第一篇：2018考研英語：文章素材那么多,你要不要讀？

http://004km.cn/kaoyan/ 考研英語：文章素材那么多，你要不要讀？

目前關(guān)于考研英語的素材來源，市面上各類書單滿天飛，究竟哪些才最靠譜?尤其是異?；馃岬摹督?jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》，到底要不要花費(fèi)精力在這本雜志上?針對(duì)這個(gè)問題，本文介紹了近十年閱讀來源匯總以及雜志閱讀方法策略。

一、閱讀文章來源解析

注：其他指《新科學(xué)家》、《社評(píng)雜志》、《福布斯》、《哈佛經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)》、《麥肯錫季刊》、《科學(xué)探索》、《科學(xué)》、《觀察家報(bào)》、《哈佛雜志》、《美國學(xué)校董事會(huì)雜志》、《星報(bào)在線》、《BigThink》、《華盛頓郵報(bào)》、《基督教科學(xué)箴言報(bào)》，以上雜志分別只出現(xiàn)過一次。

?2016年考研

1.2015年4月5日《基督教科學(xué)箴言報(bào)》

2.2014年11月15日《衛(wèi)報(bào)》

3.2015年7月23日《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》

4.2015年3月26日《美國大西洋月刊》

?2015年考研

1.2014年6月4日《衛(wèi)報(bào)》

2.2014年4月28日《華盛頓郵報(bào)》

3.2014年7月3日《自然雜志》

4.2014年6月29日《衛(wèi)報(bào)》

?2014年考研

http://004km.cn/kaoyan/ ?閱讀

1.2013年6月29日《衛(wèi)報(bào)》

2.2013年2月2日《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》

3.2013年6月12日《自然雜志》

4.2013年7月1日《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)在線》

?閱讀二：

1.2013年6月29日《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》《金錢和幸?！?/p>

2.2013年6月29日《星報(bào)在線》《怎樣改善自己的相貌》

3.2012年12月17日《大思想》《我們能贏得與機(jī)器的比賽嗎?》

4.2013年6月12日《衛(wèi)報(bào)》《綜合開支審查可能會(huì)扭轉(zhuǎn)房市危機(jī)》

?完型二：

2013年6月24日《美國大西洋月刊》《肥胖癥真的是一種病嗎?》

?翻譯二：

2009年3月《時(shí)代周刊》

?2013年考研

1.2012年6月21日《商業(yè)周刊》

2.2012年6月9日《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》

3.2012年5月23日《科學(xué)美國人》

4.2012年6月25日《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》

http://004km.cn/kaoyan/ ?2012年考研

?閱讀：

1.2011年3月24日《時(shí)代周刊》

2.2011年4月24日Boston.com

3.書《EverydayPracticeofScience:WhereIntuitionandPassionMeetObjectiveandLogic》

4.2011年3月17日《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》

?新題型：

2011年7月5日《新科學(xué)家》

?翻譯：

2011年4月20日《自然雜志》

2011年考研

?閱讀：

1.2007年9月《社評(píng)雜志》

2.2009年11月《商業(yè)周刊》

3.2010年1月《福布斯》

4.2010年7月9日《新聞周刊》

?新題型：

http://004km.cn/kaoyan/ 《Professionalizing the professor:the difficultiesof an American doctoralstudent University education in America》

?翻譯

書《Fifty self-help classics》

?2010年考研

?閱讀：

1.不詳

2.2008年2月26日《商業(yè)周刊》

3.2007年2月《哈佛經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)》

4.2009年4月《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》

?新題型：

2008年4月美國哥倫比亞廣播公司新聞報(bào)道

?完型填空：

2009年6月6日《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》

?翻譯：

書《A Sand County Almanac》

2008年考研

?閱讀

1.2006年12月《科學(xué)探索》

http://004km.cn/kaoyan/ 2.2005年9月22日《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》

3.2001年7月《科學(xué)美國人》

4.2004年1月《美國新聞》

?完型填空：

2005年6月2日《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》

?翻譯：

木書屋達(dá)爾文傳

?2007年考研

?閱讀：

1.2006年5月7日《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》

2.2001年5月《科學(xué)美國人》

3.2001年6月《哈佛雜志》

4.2005年6月《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》

?新題型

2005年1月《時(shí)代周刊》

?2006年考研

?閱讀:

1.不詳

2.2000年11月《觀察家報(bào)》

http://004km.cn/kaoyan/ 3.2003年5月15日《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》

4.2005年1月17日《時(shí)代周刊》

?2005年考研

?閱讀：

1.2003年9月20日《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家》

2.2001年6月25日《美國新聞報(bào)道》

3.2002年7月15日《新聞周刊》

4.2004年1月31日《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》

根據(jù)這些數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)，我們不難發(fā)現(xiàn)，80%的考研英語閱讀來源于《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》、《衛(wèi)報(bào)》、《自然雜志》、《新聞周刊》、《科學(xué)美國人》等。

偶爾也會(huì)在一些書籍中尋找合適的文字做考試素材，但不多見，尤其是這幾年已經(jīng)很難見到。

二、閱讀側(cè)重點(diǎn)解析

從體裁上看，大綱要求考生能夠順利讀懂四類文章，分別為議論文、說明文、記敘文和應(yīng)用文。不過，考研閱讀理解的文章大多為說明文或者議論文。針對(duì)這兩類文章，大家應(yīng)該有不同的閱讀重點(diǎn)和策略。

其中社會(huì)科學(xué)是考研英語閱讀的主要和重點(diǎn)選材，自然科學(xué)一直保持在1篇文章左右的分量，人文科學(xué)的重要性則有上升的趨勢。

http://004km.cn/kaoyan/ 另外在絕大多數(shù)情況下，歷年真題的文章來源一般控制在過去的5年之內(nèi)，即倘若2007年參加考研的話，2007年的文章一般來自于2001年到2006年之間的報(bào)刊雜志上。

但近五年的真題來源有所改變，一般選自過去兩年內(nèi)的雜志，甚至一年內(nèi)的居多，可見文章的時(shí)效性越來越明顯，所以我們閱讀的范圍也就小了很多。

英語閱讀真題文章一般字?jǐn)?shù)上控制在450字到550字之間，段落上一般控制在3到6個(gè)段落。所以我們可以把精力主要集中在符合前面字?jǐn)?shù)、段落以及年份的文章來進(jìn)行復(fù)習(xí)和閱讀，如此一來我們就把復(fù)習(xí)的范圍大為減少了。

三、主旨句分類解析

閱讀理解占考研英語的半壁江山，穩(wěn)扎穩(wěn)打拿下考研英語需要同學(xué)們掌握一項(xiàng)必備技能：快速準(zhǔn)確地找到文章的主旨句。

主旨句往往以不同形式隱藏在閱讀文章中，需要同學(xué)們綜合了解、加以辨別。來跟小編一起來看一看考研英語主旨句分哪些吧。

?考研英語閱讀主旨句之首段獨(dú)立型

如果一篇文章的首段是一句話，且該句獨(dú)立成段，那么這個(gè)句子很有可能就是本文的核心論點(diǎn)，即文章主旨，起到高屋建瓴、提綱挈領(lǐng)的作用。同學(xué)們?cè)谝姷竭@樣的文章時(shí)要注意首句的作用。

?考研英語閱讀主旨句之提問型

如果文章第一段的首句、末句或者第二段第一句是一個(gè)疑問句，那么本文的通篇內(nèi)容就很可能是對(duì)該問題的一個(gè)解答，主旨就隱藏在其中。同學(xué)們?cè)陂喿x文章的時(shí)候要記得留意與提出問題相關(guān)的內(nèi)容。

http://004km.cn/kaoyan/ 不過要注意，如果文章中有并列的兩個(gè)或多個(gè)提問句，那就另當(dāng)別論。同學(xué)們要靈活分析情況。

?考研英語閱讀主旨句之轉(zhuǎn)折型

如果文章第一段先描述一件事情，然后在本段或第二段首句出現(xiàn)轉(zhuǎn)折詞，進(jìn)而表述另一件事情，那么本文主旨就是轉(zhuǎn)折詞之后的另一件事。這是經(jīng)常出現(xiàn)的一種主旨表現(xiàn)形式。

?考研英語閱讀主旨句之舉例型

如果文章第一段出現(xiàn)了舉例引用，如敘述個(gè)人經(jīng)歷、講述故事、描寫一起事故等，其目的顯然是要通過舉例的方法引出文章主題。通常情況下，這類文章的主旨句就在這一段的最后一句或第二段的首句。

?考研英語閱讀主旨句之類比型

如果一篇文章開頭或第一段涉及某事件A，隨后或者第二段開頭用到類似“Now the samething is happening to...”的類比句式來引出某事件B。出現(xiàn)這種情況時(shí)，很有可能文章的主旨就是后出現(xiàn)的事件B。

?考研英語閱讀主旨句之拋磚引玉型

還有一場常見的主旨出現(xiàn)方式，就是先羅列大眾觀點(diǎn)或他人觀點(diǎn)，其目的顯然是要通過大眾或他人的觀點(diǎn)引出自己的觀點(diǎn)。這種情況下，主旨句往往出現(xiàn)在表述大眾觀點(diǎn)或他人觀點(diǎn)的句子之后。

2018考研學(xué)子想要了解更多考研資訊、復(fù)習(xí)資料與備考經(jīng)驗(yàn)，可以搜索文都網(wǎng)校進(jìn)入考研頻道，查看2018考研輔導(dǎo)課程，咨詢專業(yè)老師考研相關(guān)內(nèi)容。

http://004km.cn/kaoyan/ 考研不是你一個(gè)人在戰(zhàn)斗，漫漫考研路上，文都網(wǎng)?？佳欣蠋煏?huì)一直陪伴在同學(xué)們左右。祝2018考研學(xué)子備考順利，考研成功!

第二篇：考研英語作文背了那么多你真的會(huì)用嗎

大家都知道：臨陣磨槍，不快也光。特別是針對(duì)于英語作文，考前背模板成了所有考生不約而同都要做的事。你背我也背，大家都在背，單單只知道傻傻的背，真的有用嗎？

隨著2018考研時(shí)間的臨近，很多同學(xué)都已經(jīng)開始把復(fù)習(xí)的精力轉(zhuǎn)移到比較容易得分的專項(xiàng)上，對(duì)于英語來說，最容易提分的部分仍然是寫作部分。大部分同學(xué)都認(rèn)為只要考前背誦一些范文、模板就能考出不錯(cuò)的分?jǐn)?shù)，但是事實(shí)并非如此。

很多同學(xué)閱讀過無數(shù)篇考研經(jīng)驗(yàn)帖子，有些學(xué)姐學(xué)長告訴你考研英語作文套用模板就可以。但是大家在使用寫作模板這個(gè)問題上是存在很大的誤區(qū)的，經(jīng)常出現(xiàn)這樣那樣的問題。

?套用模板的幾種常見錯(cuò)誤

易犯錯(cuò)誤一：模板中的句型套用不正確，不完整。

比如：我們?cè)跁沤Y(jié)尾的時(shí)候會(huì)說I am looking forward to hearing from you.而學(xué)生卻把這句話寫成了I am looked forward to hear from you.這種現(xiàn)象非常普遍，可見，學(xué)生的寫作態(tài)度并不是很端正，很認(rèn)真。

易犯錯(cuò)誤二：模板中的句型和實(shí)際寫作內(nèi)容不匹配。

比如：有的圖畫作文第二段要求根據(jù)圖畫所表達(dá)的含義進(jìn)行深層次的論證，而學(xué)生套用的句型卻是第二段寫對(duì)比的句型，顯然是沒有正確理解句型使用的語言背景。

再比如：小作文的摘要，是要根據(jù)漢語文章歸納出中心內(nèi)容進(jìn)行英語寫作，這個(gè)一般都是客觀的描述，而學(xué)生卻用了一個(gè)寫圖畫作文的模板，通篇都是“我”認(rèn)為，這如何又能得高分呢?

易犯錯(cuò)誤三：模板套用千篇一律，沒有新意。

再好的模板，如果所有的學(xué)生都是用也就變成了一張白紙，沒有任何亮點(diǎn)。而這個(gè)錯(cuò)誤也正是急功近利的學(xué)生容易犯的。

那么，英語作文模板到底可不可以用?

可以用。模板給我們預(yù)先規(guī)定好寫作的框架，可以幫助我們很快構(gòu)思出每一段大致寫什么內(nèi)容。再者，通過背誦模板，可以有效彌補(bǔ)我們的詞匯和句式多樣性的匱乏，從遣詞造句上迅速提升作文的水準(zhǔn)。

但是要注意方法，只靠通用的模板本身是很難在閱卷老師那里蒙混過關(guān)的，尤其是近年考研閱卷已經(jīng)十分重視“反模板化”。模板用的好會(huì)給你的作文“錦上添花”，用的不好反而會(huì)暴露你真實(shí)的“蹩腳”英語水平。我們要通過自己的練習(xí)，對(duì)模板不斷完善升級(jí)，從而打造屬于自己的個(gè)性化模板。

?三步教你打造屬于自己的個(gè)性化模板

第一步：

要做到對(duì)自己所用模板的每個(gè)詞每句話意思清楚，以及空缺的部分應(yīng)該填補(bǔ)詞還是句子。

第二步：

利用模板仿寫真題和模擬題，反復(fù)實(shí)踐。在實(shí)踐中反復(fù)熟悉模板的內(nèi)容以做到靈活的使用。在這個(gè)過程中，你寫作的不足和障礙也會(huì)有效暴露出來，記得要及時(shí)的“補(bǔ)救”。

而且大家可以根據(jù)你手上的模板中一些強(qiáng)烈模板句的開頭或者連接句進(jìn)行自己的改造，同時(shí)在可以嘗試把多個(gè)模板糅合成一個(gè)你自己獨(dú)創(chuàng)的新的模板。

第三歩：

在此基礎(chǔ)之上，同學(xué)們還需要積累一些必要的寫作素材，拓寬寫作思路，這樣才能真正做到在考場上“得心應(yīng)手”，“言之有物”。

比如，大家可以在閱讀中學(xué)習(xí)寫作，遇到使用范圍較廣的句子就可以記錄下來，像環(huán)保類，法律類，道德品質(zhì)類等，一般適用性都比較強(qiáng)。當(dāng)然，隨著寫作能力的上升也可以不再拘泥于模板。

?案例：結(jié)合真題分析如何使用模板

下面，我們結(jié)合一道非常具有代表性的真題來進(jìn)行作文模板的分析。這道題是2010年(英語一)大作文題目。

Write an essay of 160-200 words based on the following drawing.In your essay, you should

1)describe the drawing briefly，2)explain its intended meaning, and then

3)give your comments.You should write neatly on ANSHWER SHEET 2.(20 points)

大家肯定對(duì)這道題十分熟悉。按照大作文評(píng)分標(biāo)準(zhǔn)中的“內(nèi)容完整”，我們需要將大作文寫成3段話：第一段“描述圖畫”;第二段“闡述寓意”;第三段“個(gè)人評(píng)論”。這三個(gè)要求根本不用去記，因?yàn)轭}目當(dāng)中已經(jīng)有了。

第一段的段落思路：“直觀評(píng)價(jià)、整體描述、細(xì)節(jié)描述、過渡句”。

第一句我們只需要對(duì)這幅圖畫進(jìn)行直觀評(píng)價(jià)就可以了?？梢詫懗蒞hat an interesting picture it is!怎么記?只要記住這是一個(gè)感嘆句句式即可。

第二句記憶的時(shí)候，弄清楚前后兩個(gè)非限制性定語從句。As is vividly depicted in the photo, a hot pot is boiling a lot of different things with much hot steam gushing, which successfully captures our eyes.第三句可以寫成After a close watch, it is not difficult to find that many kinds of culture have been mixed in the same small hot pot, symbolizing the exchange of many different kinds of culture from all over the world.在記憶的時(shí)候，只需記住是“狀語+it形式主語句+主干”即可。

Apparently, what the drawing has subtly conveyed deserves a further analysis.這是最后一句，相信大家能立馬分清：這是主語從句。

接著看第二段。第二段的思路是：“關(guān)鍵句(總)、具體原因(分)、結(jié)果分析”。

例子：

Theoretically, the phenomenon presented by the drawing brings us both advantages and disadvantages.As for my part, the former outweighs its latter.On the top of list is that the same earth village could bring us much more commerce opportunities, which help the whole development of the world.In addition, there is the other point that no one can ignore.It is no doubt that more friendly cooperation from different countries may promote the development of diplomatic relations between countries.No other case can better illustrate the phenomenon than the picture above.其實(shí)，第一句就是“主謂賓”的結(jié)構(gòu)，后面的原因句子，“On the top of list is that...”是我們教大家的框架句子?！癐n addition, there is the other point that...”這樣的句式其實(shí)就是就是“There be +that從句”。

來看最后一段。段落思路是“關(guān)鍵句+具體建議+結(jié)尾句”。由于本題屬于“社會(huì)現(xiàn)象”，所以可以寫成以下段落。記憶這些句子時(shí)，注意句式：it形式主語句式、倒裝句等。

According to the analysis above, it is advisable for us to take steps to maximize its positive effects and minimize the disadvantages.Of all the steps, mass media tends to function essentially in the job.Only in this way can we make the best of the value of global communication between mass kinds of culture.所以同學(xué)們?cè)跍?zhǔn)備考研英語作文時(shí)一定要把握住每個(gè)段落的思路，每個(gè)句式的特點(diǎn)。一定要弄清楚每個(gè)句子怎么構(gòu)成的，只有先理解句子的語法構(gòu)成，才能順利記住這些“神通廣大”的句子，并且將它們補(bǔ)齊寫成自己特有的亮點(diǎn)句子。

?瞬間提升作文檔次的金句：

1.愛屋及烏 Love me, love my dog.2.百聞不如一見 Seeing is believing.3.比上不足比下有余 worse off than some, better off than many;to fall short of the best, but be better than the worst.4.笨鳥先飛 A slow sparrow should make an early start.5.不眠之夜 white night

6.不以物喜不以己悲 not pleased by external gains, not saddened by personnal losses

7.不遺余力 spare no effort;go all out;do one's best

8.不打不成交 No discord, no concord.9.拆東墻補(bǔ)西墻 rob Peter to pay Paul

10.辭舊迎新 bid farewell to the old and usher in the new;ring out the old year and ring in the new

11.大事化小小事化了 try first to make their mistake sound less serious and then to reduce it to nothing at all

12.大開眼界 open one's eyes;broaden one's horizon;be an eye-opener

13.國泰民安 The country flourishes and people live in peace

14.過猶不及 going too far is as bad as not going far enough;beyond is as wrong as falling short;too much is as bad as too little

15.功夫不負(fù)有心人 Everything comes to him who waits.16.好了傷疤忘了疼 once on shore, one prays no more

17.好事不出門惡事傳千里 Good news never goes beyond the gate, while bad news spread far and wide.18.和氣生財(cái) Harmony brings wealth.19.活到老學(xué)到老 One is never too old to learn.20.既往不咎 let bygones be bygones

21.金無足赤人無完人 Gold can't be pure and man can't be perfect.22.金玉滿堂 Treasures fill the home.23.腳踏實(shí)地 be down-to-earth

24.腳踩兩只船 sit on the fence

25.君子之交淡如水 the friendship between gentlemen is as pure as crystal;a hedge between keeps friendship green

26.老生常談陳詞濫調(diào) cut and dried, cliché

27.禮尚往來 Courtesy calls for reciprocity.28.留得青山在不怕沒柴燒 Where there is life, there is hope.29.馬到成功 achieve immediate victory;win instant success

30.名利雙收 gain in both fame and wealth

31.茅塞頓開 be suddenly enlightened

32.沒有規(guī)矩不成方圓 Nothing can be accomplished without norms or standards.33.每逢佳節(jié)倍思親 On festive occasions more than ever one thinks of one's dear ones far away.It is on the festival occasions when one misses his dear most.34.謀事在人成事在天 The planning lies with man, the outcome with Heaven.Man proposes, God disposes.35.弄巧成拙 be too smart by half;Cunning outwits itself

36.拿手好戲 masterpiece

37.賠了夫人又折兵 throw good money after bad

38.拋磚引玉 a modest spur to induce others to come forward with valuable contributions;throw a sprat to catch a whale

39.破釜沉舟 cut off all means of retreat;burn one's own way of retreat and be determined to fight to the end

40.搶得先機(jī) take the preemptive opportunities

41.巧婦難為無米之炊 If you have no hand you can't make a fist.One can't make bricks without straw.42.千里之行始于足下 a thousand-li journey begins with the first step-the highest eminence is to be gained step by step

43.前事不忘后事之師 Past experience, if not forgotten, is a guide for the future.44.前人栽樹后人乘涼 One generation plants the trees in whose shade another generation rests.One sows and another reaps.45.前怕狼后怕虎 fear the wolf in front and the tiger behind hesitate in doing something

46.強(qiáng)龍難壓地頭蛇 Even a dragon(from the outside)finds it hard to control a snake in its old haunt-Powerful outsiders can hardly afford to neglect local bullies.47.強(qiáng)強(qiáng)聯(lián)手 win-win co-operation

48.瑞雪兆豐年 A timely snow promises a good harvest.49.人之初性本善 Man's nature at birth is good.50.人逢喜事精神爽 Joy puts heart into a man.51.人海戰(zhàn)術(shù) huge-crowd strategy

52.世上無難事只要肯攀登 Where there is a will, there is a way.53.世外桃源 a fictitious land of peace away from the turmoil of the world;

54.死而后已 until my heart stops beating

55.歲歲平安 Peace all year round.56.上有天堂下有蘇杭 Just as there is paradise in heaven, ther are Suzhou and Hangzhou on earth

57.塞翁失馬焉知非福 Misfortune may be an actual blessing.58.三十而立 A man should be independent at the age of thirty.At thirty, a man should be able to think for himself.59.升級(jí)換代 updating and upgrading(of products)

60.四十不惑 Life begins at forty.

第三篇：考研英語作文素材

2011考研英語作文素材：電信(Telecommuting)

elecommuting--substituting the computer for the trip to the job----has been hailed as a solution to all kinds of problems related to office work.For workers it promises freedom from the office, less time wasted in traffic, and help with child-care conflicts.For management, telecommuting helps keep high performers on board, minimizes tardiness and absenteeism by eliminating commutes, allows periods of solitude for high-concentration tasks, and provides scheduling flexibility.In some areas, such as Southern California and Seattle, Washington, local governments are encouraging companies to start telecommuting programs in order to reduce rush-hour congestion and improve air quality.But these benefits do not come easily.Making a telecommuting program work requires careful planning and an understanding of the differences between telecommuting realities and popular images.Many workers are seduced by rosy illusions of life as a telecommuter.A computer programmer from New York City moves to the tranquil Adirondack Mountains and stays in contact with her office via computer.A manager comes in to his office three days a week and works at home the other two.An accountant stays home to care for her sick child;she hooks up her telephone modern connections and does office work between calls to the doctor.These are powerful images, but they are a limited reflection of reality.Telecommuting workers soon learn that it is almost impossible to concentrate on work and care for a young child at the same time.Before a certain age, young children cannot recognize, much

less respect, the necessary boundaries between work and family.Additional child support is necessary if the parent is to get any work done.Management too must separate the myth from the reality.Although the media has paid a great deal of attention to telecommuting in most cases it is the employee‘s situation, not the availability of technology that precipitates a telecommuting arrangement.That is partly why, despite the widespread press coverage, the number of companies with work-at-home programs or policy guidelines remains small.考研作文寫作素材：學(xué)校教育

It is commonly believed in United States that school is where people go to get an education.Nevertheless, it has been said that today children interrupt their education to go to school.The distinction between schooling and education implied by this remark is important.Education is much more open-ended and all-inclusive than schooling.Education knows no bounds.It can take place anywhere, whether in the shower or in the job, whether in a kitchen or on a tractor.It includes both the formal learning that takes place in schools and the whole universe of informal learning.The agents of education can range from a revered grandparent to the people debating politics on the radio, from a child to a distinguished scientist.Whereas schooling has a certain predictability, education quite often produces surprises.A chance conversation with a stranger may lead a person to discover how little is known of other religions.People are engaged in education from infancy on.Education, then, is a very broad, inclusive term.It is a lifelong process, a process that starts long before the start of school, and one that should be an integral part of one‘s entire life.Schooling, on the other hand, is a specific, formalized process, whose general pattern varies little from one setting to the next.Throughout a country, children arrive at school at approximately the same time, take assigned seats, are taught by an adult, use similar textbooks, do homework, take exams, and so on.The slices of reality that are to be learned, whether they are the alphabet or an understanding of the working of government, have usually been limited by the boundaries of the subject being taught.For example, high school students know that there not likely to find out in their classes the truth about political problems in their communities or what the newest filmmakers are experimenting with.There are definite conditions surrounding the formalized process of schooling.如何減少壓力(How to Reduce Stress)

Stress is an inevitable part in our normal life.Many kinds of things, such as natural disasters, war and death can cause too much stress in our life.But according to a psychologist, on a day-to-day basis, stress may result from the small things: taking an exam, waiting in line, and having too many things to do in a limited time.We all need stress to add flavor, challenge, and opportunity to life, but too much stress can seriously affect our physical and mental well-being, It reduces the body‘s immunity and harms the brain, If the stress lasts a long time, it may cause physical illness, insomnia, headaches, backaches, ulcers, high blood pressure-even heart disease.When stress does occur, it‘s important to recognize and deal with it.There ore some methods we can try.A large number of physical activities can reduce onxiety.Shoring our stress with others can be enormously helpful.Making time for fun such os listening to music may be good medicine.Sometimes even crying is on efficient way to releose stress.父母過于嬌縱孩子(Parents Are too Permissive with Their Children Nowadays)

The child‘ s happiness is al I-important, the psychologists say, but what about the parents‘ happiness? Parents suffer constantly from fear and guilt while their children gaily romp about pulling the place apart.A good old-fashioned spanking is out of the question: no modern child-rearing manual would permit such barbarity.The trouble is you are not allowed even to shout.Who knows what dccp psychological wounds you might inflict? Certainly a child needs love, and a lot of it.But the excessive permissiveness of modern parents is surely doing more harm than good.Lax authority over the years makes adolescent rebellion against parents all the more violent.If the young people are going to have a party, for instance, parents are asked to leave the house.Their presence merely spoils the fun.What else can the poor parents do but obey?

Children are hardy creatures(far hardier than the psychologists would have us believe)and most of them survive the harmful influence of extreme permissiveness which is the normal condition in the modern household.But a great many do not.The spread of juvenile delinquency in our own age is

largely due to parental laxity.The psychologists have much to answer for.They should keep their mouths shut and let parents get on with the job.And if children are knocked about a little bit in the process, it may not really matter too much.At least this will help them to develop vigorous views of their own and give them something positive to react against.Perhaps there‘s some truth in the idea that children who‘ ve had an excess of happiness in their childhood fail to make a success of life.寫作素材：贊成廣告論 Money spent on advertising is money well spent.It assists a rapid distribution of goods at reasonable prices.It draws attention to new ideas and so helps enormously to raise standards of living.By helping to increase the demand for goods, it increases the number of workers needed to supply the goods and,therefore, provides employment.It helps to pay for many services.Without advertisements, your daily newspaper would cost a dollar or more, the price of your television license would need to be doubled, and travel by bus would cost more.Perhaps most important of all, advertising helps to keep up the quality of the products and services you buy.No regular advertiser dare offer a product that fails to live up to the promise of his advertisements.He might fool some people for a little while through misleading advertising.He will not do so for ong;for the public has the good sense not to buy the poor uality article more than once.If I see an article advertised, it s the surest proof I know that the article does what is claimed for it, and that it is of good value.There is one more point I feel I ought to touch on.Recently, I heard a well-known television personality declare that he was against advertising because it persuades rather than informs.This is hair-splitting.Of course advertising seeks to persuade.If it only gave information, advertising would be so boring that no one would pay any attention.But perhaps that is what the well-known television personality wants.lam prepared to make just one admission to the opponents of advertising.Not every advertisement is a good one.Some advertisements are silly.Some are pointless though not very many.Pick up the nearest magazine or newspaper and count the advertisements that really offend you.And then count the advertisements that, in some degree, interest you, or give you pleasure.And be honest!

第四篇：考研英語作文素材

考研英語(一)作文備考素材

1.2013年研究生入學(xué)考試英語

（一）小作文回憶版： Dear doctor, I am writing to express my warm invitation to you for the coming English contest.As we all know that you had won the top honor on last year’s contest, which gave us a deep impression.On last year’s English contest, you were natural, fluent, and of course, humorous, which earned widely applause from the audience and deep impression for judgers.So, all of us hope you can take the judge for the English contest next week.I appreciate the time that you have taken to read the letter and I will be grateful if our invitation received your deep consideration.Hope to hear from you and best wishes to you.Sincerely, Li Ming 2.祝賀信：（話題與2013年小作文真題一致）Dear Bob，Congratulations on your wining this year’s speech contest.What a wonderful performance you gave yesterday.You are natural, fluent, and of course, humorous.Did you realize how much applause you earned an that time? Your speech was interrupted five times by laughter and applause from the audience, It was superb!

I am so happy for your success and I know more than anyone else how much efforts you have put in the practice.Yes, you are talented, but it is your efforts that won you the top honor of the contest.I just can’t tell you how pround I feel of you.Yours truly

Li Ming 3.求職信:

Dear Sir or madam，I am writing to ask if it is possible for you to give me an opportunity to take the promising position in your wanted.Based on the wanted , I learned that my character does meet the requirement of the position perfectly, Which ask for more open-minded, more energetic and more creative people.What’s more , being good at professional knowledge, both in designing and editing will help me do well in performance.Besides，I can also express myself effectively in both spoken and written English.In addition, I have a very easy-going personality , I have a strong sense of humor that attracts people and around me, Moreover, you will find me hard-working, cooperative and innovate.I have no doubt that I will be an ideal candidate for the position, I am looking forward to hearing from you.You will find me via the mobile phone by dialing 12345.Sincerely, Li Ming 4.感謝信：

(1)Dear Teachers and classmates，F(xiàn)irst of all, please allow me to say “Thank you” to all of you.It is very kind of you to spare your valuable time during the period of final examinations and come to see me.Your visit has given me much confidence and power to overcome the illness.When I first came to the hospital, I really felt lonely and did not have enough courage and confidence to overcome the illness.Your visit has made me feel that I am not poor and lonely in the world and in fact I am living in a world of love.These days, my condition has been obviously improved due to the careful treatment offered by doctors and nurses.My doctor has told me that I will completely recover from illness in two weeks.I hope that I can see you earlier.Again, special thanks go to all of you.Sincerely yours

Li Ming(2)Dear Aunt Sun，It is a great pleasure to extend my sincere gratitude to you for your hospitality and consideration while I pursue my bachelors degree at University of California.As soon as I arrived in Los Angeles, you found me an apartment near my university.When I met with difficulties you often sent your daughter to help me and when I felt homesick you often talked to me patiently.You told me how to improve my efficiency in both work and study and how to get on well with teachers and schoolmates.Furthermore, you invited me to dinner on nearly every weekend.Without your help, I would not have graduated with honors and found a satisfactory job back here in China.I know I can never repay you for everything you have done for me in the past four years, but you can be sure that I’ll never forget it.Best regards.Yours faithfully，Li Ming 5.慰問信：

6.節(jié)約是美德備考素材：

To practice economy is closely related to our daily life, In terms of our clothing, food, sheltering and transport, much work can be done to save valuable energy and natural resources, such as power, water, coal, gas and so on.We, as university students, should take the wise use of paper and second-hand textbooks into consideration.What’s more, the public participation is the foundation of a society in which practicing economy is advocated and treasured, since society environment is shaped by the general public, the cultivation of conservation-minded society depends on the active involvement of every member of our society, be he old or young.In my view, The further development of our society needs practice economy, much more effective measures should be taken so as to practice economy.Education on how to practice economy must be promoted by relevant government departments and professionals at different levels.Only in this ways can we creat a real conservation-minded society.7.The phenomenon reflected in the picture is both immoral and illegal, It is well known that honest is a traditional virtue cherished by Chinese.8.The picture does reflect a thought-provoking social phenomenon.9.The photos have revealed a current social phenomenon.10.I will be grateful if my suggestion received your deep consideration.11.I appreciate the time that you have taken to read my letter and hope to hear from you.12.In conclusion, cooperation is an essential element of success.13.It is not uncommon to find that……

14.Without cooperation, a person or organization can’t accomplish much in the increasingly interdependent society we now live in.It is the cooperation based on the complementary advantages that will contribute to the ultimate success.15.You will find me hard-working, cooperative and innovative.16.I can also express myself effectively in both spoken and written English.17.The role honesty plays is invisible but remarkable.No body suspects the remarkable factor that honest plays in public.The further development of society needs honest, the real improvement of ourselves also needs honest.18.In order to meet the requirement of our society, our students should hold the view to be honest.19.We should cultivate the awareness that to be honest is not only just good for other, but also good for ourselves actually.20.What is revealed in the drawing is not uncommon in our routine life and the phenomenon is most thought-provoking to each responsible citizen of our society.21.創(chuàng)新型社會(huì): the innovative society；和諧社會(huì)：the harmonious society； 節(jié)約型社會(huì)：conservation-minded society；

環(huán)境友好型社會(huì)：Environmentally friendly society 22.堅(jiān)持：persevere ；創(chuàng)新：innovation；勤奮：diligence

第五篇：考研英語閱讀材料 economist相關(guān)文章

《The Economist》《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》中文版

Translated From 《The Economist》,By ecocn team http://004km.cn 埃及:核武總統(tǒng)

穆罕默德?巴拉迪

From fission to Pharaoh? 從核武到政權(quán)

Dec 17th 2009 | CAIRO From The Economist print edition

Egyptian reformers suggest a possible president 埃及的改革者建議的未來總統(tǒng)

Getty Images

Planting a bomb under Egyptian politics 在埃及的政治舞臺(tái)埋下炸彈

WHEN Mohamed ElBaradei won the Nobel peace prize in 2005, Egyptians happily proclaimed him a national hero.But now that he has retired after 12 years as head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, some are calling him a villain.He may be an American or even an Iranian agent, hint editorials in Egypt’s state-owned press.He bears a nasty grudge against his native country after so long abroad, grumble other government mouthpieces.當(dāng)穆罕默德?巴拉迪在2005年獲得諾貝爾和平獎(jiǎng)時(shí)，埃及人興奮的稱他為國家英雄。但現(xiàn)在，當(dāng)他從工作了十二年的國際原子能機(jī)構(gòu)（聯(lián)合國核武器監(jiān)察機(jī)構(gòu)）總干事職務(wù)上退休時(shí)，有些人卻稱呼他惡棍。埃及的國有新聞機(jī)構(gòu)發(fā)表社論，暗指他可能是美國甚至是伊朗的間諜。在國外多年之后，他對(duì)自己的祖國懷有惡毒的怨恨，抱怨其他的政府官員。

The reason for this sudden spate of spurious insinuation? Responding to pleas from reform-minded Egyptians despairing of local politics, Mr ElBaradei has suggested he may return to Egypt and run for president in elections due in 2011.Worse yet, he has deigned to propose conditions for his possible candidacy.The poll, he says, must meet internationally accepted standards.突然爆發(fā)的這些惡意指責(zé)，原因是什么呢？巴拉迪先生響應(yīng)了埃及國內(nèi)那些絕望的改革派的呼吁，承認(rèn)他可能會(huì)返回埃及，參與2011年的總統(tǒng)選舉。更糟糕的是，他為他的參選提出了條件，他說，投票選舉必須符合國際通行的準(zhǔn)則。

For so prominent a citizen to toss his hat into the ring would cause scarcely a shrug elsewhere.In Egypt, where five decades under a single party and almost three under its present leader, President Hosni Mubarak, have smothered all but a pretence of democracy, it has raised a big cloud of dust.The notion of Mr ElBaradei’s candidacy brings a frisson of unpredictability to what Egyptians had assumed would be a scripted outcome, giving either a sixth six-year term to Mr Mubarak, now 81, or a win for his son, Gamal, who steers policy in the ruling National Democratic Party(NDP).對(duì)于一個(gè)如此名聲顯赫的公民參與選舉，在別的地方可能并不能算是什么。但在埃及卻能攪起風(fēng)暴。這個(gè)國家在過去的五十年里一直被同一個(gè)政黨統(tǒng)治，現(xiàn)任總統(tǒng)胡斯尼?穆巴拉克的統(tǒng)治幾乎就占了三十年,民主已經(jīng)成為虛假的表象。埃及人本以為選舉的結(jié)果已經(jīng)確定，要么是給已經(jīng)81歲的穆巴拉克第六個(gè)六年任期，要么就是他的兒子賈邁勒當(dāng)選，目前他已經(jīng)開始掌控民族民主黨（NDP）。但巴拉迪參選的打算給這次選舉帶來了變數(shù)。

More annoyingly for Egypt’s rulers, Mr ElBaradei’s declaration of conditions has cast unwonted light on the crafty constitutional mechanics that allow the stage-managing of Egypt’s supposed democracy.Even to become a legal independent candidate, for instance, Mr ElBaradei would need to collect 250 signatures from a range of “elected” officials, all of whom happen to sit in bodies massively dominated by the NDP.令埃及統(tǒng)治者更加感到惱怒的是巴拉迪所宣稱的選舉條件，因?yàn)檫@將引起大眾對(duì)憲法的關(guān)注，而在現(xiàn)有的憲法，在機(jī)制上可巧妙地確保對(duì)埃及所宣稱的民主選舉進(jìn)行某種暗箱操作。例如，為了成為一個(gè)合法的獨(dú)立候選人，巴拉迪需要在選舉的官員中收集到250簽名推薦，而這些官員卻大多屬于統(tǒng)治黨民族民主黨（NDP）。

Perhaps not even Mr ElBaradei himself expects that he may be allowed to become a serious challenger.Yet such is the depth of frustration with Egypt’s stagnant politics and many social ills, particularly among the generation that has known no rule except Mr Mubarak’s, that even this distant hope has stirred passions.Surprisingly, considering that he has spent most of the past 40 years outside Egypt, and rarely pronounced on its troubles, some 21,000 enthusiasts have signed on to a Facebook support group.Perhaps theirs is the voice of Egypt’s future.或許即使巴拉迪自己也沒有奢望自己會(huì)被允許成為一個(gè)正式的挑戰(zhàn)者。然而正是這種埃及國內(nèi)沉悶的政治環(huán)境和社會(huì)問題，特別是那些在穆巴拉克統(tǒng)治下成長起來的一代人中，縹緲的希望也給人們帶來了巨大的激情。因此，即使巴拉迪在過去的40年中大部時(shí)間都在國外度過，也很少討論埃及所面臨的問題，卻仍然有21，000熱烈支持者簽名加入在Facebook網(wǎng)站的支持群組?；蛟S他們代表了埃及未來的呼聲。

發(fā)表于09:05 | 閱讀全文 | 評(píng)論 58 | 編輯 | 分享2 ? 印度:農(nóng)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)向制造業(yè)

2009-12-26

An imperfect storm

一場不完美的風(fēng)暴

Nov 13th 2009 From The World in 2010 print edition By Simon Cox, DELHI

Thanks partly to the monsoon, manufacturing will overtake agriculture for the first time in India 一定程度上得歸功于季風(fēng)氣候，印度的制造業(yè)總值將首次超越農(nóng)業(yè)。

From the village of Vijay Pura in the Indian state of Rajasthan, the global financial crisis seems remote.The downturn is something people here read about in the newspapers, according to Dhanna Singh, a member of the Mazdoor Kisan Shakti Sangathan(MKSS), a union of activists and farmers.The villages have welcomed back migrant workers from neighbouring states, where people no longer find work twisting steel in Mumbai or polishing diamonds in Surat.But, by and large, India’s rural poor were protected from the crisis by the same things that make them poor.If you never had secure employment or many financial assets, you cannot lose them to the crisis.對(duì)于印度拉賈斯坦邦維杰.普拉村來說，全球性金融危機(jī)似乎很遙遠(yuǎn)。根據(jù)德哈那.辛格，一名積極分子與農(nóng)場主聯(lián)合會(huì)MKSS成員的說法，經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷只是這里的人們從報(bào)紙上讀到的談資而已。很多移民工人從鄰國返回到這里，因?yàn)樗麄冊(cè)谀莾赫也坏焦ぷ?，既不能在孟買扭鋼筋，也不能在蘇拉特磨鉆石?？偟膩碚f，印度貧困地區(qū)的人民因其貧困而免受經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的影響，因?yàn)?，既然沒有可靠就業(yè)和大量的財(cái)務(wù)資產(chǎn)，也就不會(huì)在經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)中喪失。

In Rajasthan, this resilience is also the result of government policy.The National Rural Employment Guarantee Act(NREGA), extended to every rural district in April 2008, is supposed to offer 100 days of work a year, at the minimum wage, to every rural household that needs it.Rajasthan, a parched state with a long history of drought-relief works, comes closer to fulfilling that promise than anywhere else, providing 68 days of work on average in the year to March 2008, according to a survey published in Frontline, an Indian newsweekly.Vijay Pura is cross-hatched with hard-packed roads built by people on the act’s payroll.Thanks to the roll-out of the NREGA and a hike in the minimum wage, “People here are feeling a sense of security for the first time,” says Shankar Singh of the MKSS.在拉賈斯坦邦，這次經(jīng)濟(jì)反彈也是政府政策的產(chǎn)物。2008年四月全國農(nóng)村地區(qū)就業(yè)保證法案擴(kuò)展到了每一個(gè)農(nóng)村地區(qū)，在最低工資下有望在一年里提供100天的工作時(shí)間給每一個(gè)需要的家庭。發(fā)表在印度的一家新聞周刊《前線》的調(diào)查顯示，從今年到2008年三月，拉賈斯坦邦這個(gè)有著悠久抗旱歷史的的“旱邦”將提供平均68天的工作時(shí)間，相對(duì)其他地方離兌現(xiàn)承諾更近了。維杰.普拉位于幾條硬化路的交叉點(diǎn)上，這些路是就業(yè)保證法案覆蓋到的雇員修建的。幸虧有該法案的出臺(tái)及最低工資水平的提高，“這里的人們第一次有了一種安全感，”MKSS的成員香卡.辛格說。

The strength of rural demand is one reason why India escaped from the crisis so lightly.Sales of many “fast-moving” consumer goods, such as shampoo and toothpaste, are now growing faster in the villages than in the cities.Rural India’s purchases of chyawanprash, an ayurvedic paste that eases digestion and bolsters the immune system, outpaced urban India’s by over six percentage points in the second quarter.And Maruti Suzuki, India’s biggest carmaker, more than doubled its sales in rural areas in the year to March 2009.農(nóng)村地區(qū)的需求力量是印度得以如此輕易地從金融危機(jī)中脫身的原因之一。許多諸如洗發(fā)水、牙膏之類的快速消費(fèi)品需求如今在農(nóng)村比城市要增長得更快些。第二季度，一些有助于消化、增強(qiáng)免疫系統(tǒng)的阿叔吠陀膏藥chyawanprash的農(nóng)村消費(fèi)比城鎮(zhèn)超出六個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，且截至2009年3月，印度最大的汽車制造商馬魯?shù)兮從驹谵r(nóng)村地區(qū)的汽車銷量翻了一番還多.India’s economy is now on the cusp of an historic transition.印度經(jīng)濟(jì)正經(jīng)歷歷史性轉(zhuǎn)型

But, having weathered the financial crisis, rural India must now weather the weather.The monsoon rains, which feed India’s unirrigated farmland, have been fickle, inflicting drought on almost half of India’s districts, followed by floods in some areas as the monsoon departed.In a worst-case scenario, India’s agricultural output could shrink by up to 7% in the fiscal year ending in March 2010, according to Citigroup.That would drag India’s GDP growth down to 5.2%, slower than in the thick of the financial crisis.但是度過了這次金融危機(jī)后，印度農(nóng)村還要扛得過氣候問題。哺育印度干旱農(nóng)田的季風(fēng)雨反復(fù)無常，使一半以上的印度地區(qū)遭受旱災(zāi)的折磨，接著便是季風(fēng)過后在一些地區(qū)發(fā)生的澇災(zāi)?；ㄆ旒瘓F(tuán)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，到2010年3月的財(cái)政，印度的農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)出在最糟糕的情況下將會(huì)以7%的速度萎縮，這將使印度的GDP增長減少到5.2%，比金融危機(jī)風(fēng)起云涌時(shí)還要低。

The drought will raise food prices, adding to inflation.India is already the only big economy where consumer prices are rising faster now than they were before the crisis.The price of pulses rose by 20% in the year to August 28th;the price of sugar by 35%.That will force the Reserve Bank of India to tighten monetary policy.Goldman Sachs expects it to raise rates by as much as three percentage points in 2010.Spending on drought relief will also add to the government’s yawning fiscal deficit, which will exceed 10% of GDP this fiscal year, if the budget gaps of the state governments are included.干旱將抬高食品價(jià)格，助長通貨膨脹。當(dāng)前印度現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)是唯一一個(gè)消費(fèi)者價(jià)格比危機(jī)前上升更快的大經(jīng)濟(jì)體了，截至今年8月28日，價(jià)格已以5%的幅度上升，其中糖價(jià)上升35%，這將迫使印度儲(chǔ)備銀行收緊貨幣政策。高盛預(yù)期印度的價(jià)格指數(shù)將在2010年上升3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。對(duì)旱災(zāi)的賑濟(jì)開支將加劇政府本已高企的財(cái)政赤字，如果加上各邦政府的預(yù)算缺口在內(nèi)，2010年的財(cái)政赤字將超過GDP的10%。

The monsoon once decided India’s economic fate.Now it only influences it.Agriculture’s share of India’s national output has dropped from 40% 30 years ago to 17% in 2009.Indeed, India’s economy is now on the cusp of an historic transition.In 2010 agriculture will account for a smaller share of GDP than manufacturing: India’s output of widgets will exceed its output of wheat, rice, cotton and the other fruits of the land.The factory will surpass the farm.季風(fēng)曾經(jīng)決定印度經(jīng)濟(jì)的命運(yùn)，現(xiàn)在則只能起影響作用。農(nóng)業(yè)在印度全國產(chǎn)出的比重已從三十年前的40%跌到2009年的17%.不錯(cuò)，印度經(jīng)濟(jì)正處在歷史性轉(zhuǎn)型的關(guān)頭，GDP中農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)值將比制造業(yè)占有更小的比重：印度小機(jī)械產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)值將超過小麥，水稻，棉花和其他一些農(nóng)作物。工廠將超越農(nóng)場。

Return to the glory days

回到崢嶸歲月

That is not just because agriculture is poised to shrink.Manufacturing, which stagnated during the crisis, should recover smartly in 2010.It was already growing by over 7% in July 2009, according to the index of industrial production.Investment in new plant and machinery will get a boost from the return of foreign capital inflows, some $44.1 billion in the year to March 2010 and $52.1 billion the following year, according to Rohini Malkani of Citigroup.About 35-40% of those flows will be foreign direct investment.這不僅僅是因?yàn)檗r(nóng)業(yè)準(zhǔn)備要收縮，在金融危機(jī)中停滯的制造業(yè)將在2010年悄然復(fù)蘇，工業(yè)生產(chǎn)指數(shù)顯示其在2009年7月已經(jīng)增長7%強(qiáng)。依照花旗集團(tuán)的（首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家）羅希尼?馬爾卡尼的觀點(diǎn)，在國際資本回流的幫助下，廠房和機(jī)器投資將在2010年3月及接下來的一年分別獲得441億、521億美元的極大提振，其中約35%-40%將屬于國外直接投資。

India’s historians often hark back to the glory days of manufacturing in the 18th century, when Indian artisans produced calicoes and other fabrics of such appeal that Britain’s spinners, weavers and printers clamoured(successfully)for import bans to protect their livelihoods.印度的歷史學(xué)家常常重提18世紀(jì)制造業(yè)的崢嶸歲月，那時(shí)印度的能工巧匠們生產(chǎn)白羊布及其他一些類似的纖維織物，這引起英國的紡紗工人、織布工和印染工嚷嚷著（成功地）頒布進(jìn)口禁令以保護(hù)他們的生計(jì)。

During Britain’s industrial revolution, however, Indian weavers were “thrown back on the soil”.India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, wrote that India’s industrial destiny had been thwarted by imperial economics.In 2010, thanks to a failure of the monsoon and a recovery of the world economy, India’s agriculture will at last give way to its manufacturing prowess.然而，英國工業(yè)革命期間,印度的紡織工“被摔在了地上”，印度第一任總理賈瓦哈拉爾.尼赫魯寫道：印度工業(yè)的命運(yùn)已經(jīng)被英帝國經(jīng)濟(jì)所擊倒。多虧雨水不足的雨季和世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇，印度2010年的農(nóng)業(yè)最終將讓位于制造技術(shù)。

發(fā)表于09:00 | 閱讀全文 | 評(píng)論 19 | 編輯 | 分享 0 ? 西班牙賭博業(yè):全民賭博

2009-12-19

Spain's El Gordo lottery 西班牙的“大肥彩”

Gamblers united 大家聯(lián)手賭一把

Dec 17th 2009 | MADRID From The Economist print edition

How an original business model got Spaniards hooked 一個(gè)古老的商業(yè)模式緣何讓西班牙人全民皆賭

IT IS called El Gordo(“the Fatty”)because of the huge amount it pays out: *2.3 billion($3.3 billion)in this year’s draw, to be held on December 22nd.Yet Spain’s Christmas lottery is notable not just for the vast sums to be won, but also for its clever business model.我們稱它為“大肥彩”（El Gordo(“the Fatty”)），是因?yàn)樗鼘⒃诮衲?2月22號(hào)開出的超級(jí)巨額大頭彩--23億歐元（33億美元）。但是西班牙的圣誕博彩之所以值得一提，不僅僅因?yàn)樗峁┑木揞~獎(jiǎng)金，還因?yàn)樗鞯纳虡I(yè)運(yùn)作模式。

Spaniards are not especially big gamblers, with spending per head below the average for the European Union, according to a 2006 study by London Economics, a consultancy.Yet they spend about *12 billion a year on lottery tickets, over 1% of GDP—almost as much as the country spends on research and development.Roughly three-quarters of them participate in the Christmas lottery.西班牙人其實(shí)不算愛賭博。根據(jù)某咨詢公司“倫敦經(jīng)濟(jì)”（London Economics）2006年的一項(xiàng)研究，西班牙的人均博彩開銷低于歐盟的平均水平。但是，他們每年在買彩票上花的錢達(dá)120億歐元，占本國GDP的1%上，幾乎和該國的研發(fā)開支齊平。其中，大約有四分之三的人會(huì)參加圣誕節(jié)期間的那次開彩。

Loterías y Apuestas del Estado, the government agency that runs El Gordo and other lotteries during the year, encourages mass participation by dividing each *200 ticket into décimos, or tenths, which sell for *20.This, in turn, allows players to improve their odds by buying small shares in many tickets, often by forming syndicates with friends and colleagues.The lottery also offers enough smaller prizes in addition to its jackpots to give participants almost a one-in-six chance of winning something.每年管理“大肥彩”和其他一些樂透的政府機(jī)構(gòu)Loterías y Apuestas del Estado，通過將每張200歐的彩票分割成10小張，每小張售20歐的方式，鼓勵(lì)國民的廣泛參與。這樣一來，參與者可以在更多大張彩票中購買數(shù)張小額股份，而這一般可通過與朋友同事合購的方式實(shí)現(xiàn)。除了頭彩，它還設(shè)置了很多小額的獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)，使得參與者基本上每抽六次，就可以贏回點(diǎn)東西。

All this has transformed the lottery from a glorified tax on the poor, as it is in most countries, into part of the social fabric.Sharing tickets at Christmas has become a way to reinforce social ties, says Roberto Garvía, a visiting professor at Georgetown University.The practice of forming syndicates, which initially started in the 19th century when lottery tickets became too expensive for working-class folk, has become a tradition among all classes.As one banker says, “I don’t want to be the only idiot who has to turn up to work if the office number wins.” Even the Spanish Civil War did not succeed in shaking the lottery’s grip: each side held its own Christmas draw.這一切使得博彩業(yè)由一種被美化了的向窮人征收的稅收（多數(shù)國家都是這樣的情況），變成了社會(huì)生活中的一元素?！霸谑フQ節(jié)和別人湊份子買彩票已經(jīng)成了強(qiáng)化社會(huì)關(guān)系的紐帶?！眴讨味卮髮W(xué)（Georgetown University）的做客教授Roberto Garvía如是說道。湊份子的做法最初起源于19世紀(jì)，因?yàn)楫?dāng)時(shí)的彩票貴得讓工人階層買不起。后來，這個(gè)傳統(tǒng)就在各個(gè)階層就傳下來了。正如某個(gè)崽銀行職員說的：“我可不像成為那個(gè)全辦公室人都中獎(jiǎng)了，卻得繼續(xù)一個(gè)人埋頭工作的那個(gè)傻蛋兒?！?/p>

The biggest winner is the Spanish government, which receives 30% of the revenue from ticket sales, less the running costs.But it need not feel too exploitative, argue Mr Garvía and Mauro Guillén of the Wharton School of Business, who have studied lottery syndicates along with Andrés Santana of the Fundación March: “There is some evidence that at Christmas time, syndicates lure into the lottery the relatively wealthy, which might make it less regressive.”

最大的贏家是西班牙政府，它們從彩票銷售收入中可以獲得30%的收益，還不包括運(yùn)營成本?！暗且矝]必要覺得被剝削了”，沃頓商學(xué)院的Mr Garvía和Mauro Guillén解圍道。他們?cè)?jīng)和“前進(jìn)基金會(huì)”（Fundación March）的Andrés Santana一起研究過博彩業(yè)中湊份子現(xiàn)象這一課題。他們解釋道：“數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在圣誕節(jié)期間，湊份子的做法會(huì)吸引更多相對(duì)富有的人購買彩票，這就使得它更像是一個(gè)累積稅。”

發(fā)表于01:09 | 閱讀全文 | 評(píng)論 5 | 編輯 | 分享 0 ? 銀行業(yè)競爭：速度為王

2009-12-04

A special report on business and finance in Brazil

Survival of the quickest 最速者生存

Nov 12th 2009 From The Economist print edition

Frequent crises have made for strong banks and nimble financiers 頻繁發(fā)生危機(jī)已使銀行更健全，金融業(yè)者思惟更敏捷

BRAZILIAN businessmen often say that the country’s recent economic past has strengthened companies, and especially banks.The argument goes like this: you need to be good, or at least inventive, to survive and make money when you have no idea whether inflation next year will be 50% or 500%.Bankers and finance directors have had to be particularly nimble.One example is Souza Cruz(a subsidiary of BAT), Brazil’s largest tobacco company, which in the days of high inflation did no better than break even on its cigarette sales.Its profits came from the interest on the cash it held between being paid by retailers and paying tax fortnightly.Companies used to operating in such unusual circumstances flourished when life became more predictable.巴西商人經(jīng)常說，巴西最近在經(jīng)濟(jì)上的經(jīng)歷增強(qiáng)了公司體質(zhì)，尤其是銀行業(yè)。類似說法包括︰貴公司必須體質(zhì)更好（或至少具備創(chuàng)新能力）以存活下來，在意想不到的時(shí)機(jī)賺大錢，無論明年通貨膨脹將是50%或500%。尤其，銀行業(yè)者和金融主管的思惟必須更敏捷靈活。舉一個(gè)例子，巴西最大煙草商Souza Cruz（英美煙草BAT子公司）在高通膨期間，香煙銷量甚至幾乎與歇業(yè)時(shí)期一樣。該公司卻從零售商支付貨款與隔周繳稅之間的盈余現(xiàn)金衍生利息上獲利。當(dāng)景氣轉(zhuǎn)好時(shí)，過去習(xí)慣于在非常時(shí)期經(jīng)營的公司就發(fā)大財(cái)了。

There is some truth to this argument, even though it brushes aside the fact that until the 1990s Brazilian companies did not have to worry about foreign competitors.No big companies went bust in the recent financial crisis, despite losses on foreign-exchange derivatives that the Bank for International Settlements estimates at $25 billion.Moreover, no big banks wobbled, let alone had to be rescued, though there were some mergers.有一些事實(shí)可以支撐這個(gè)說法，即使該說法漠視在巴西公司企業(yè)在1990年代之前從不必?fù)?dān)心外國競爭者的事實(shí)。盡管國際結(jié)算銀行估計(jì)，最近金融海嘯期間巴西外匯損失高達(dá)250億美元，但沒有任何一家大型企業(yè)破產(chǎn)。此外也沒有一家大型銀行財(cái)務(wù)不穩(wěn)，遑論需要政府救援，但有發(fā)生一些合并。

One reason was that a previous round of bank failures, in 1994, had already cleared out the bad ones.Until then banks made their profits by taking deposits from customers, lending the money to the government overnight and pocketing the difference.With inflation at several hundred per cent a year, many banks’ balance-sheets were hard to decipher.When inflation came down, it became clear that a number of them were insolvent.These folded or merged with other banks, leaving only the stronger ones.理由之一是1994年前一波銀行倒閉，已經(jīng)清理了體質(zhì)較差的銀行。在那之前，這些銀行藉由提領(lǐng)客戶存款、一夜之間借錢給政府并裝進(jìn)別人的口袋來賺取利潤。由于一年內(nèi)通膨高達(dá)幾個(gè)百分之七八百，很多銀行資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表根本無法判讀。當(dāng)通膨來臨，很明顯許多銀行面臨破產(chǎn)。這些銀行紛紛倒閉或與其它銀行合并，只留下體質(zhì)較健全的銀行。

Brazil’s financial system got a further boost from reforms carried out when Arminio Fraga was governor of the central bank from 1999 until the start of 2003(he is now at Gávea Investimentos, an investment firm).The country’s bank-settlement system now operates in real time, so all banks know their cash positions at any given moment and the central bank has an overall picture of what is happening.Before this system was introduced the central bank often ended up honouring the debts of banks that went bust, creating a dangerous incentive to be careless.Both Mr Fraga and his successor as governor, Henrique Meirelles, have made sure that banks report what is going on in any off-balance-sheet vehicles they have funded.This has helped to keep under control the special investment vehicles, conduits and other mysterious creatures that have caused so much damage in other countries.巴西金融體系在Arminio Fraga擔(dān)任央行行長期間（1999至2003年初）進(jìn)行大刀闊斧改革并獲得大幅提升，目前他擔(dān)任投資公司Gávea Investimentos總裁。巴西的銀行結(jié)算制度目前以實(shí)時(shí)方式運(yùn)作，因此所有銀行在任何時(shí)刻都能掌握自己的現(xiàn)金狀況，而央行則掌控各銀行實(shí)時(shí)情況的總圖。這套制度引進(jìn)之前，央行經(jīng)常要收拾殘局支付破產(chǎn)銀行的債務(wù)，建立了危險(xiǎn)誘因卻不自知。Arminio Fraga和下一任行長Henrique Meirelles，確保各銀行的報(bào)表在他們?cè)O(shè)立之不列入資產(chǎn)負(fù)債的任何平臺(tái)上繼續(xù)運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。這些有利于控管曾在其它國家造成嚴(yán)重傷害的特別投資平臺(tái)、管道和其它神秘工具。

This transparency extends to financial markets too.All fund managers must disclose the net asset value of their funds to Brazil’s Securities and Exchange Commission(CVM)daily, though with a 48-hour delay.At the end of every month funds must disclose what they were holding 90 days ago.Anyone can go to the CVM’s website and look up these numbers.Fund managers may grumble about too much disclosure, but most are happy with the rules.Maria Helena Santana, who chairs the CVM, explains that they make it harder to pull off a scam of the sort run by Bernard Madoff, whose pyramid scheme was hidden behind a veil of secrecy.此一透明制度亦延伸至金融市場。所有基金經(jīng)理人每天必須向巴西證券交易委員會(huì)（CVM）公開他們手上基金的凈資產(chǎn)價(jià)值，但有48小時(shí)延遲。在每個(gè)月底，各檔基金必須公開他們90天以前的持股比例，任何人都可以去CVM的網(wǎng)站查閱這些數(shù)字?；鸾?jīng)理人雖然可能因公開太多而牢騷滿腹，但大多數(shù)經(jīng)理人都樂于接受法規(guī)約束。CVM主席Maria Helena Santana闡述，他們會(huì)使Bernard Madoff操作的詐騙手法（藏身在秘密面紗后的樹狀網(wǎng)）更難抽身。

Created equal 建立公平制度

Equity investors, for their part, have benefited from new rules for publicly traded companies brought in by the S?o Paulo stock exchange(Bovespa)in 2002.Big Brazilian companies used to be notorious for abusing shareholders with minority stakes.Under current guidelines, it is illegal to issue shares that pay out different amounts to different holders in the event of a takeover.Any disputes between shareholders are judged by the CVM.With these rules in place, foreigners have been happy to buy shares and Brazilian companies that were unable to borrow in capital markets are now able to finance their expansion.適用于公開上市公司的新法規(guī)在2002年引進(jìn)圣保羅股市（Bovespa）后，股票投資人亦因而獲利。巴西大型企業(yè)過去因坑殺持股少數(shù)的小股東而臭名昭彰。根據(jù)現(xiàn)今規(guī)范，在收購過程配發(fā)不同股東不同股息比例的股票就是非法的。股東之間的任何爭論由CVM裁判。由于這些法規(guī)到位，外資樂于購買巴西股票，過去在資本市場借不到錢的巴西企業(yè)，現(xiàn)在可以籌措資金大展鴻圖。

A boom in initial public offerings(IPOs)followed.At its height, in 2007, 80% of the money for IPOs came from foreign investors.This undoubtedly led to some excesses: at one point there were more listed housebuilders in Brazil than in America.But some of the companies that floated will do well.And the message conveyed by the new rules—that better corporate governance allows people to make money by selling bits of their companies on the stock exchange—has been good for the family businesses that make up the bulk of Brazil’s medium-sized firms.首次公開售股（IPOs）的榮景接踵而至。極盛時(shí)期，2007年，八成左右的IPOs資金來自外資。這無疑造成了某些過度現(xiàn)象︰巴西股票上市的房屋營造商曾經(jīng)一度比美國的還要多。但是，某些流通股票的公司反而業(yè)績亮眼。并且，新的法規(guī)傳達(dá)出一種訊息──更好的公司管理允許員工利用出售部分公司持股在股市賺錢──對(duì)于構(gòu)成巴西中型企業(yè)絕大部分的家族企業(yè)而言絕對(duì)有益。

Reuters

Plenty to Celebrate 很多事情值得慶祝

Santander Brasil’s recent IPO was a test of whether investors’ appetite for Brazil had returned.It proved to be the world’s largest IPO this year, valuing the bank’s Brazilian subsidiary at more than the whole of Deutsche Bank worldwide.The government is so worried about foreign portfolio investors pushing up the value of the real that it imposed a 2% tax in October to discourage them.IPOs have a wider benefit because companies that want to float all or part of their stock need to get their accounts in order, pay their taxes and make sure their workers are not part of the black economy.Santander Brasil（土生金銀行巴西子公司）最近一次IPO就是外資是否對(duì)于巴西恢復(fù)信心的測試。這次發(fā)行被證實(shí)為今年全球最大一筆IPO，使得 Santander銀行巴西子公司資產(chǎn)超越了全球Deutsche Bank（德意志銀行）的總和。巴西政府非常擔(dān)心外資持股投資人會(huì)讓黑奧（巴西幣）強(qiáng)勁升值，于是在今年十月征收2%稅金以阻擋外資進(jìn)場。IPOs擁有很大利益，想要流通全部或部分股票的公司需要按順序建立自己的賬戶、支付自己的稅款，并確保自己的員工不是逃稅的黑市經(jīng)濟(jì)之一。

All this has brought sophistication and liquidity to Brazil’s financial markets.S?o Paulo’s futures and options market is one of the five largest in the world by volume traded.Well-developed markets have been good for consumers too.High interest rates, high inflation and dysfunctional courts once made consumer credit rarer than snow.Thanks in part to a series of reforms carried out in Lula’s first term, credit has grown steadily.Loans for bigger items, such as cars and apartments, have become available for the first time, thanks to a new law under which a lender remains the owner of the asset acquired with the loan until the last repayment is made, whereas previously the money would have had to be chased up through the courts.所有這些已經(jīng)讓巴西金融市場更加成熟和流動(dòng)。以交易量而言，圣保羅期貨市場排名全球五大期貨市場之一，完善發(fā)展的市場也對(duì)于消費(fèi)者有益。高利率、高通膨和功能不彰的法院一度使消費(fèi)者貸款消失殆盡。部分歸因于魯拉總統(tǒng)第一任期進(jìn)行的一連串改革，消費(fèi)者融資已經(jīng)穩(wěn)定成長。大筆金額（例：汽車和公寓）的貸款第一次可以提供，歸因于一項(xiàng)新法，出借人在收回最后一筆償債之前仍是那筆貸款的資產(chǎn)擁有人，不像從前債務(wù)必須經(jīng)由法院去追蹤。

Lula’s first administration also introduced a new bankruptcy law that is credited with making it slightly easier to salvage something from companies that go under.There was room for improvement: a few years ago a World Bank study found that bankruptcy proceedings in Brazil took an average of ten years and left creditors with just two cents in every dollar owed.魯拉的第一任政府亦引進(jìn)了新破產(chǎn)法，提供貸款使得搶救某些公司免于破產(chǎn)更為容易。還有需要改進(jìn)的空間︰幾年前，世界銀行的一項(xiàng)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)破產(chǎn)程序在巴西平均要花十年工夫，而債權(quán)人僅能從每一美元的欠債拿回兩美分。

Yet for all this progress, two glaring problems with Brazil’s financial system remain.First, credit is very expensive.Second, only the government will lend for long periods, and not to everyone.可是，由于全部這些發(fā)展使巴西金融制度留下兩個(gè)耀眼問題。首先，融資非常昂貴。其次，只有政府可以辦理長期借款，而且不是提供給每個(gè)人。

Tax and lend 征稅和放款

Brazil has a hybrid retail banking system, with state-controlled and private-sector banks competing directly.It is highly concentrated: Itaú Unibanco, the largest private bank, is among the world’s 15 biggest on several measures and yet has almost no presence outside Brazil.Banco do Brasil, the largest state-controlled bank and one of the world’s oldest financial institutions, vies with it for the title of the country’s biggest bank.All told, credit from state-controlled banks makes up 37.6% of the total and has recently been growing.巴西擁有一套混合的零售金融制度，由國營銀行與民營銀行直接競爭。這是高度集中的︰巴西最大的民營銀行Itaú Unibanco，從某些標(biāo)準(zhǔn)而言排名全球十五大銀行之列，但在巴西以外幾乎不存在。最大國營銀行和全球最古老的金融機(jī)構(gòu)之一Banco do Brasil（巴西銀行），與Itaú Unibanco競爭巴西最大銀行頭銜。據(jù)說，國營銀行的融資金額占總金額37.6%，并且最近還在成長。

Despite their different owners, the state-controlled and the private banks seem to be behaving in a remarkably similar way.Aldemir Bendini, the chief executive of Banco do Brasil, talks enthusiastically about international expansion.The bank will soon open five agencies in America to serve Brazilian expatriates.It also wants to help Brazilian multinationals abroad with local-currency financing.Meanwhile it will keep up its role as an instrument of public policy that does the bidding of the federal government, its biggest shareholder, and also look after the 22% of its shareholders who own traded stock.It looks like an incongruous mixture, but it appears to work.Itaú Unibanco too is keen on expansion abroad, but makes so much money at home that it does not seem to be in a rush.盡管他們的所有人不同，但國營和民營銀行在行為表現(xiàn)上卻似乎非常相似。Banco do Brasil首席執(zhí)行長Aldemir Bendini熱情地談?wù)撛趪H上的擴(kuò)展業(yè)務(wù)。該銀行不久將在美國開設(shè)五家分行，提供給移居國外的巴西人，亦想要以當(dāng)?shù)刎泿湃谫Y協(xié)助在海外的巴西跨國企業(yè)。同時(shí)將保持身為公共政策執(zhí)行工具的角色，替最大股東聯(lián)邦政府進(jìn)行國際招標(biāo)作業(yè)，并且照顧持有上市交易股票比例22%的一般股東。雖然看起來像是不和諧的混合物，但Banco do Brasil似乎卻工作。Itaú Unibanco亦對(duì)擴(kuò)展國外業(yè)務(wù)有強(qiáng)烈興趣，但在國內(nèi)賺了太多錢，好像一點(diǎn)都不匆忙。

In theory, all this should provide plenty of competition, with the two types of bank keeping each other honest and making sure that Brazilians have access to credit.In practice it does not quite work like that.Even though Itaú alone has 25,000 cash points, more than 500 municipalities in Brazil lack even a single bank branch.The two kinds of bank compete most fiercely in the comparatively wealthy south and south-east of the country.Banco do Brasil recently added to the geographical concentration by buying Nossa Caixa, a S?o Paulo state savings bank, and a large stake in Banco Votorantim, a private-sector bank.理論上，這一切應(yīng)該提供大量競爭力，讓兩種不同類型銀行維持彼此誠實(shí)并確保巴西民眾可以取得融資。實(shí)際上，卻完全不是那么回事。雖然單就Itaú銀行而言就有25,000家分行，但巴西五百多個(gè)市鎮(zhèn)甚至連一家分行都沒有。兩家銀行在巴西最富裕的南部和東南部激烈競爭，Banco do Brasil最近藉由并購圣保羅州營儲(chǔ)蓄銀行Nossa Caixa及民營銀行Banco Votorantim的大半股份，來增加在地理上的集中性。

The government has raised the limit for foreign participation in Banco do Brasil to 20% to attract more capital, but the state-controlled banks are not as well run as the private-sector ones, so the hoped-for competition has not materialised.The clearest sign of this is spreads—the difference between a bank’s cost of borrowing and lending.The Institute for Industrial Development, a lobby group, calculates that average lending rates are 35% higher than deposit rates, against less than 10% in the other BRIC countries.The bankers’ lobby disputes these figures, but nobody thinks that banks’ spreads are thin.巴西政府已將外資入股Banco do Brasil的比例限制提高至兩成以吸引更多資本，但國營銀行并不像民營銀行經(jīng)營完善，因此期盼的競爭一直未具體化。銀行擴(kuò)張業(yè)務(wù)最明顯的征兆──銀行存放款成本之間的價(jià)差。游說團(tuán)體「工業(yè)發(fā)展研究院」計(jì)算，巴西平均放款利率較存款比率高出35%，其它金磚國家則不及10%。雖然銀行業(yè)者的游說團(tuán)還在爭吵這些數(shù)字，但沒人相信銀行的擴(kuò)張仍嫌不足。

Among the things that make them fatter are a curious tax on bank funding that increases costs, and high reserve requirements which mean that banks must squeeze more revenue from what they are able to lend.Bad-loan provisions are high too, reflecting the fact that consumer credit is concentrated among people who are already stretched.And a lot of credit is subsidised, which pushes up costs for the rest.其中，銀行在籌募資金過程巧立名目增稅使放款成本提高讓銀行業(yè)者的油水更多，而高額準(zhǔn)備金需求意味銀行必須從他們的放款能力賺取更多收入。呆帳金額也水漲船高，反映了消費(fèi)者融資集中在展延償債期限者的事實(shí)。而且許多融資接受補(bǔ)助，抬高了其它項(xiàng)目的成本。

Brazil’s banks have many things to recommend them;indeed they seem to exemplify what might happen if regulators elsewhere got their every wish.They are safe and their lending is well-capitalised and profitable.Two-thirds of Brazilian deposits are in local banks, which is unusually high for Latin America and a big change from the past, when anyone who had money kept it out of the country and in dollars.The banks also offer some things that would surprise American or European customers.Many ATMs provide a wide range of financial services, from dispensing cash to providing loans.Even so, for now credit is likely to remain too expensive for the country’s good.巴西各銀行做了很多事情使他們受到歡迎；假若其它地方的金管官員想要達(dá)成每一愿望，他們甚至可以舉證未來可能發(fā)生的情況。巴西銀行很安全且放款資本充足和有盈利。巴西三分之二的存款在地方銀行，這對(duì)拉美國家而言是非常罕見的偏高，過去有錢人喜歡在國外以美元開戶存款，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)發(fā)生了變化。銀行亦提供一些令歐美客戶驚訝的服務(wù)。很多自動(dòng)提款機(jī)提供各種金融服務(wù)，從提領(lǐng)現(xiàn)金到提供借款。雖然如此，目前融資很可能對(duì)于巴西利益來說仍然太貴了。

For companies trying to get credit, the problems are much the same.To make up for the absence of a market in long-term debt Brazil created a giant development bank, the BNDES, with a balance-sheet larger than the World Bank’s.This is financed by an impost on labour and lends predominantly to Brazil’s biggest companies—the opposite of what you would expect from a left-leaning country.對(duì)于試圖取得融資的公司來說，面對(duì)的問題幾乎大同小異。為了彌補(bǔ)長期負(fù)債期間欠缺一個(gè)市場，巴西成立巨型開發(fā)銀行BNDES（國營經(jīng)社發(fā)展銀行），資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表金額甚至較世界銀行還大。BNDES從勞務(wù)稅取得資金而以巴西最大企業(yè)為主要放款對(duì)象──可以預(yù)期來自左傾國家的反對(duì)。

Because its large loans to Brazil’s big names carry so little risk, the BNDES is profitable.It also does some more adventurous lending, although trickier credit assessments are farmed out to private banks, which collect a fee for their pains and also assume the risk of loans going bad.The BNDES was useful to Brazil during the recent crisis as a stable source of funding, but its scale as the lender of choice for Brazil’s best credit risks is probably impeding the development of markets in long-term debt, and the way it is funded seems fundamentally unjust.因?yàn)锽NDES提供巴西大型企業(yè)的大筆貸款承擔(dān)較少風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，所以BNDES仍是賺錢的。BNDES亦進(jìn)行一些較具風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性的放款，但較棘手的信用評(píng)等則外包給民營銀行，民營銀行因承擔(dān)痛苦而收取費(fèi)用，亦假定貸款的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)會(huì)變得更糟。BNDES在最近金融海嘯期間作為穩(wěn)定的資金來源，對(duì)于巴西非常受用，但作為巴西最佳融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的放款者，BNDES的規(guī)模或許妨礙了長期負(fù)債期間的市場發(fā)展，而且BNDES取得資金的方式似乎基本上有欠公平。

Still, compared with the bank failures, frauds, market manipulation, volatility, disregard for contracts and near-absence of credit of the past, Brazil’s financial sector has come a long way.Foreign investors have noticed, and have recently started pouring money into the country.盡管如此，與銀行倒閉、欺詐、市場操控、反復(fù)無常，漠視合約及過去的幾乎缺乏融資相比較，巴西金融業(yè)已經(jīng)走了很長的路。外資已經(jīng)注意到了，最近已經(jīng)開始讓熱錢涌入巴西。

發(fā)表于00:35 | 閱讀全文 | 評(píng)論 15 | 編輯 | 分享1 ? 奧普拉.溫芙蕾：結(jié)束脫口秀生涯

2009-12-04

Schumpeter

Brand royalty

Nov 26th 2009 From The Economist print edition

Oprah Winfrey's brand has many years of life left in it yet

Illustration by Brett Ryder

IT WAS one of the most tear-stained moments in the 24-year history of a show that specialises in tear-stained moments.On November 20th Oprah Winfrey announced that she will end her eponymous show in September 2011, 26 years after it first aired nationwide.She loves her show enough to know when it is time to say goodbye, she told her traumatised audience.這是24年的專注于打動(dòng)人心的節(jié)目生涯中最令人熱淚盈眶的時(shí)刻。11月20號(hào)，奧普拉.溫芙蕾宣布將于2011年結(jié)束她的同名脫口秀節(jié)目。該節(jié)目已在全國廣播了26年。奧普拉告訴極度愕然的聽眾，她很愛她的節(jié)目，因此知道什么時(shí)候該說再見。

The sound of ululation could be heard from sea to shining sea.For once the pundits sang the same song as “real Americans”—as one of Ms Winfrey’s recent guests, Sarah Palin, likes to call them.They talked breathlessly about Ms Winfrey’s up-from-the-bootstraps achievements—how she came from nothing to amass a fortune of $2.3 billion and how she has viewers in more than 100 countries—and pronounced her retirement the end of an era.The New York Times’s Gail Collins added that she wished politicians, from the 92-year-old Robert Byrd on down, would follow her example and quit while they are ahead.啜泣聲從西海岸傳到了東海岸。曾經(jīng)，權(quán)威人士唱著同樣的歌“真正的美國人”--如溫芙蕾女士的最近一位嘉賓，莎拉.佩林就喜歡這樣稱呼。他們談?wù)撝鴾剀嚼倥靠孔陨韸^斗一步一步取得的成就--她是怎樣從一無所有到聚集了23億美元的財(cái)富，擁有100多個(gè)國家的觀眾--并宣告她的退役是一個(gè)時(shí)代的結(jié)束。紐約時(shí)報(bào)的蓋爾.科林斯補(bǔ)充說她想從政，從92歲的羅伯特.伯德傳下來，將以她為例，激流勇退。

The only problem with all this commentary is that Ms Winfrey is not quitting.She is ending her relationship with a big network, CBS, in order to devote herself to an ambitious new venture, a cable-television channel to be called the Oprah Winfrey Network, or OWN, which she plans to launch in January 2011 as a joint-venture with Discovery Communications.The world is about to be blessed with more Oprah, rather than less.關(guān)于這所有評(píng)論的唯一一個(gè)問題是，溫芙蕾女士并不是退役。她正在結(jié)束與大網(wǎng)絡(luò)CBS的合作，是為了讓自己致身于抱負(fù)遠(yuǎn)大的新的嘗試，被稱為奧普萊.溫芙蕾網(wǎng)絡(luò)的有限電視頻道，或OWN，這是她計(jì)劃于2011年公布和“發(fā)現(xiàn)探索公司”合資的一覽節(jié)目。世界即將有更多的奧普拉，而非更少。

This is a tricky transition that raises all sorts of questions about the power of personal brands.Can the star’s brand be separated from the show that has nurtured it for almost a quarter of a century? And can it be used to launch an entire network? Personal brands are easy to damage.Martha Stewart, who was once the nearest equivalent to Ms Winfrey, had started to devalue her brand even before she got into trouble with the law, spreading herself too thin and striking too many deals with retailers.The celebrities who lent their name to Planet Hollywood probably no longer relish being associated with a tacky fast-food chain that has gone bankrupt twice.“The Oprah Winfrey Show” is not just a “delivery channel” that she can close down at will: it has defined its creator for 24 years.By killing off her brand-creating show and diluting her personal contribution across an entire network, she runs the risk of enraging her fans.這是一個(gè)微妙的變化，出現(xiàn)各類關(guān)于個(gè)人品牌力量的問題。明星的品牌能與培養(yǎng)其幾乎25年的節(jié)目分開嗎？它能被用于投放整個(gè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)嗎？個(gè)人品牌很容易被破壞?，斏に箞D爾特曾經(jīng)是幾乎與溫芙蕾女士等同的人物，但甚至在她惹上法律糾紛之前就已使其品牌貶值了。過分鋪張自己的品牌，與眾多零售商簽訂交易，使得其品牌大為貶值。將自己的名字借給好萊塢星球的名人或許不再樂意與破產(chǎn)兩次的寒酸的快餐鏈聯(lián)系起來?！皧W普拉.溫芙蕾脫口秀”并不只是隨她的意志就能關(guān)閉的 “輸送頻道”：它已塑造其創(chuàng)造者24年了。溫芙蕾的離開是冒著激怒自己粉絲的危險(xiǎn)，抹滅創(chuàng)造其個(gè)人品牌的脫口秀節(jié)目以及通過整個(gè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)沖淡自己的個(gè)人貢獻(xiàn)。

But there are good commercial reasons for Ms Winfrey’s decision.The audience for network television has been declining relentlessly as viewers have migrated to cable and the internet.The audience for “The Oprah Winfrey Show” has shrunk from about 14m viewers in 1998 to about 7m today, though it still remains the highest-rated talk show.Ms Winfrey is simply following her audience into a more fragmented media world.Besides, there is nothing to stop Ms Winfrey reviving “The Oprah Winfrey Show”, or something very like it, on her new platform.但是溫芙蕾女士的決定有利好的商業(yè)因素。由于觀眾轉(zhuǎn)向有限電視和網(wǎng)絡(luò)，網(wǎng)絡(luò)電視的聽眾在不斷的減少?！皧W普拉.溫芙蕾脫口秀”節(jié)目的聽眾從1998年的 1400萬縮減到如今大約700萬，盡管其在脫口秀節(jié)目中，收視率仍占據(jù)最高。溫芙蕾女士簡單的跟隨她的聽眾的步伐，進(jìn)入更加零碎的媒體世界。此外，沒有任何東西可以阻止溫芙蕾女士復(fù)興“奧普拉.溫芙蕾脫口秀”，或在她的新的平臺(tái)上與其非常相似的東西。

Ms Winfrey also has lots of experience at relaunching herself.She reinvented the daytime talk show not once but twice—first by exposing some of her innermost secrets in public(about how she was raped at the age of nine and experimented with drugs in her 20s, for example)and second by taking her show upmarket.While Jerry Springer and his ilk filled their studios with stump-toothed degenerates, Ms Winfrey introduced her book club and encouraged her viewers to improve themselves.溫芙蕾女士也有很多重新推出自己的經(jīng)驗(yàn)。她重新創(chuàng)新了日間脫口秀不是一次，而是兩次--第一次是在公眾面前揭露自己的一些內(nèi)心秘密（例如有關(guān)她九歲時(shí)怎樣被強(qiáng)奸，20多歲時(shí)曾吸毒），第二次是談?wù)撍拿摽谛愀邫n。當(dāng)杰瑞·斯普林格.........................溫芙蕾女士引進(jìn)了讀書俱樂部并鼓勵(lì)她的觀眾提升自己。

Ms Winfrey is also an experienced brand-stretcher.She has starred in a number of successful films, most notably “The Colour Purple”, for which she was nominated for an Oscar;more importantly, she has launched a succession of Oprah-related products such as her website, Oprah.com and her magazine, O.Each time she succeeded in extending her audience without alienating her most loyal fans: a year after O’s launch in 2000 half its readers were not regular watchers of “The Oprah Winfrey Show”, including many professional women who would never dream of watching television in the afternoon.溫芙蕾女士也經(jīng)歷了品牌拓展。她在一系列成功的電影中擔(dān)任主角，最出名的是“紫色”，并被提名為奧斯卡獎(jiǎng)；最重要的是，她發(fā)布了一系列與奧普拉有關(guān)的產(chǎn)品，諸如她的網(wǎng)頁Oprah.com，她的雜志O.每次她都成功擴(kuò)展了自己的聽眾，而沒疏遠(yuǎn)自己的最忠實(shí)的粉絲：2000年，O雜志發(fā)行一年后，其讀者不再是“奧普拉.溫芙蕾脫口秀”的固定觀眾，包括很多從沒想象到自己會(huì)在下午看電視的職業(yè)女性。

Life without Oprah沒有奧普拉的生活

The biggest challenge with the cable channel will be to see whether Oprah’s brand can survive independently from the star herself.But again she has experience here.She has produced several films that deal with the classic Oprah-themes of suffering and redemption in which she did not actually appear.But the best evidence that she can make successful programmes without starring in them is her success in launching Phil McGraw.She first encountered him after she said on air that fears of mad-cow disease had put her off hamburgers;he helped her handle a lawsuit from a group of enraged Texas cattlemen.She invited him onto her show several times, and then helped him get his own program.“Dr Phil” is now the second most popular talk-show host after Ms Winfrey herself.對(duì)有線電視的最大挑戰(zhàn)就是看奧普拉品牌是否能不依靠明星自己生存下去。再一次，溫芙蕾嘗試了有線電視。她創(chuàng)作了幾部電影，涉及典型的有關(guān)受難和救贖的奧普拉主題，而她本人并沒喲出現(xiàn)在電影中。但是最能證明她能不用出任主演就能制作成功節(jié)目的是她成功激勵(lì)了菲爾·麥克格勞博士。溫芙蕾是在廣播中說害怕瘋牛病奪去自己的漢堡遭到憤怒的牛肉場主控訴時(shí)，首次遇見了菲爾·麥克格勞博士。他幫她擺平了這起控訴。溫芙蕾幾次邀請(qǐng)他到脫口秀節(jié)目，而后幫他獲得了他自己的節(jié)目?！癉r Phil”是繼溫芙蕾女士之后的第二個(gè)最有名的脫口秀主持人。

Ms Winfrey has always been a vigilant steward of her brand.Almost from the first she wrested as much control as possible from the suits at CBS—and struck famously savvy deals into the bargain.This entailed not only creating her own company, Harpo, but also her own production studio.She is also notorious for her overbearing perfectionism.Ms Winfrey has steadfastly refused to take her company public, as Ms Stewart did.She has also refused to strike deals with retailers or stick her name on merchandise, as numerous celebrity chefs and athletes have done.溫芙蕾女士一向?qū)ψ约旱钠放乒芾砭选缀鯊囊婚_始，她就要求得到CBS的更多的自由掌控權(quán)。這包括不僅是創(chuàng)造了她自己的公司Harpo，而且包括她自己的制作工作室。她也因其傲慢的十全十美主義而臭名昭著。溫芙蕾女士堅(jiān)決拒絕讓自己的公司上市，和斯圖爾特一樣。她也拒絕與零售商達(dá)成交易或?qū)⒆约旱拿仲N在商品上，就如許多名廚和運(yùn)動(dòng)員所做的。

Such vigilance about her brand is hardly a guarantee of success in the volatile and cacophonous media market.Her film version of Toni Morrison’s “Beloved” earned only $23m, less than half what it cost to make.Her earlier tentative venture into the cable market, with Oxygen Media, enjoyed limited success.But Ms Winfrey’s handful of failures are as nothing compared with her successes.Perhaps more than any of her rivals Ms Winfrey understands that it is hard to fail in the media business if you put your faith in people’s appetite for stories of those who pick themselves up from the floor and make something of their lives.她對(duì)自己品牌如此的警惕，很難保證在動(dòng)蕩噪雜的媒體市場取得成功。她的托妮·莫里森版本的電影“被愛”僅賺取2300萬美元，比其成本的一半還少。她早期嘗試與氧氣媒體合作進(jìn)入有線市場，享受著有限的成功。但溫芙蕾女士少數(shù)的失敗與成功相比，是微不足道的?；蛟S溫芙蕾女士比她的任何一個(gè)競爭對(duì)手都明白，如果你將信念對(duì)中人們的胃口，講述這些從地上爬起來的人們和在自己生活中有所得人的故事，就很難在媒體業(yè)務(wù)中失敗。

? Go for the locals 綁架本國人

Nov 26th 2009 | LAGOS From The Economist print edition

A new scourge is afflicting the rich 富豪們面臨新的不安

IT COULD not have happened to a more colourful character.Nkem Owoh, a Nollywood film star is famous for a song about financial fraud entitled ―I Go Chop Your Dollar‖.While driving along a highway in eastern Nigeria earlier this month, he was kidnapped.His abductors originally demanded 15m naira($99,000).He was freed a week later for an unknown ransom, though the local press say the gang was beaten down to a mere 1.4m naira plus the actor‘s fancy car.這本不應(yīng)發(fā)生在一個(gè)頗有爭議的人物身上。Nkem owoh，一個(gè)諾萊塢(Nollywood)電影明星，以一首諷刺財(cái)務(wù)欺詐的歌―去搶你的錢（Go Chop Your Dollar）‖而出名。這個(gè)月早些時(shí)候，當(dāng)Nkem owoh駕車行走在尼日利亞東部的一條高速公路上時(shí)，他被綁架。綁架者最初提出15萬奈拉（99,000美元）的贖金要求。一周以后他被釋放，贖金不為外人所知。但據(jù)當(dāng)?shù)孛襟w報(bào)道，他付出的贖金僅為14萬奈拉，外加他的那輛名貴小汽車。

The abduction sounds like a far-fetched script from one of Nigeria‘s popular outlandish films.But kidnapping is a serious business.Nabbing prominent Nigerians is becoming increasingly common, as gangs shift their focus from foreign oil workers to their own rich compatriots.這起綁架案聽起來好象是尼日利亞充滿異國風(fēng)味的電影里面的一個(gè)蹩腳片段。但是綁架一個(gè)嚴(yán)重的社會(huì)問題。當(dāng)犯罪團(tuán)伙轉(zhuǎn)移綁架重點(diǎn)，從綁架外國石油工人轉(zhuǎn)移到綁架他們國內(nèi)那些富豪時(shí)，尼日利亞的社會(huì)名流正日益成為他們的綁架對(duì)象。

An American security firm ranks Nigeria in the world‘s top eight kidnapping hotspots, alongside such violent places as Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia.According to the State Department, more than 50 foreigners were kidnapped between January 2008 and July this year, most of them in the Delta region, home to Nigeria‘s oil industry.Attacks on foreigners were even more frequent in 2007.Insurgents sought ransoms to draw attention to political grievances and to make cash.一家美國保安公司將尼日利亞歸類到世界上八個(gè)最易發(fā)生綁架的熱點(diǎn)地區(qū)中，這些充滿暴力的地方還包括：阿富汗、伊拉克和索馬里。據(jù)尼日利亞行政部稱，在2008年1月和今年7月之間，共有超過50名外國人被綁架，大多發(fā)生在尼日利亞的盛產(chǎn)石油的尼日爾三角洲地區(qū)。這些暴徒通過敲詐勒索，表達(dá)對(duì)國內(nèi)政治的不滿，索取錢物。

But, as foreign oil giants such as Royal Dutch Shell and ExxonMobil have tightened security and shifted professional staff out of the Delta, attackers have started looking for softer targets.Nigeria‘s authorities are most worried by the spread of kidnapping beyond the Delta.但是當(dāng)外國石油巨頭，如皇家荷蘭殼牌公司和?？松梨诠炯訌?qiáng)了保安措施，將專業(yè)人員遷移出尼日爾三角洲地區(qū)后，綁架者們開始搜尋更容易對(duì)付的目標(biāo)。而尼日利亞當(dāng)權(quán)者們最擔(dān)心綁架案蔓延到這一地區(qū)以外。

The father of Chukwuma Soludo, a former central-bank chief, was seized at the end of October in Anambra state, where his son hopes to become governor.Simeon Soludo, in his late 70s, was freed some days later.His family denies that it paid the kidnappers a ransom.A senior official in the predominantly Muslim north was also recently abducted.Yakubu Lame, Nigeria‘s minister of police affairs, said in July that 512 kidnappings had been reported in the first half of this year, against 353 for the whole of 2008.Chukwuma Soludo的父親simeon soludo是前任中央銀行總裁，十月底在阿南布拉（Anambra）州被綁架，Chukwuma Soludo有望成為該州州長。過了一些天后，快80歲的simeon soludo被釋放 , 他的家人否認(rèn)給綁架者支付過贖金。還有一個(gè)政府高官員最近在以伊斯蘭教徒為主要人口的北部地區(qū)，遭遇綁架。尼日利亞警察部長Yakubu Lame在今年7月份時(shí)說，今年前半年，上報(bào)到警察部的綁架案有512件，而2008年全年這一數(shù)字為353件。

Not so bad if you’re white 如果是外國人，則沒那么糟

At the same time, the rate of abducting foreigners is going down.Staff who remain in the Delta, rather than in smart new offices in Lagos, the commercial capital, travel in convoys and stew in guarded compounds after dark.A recent fragile peace deal in the oil-producing states, following an amnesty for rebels this summer, has also reduced the abduction rate.Of the 35 Britons known to have been snatched in the Delta since 2006, only four were taken this year, says the British government.同時(shí)，發(fā)生在外國人身上的綁架案正在下降。那些還呆在尼日爾三角洲地區(qū)——而不是在拉各斯（尼日利亞的商業(yè)中心）整潔舒服的辦公室里－－的工作人員，可以在保安人員陪同下到四處走走，天黑后還可以在有保安的院子里準(zhǔn)備晚餐。針對(duì)外國人綁架案減少的另一個(gè)原因是，今年夏天尼日利亞政府特赦了一些被關(guān)押的叛亂分子，由此換來剛剛達(dá)成的一項(xiàng)脆弱的和平協(xié)議。英國政府稱，自2006年至今，共有35人在尼日爾三角洲地區(qū)被劫走，其中發(fā)生在今年的只有四起。

Western embassies and security firms in Nigeria agree that the shift towards local victims takes the heat off them a bit.Locals are not only easier targets but also give criminals the chance to demand ransoms from emotional families rather than from an oil company‘s hard-headed anti-kidnapping team or insurance firm.在尼日利亞的西方各國使館和保安公司一致認(rèn)為，轉(zhuǎn)向針對(duì)當(dāng)?shù)厝说慕壖馨嘎晕p輕了他們的工作壓力。綁架本國人不僅易于得逞，也給了犯罪分子從情緒慌亂的家庭－－而不是從石油公司精明且講究實(shí)效的反綁架機(jī)構(gòu)或保險(xiǎn)公司－－索取贖金的機(jī)會(huì)。

Nigeria‘s government has responded to the surge with an anti-kidnapping bill, which, if passed, would mean life sentences for abductors and their accomplices.This year, to the dismay of Amnesty International, six of the country‘s 36 states have adopted the death penalty for the crime.More are considering it.針對(duì)猖獗的綁架案，尼日利亞政府提出了一項(xiàng)反綁架法案，如果獲得通過，綁架者和同謀者將被判無期徒刑。今年，針對(duì)綁架犯罪，尼日利亞36個(gè)州的6個(gè)州采用了死刑，這令特赦國際（Amnesty International）大為沮喪。而還有更多的州正考慮采用。

However, it is by no means certain that tougher penalties will stem the tide.Despite the huge oil and gas reserves of Africa‘s second-biggest economy, many Nigerians have no work, are on a daily hunt for cash, and are pumped up by the idea of instant wealth acquired by snatching a film star from his car.然而，更加嚴(yán)厲的刑罰并不意味著一定能遏制綁架浪潮。盡管尼日利亞油氣儲(chǔ)量豐富，是非洲第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體，但有許多尼日利亞人沒有工作，他們四處找錢，幻想著通過從小汽車中綁架電影明星而一夜暴富。

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A heated debate 激辯

Nov 26th 2009 From The Economist print edition

Why political orthodoxy must not silence scientific argument 為何有了政治說法，還應(yīng)有科學(xué)的辯論？

Illustration by Claudio Munoz

―WHAT is truth?‖ That was Pontius Pilate‘s answer to Jesus‘s assertion that ―Everyone that is of the truth heareth my voice.‖ It sounds suspiciously like the modern argument over climate change.―真理是什么？‖耶穌說完―相信真理的人都能聽到我‖之后，彼拉多隨即如此問道。聽起來耳熟？在當(dāng)代，氣候變化引起的爭辯就與此有相似之處。

A majority of the world‘s climate scientists have convinced themselves, and also a lot of laymen, some of whom have political power, that the Earth‘s climate is changing;that the change, from humanity‘s point of view, is for the worse;and that the cause is human activity, in the form of excessive emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide.國際上，大多數(shù)氣候科學(xué)家不但說服了自己，也說服了很多門外漢（其中包括一些有政治影響力的人）--地球的氣候正在改變；這種改變，從人道主義角度來看，是消極的；這種改變的始作俑者是人類，是他們通過排放超量的諸如二氧化碳的溫室氣體而造成的。

A minority, though, are sceptical.Some think that recent, well-grounded data suggesting the Earth‘s average temperature is rising are explained by natural variations in solar radiation, and that this trend may be coming to an end.Others argue that longer-term evidence that modern temperatures are higher than they have been for hundreds or thousands of years is actually too flaky to be meaningful.少數(shù)人對(duì)此表示懷疑。有些人提出，最近有充分的數(shù)據(jù)表明地球平均氣溫上升是由于太陽輻射的自然變化，而這種變化已接近尾聲。其他人也認(rèn)為長期的證據(jù)顯示現(xiàn)在的氣溫高于過去幾百年甚至幾千年的說法是站不住腳的。

Such disagreements are commonplace in science.They are eventually settled by the collection of more data and the invention of more refined(or entirely new)theories.Arguments may persist for decades;academics may—and often do—sling insults at each other;but it does not matter a great deal because the stakes are normally rather low.對(duì)于科學(xué)家們來說，這樣的爭論司空見慣。只要有更多的數(shù)據(jù)和更完整的（或全新的）理論，他們最終便會(huì)折服。爭論可能會(huì)持續(xù)數(shù)十年；學(xué)者們可能，實(shí)際上經(jīng)常起唇舌之爭，出言傷人，但因?yàn)橘€注通常不大，因此也無傷大雅。

The stakes in the global-warming debate, however, could scarcely be higher.Scientific evidence /that climate change is under way, is man-made, and is likely to continue happening/ forms the foundation for an edifice of policy which is intended to transform the world‘s carbon-intensive economy into one which no longer spews greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.A lot of money, and many reputations—both academic and political—are involved.然而在全球氣候變暖這邊的爭辯，賭注卻高得多。科學(xué)證據(jù)聲稱氣候變化正在進(jìn)行中，是人類之過，還很可能持續(xù)下去。于是各國政府紛紛出臺(tái)了一摞的政策，試圖把目前以碳為主導(dǎo)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式轉(zhuǎn)向清潔的發(fā)展模式。在這過程中，無論是學(xué)者還是政客，一擲千金甚至連名譽(yù)也搭上的大有人在。

Sceptics claim that this burden of responsibility is crushing the spirit of scientific inquiry.Scientists, they maintain, are under pressure to bolster the majority view.The recent publication of embarrassing e-mails from the University of East Anglia, an important centre of climate science(see article), revealing doubts about data and a determination not to air such concerns publicly, has strengthened these suspicions.懷疑者們認(rèn)為，沉重的責(zé)任正在碾碎科學(xué)探究精神。他們還堅(jiān)持認(rèn)為科學(xué)家們?yōu)榱酥С侄鄶?shù)人的觀點(diǎn)而飽受壓力的煎熬。最近曝光的一封來自東安吉利大學(xué)這所著名氣候科學(xué)研究中心的電子郵件讓人局促不安。郵件的曝光揭示的對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)的疑問和不公開這些憂慮的決心，更印證了以上的懷疑。

There is no doubt that politics and science make uncomfortable bedfellows.Politicians sell certainty.Science lives off doubt.The creation /of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to establish a consensus on the science /was an excellent idea for policymakers, who needed a strong scientific foundation for their deliberations, but it sits uncomfortably with a discipline that advances by disproving accepted theories and overturning orthodoxies.毫無疑問，政治和科學(xué)夫唱婦隨并不是一件好事。政客們要確鑿的事實(shí)，而科學(xué)家們則以懷疑為樂。對(duì)決策者來說，要得出深思熟慮的結(jié)果就需要無懈可擊的科學(xué)性，所以成立國際氣候變化小組以達(dá)成科學(xué)的共識(shí)是英明之舉。但要前進(jìn)就必須反對(duì)公認(rèn)的理論和推翻正統(tǒng)的說法。如此規(guī)則讓這個(gè)小組坐立難安。

The danger of dissent 反對(duì)的危險(xiǎn)

Some would argue that, in matters of great public import, scientific dissent should be silenced.It can, it is true, do harm.When AIDS first reared its ugly head, no one knew what caused it.Gradually, the virus responsible was isolated, identified and then attacked successfully with drugs designed specifically to inhibit its reproduction.A few scientists, though, refused to accept the evidence, and some politicians used their arguments to justify inaction.Since one of those politicians was Thabo Mbeki, then president of South Africa, hundreds of thousands who might have been saved by an anti-AIDS policy grounded in scientific reality died as a result of his policies.有些人反駁道，在關(guān)乎公共利益的事物面前，持異議的科學(xué)家們應(yīng)該保持緘默。事實(shí)上，這是有百害而無一利的。在艾滋病肆虐伊始，沒有人知道原因。然后帶病毒者被隔離了，確認(rèn)染病后又服用專門的藥物成功抑制病毒蔓延。只是有部分科學(xué)家拒絕接受證據(jù)，于是某些政治家就順?biāo)浦垡源藶榻杩诓徊扇∪魏涡袆?dòng)。由于其中一個(gè)政客是前南非總統(tǒng)塔博姆貝基，數(shù)十萬個(gè)本來可以通過科學(xué)的抗艾滋病政策保住性命的患者死在了他的政策之下。

Yet the damage in that case was done by the politicians.A leader who is determined to pursue a wrong-headed course will always find some scientist to support him.A world in which that were not true would be one in which a dangerously narrow consensus had taken hold.但是這種情況要為損失負(fù)責(zé)人的應(yīng)該是政客。一個(gè)決意要步向歧途的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者總是不乏支持他的科學(xué)家。要是有那么一個(gè)世界不是如此，那么在這個(gè)世界里肯定存在著一種狹隘得近乎危險(xiǎn)的共識(shí)。

This newspaper believes that global warming is a serious threat, and that the world needs to take steps to try to avert it.That is the job of the politicians.But we do not believe that climate change is a certainty.There are no certainties in science.Prevailing theories must be constantly tested against evidence, and refined, and more evidence collected, and the theories tested again.That is the job of the scientists.When they stop questioning orthodoxy, mankind will have given up the search for truth.The sceptics should not be silenced.本刊深信，全球氣候變暖是一個(gè)嚴(yán)峻的威脅，全人類都需要采取行動(dòng)改變這種狀況--這是政客的職責(zé)。但是我們并不認(rèn)為氣候變化已成定局。在科學(xué)的世界里面沒有肯定。流行的理論必須反復(fù)經(jīng)過驗(yàn)證，修正再驗(yàn)證再修正才能下定論—這是科學(xué)家的工作。到他們不再懷疑正統(tǒng)說法之日，便是人類放棄追求真理之時(shí)。懷疑的聲音是不應(yīng)該被抹殺的。

Bleak Friday 陰暗星期五

Nov 26th 2009 | NEW YORK From The Economist print edition

Bricks-and-mortar shops struggle to win customers back from virtual ones 實(shí)體商場從網(wǎng)絡(luò)商家手中極力挽回消費(fèi)者

SHOPPERS on Black Friday, the traditional start of the holiday shopping season in America, which falls on November 27th this year, are notoriously aggressive.Some even start queuing outside stores before dawn to be the first to lay their hands on heavily discounted merchandise.Last year berserk bargain-hunters in the suburbs of New York City trampled a Wal-Mart employee to death.Despite the frenzy at many stores, however, the recession appears to have accelerated the pace at which shoppers are abandoning bricks and mortar in favour of online retailers—e-tailers, in the jargon.So this year Black Friday(so named because it is supposed to put shops into profit for the year)also marks the start of many conventional retailers‘ attempts to regain the initiative.黑色星期五通常是美國假日消費(fèi)季節(jié)的開端，今年的黑色星期五恰逢11月27日，場面熱鬧非凡。有些人甚至天沒亮就在商店門外排隊(duì)希望可以第一個(gè)搶到―大跳水‖的商品。去年，紐約市郊沃爾瑪超市的一名員工因?yàn)轭櫩童倱尨蛘凵唐范徊葌滤?。然而，商場銷售雖然火爆，但商場蕭條之勢卻越演越烈，因?yàn)橄M(fèi)者正在棄實(shí)體商場轉(zhuǎn)而投入在線零售商---行話叫電子零售商的懷抱。所以今年的黑色星期五（這樣命名源于這一天應(yīng)該是令商店該年盈利的日子）也標(biāo)志著傳統(tǒng)實(shí)體零售商收回失地的第一炮。

E-commerce holds particular appeal in straitened times as it enables people to compare prices across retailers quickly and easily.Buyers can sometimes avoid local sales taxes online, and shipping is often free.No wonder, then, that online shopping continues to grow even as the offline sort shrinks.In 2008 retail sales grew by a feeble 1% in America and are expected to decline by more than 3% this year, according to the National Retail Federation, a trade body.In contrast, online sales grew by 13% in 2008 to over $141 billion and are predicted to grow by 11% in 2009, according to Forrester, a consultancy.在經(jīng)濟(jì)大環(huán)境惡化的背景下，電子商務(wù)具有獨(dú)特的優(yōu)勢：消費(fèi)者可以輕松快捷的貨比三家。有時(shí)在網(wǎng)上購物可以避開當(dāng)?shù)貭I業(yè)稅，而且通常免郵費(fèi)。這就難怪網(wǎng)絡(luò)銷售可以在即使實(shí)體店銷售萎縮的情況下仍然保持增長。2008實(shí)體商場零售額增長了可憐的1%,而且預(yù)計(jì)今年的銷售量將下滑三個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，全美零售商聯(lián)合會(huì)（貿(mào)易組織）如是說。而與之形成鮮明對(duì)比的是網(wǎng)絡(luò)銷售。根據(jù)顧問公司福斯特的報(bào)告，網(wǎng)絡(luò)銷售量于2008年增長了13%，達(dá)到1410億美元，預(yù)計(jì)今年將增長11%。

Online sales now account for 6% of all retail sales in America(up from 5% in 2008)and that figure is expected to reach 8% by 2013.E-commerce is also growing in Europe and Asia, where online sales in 2008 totalled $60 billion and $40 billion, respectively.In Britain, internet shopping now accounts for nearly 4% of total retail sales, according to Planet Retail, a research firm.網(wǎng)絡(luò)銷售目前占全美銷售量的6%（2008年為5%），預(yù)計(jì)到2013年之前這一數(shù)字將達(dá)到8%。電子商務(wù)在歐洲和亞洲也方興未艾，兩洲2008年的網(wǎng)絡(luò)銷售額分別為600億美元和400億美元。目前英國的網(wǎng)絡(luò)銷售量占銷售總額的4%左右，這一數(shù)字引自調(diào)研公司行星零售。

Online-only shopping sites such as Amazon and eBay, two e-commerce giants, have thrived in the downturn.Amazon‘s sales rose to around $5.5 billion in the third quarter of the year, up by almost 30% from a year before.Listings, chiefly from commercial vendors, have surged so rapidly on eBay that its website briefly crashed on November 21st.諸如亞馬遜和eBAY（網(wǎng)絡(luò)銷售巨頭）等不設(shè)實(shí)體店鋪的在線消費(fèi)網(wǎng)站在經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)之下茁壯成長。亞馬遜今年三季度的銷售量達(dá)到約55億美金，與去年相比，增長了30%.eBay亦是如此。訂單（以供應(yīng)商的為主）數(shù)激增，導(dǎo)致eBay網(wǎng)站于11月21日暫時(shí)癱瘓。

The range of items available online is also growing.Amazon has started selling groceries.Consumer-goods companies such as Procter & Gamble(P&G)are encouraging the sale of things like nappies(diapers)and laundry detergent online.At the opposite extreme, the internet is also being used to sell luxury goods.Fabergé, a defunctjewellery-maker known for its gem-encrusted eggs, relaunched in September.It will not open any shops but will instead operate only online.網(wǎng)絡(luò)銷售的產(chǎn)品種類亦在擴(kuò)大。亞馬遜已經(jīng)開始在網(wǎng)上銷售雜貨。保潔等消費(fèi)品公司也正在網(wǎng)上促銷像尿片和洗衣粉等小商品。與這些小商品完全相反的奢侈品也被搬到了網(wǎng)上銷售。已經(jīng)銷聲匿跡的珠寶制造商Fabergé（以鑲嵌寶石的蛋而聞名）于九月重新開業(yè)。該公司摒棄實(shí)體店只在網(wǎng)絡(luò)銷售產(chǎn)品。

The shift in spending to the internet is good news for companies like P&G that lack retail outlets of their own.But it is a big concern for brick-and-mortar retailers, whose prices are often higher than those of e-tailers, since they must bear the extra expense of running stores.Happily, however, conventional retailers are in a better positionto fight back than last year, when overstocking forced them to resort to ruinous discounting.Inventories are about 15% lower this year.Some big retailers, such as Saks and Target, have recently reported rising revenues and margins.消費(fèi)者轉(zhuǎn)向網(wǎng)絡(luò)消費(fèi)對(duì)保潔這種沒有自己專營店的公司來說是利好消息。而對(duì)于實(shí)體零售商來說卻是棘手問題。因?yàn)閷?shí)體零售商存在經(jīng)營成本，其零售價(jià)格通常高于網(wǎng)上價(jià)格。然而，利好的一面是今年傳統(tǒng)的零售商能夠扳回一城的幾率較去年高。去年庫存過多，傳統(tǒng)零售商被迫虧本打折，而今年的庫存量下降了大約15%。諸如Saks和Target等的一些大型零售商已于最近傳來營業(yè)額增加，利潤率上升的好消息。

The most obvious response to the growth of e-tailing is for conventional retailers to redouble their own efforts online.The online arms of big retailers are performing well, on the whole.Saks, for example, saw online sales rise 9% in the nine months to the end of October while sales in its stores fell by 19%.The company expects online growth to outpace sales in stores for the ―foreseeable future‖, says Stephen Sadove, its boss.傳統(tǒng)零售商應(yīng)對(duì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)銷售最直接的應(yīng)對(duì)措施是進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)銷售力度。總的來說，大型零售商的網(wǎng)絡(luò)銷售部門表現(xiàn)搶眼。以Saks為例。該公司一月至十月的網(wǎng)絡(luò)銷售額增長了9%，而實(shí)體店銷售則下滑19%。Saks希望在―可預(yù)見的未來‖網(wǎng)絡(luò)銷售增長超過實(shí)體商場，Saks總裁Stephen Sadove如是說。

The concept of ―multichannel‖ shopping, where people can buy the same items from the same retailer in several different ways—online, via their mobile phones and in shops—is gaining ground, and retailers are trying to encourage users of one channel to try another.Growing online traffic may actually increase sales in stores too.According to a spokesman for Macy‘s, a department-store chain, every dollar a consumer spends online with Macy‘s leads to $5.70 in spending at a Macy‘s store within ten days, because consumers learn about other products online and come into stores to look them over before buying them.Many online retailers offer tools that let people locate the nearest outlet that has a given item in stock.―多渠道‖銷售的概念是指顧客可以通過網(wǎng)絡(luò)、手機(jī)、親臨實(shí)體店等不同方式從同一個(gè)零售商手中買到同樣的產(chǎn)品。這種概念正在為人們所接受。零售商也在鼓勵(lì)單一渠道的消費(fèi)者嘗試其他的購買途徑。網(wǎng)上交易量增長也可能促進(jìn)實(shí)體店的銷量上升。梅西百貨公司（百貨連鎖公司）的發(fā)言人表示：顧客在梅西網(wǎng)站每花一美元，十天之內(nèi)該顧客會(huì)在梅西百貨商店消費(fèi)5.7美元，因?yàn)轭櫩驮诰W(wǎng)站上看到其他商品的信息，他們會(huì)親臨商場仔細(xì)檢查在網(wǎng)上看到的商品，然后再購買。很多網(wǎng)絡(luò)商家還提供專門服務(wù)，幫助顧客找到離他們最近的、出售他們中意產(chǎn)品的專營店。

Retailers are also trying to make shopping seem fun and exciting to counteract the economic gloom.One common tactic is to set up ―pop-up‖ stores, which appear for a short time before vanishing again, to foster a sense of novelty and urgency.Following the lead of many bricks-and-mortar outfits, eBay recently launched a pop-up in New York where customers could inspect items before ordering them from kiosks.商家也在絞盡腦汁增加購物的樂趣和刺激感以應(yīng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)頹勢。最常見的策略是開設(shè)―彈出式‖店鋪，這種店鋪僅短時(shí)間存在，之后便再次消失，給顧客以新鮮感和緊迫感（要趕緊購買，否則便消失不見了）。eBay也加入實(shí)體店引領(lǐng)的風(fēng)潮，于最近在紐約開設(shè)了一家彈出式商鋪。顧客可以在這個(gè)商鋪里仔細(xì)檢查商品品質(zhì)，然后在網(wǎng)上訂購。

Shoppers are increasingly looking for an ―experience‖ when they go to stores, says Jack Anderson of Hornall Anderson, a branding and marketing firm, and are no longer interested in purely ―transaction-based bricks and mortar stores‖.Apple, which encourages customers to try out its devices in its stores, is considered a pioneer of this strategy, and has attracted many imitators.The Walt Disney Company, for example, is rumoured to be redesigning its stores to attract shoppers looking for entertainment, with new features such as ―magic mirrors‖, which will allow children to play with Disney characters.消費(fèi)者越來越傾向于―體驗(yàn)式‖購物，―純交易性實(shí)體商店‖已經(jīng)無法打動(dòng)顧客的心了，品牌與營銷公司Hornall Anderson的 Jack Anderson如是說。蘋果公司在―體驗(yàn)式‖購物方面是先鋒，顧客可以在蘋果店試用產(chǎn)品，引來許多商家跟風(fēng)。迪斯尼公司便是其中之一。據(jù)傳，該公司正在重新設(shè)計(jì)店鋪吸引喜歡娛樂的顧客。店鋪增加了諸如―魔鏡‖等特色項(xiàng)目，孩子們還可以和迪斯尼卡通人物一起玩耍。

Stores are also trying to lure customers by offering services that are not available online.Best Buy, a consumer-electronics retailer, has started selling music lessons along with its musical instruments.Lululemon athletica, which sells sports clothes, offers free yoga classes.The idea is to bring people back to its shops regularly, increasing the likelihood that they will develop the habit of shopping there.實(shí)體商店也在竭盡全力吸引顧客，為他們提供網(wǎng)上購物無法實(shí)現(xiàn)的服務(wù)。消費(fèi)類電子零售商百思買已經(jīng)開始通過綁定音樂教學(xué)課來銷售樂器。體育服裝公司 Lululemon athletica開設(shè)免費(fèi)瑜伽課（帶動(dòng)產(chǎn)品銷量）。這種做法能夠把顧客定期拉回到商店，進(jìn)而增加了顧客在商店購物的可能性。

Another great hope is that mobile phones will come to the rescue of conventional retailers.Some consumers already use internet-enabled handsets to shop online.But many analysts think a technology called near-field communication(NFC)might boost sales at stores, by allowing shoppers to scan products with their phones to learn more about them, and then to pay by swiping their phones at the till.Unfortunately, NFC will not be widely available for some time—too late to help harried retailers through Black Friday.另一個(gè)被寄予厚望拯救傳統(tǒng)零售商的是手機(jī)。有些顧客已經(jīng)使用具有上網(wǎng)功能的手機(jī)在網(wǎng)上購物。但是分析人士認(rèn)為能夠提振商店銷量的或許是近距離通信技術(shù)（NFC），利用這項(xiàng)技術(shù)，消費(fèi)者可以通過手機(jī)了解產(chǎn)品信息，然后再通過手機(jī)付款。問題在于，NFC廣泛應(yīng)用尚待時(shí)日，幫助腹背受敵的商家實(shí)現(xiàn)黑色星期五盈利還無從談起。

? [2009.07.02] Knocking down the wall 打破成規(guī) Japanese banking liberalisation 日本銀行業(yè)的自由化

Knocking down the wall 打破成規(guī)

Jul 2nd 2009 | TOKYO From The Economist print edition

Japan eases the rules for banks and their securities affiliates 日本放寬對(duì)銀行及其證券業(yè)務(wù)分行的監(jiān)管

REGULATORS around the world are contemplating higher walls between commercial banks and their investment-banking divisions.In Japan the opposite is happening.Last month the country‘s Financial Services Agency(FSA)dramatically eased the regulations on how banks may interact with their securities arms, with sweeping implications for Japan‘s financial markets.就在全世界的監(jiān)管者都努力在為商業(yè)銀行及其投資銀行分部之間高筑圍墻的時(shí)候，日本卻正在反其道而行之。上個(gè)月，日本金融服務(wù)廳（FSA）引人注目的放寬了對(duì)商業(yè)銀行如何同其證券業(yè)務(wù)分行進(jìn)行合作的監(jiān)管，這對(duì)日本金融市場是一種暗示。

The old system laid huge burdens on financial groups.It prevented bankers from suggesting services that were provided by the same firm but housed in a different unit.Foreign banks, lacking the same holding-company structures as domestic rivals, were the worst hit.Until recently, grouses an employee of a big bank, its Japanese unit generated more paperwork than the rest of its operations across Asia combined.Domestic firms also suffered.And a system designed to minimise risk increased it, says an executive.―If the country manager asks the head of the securities unit, ?How‘s business?‘, he can‘t say because he is in a different legal entity.‖

舊的制度讓財(cái)團(tuán)們承受著巨大的負(fù)擔(dān)。它限制銀行家提供建議服務(wù)，這些服務(wù)其實(shí)是由同一家公司提供的，但是卻分屬不同的部門。外資銀行由于缺少和其國內(nèi)競爭者相同的控股公司的架構(gòu)，更是遭受到嚴(yán)重打擊。直到最近，一家大型銀行的員工的抱怨這家銀行在日本的分行所產(chǎn)生的書面文件比其在亞洲其他國家的業(yè)務(wù)部門加起來還多。國內(nèi)公司也同樣深受其害。一項(xiàng)本來用于降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的制度卻恰恰相反增加了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，一位員工說道：―如果銀行的區(qū)域總經(jīng)理問證券部門的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)業(yè)務(wù)怎么樣？他根本沒有辦法回答，因?yàn)樽C券部門屬于另外一個(gè)法人實(shí)體?！?/p>

The new rules simplify things.The reform allows employees to work across different units.So support staff can perform tasks for both the banking and securities units, which should increase efficiency, lower costs and improve risk management.It also lets employees cross-sell products, provided that a robust system exists to prevent conflicts of interest.Previously, corporate customers had to opt in to enable the banking group to share client information.Now they must opt out.新的制度讓事情簡單了。改革后的制度允許銀行員工在各部門之間交叉工作。這樣員工可以同時(shí)完成銀行部門和證券部門的業(yè)務(wù)，從而提高效率，降低成本，以及提高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理水平。新的制度還允許員工交叉銷售金融產(chǎn)品，并且通過有力的制度來預(yù)防利益沖突。以前，為了讓銀行間共享客戶信息，企業(yè)客戶必須參與進(jìn)來，而現(xiàn)在，他們則必須退出。

The new responsibility placed on companies to monitor themselves partly explains harsh sanctions that have been handed down by the FSA recently.Hapless Citigroup‘s bad run continues: it has been barred from promoting its retail bank in Japan for a month, starting in mid-July, because of inadequate controls on money-laundering.And Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, a huge local bank, was slapped with sanctions for failing to prevent data theft by a fired employee.新的制度讓企業(yè)必須肩負(fù)起自己監(jiān)督自己的責(zé)任，這也部分解釋了為什么FSA最近頻頻宣布嚴(yán)厲的制裁決定?；ㄆ旒瘓F(tuán)的霉運(yùn)還在繼續(xù)：由于對(duì)洗錢活動(dòng)控制不力，從七月中旬起，花旗集團(tuán)將被勒令暫停在日本推銷其零售銀行產(chǎn)品一個(gè)月。另一家日本本土銀行業(yè)巨頭，三菱UFJ金融集團(tuán)，也因?yàn)槠淝皢T工竊取并出售客戶信息而受到制裁。

The reform is intended to unleash more sophisticated financial products in Japan.Regional lenders and the country‘s three ―megabanks‖ exert enormous power over companies.Firms tend to rely on bank loans rather than the capital markets for their financing even though the level has decreased since the 1990s banking crisis(see chart).Japanese firms are three times more reliant on bank lending than American firms are.Relationships that span decades are hard to unwind but even the banks recognise that the capital markets need to develop.這項(xiàng)改革的目的旨在在日本推廣更加完善的金融產(chǎn)品。民間放款人和日本銀行―三巨頭‖都正在盡最大努力做企業(yè)的工作。相對(duì)于從資本市場融資，企業(yè)更加信賴通過銀行貸款來融資。盡管從上個(gè)世紀(jì)90年代的銀行危機(jī)以來，這中信賴程度已經(jīng)降低了不少，日本企業(yè)對(duì)銀行借款的依賴程度仍然是美國企業(yè)的三倍。（參見圖表）銀行已經(jīng)認(rèn)識(shí)到資本市場同樣需要發(fā)展，但是這種持續(xù)了數(shù)十年的想法，的確很難改變。

The new rules also let the megabanks compete a bit more easily in the securities business, which is dominated in Japan by Nomura.It handled about half of all financing deals in Japan last fiscal year, and 95% of the deals so far this year.New rivalry at home partly explains Nomura‘s interest in looking abroad for growth by acquiring the European and Asian investment-banking arms of Lehman Brothers last autumn.Could Japan yet end up a flag-carrier for liberalisation?

新的制度還能夠讓銀行巨頭們?cè)谧C券市場中的競爭能夠輕松一些。日本國內(nèi)的證券市場被野村證券（Nomura）控制著，它處理了上一財(cái)年日本國內(nèi)大約一半的金融交易，以及本財(cái)年迄今為止95%的交易。由于目前日本國內(nèi)新的競爭形勢，野村證券已經(jīng)把目光投向海外，通過去年秋天并購萊曼兄弟在歐洲和亞洲的投行業(yè)務(wù)來尋求新的增長。日本能夠結(jié)束這場銀行業(yè)的自由化進(jìn)程嗎？

Rags to riches 雜志致富

Jun 18th 2009 | NEW YORK From The Economist print edition

One corner of the print-news industry is relatively healthy 新聞?dòng)∷I(yè)的一隅相對(duì)繁榮

FOR seven of the past eight weeks the front cover of Us Weekly magazine has featured salacious stories about Jon and Kate Gosselin.The Gosselins, who have eight children including sextuplets, are the stars of an obscure American reality-TV programme that briefly became the most watched show on cable.Sensing a surge of interest, other celebrity magazines have piled in with reports of marital disharmony.Even in a recession, tittle-tattle sells.過去的八周有七周,《美國周刊》封面以Jon和Kate Gosselin的粗俗故事為特色。Gosselin一家，有包括6胞胎在內(nèi)的8個(gè)孩子，成了美國現(xiàn)實(shí)-TV節(jié)目的明星，節(jié)目短時(shí)間也在有線電視上備受矚目。其他名人雜志發(fā)覺公眾興趣激增，便在雜志中插入關(guān)于不和諧婚姻的報(bào)道。即使經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，八卦還是有的賣。

Buoyed by recession-resistant food, pharmaceutical and shampoo advertisements, gossip magazines have lost fewer advertising pages in the past year than business or news magazines, according to a tally by Mediaweek.The two biggest, People and Us Weekly, each sold more copies last year than they did in 2001.In a world of fragmenting audiences they boast an enormous reach.Fully 43m Americans, about two-thirds of them women, flick through a copy of People each week.據(jù)《媒體周刊》統(tǒng)計(jì)，過去一年里，由抵制衰退的食糧——藥品和香波廣告維持著，比起商業(yè)或新聞雜志，八卦雜志失去的廣告頁較少。兩家最大的雜志《人物》和《美國周刊》，每家去年比2001年賣出了更多的雜志。擁有大量分散讀者，他們占據(jù)了極大的范圍。足有四千三百萬美國人，婦女大約占三分之二，每周瀏覽一份《人物》雜志。

This is odd, because the forces blamed for the decline of print news are no less potent in the celebrity sector.Celebrity news has its own online aggregators, several of them linked to web portals, such as omg!, the gossip arm of Yahoo!.The self-publicising Perez Hilton leads a legion of bloggers.Tweets, mobile-phone alerts and gossipy television shows(there are five, up from three in 2000)provide much more timely information about the lives of the beautiful than do magazines.There is more direct competition, too, with three big glossy magazines having launched since 2002.這很奇怪，因?yàn)樽l責(zé)新聞?dòng)∷I(yè)衰退的力量在名人部分依舊有力。人物新聞?dòng)凶约旱木W(wǎng)絡(luò)聚合器，有幾個(gè)聚合器鏈接到了網(wǎng)絡(luò)門戶，像是對(duì)象管理集團(tuán)（omg!）和雅虎（Yahoo!）的八卦部。自我宣傳的Perez Hilton帶領(lǐng)了一大隊(duì)博客。Tweets，手機(jī)提醒和八卦電視節(jié)目（2000年有3個(gè)，現(xiàn)在升至5個(gè)）提供名人生活信息比雜志更加及時(shí)。2002年開辦的3家精品雜志，也是個(gè)更為直接的競爭。

It may be that the new entrants have simply mopped up excess interest in the doings of Paris Hilton and Lindsay Lohan.Larry Hackett, the editor of People, reckons that the public appetite for entertainment news was underserved until recently.Far from harming the established publications, the multimedia gossip barrage may be driving readers to check scurrilous rumours with them.也許新加入者挖一下Paris Hilton和Lindsay Lohan的故事就輕而易舉滿足公眾額外的興趣?！度宋铩肪庉婰arry Hackett認(rèn)為，公眾對(duì)娛樂新聞的需求至今未得到滿足。多媒體八卦的攻勢非但不會(huì)波及現(xiàn)有雜志，也許會(huì)驅(qū)使讀者和他們一起核查粗俗的謠言。

The field is probably too crowded.None of the three new publications—In Touch, Life & Style and OK!—sold more than a million copies a week on average last year.The turbulent economy has shaken lucrative news-stand sales in particular.As the weaker publications struggle, though, the strongest ones are expanding boldly into new platforms and products.People has launched an iPhone application and its website receives 13m unique visitors per month, according to comScore, a research firm.Its empire includes a fashion portal, a Spanish-language magazine, a country issue, puzzle books and a pets website, all written in the same reassuring style.這個(gè)行業(yè)或許太過密集。去年3家新雜志《接觸》、《生活&方式》和《OK!》，平均每周沒有一家能賣出一百萬份。尤其是動(dòng)蕩的經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)搖了有利可圖的報(bào)攤銷售。愈加衰弱的雜志還在掙扎，而頂強(qiáng)大的卻在大膽開拓新平臺(tái)和新產(chǎn)品。據(jù)調(diào)查公司comScore，《人物》已著手一份iPhone申請(qǐng)，其網(wǎng)站每月接待一千三百萬獨(dú)立訪客?！度宋铩返蹏ㄒ粋€(gè)時(shí)尚門戶網(wǎng)站、一份西語雜志、一個(gè)國家問題、幾本智力測驗(yàn)書和一個(gè)寵物網(wǎng)站，所有的編輯風(fēng)格都是統(tǒng)一的并且有所保證。

However far-flung their operations, celebrity publishers know they must drive traffic to the weekly magazine, where the real money is still to be made.The best websites offer titbits, updates and quotes.When it comes to longer articles and scoops, though, online readers are firmly steered to the news-stand with notes that begin, ―To find out more…‖.Janice Min, the editor-in-chief of Us Weekly, reckons the content of her magazine and its associated website overlap by no more than 15%.―Why would you post your entire cover story online?‖ she asks.不論名人雜志出版商的經(jīng)營多么廣泛，他們知道必須驅(qū)使人們買周刊才能真正賺到錢。最棒的網(wǎng)站提供花絮趣聞、更新材料和援引。然而一看到較長的文章和獨(dú)家報(bào)道，在線讀者會(huì)堅(jiān)定地奔向標(biāo)有―欲知詳情……‖的報(bào)攤?！睹绹芸房偩庉婮anice Min估計(jì)，其雜志與相關(guān)網(wǎng)站重復(fù)的內(nèi)容不足15%。她問：―為什么要把全部封面專題放到網(wǎng)上呢？‖

? The trail of disaster 災(zāi)難的身影

Jun 18th 2009 From The Economist print edition

The downturn is claiming victims that never appear on a balance sheet 蕭條引致的受害者是那些從來不會(huì)被顯示在資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表上的人群

A long walk from the boardroom 理論到現(xiàn)實(shí)的道路還很漫長

NINE months after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the world‘s economic crisis is still usually discussed as though it consisted of dire bank balance-sheets, falling exports and bankruptcies or job losses in the West.But at the other end of the trail that starts with financial woes in rich countries are underweight children and anaemic expectant mothers in poor ones.New research by the United Nations‘ standing committee on nutrition(available on 004km.cn)gives a first estimate of how the crisis has hurt the group of people most affected by the crash: the very poorest.在雷曼兄弟破產(chǎn)9個(gè)月后，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)還往往是被描述成包括了恐怖的銀行資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表，出口的下滑，銀行破產(chǎn)以及西方的失業(yè)。但是在這場從發(fā)達(dá)國家的財(cái)務(wù)困境開始的危機(jī)追溯中，位于其另一端的情況是窮國中體重日漸下降的兒童和患貧血癥的準(zhǔn)媽媽們。聯(lián)合國營養(yǎng)常設(shè)委員會(huì)的最新研究針對(duì)金融危機(jī)給那些遭受重創(chuàng)的人群 — 最貧窮的人群 — 造了多大的傷害給出了一個(gè)初步的估算。

In 1990-2007, the number of hungry people rose by about 80m, though this was, by and large, a period of rising incomes in developing countries(and a huge increase in population).In 2008 alone, the number rose a further 40m, to 963m—half as much in one year as during the previous 17.In other words, lots more children and pregnant women are not getting the food they need.The report reckons that the number of underweight children will rise from 121m to 125m by 2010, assuming no change in the size of the world economy(in fact, it is expected to shrink 2% this year).The World Bank has already estimated that until 2015 the crisis will lead to between 200,000 and 400,000 more children dying every year.在1990 – 2007年期間，挨餓人口增加了大約8千萬，盡管這是發(fā)展中國家收入一直在上漲的一個(gè)時(shí)期。僅僅是2008年這一年里，這個(gè)數(shù)字就又增加了4千萬，達(dá)到了 9.63億，一年的數(shù)據(jù)基本是過去17年里總數(shù)的一半。換句話說，更多的兒童和孕婦沒有得到他們需要的食品。報(bào)告認(rèn)為，如果世界經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模不變的話，到 2010年體重下降的兒童數(shù)量會(huì)從1.21億增加到1.25億，（事實(shí)上，預(yù)計(jì)今年的世界經(jīng)濟(jì)總量會(huì)萎縮2%）。世界銀行已經(jīng)估計(jì)到2015年危機(jī)會(huì)導(dǎo)致每年有20萬到40萬的兒童死亡。

The poorest face two crises: the world recession and the resumption of food-price rises.Food prices had been falling but even then, the global price fall did not translate into a comparable decline on local markets in most poor countries, so the poor did not benefit much.World prices bottomed out in December 2008 and have since risen 26%.In the poorest countries, a rise of 50% in the price of staples pushes up the family food budget from 50% to 60% of household income.最平窮的人面臨的是雙重困境：世界范圍的蕭條以及食品價(jià)格的新一輪上漲。食品價(jià)格過去一直在下降，但是即使是在全球范圍內(nèi)食品價(jià)格下降期，在大多數(shù)貧窮國家里本國市場上的價(jià)格并沒有相應(yīng)的下降，所以窮人并沒有從降價(jià)中獲得什么好處。世界食品價(jià)格在2008年12月走出低谷，在此之后上漲了26%。在最貧窮的國家里，主食價(jià)格上漲50%會(huì)推動(dòng)家庭的食物預(yù)算占到家庭收入的50%所以在一些貧窮國家里，要養(yǎng)活一個(gè)五口之家需要額外多工作10個(gè)小時(shí)或是更長的時(shí)間。

The resulting burden falls heavily on women.As the report says starkly: ―Women are usually the last to benefit from increasing income [but] they are usually the first to make sacrifices when the financial situation deteriorates.‖

隨之而來的負(fù)擔(dān)更多的壓在了婦女肩上。就像聯(lián)合國營養(yǎng)常設(shè)委員會(huì)的報(bào)告很明確指出的那樣：―婦女往往是收入上漲最后的受益人但卻往往是經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境惡化時(shí)首先要做出犧牲的人。

No exit 沒有退路

Jun 11th 2009 From The Economist print edition

Staying in the euro will be tough for some members, but leaving would be too awful to contemplate 對(duì)一些成員國來說，呆在歐元區(qū)的日子不好過，但是考慮離開歐元區(qū)更可怕

Illustration by M.Morgenstern

IN THE weeks following the collapse of Lehman Brothers last September the number of euro banknotes in circulation suddenly increased.Fears about the rickety state of banks had made many people mistrustful of keeping money on deposit.Far safer to keep cash stuffed under a mattress.The more discriminating hoarders, it was said, were careful to squirrel away banknotes with serial numbers prefixed by the letter “X”, indicating currency issued in Germany.Notes with “U”(French)or “P”(Dutch)prefix were also fine, but those with a “Y” or an “S”, issued by Greece and Italy, were shunned.去年9月自雷曼兄弟破產(chǎn)后的數(shù)周內(nèi)流通中的歐元鈔票數(shù)量驟增。搖搖欲墜的銀行系統(tǒng)令人擔(dān)憂，使得人們不敢將錢存入銀行。人們認(rèn)為將錢藏在家里更安全。據(jù)說，越挑剔的儲(chǔ)蓄者，越小心翼翼。他們喜歡儲(chǔ)存序列號(hào)前綴為X的鈔票，即在德國發(fā)行的貨幣。前綴為U（法國）或者P（荷蘭）的鈔票也可以，但是那些前綴為 Y或者S，分別是在希臘和意大利發(fā)行的鈔票則是要極力避免的。

The logic was that if you were preparing for financial apocalypse, you had better not rely on the euro area surviving intact.In fact, banknotes are a shared obligation of all euro-zone members, no matter where they are printed.If the issuing country were to leave the single currency, a five-euro note would still be worth five euros, whatever the serial number.However, interest-bearing debt denominated in euros is a different matter, and bond markets quickly started to sort the Xs from the Ys.這背后的邏輯是如果你警惕經(jīng)濟(jì)災(zāi)難，最好不要試圖依靠歐元區(qū)而毫發(fā)無損。事實(shí)上，流通中的鈔票是所有歐元區(qū)成員國的共同負(fù)債，不管它是在哪兒發(fā)行。如果發(fā)行國打算放棄單一貨幣，一個(gè)5歐元的鈔票仍然值5個(gè)歐元，不管它的序列號(hào)是什么。然而，歐元面值的有息負(fù)債卻是另一回事，債券市場很快開始將前綴為X和Y 的鈔票區(qū)分開來。

By early 2009 the yield on a ten-year Greek government bond was almost twice that on a comparable German Bund.The spread over Bunds for Italian, Spanish and Irish bonds also widened dramatically before narrowing again more recently.One explanation was that in skittish markets Bunds were prized for their extra liquidity.Another was that the bond-trading arms of bombed-out banks were less willing to make markets in the issues of small countries, such as Greece and Ireland, which left their prices unmoored.2009年早些時(shí)候，希臘政府10年期國債收益率幾乎是德國相應(yīng)國債的兩倍。意大利，西班牙和愛爾蘭國債間的收益率差距在最近收窄前曾一度急劇擴(kuò)大。一種解釋是在變幻莫測的市場中人們特別青睞流動(dòng)性特好的債券。另一種解釋是遭受重創(chuàng)的銀行債券交易機(jī)構(gòu)不愿意承銷象希臘、愛爾蘭等小國發(fā)行的債券，這使得這些小國的國債價(jià)格下跌。

But at least part of the rise in spreads reflected concern that countries might find it hard to pay back their borrowings.The government bonds of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain were all downgraded a notch by credit-rating agencies.For some, bond spreads are a crude gauge of the risk that the euro will break up.If a euro-zone member were shut out of capital markets and had to default on its debt, it might be tempted to use the opportunity to recreate its own currency and devalue.In that event, creditors could be forced to convert their bonds into claims in a new currency at a discount linked to a new exchange rate against the euro.Default would be one way for countries to free themselves from the euro’s shackles—or, to look at it from the opposite point of view, for the euro zone to rid itself of troublesome members.但是收益率差距擴(kuò)大至少部分反映了人們對(duì)歐元區(qū)一些國家可能很難償還借款的擔(dān)憂。希臘、愛爾蘭、葡萄牙和西班牙政府的國債評(píng)級(jí)全部被評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)降了一級(jí)。對(duì)一些人來說，國債收益差是對(duì)歐元區(qū)分裂風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的粗略估計(jì)。如果歐元區(qū)的一個(gè)成員國被資本市場拒之門外以及他不得不拖欠債務(wù)，他很可能趁機(jī)重新創(chuàng)造自己的貨幣，然后進(jìn)行貶值。如果那樣，債權(quán)人將被迫將他們的債券以與新貨幣對(duì)歐元匯率相關(guān)聯(lián)的新貨幣折價(jià)計(jì)算求償權(quán)。違約將是這些國家逃脫歐元枷鎖的一種方法或者從相反的角度看，也是歐元區(qū)除掉其令人頭疼的成員的方法。

A game of consequences 后果游戲

That kind of thinking, however, is found mostly among those who were doubtful that the euro would ever get off the ground in the first place.It is rare in countries seen as candidates for exit.As Eurocrats in Brussels are keen to stress, far from breaking up, the euro zone is growing.Since its launch it has taken on five new members, and more are queuing to join.然而，那種想法主要集中在那些一開始就對(duì)歐元能否順利實(shí)施的國家?，F(xiàn)在還沒有國家準(zhǔn)備退出。布魯塞爾的歐共體官員熱衷于強(qiáng)調(diào)，歐元區(qū)正在擴(kuò)大，遠(yuǎn)沒有分裂。歐元啟動(dòng)以來已新增了五個(gè)成員，還有更多的國家正排隊(duì)準(zhǔn)備加入。

The costs of backing out of the euro are hard to calculate but would certainly be heavy.The mere whiff of devaluation would cause a bank run: people would scramble to deposit their euros with foreign banks to avoid forced conversion to the new, weaker currency.Bondholders would shun the debt of the departing country, and funding of budget deficits and maturing debt would be suspended.中途退出歐元區(qū)的成本很難準(zhǔn)確計(jì)算但是這個(gè)代價(jià)必然很沉重。僅僅一陣貶值將會(huì)引起銀行擠兌：人們會(huì)爭先將他們的歐元存入外國銀行從而避免被迫轉(zhuǎn)換為新的弱勢貨幣。債券持有者將會(huì)極力避免可能會(huì)退出歐元區(qū)國家發(fā)行的債券，預(yù)算赤字的融資以及到期債務(wù)將會(huì)被延期。

Changing all contracts in euros—bonds, mortgages, bank deposits, wage deals and so on—to the new currency would be a logistical nightmare.The changeover to the euro was planned in detail and the exchange rate was fixed in advance, in co-operation with all the euro members.The reverse operation would be nothing like as orderly, not least because the exchange rate would be a moving target.將債券、抵押貸款、銀行存款和勞動(dòng)合同等所有以歐元表示的合同轉(zhuǎn)化為以新貨幣表示的合同將是一個(gè)后勤上的惡夢。各成員國貨幣統(tǒng)一為歐元時(shí)是經(jīng)過詳細(xì)計(jì)劃的，匯率是同所有成員國合作提前固定的。反向操作不太可能有條理，有序進(jìn)行，特別是因?yàn)閰R率將會(huì)是一個(gè)不斷變化的目標(biāo)。

If businesses converted their debts to a weaker currency, that might constitute default and trigger legal challenges.If they stuck to their covenants, they would have to service their euro debts from earnings in a weaker currency.That would hurt firms which rely mostly on profits from their domestic market.The convulsions would be felt by other euro-area members too.The writedown of the departing country’s government bonds might threaten the solvency of banks in the rest of the euro zone.Around half of Italian government bonds, for instance, are held outside Italy.Other euro-area members could suffer contagion as markets bet on further defaults.如果企業(yè)將他們的債務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)化成以弱勢貨幣計(jì)價(jià)，那將會(huì)引發(fā)一些違約現(xiàn)象并且引起法律上的挑戰(zhàn)。如果他們按照原來的以歐元計(jì)價(jià)的合同，他們不得不用以弱勢貨幣計(jì)價(jià)的營業(yè)收入去償還他們的歐元債務(wù)。那將對(duì)嚴(yán)重依賴國內(nèi)市場的公司造成傷害。歐元區(qū)其他成員國也將感受到震蕩。對(duì)要離開國政府債券的價(jià)值減計(jì)將會(huì)影響到歐元區(qū)其他地區(qū)的銀行的償付能力。例如，約一半的意大利政府國債被國外的投資者持有。隨著市場預(yù)期違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的加劇，歐元區(qū)其他成員國將會(huì)受到嚴(yán)重影響。

If the act of leaving would be hard, the aftermath might be even harder.A country that forced bondholders to take a loss would be punished.Continued access to bond markets would come at a high price.Investors would ask for a huge premium to cover the risk of further default.On that count alone, borrowing costs would be far higher than they were within the safer confines of the euro area.如果說退出歐元區(qū)本身就困難重重，其影響可能會(huì)更嚴(yán)重。那些迫使債券持有者承擔(dān)損失的國家將受到懲罰。再次進(jìn)入債券市場的代價(jià)將會(huì)非常大。投資者會(huì)要求更高的溢價(jià)來彌補(bǔ)進(jìn)一步加大的違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。僅這一點(diǎn)就會(huì)使得借款成本遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于他們待在更安全的歐元區(qū)。

Investors would have to protect themselves from two further risks: exchange-rate volatility and inflation.A former euro member would have to reinvent its own monetary policy and would struggle to convince investors that it could keep a lid on inflation.One of the euro’s big attractions was that it offered many countries a shortcut to a credible monetary set-up.Devaluation could itself trigger a wage-price spiral.For high-debt countries, such as Greece and Italy, the interest rates demanded by markets to insure themselves against such risks would be ruinous.投資者將不得不保護(hù)自己免受匯率波動(dòng)和通貨膨脹的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。之前的歐元區(qū)成員國將不得不重新采用自己的貨幣政策并且努力使投資者相信他可以控制通貨膨脹。歐元最大的魅力之一是它為很多國家提供了一個(gè)實(shí)現(xiàn)有公信力的貨幣政策的捷徑。貶值本身將引發(fā)工資-價(jià)格螺旋。對(duì)象希臘和意大利等高負(fù)債國家，市場投資者為確保自身免受此類風(fēng)險(xiǎn)而要求的利率將會(huì)太高，且是破壞性的。

And even though the costs are likely to be heavy, the immediate benefits might prove only transitory.A devaluation is a proxy for a national pay cut: it helps exporters but makes consumers of imports poorer.Workforces would put up strong resistance to being paid in a weaker currency.In countries such as Greece and Ireland, whose exports contain a lot of imports, a devaluation would push up inflation.And where a large proportion of wage contracts is indexed to prices, as in Spain, higher inflation would rapidly work its way through to wages.即使成本很可能很高，但最直接的好處卻可能很短暫。貶值可以減少國民支出：它對(duì)出口商有利，但是對(duì)進(jìn)口商品的消費(fèi)者不利。勞動(dòng)者將會(huì)強(qiáng)力組織反對(duì)以弱勢貨幣來支付薪酬。象希臘和愛爾蘭等出口產(chǎn)品中進(jìn)口大部分原料的國家，貶值會(huì)推高通貨膨脹。在大部分工資合同根據(jù)物價(jià)進(jìn)行調(diào)整的國家，例如西班牙，高通脹會(huì)很快通過就會(huì)導(dǎo)致工資上漲。

The wrong cure 錯(cuò)誤處方

An exit from the euro would not tackle weak productivity growth and inflexible wages, which are the root causes of low competitiveness.In time, further devaluations might be needed.Countries with high debts and a history of poor macroeconomic management would be most tempted to leave.But these are also the countries most likely to be hurt.退出歐元區(qū)不會(huì)解決疲軟的產(chǎn)出增長和剛性工資等導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)低競爭力的根源問題。最終，歐元區(qū)可能需要進(jìn)一步進(jìn)行貶值。那些高負(fù)債以及宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)管理一直較差的國家將最有可能退出。但是這些國家也最可能受到傷害的。

A more plausible, though still unlikely, scenario would involve a breakaway by a group of low-debt and cost-competitive countries, centred around Germany.Members of a new, “hard” European currency would leave behind a stock of depreciating euro debt and might be rewarded by lower borrowing costs on debt issues in the new currency.Yet a large part of the appeal to Germany of the single currency has been that it rules out revaluations and rewards its firms for being competitive.Germany, France and the rest have too much invested in the success of the EU and the euro to put it at risk.As Daniel Gros of the Centre for European Policy Studies, a Brussels think-tank, puts it: “The weak can’t leave and the strong won’t leave.” 一個(gè)更合理但可能性較小的情景是以德國為中心的低負(fù)債和具有成本優(yōu)勢的一批國家集體退出。新的硬歐洲通貨的成員將面對(duì)一些貶值的歐元債務(wù)并且采用新貨幣的好處是債務(wù)的借貸成本將減少。但是單一貨幣對(duì)德國的魅力很大部分在于它排除了貨幣升值的可能性并且國內(nèi)公司將因其競爭力而獲利。德國、法國和其他國家對(duì)歐盟的成功付出很多，歐元卻將它置于危險(xiǎn)境地。布魯塞爾智囊團(tuán)－歐洲政策研究中心的Daniel Gros說：“弱國不能離開并且強(qiáng)國不會(huì)離開 ”。

The promise and peril of independence 獨(dú)立的希望和危險(xiǎn)

Jun 11th 2009 | NASIR From The Economist print edition

In 2011 Africa is set to get a new country.But South Sudan could well start life as a prefailed state 2011年非洲將誕生一個(gè)新的國家。先天不足，南蘇丹能步入正軌嗎？

MAJOR JOHNSON GUCH of the Sudanese People‘s Liberation Army(SPLA)sits outside a grass hut at the edge of Nasir, a missionary post in Nuerland that in time became a dismal town(see map).Dressed in a tracksuit, he gives the air of a local warlord.A Nuer himself, Mr Guch is commander of a joint integrated unit(JIU)of southern and northern Sudanese soldiers mandated to keep the peace in Nasir.He says he has 150 southern soldiers, each with a small tin of bullets.But he is dismissive of the northern soldiers.He does not know how many there are.He says he does not care.It is not, in any sense of the word, a joint command.蘇丹人民解放軍（SPLA）MAJOR JOHNSON GUCH坐在納西爾邊境的茅草屋外面，Nuerland的一個(gè)行動(dòng)點(diǎn)不久就變成了凄涼的小鎮(zhèn)（見圖）。穿著田徑裝，他頗有當(dāng)?shù)剀婇y的氣質(zhì)。自己也是努爾人，Guch先生是南北蘇丹士兵聯(lián)合部隊(duì)的司令，這支部隊(duì)被委任保持納西爾地區(qū)的和平。他說他有150名南蘇丹士兵，每個(gè)士兵有一小罐子彈。但他對(duì)北蘇丹士兵不感興趣。他既不知道有多少北蘇丹士兵，也不在乎這些。無論怎么說，這都不是聯(lián)合司令部。

The commander of the northern troops, Captain Osman Mustafa, is more gracious, but also more disingenuous.His tent is a walk across a black wasteland pocked by the twisted wreckage of vehicles blown up in the war and little piles of human faeces left by the locals, who eschew latrines.A Muslim from the Nuba mountains, Mr Mustafa says he has 300 soldiers, enough guns and, of course, very good relations with the southerners.北蘇丹部隊(duì)首領(lǐng)Osman Mustafa更親切也更虛偽。到他的帳篷要走過一片黑色的廢墟，廢墟上有許多戰(zhàn)爭中爆炸遺留下來的車輛遺骸和幾堆當(dāng)?shù)厝说募S便，當(dāng)?shù)厝瞬挥脦?。Mustafa先生是來著努巴山區(qū)的穆斯林，他稱他有300名士兵，足夠的槍。當(dāng)然也和南蘇丹人相處得很好。

Together with a hopelessly inactive UN peacekeeping force dug in on the other side of Nasir, the JIU stood by and did nothing when one group of Nuer attacked another last m onth, slaughtering 71 people in the nearby village of Torkej.The Lou-Nuer targeted a cattle camp tended by women and children from the Jikany.Those sleeping outside under mosquito nets were shot point blank.The Lou sprayed the huts with bullets.They drove older children into the river, where they drowned.The Lou took the cattle and Torkej‘s other meagre possessions.Fifty seven wounded were taken to a Médecins Sans Frontières hospital.駐扎在納西爾另一邊的聯(lián)合國維和部隊(duì)，同樣不能發(fā)揮其作用。上個(gè)月，一群努爾人在Torkej村莊襲擊了另一群努爾人，屠殺了71個(gè)人。維和部隊(duì)和聯(lián)合部隊(duì)袖手旁觀，無所作為。盧-努爾人將Jikany一個(gè)由婦女和兒童看管的牲口棚定為了襲擊目標(biāo)。那些睡在外面蚊帳下的人被近距離槍殺。盧-努爾人掃射了這個(gè)牲口棚。他們大一點(diǎn)的孩子趕到河里淹死了。盧-努爾人擄走了Torkej的牲口和少量財(cái)產(chǎn)。75名受傷者已經(jīng)送往Médecins Sans Frontières醫(yī)院。

The Jikany insist it is unheard of for cattle raiders to target women and children.They are furious that they had no guns to defend themselves.Under South Sudan‘s patchy disarmament programme, the Jikany gave up their guns, the Lou kept theirs.Jikany elders say the Lou are working for the northern government of President Omar al-Bashir in Khartoum.They believe the north supplied at least 1,000 machineguns to the Lou in recent months.They say the Lou have been attacking their neighbours on all sides, including the Murle to the south, at the behest of Mr Bashir‘s government.For their part, the Lou say it is the Murle who are proxies of the northern regime.Jikany人堅(jiān)稱對(duì)以婦女和兒童為目標(biāo)的牲口突襲者聞所未聞。沒有槍支來自衛(wèi)更使他們憤怒。在南蘇丹不一致的解除武裝行動(dòng)下，Jikany人上交了他們的槍支，Lou人卻保留了他們的槍支。Jikany長輩們宣稱Lou人在為喀土穆的北方政府奧馬爾.巴希爾總統(tǒng)效力。他們認(rèn)為北方政府在近幾個(gè)月內(nèi)提供了至少1000把機(jī)關(guān)槍給Lou人。他們說Lou人按照巴希爾政府的要求，不停地到處襲擊他們的周圍地區(qū)，包括南部的Murle。對(duì)Lou人來說，Murle才是北方政權(quán)的代理人。

Whatever the truth, the episode is a sign of a wider breakdown of peace across southern Sudan.In the past month or so hundreds of people have been killed in violent clashes similar to the one in Torkej, as nomadic groups compete for the best cattle and grazing land.Conflict is normal, but it is not normal for so many to be killed in this way—at least in recent years.The UN says that more people are now being killed in the south than in Darfur, Sudan‘s troubled western region.無論真相如何，這一事件標(biāo)志著南蘇丹地區(qū)和平全面的崩潰。近幾個(gè)月，數(shù)以百計(jì)的人在類似Torkej 的暴力沖突中喪生，比如游牧部落爭奪最好的牲口和牧場。這樣的沖突再正常不過了，但是至少在近幾年，如此之多人喪生就不正常了。聯(lián)合國宣稱，南蘇丹所喪生的人口數(shù)目，比蘇丹西部混亂的達(dá)爾富爾地區(qū)還要多。

Under the terms of a peace agreement with the northern government of Mr Bashir signed in 2005, the south is expected to vote for secession in a referendum in 2011.The prospect of gaining a new country, South Sudan, raised hopes of an end to Sudan‘s civil war between the predominantly Muslim north and the Christian and animist south, which lasted on and off for the best part of 50 years.At last, the flattened south would rebuild itself.