy Governor of People's Bank of China took on the role of Deputy Managing Director of the IMF in middle last year.The governance of these multi-lateral institutions will have to continue to evolve to reflect the new global realities, including the increased weight of China and other emerging markets.It will continue to evolve also so that we develop stronger resolve and capacity for tackling the challenges of an interconnected global economy.39.However, China's economic characteristics especially the fact that its per capita income is not high, and the significant domestic imbalances it still faces, will surely influence the way it plays its role in global leadership.China can be expected to approach global issues with a sharp eye on their implication for domestic vulnerabilities and challenges.40.But there are more reasons for optimism than pessimism in this new phase.First, because of China's resolve to pursue domestic economic reforms.Second, because of China‘s confidence in its long history and culture, including the confidence gained from deeply rooted precepts of harmonious development of society.This confidence in its own culture can be turned into an asset as China seeks to project soft power.Thirdly, because China has consistently emphasised that it will choose the path of peaceful development.41.These three factors increase the odds of China playing a positive and responsible role within a multipolar global system.A strong China that remains committed to an open economic and financial order, remains committed to peace, stability and international rule of law will make a major contribution to a better world in the decades to come.The world looks forward to China's successfully navigating its dual challenge of domestic reforms and adapting to responsibilities as part of global leadership.Never before has so much been dependent on the successful adaptation of a single country to the needs and responsibilities of a global leadership, and so much dependent on the successful accommodation of that country on the stage of economic and political leadership.

第五篇：演講稿,中英文-戰(zhàn)略思維

所謂的戰(zhàn)略思維，就是關(guān)于實(shí)踐活動(dòng)的全局性思維，其根本特征是正確處理實(shí)踐活動(dòng)中各方面、各階段之間的關(guān)系，以達(dá)到全局的最佳效果。在工作中，我們是業(yè)務(wù)績(jī)效的主導(dǎo)者；在生活中，我們是家庭重要組成者，無論是成為一名總覽大局的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者還是實(shí)際的執(zhí)行者，都應(yīng)該擁有自身的戰(zhàn)略思維能力，如何培養(yǎng)戰(zhàn)略思維能力，成為擁有戰(zhàn)略思維能力的個(gè)體顯得尤為重要，那么一是獨(dú)立性：思維能力強(qiáng)的人必定是善于獨(dú)立思考的人。即使請(qǐng)教別人、查閱資料，也是以獨(dú)立思考為前提的。二是靈活性與敏捷性：對(duì)事物反映迅速而且靈活，不墨守成規(guī)，能較快地認(rèn)識(shí)、解決問題。三是邏輯性：思考問題嚴(yán)密而且科學(xué)，不穿鑿附會(huì)，不支離破碎，得出的結(jié)論有充足的理由和證據(jù)，前因后果思路清晰。四是全面性：看問題不片面，能從不同角度整體地看待事物。五是創(chuàng)造性：對(duì)問題能提出創(chuàng)造性見解，想到別人想不到方面。只有具備較高的戰(zhàn)略思維能力,才能正確處理戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)、戰(zhàn)略布局、戰(zhàn)略重點(diǎn)、戰(zhàn)略步驟、戰(zhàn)略保障、戰(zhàn)略轉(zhuǎn)變等一系列事關(guān)全局的戰(zhàn)略問題,才能有正確的戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃和戰(zhàn)略行動(dòng),才能駕馭全局取得事業(yè)的成功和可持續(xù)發(fā)展

So-called strategic thinking, it is about the practice of holistic thinking, its basic characteristics is the correct practice in all aspects, the relationship between each stage, in order to achieve global optimal results.At work, we are the leader of the business performance;In life, we are family is an important person, whether to be a leader in an overview the big picture or the executor of the practical, should have its own strategic thinking ability, how to train the ability of strategic thinking, it is particularly important to become more strategic thinking ability of the individual, so it is a independence: thinking ability of the person must be good at independent thinking person.Even consult others, data access, on the premise of independent thinking.Second, flexibility and agility: to reflect the rapid and flexible, things not hidebound, can quickly recognize and solve the problem.Are three logical: strict and scientific, not forced analogy, not broken, the conclusion there are plenty of reasons and evidence, the cause and clarity.Four is a comprehensive: can see problems not one-sided, overall to look at things from different angles.Five is creative, can come up with creative ideas to the problem, think about other people think.Only high strategic thinking ability, can properly handle the strategic target, strategic layout, strategic focus, strategic steps, strategic security, strategic shift and a series of global strategy is concerned, to have the correct strategic planning and strategic action, to manage global business success and sustainable development