第一篇：ＸＸ縣1-6月經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展運行分析報告

ＸＸ縣發(fā)展和改革局關于我縣1-6月經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展運行分析報告

縣人民政府：

今年是“十一五”規(guī)劃開局之年。半年來，在縣委、縣政府的領導下，全縣上下認真貫徹落實科學發(fā)展觀，圍繞“產(chǎn)業(yè)立縣、以港興城、開放門戶、文明崛起”四大發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略，積極推進經(jīng)濟增長方式轉(zhuǎn)變，更加注重發(fā)揮工業(yè)、投資的拉動作用和重點項目的支撐作用，全縣呈現(xiàn)出多年少見的經(jīng)濟快速發(fā)展、社會事業(yè)繁榮的良好局面。

一、經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展的基本情況和主要特點

在天原、旅發(fā)等一大批項目的拉動下，我縣經(jīng)濟持續(xù)快速發(fā)展。1－6月，全縣實現(xiàn)地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值10.38億元，增長13.9%，完成市目標41.2%，同比提高1.7個百分點，快于全市平均水平0.2個百分點。三次產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值結(jié)構(gòu)比為28.7：30.5：40.8，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進一步優(yōu)化。

經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展主要呈現(xiàn)以下特點:

（一）縣域經(jīng)濟實力快速提升

一是主要經(jīng)濟指標大幅攀升。國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值達到10.38億元,同比增長13.9%;工業(yè)增加值達到2.6億元,同比增長40%;全社會固定資產(chǎn)投資達到5.2億元,同比增長146.34%;社會消費品零售總額達到5.23億元,同比增長15.71%;地方財政一般預算收入達到2245萬元,同比增長35.5%。以上主要經(jīng)濟指標接近或高于全市平均水平，經(jīng)濟發(fā)展綜合情況在全市排位有所提升。

二是工業(yè)發(fā)展勢頭強勁。1-6月,全縣實現(xiàn)工業(yè)增加值實現(xiàn)2.6億元,增長40%。其中,規(guī)模以上工業(yè)增加值實現(xiàn)1.26億元,增長43.7%；工業(yè)產(chǎn)品銷售收入3.9億元，增長45.77%；實現(xiàn)利稅3242萬元，增長67.17%；工業(yè)經(jīng)濟效益綜合指數(shù)達到118%，比去年同期提高了6個百分點。天原化工項目的快速推進，為ＸＸ工業(yè)強縣奠定了堅實基礎。

三是農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)穩(wěn)步增長。小春糧食產(chǎn)量達2.1萬噸，同比增長0.41%。大春實現(xiàn)滿栽滿插，“訂單農(nóng)業(yè)”面積達到19.3萬畝，大春生產(chǎn)長勢良好，豐收有望。上半年出欄肉豬25.92萬頭，同比增長4.38%；出欄家禽339.07萬只，增長6.51%；累計肉類產(chǎn)量2.48萬噸，增長5.59%。江北萬畝高效農(nóng)業(yè)示范區(qū)，四面山“三江獺兔養(yǎng)殖場”、高金食品公司等產(chǎn)業(yè)化開發(fā)項目進一步促進和加快了全縣農(nóng)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整步伐。全縣繼續(xù)加大農(nóng)村勞務輸出，新增農(nóng)民外出務工人員5000余人次，加速了農(nóng)民增收。

四是服務業(yè)持續(xù)增長。1－6月，商貿(mào)流通實現(xiàn)社會消費品零售總額5.23億元，同比增長15.71%；旅游接待人數(shù)超過11萬人次，實現(xiàn)旅游收入6400余萬元，分別增長10%和6.6%；個體及私營經(jīng)濟保持了良好發(fā)展勢頭,營業(yè)收入達到4.22億元,增長10.05%。半年城鄉(xiāng)集市貿(mào)易成交額達1.73億元，增長3.23%。

（二）功能區(qū)帶動作用凸顯

“十一五”規(guī)劃確定的三大功能區(qū)建設已全面啟動，對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的拉動作用日益明顯，最突出的表現(xiàn)是陽春工業(yè)功能區(qū)和沿江港口區(qū)迅速擴張。天原化工項目的極化效應開始顯現(xiàn)，長江造林局、重慶索特集團、成都川科塑料集團、印尼華僑等都有在陽春工業(yè)功能區(qū)投資意向，沿江較大規(guī)模港口建設也在洽談之中，對加快我縣物流業(yè)的發(fā)展十分有利。總之，陽春工業(yè)功能區(qū)和沿江港口區(qū)迅速擴張，必將推動ＸＸ經(jīng)濟的快速騰飛，ＸＸ作為宜賓東大門門戶優(yōu)勢必將更加凸顯。夕佳山民俗文化風情園區(qū)建設正加快推進，正在逐步形成我縣旅游發(fā)展的增長極。

（三）投資迅猛增長，重大項目加快推進

2006年，我縣固定資產(chǎn)投資是建國以來最多的一年，1-6月全社會固定資產(chǎn)投資完成5.2億元，增長146.34%，比去年同期提高1.12倍，完成年度目標41.6%。其中：基建投資、更新改造投資保持較快增長，分別增長70.29%和583.54%，是名符其實的超常投資年。全年31個重點項目，計劃今年完成投資8.75億元，其中重大項目有15個。

一是天原ＸＸ化工新區(qū)項目。作為ＸＸ“一號工程”的天原ＸＸ化工新區(qū)項目自今年1月征地撤遷開始，在70天內(nèi)，全面完成了997畝土地征和276戶農(nóng)戶的房屋搬遷，實現(xiàn)零上訪。ＸＸ人既創(chuàng)造了ＸＸ速度，贏得了業(yè)主的高度贊譽，更為ＸＸ招商引資樹立了良好形象，同時，被市委、市政府譽為宜賓速度，這是我縣建設清明政治，樹立清新政風結(jié)出的豐碩成果。目前，工程進展順利。廠區(qū)自4月5日開工，平場工程已完成工程量的80%，局部完成90%，地下管線安裝基本結(jié)束，已投入近3億元完成主要設備采購。搬遷安置房建設二次平場已完成，20棟安置房中有10棟開始建設，其中4棟正在澆筑基礎混泥土，6棟正在進行基礎開挖，已完成投資230萬元。新區(qū)35KV施工及保安電源已建成供電，新區(qū)全長6.294公里、寬12米的沿江公路A標段路基工程已招標建設，B標段工程和A標段路面硬化工程將與天原公司采用BT方式建設。

二是旅發(fā)項目。夕佳山民俗文化風情園項目爭取國家開發(fā)銀行貸款800萬元，館內(nèi)繡樓、碉樓、馬房、轎房修繕整治工程，館內(nèi)游山道石板鋪設、博物館朝門、圍墻綠化工程已基本完成。館外游山道、綠化工程預計6月完工；游人接待中心、廣場及停車場，仙鶴湖及湖濱道、牌坊、游人接待中心布展、排污設施預計在7月底完成。3.44公里竹都大道整治工程，已完成路基降坡、管網(wǎng)鋪設，正加快路基墊層和路面工程建設，路基已完成工程量的80%。竹都大道中段預計八月竣工，全工程將于10底竣工。江長公路ＸＸ段路基工程全面完成。底蓬至紅橋公路30公里二級瀝青混凝土路面改建工程已完成工程量的55%，完成投資1300萬元，預計八月初全面建成。

三是交通項目。長江大橋已完成總工程量的70%，累計完成投資1億元，預計春節(jié)前基本建成。育江大橋預計九月底可建成。宜瀘渝高速公路(ＸＸ段)的前期工作順利推進，江南方案已通過可研預評審，項目建議書已上報交通部和國家發(fā)改委。白土地散裝貨運碼頭、白沙碼頭等前期工作加快推進。

四是其他項目。柑桔良種繁育搬遷項目已完成土地租用和大棚設施建設，上半年已完成投資180余萬元。國土整治項目計劃整治國土801公頃，新增耕地119.8公頃，現(xiàn)已完成工程量的80%；完成投資740萬元，占計劃投資的59%。農(nóng)網(wǎng)完善工程與縣城電網(wǎng)改造工程正有效推進。教育方面的江南職校改造項目與底蓬中學高中擴招項目也進展順利。縣城污水處理項目預計9月底完工，縣城垃圾中轉(zhuǎn)站已完成新廠址土地征用、三通一平、圍墻、壓縮車間一層、棧橋護坡、綜合樓基礎等，完成投資220萬元。

（四）招商引資日趨活躍

全縣招商引資實際到位資金達3.7億元，完成年度目標的70%，同比增長14%。長江造林局、重慶索特集團、成都川科塑料集團、成都寶源礦業(yè)、宜賓飛躍、印尼華僑等企業(yè)均前往ＸＸ洽談招商引資項目。為促進對外招商，我縣與湛江市坡頭區(qū)正式達成締結(jié)友好區(qū)縣意向。

（五）財政金融運行平穩(wěn)，城鄉(xiāng)居民收入穩(wěn)步增長

1－6月，地方財政一般預算收入實現(xiàn)2245萬元，增長35.5%。其中：縣級財政收入1487.8萬元，增長32.54%；鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)級財政收入757.2萬元，增長41.67%。地方財政支出完成9655萬元，增長13.7%，半年財政收支總體算帳基本正常。6月末，金融機構(gòu)各項存款余額22.68億元，比年初增長23.82%；貸款余額6.29億元，比年初增長1.27%，半年凈貸余額增長789萬元，其中：商業(yè)貸款增長9.18%，工業(yè)、農(nóng)業(yè)貸款分別下降12.61%和2.17%。1－6月，城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入4171.48元，同比增加463.48元，增長12.5%；農(nóng)民人均純收入1420元，增加150元，增長11.81%。居民消費價格總指數(shù)控制在101.5%。

（六）各項社會事業(yè)發(fā)展不斷加強

就業(yè)形勢逐步轉(zhuǎn)好，社會保障覆蓋面繼續(xù)擴大。全縣新增就業(yè)1941個，其中天原在我縣新招工人418人，城鎮(zhèn)登記失業(yè)率控制在4.5%以內(nèi)。社會保險擴面1045人，完成社會保險費征收1832萬元，支付各項社會保險費1702.3萬元，支付率100%。城鎮(zhèn)居民享受最低生活保障10404人次，累計發(fā)放低保金401萬元。

教育事業(yè)取得新進展。高考上線人數(shù)達到1304人，其中本科上線238人，比上年增加59人，增長32.96 %。實施了33所農(nóng)村中小學危房改造。完善和規(guī)范學校收費體制，進一步落實農(nóng)村貧困學生“兩免一補”政策。

公共衛(wèi)生服務體系建設加快。縣疾控中心和傳染病區(qū)已建成投入使用，3個鄉(xiāng)級衛(wèi)生院正在實施新建或改造。

社會治安形勢穩(wěn)定。刑事案件立案增幅下降，破案率同比有所提高。安全生產(chǎn)形勢良好。全縣上半年共發(fā)生交通肇事、生產(chǎn)安全死亡事故22起，上升了15.8%，但僅死亡9人，下降了30.8%：經(jīng)濟損失47.24萬元，同比下降8%。

二、需要關注的主要問題

在全縣經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展總體保持快速發(fā)展的同時，應該看到，產(chǎn)業(yè)基礎薄弱、城鄉(xiāng)發(fā)展不協(xié)調(diào)、增長方式粗放、投融渠道單一等一些深層次矛盾和問題尚未根本解決。同時，當前經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展也出現(xiàn)了一些值得關注的問題。

一是產(chǎn)業(yè)基礎薄弱，尤其工業(yè)不強。主要反映在經(jīng)濟總量小，全縣上半年GDp僅有10.38億元，人均GDp只有2921元，特別是反映ＸＸ經(jīng)濟發(fā)展規(guī)模與質(zhì)量的工業(yè)經(jīng)濟，其總量還不到GDp的四分之一，同時，普遍存在科技含量低、產(chǎn)業(yè)層次低、產(chǎn)品附加值低，環(huán)保、安全壓力大等問題。

二是項目建設資金嚴重不足。項目建設，特別是表現(xiàn)在一批關系全縣經(jīng)濟發(fā)展至關重要的工程項目上。如天原ＸＸ化工新區(qū)基礎設施建設、ＸＸ長江公路大橋、竹都大道整治工程、育江大橋等，由于地方財力溥弱，無法籌集足夠資金，工作推進較困難。

三是新農(nóng)村建設推進難度大。新農(nóng)村建設面寬量大，農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)化程度低、科技服務水平低，農(nóng)民增收難度大；農(nóng)業(yè)基礎設施脆弱，需要建設的農(nóng)村公路、水利設施多；農(nóng)村城鎮(zhèn)化水平十分低下，農(nóng)民房屋改造量大等，所有這些問題都直接影響新農(nóng)村建設。

四是社會就業(yè)壓力依然嚴峻。1—6月，城鎮(zhèn)登記失業(yè)率4.3 %，預計社會隱形失業(yè)率達到近10%?？h域勞動力就業(yè)空間和勞動力輸出渠道有限，社會就業(yè)壓力在不斷增大，社會不穩(wěn)定因素增加。

五是城鄉(xiāng)居民收入水平低，消費拉動力較弱。上半年，城鎮(zhèn)居民可支配收入僅有4171.48元，比全市平均水平低197.52元：農(nóng)民人均現(xiàn)金收入1461元，比全市平均水平低101.42元，今年氣價、水價、房價、乘車和市場物價都在逐漸上漲，群眾的實際收入水平增長緩慢。同時，全縣低收入群體居高不下，城鎮(zhèn)低保和農(nóng)村低保人數(shù)比上年同期增長了2.2%和4.7%，城鄉(xiāng)市場消費增長在相對減弱。

三、下半年工作建議

為保持我縣經(jīng)濟社會快速、持續(xù)、健康協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展，為“十一五”發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略開好頭，起好步，建議重點做好以下五個方面的工作：

（一）抓緊解決新農(nóng)村建設當中的具體問題

一要加強政策集成、資金集成，集中抓好20個縣級新農(nóng)村建設試點。制定新農(nóng)村建設規(guī)劃，明確各級補貼標準，形成政府投入引導、社會力量廣泛參與、廣大農(nóng)村自愿投入的多方協(xié)作機制。二要繼續(xù)落實政府投資向農(nóng)村傾斜政策，加快村鎮(zhèn)基礎設施和公共服務設施建設，引進新機制，探索解決制約農(nóng)村發(fā)展的緊迫問題，如鄉(xiāng)村公路、農(nóng)村能源、給排水等，切實改善農(nóng)村生產(chǎn)生活條件。三要加快農(nóng)村產(chǎn)業(yè)化經(jīng)營，用高技術(shù)改造傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)，培育特色主導產(chǎn)業(yè)。四要適應農(nóng)村集體產(chǎn)權(quán)制度改革和建立農(nóng)村股份合作制的需要，大力培育集體經(jīng)濟組織、專業(yè)合作組織以及農(nóng)戶發(fā)展資金互助組織，引導農(nóng)戶土地承包經(jīng)營權(quán)流轉(zhuǎn)，推進特色主導產(chǎn)業(yè)適度規(guī)模經(jīng)營。

（二）繼續(xù)加快重點工程建設，做好項目前期工作

一是加強協(xié)調(diào)組織，加快宜瀘渝高速公路(ＸＸ段)、白沙碼頭、陽春碼頭、江北物流園區(qū)項目、22萬伏變電站、ＸＸ體育中心等項目前期工作，促進未開工的項目盡早開工建設。同時，加快政府投資項目的各項前期工作，規(guī)范政府投資管理的各項制度，加強項目全過程監(jiān)管，提高政府投資效益。二是加強項目實施調(diào)度，切實扎實抓好31個重點項目建設，確保天原、旅發(fā)倒排工期項目和長江大橋等重大任務按期保質(zhì)完成。要重點推進天原化工、長江局竹膠合板等重大產(chǎn)業(yè)項目建設，保持工業(yè)投資穩(wěn)定較快增長，增強產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展后勁。三是落實好土地供應計劃，堅持部門聯(lián)動機制，及早落實招商引資與重點建設用地需要。盤活存量土地，合理安排入市規(guī)模，增加普通住宅、經(jīng)濟適用房用地有效供給。四是切實加強陽春工業(yè)功能區(qū)沿江公路交通、35千伏電站、供排水、垃圾污水處理等設施建設，完善功能區(qū)投資環(huán)境。加快循環(huán)經(jīng)濟試點ＸＸ陽春壩工業(yè)集中園區(qū)規(guī)劃，進一步明確陽春壩工業(yè)集中園區(qū)功能定位，同時，加強集中區(qū)招商引資和對外宣傳，提高工業(yè)集中區(qū)知名度。

（三）抓好招商引資工作，大力發(fā)展民營經(jīng)濟

繼續(xù)抓好招商引資工作，緊緊圍繞“三個三”的發(fā)展思路，構(gòu)建“大招商”格局，努力實現(xiàn)招商引資特別在工業(yè)招商上的新突破；以天原入駐為契機，進一步構(gòu)筑陽春工業(yè)集中區(qū)招商平臺，積極開展配套項目招商；繼續(xù)做好項目論證、儲備、申報和開發(fā)工作。進一步治理招商引資軟環(huán)境，轉(zhuǎn)變政府職能，改進機關作風，嚴肅責任追究；強化政務中心職能，簡化辦事程序，實行一站式服務，進一步減少和規(guī)范行政審批，激活民間資金，促進民營經(jīng)濟快速發(fā)展。

（四）搶抓旅發(fā)會機遇，加快以旅游為重點的第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展

以旅發(fā)會在宜賓召開為契機，全力做好迎接全省旅發(fā)大會的項目建設工作，努力提升我縣旅游業(yè)發(fā)展水平。全面實施夕佳山景區(qū)的整體開發(fā)，努力將夕佳山古民居群打造成川南旅游環(huán)線上的精品景區(qū)；積極推動國立劇專舊址原貌恢復工作；大力推進以竹都大道改造和旅游公路沿線風貌整治；推進縣城綠化、亮化、硬化工程，提高管理水平，全力打造“濱江生態(tài)園林城市”的嶄新形象。推進ＸＸ百竹海、南屏山和青峰寺森林公園等景區(qū)景點的保護、宣傳、包裝和開發(fā)工作，打造旅游新亮點。逐步推進竹工藝品的產(chǎn)業(yè)化開發(fā)，活躍奇石交易市場，強化旅游人才培訓、特色旅游商品開發(fā)、特色餐飲文化挖掘等工作，以生態(tài)、文化特色旅游帶動全縣第三產(chǎn)業(yè)快速發(fā)展。

（五）強化保障體系建設，促進社會協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展

全面落實促進就業(yè)和再就業(yè)政策，積極幫助重點救助對象和“三無”農(nóng)民就業(yè)；認真做好社會保障保險工作，確保保險基金征繳和按時足額發(fā)放；加快公共衛(wèi)生服務體系建設，穩(wěn)步推進城鄉(xiāng)醫(yī)療救助，積極開展農(nóng)村醫(yī)療衛(wèi)生體制改革，著力解決群眾“就醫(yī)難”問題。全面提高計生工作質(zhì)量，控制人口增長，提高人口素質(zhì)。大力發(fā)展文化產(chǎn)業(yè)和體育事業(yè)，積極推進農(nóng)村文化服務體系建設。認真做好移民安置各項前期準備工作。

第二篇：2012年1月經(jīng)濟工作會交流材料

2012年第一季度經(jīng)濟工作會交流材料

構(gòu)皮灘鎮(zhèn)人民政府

按照會議安排，現(xiàn)將2012第一季度經(jīng)濟運行情況匯報如下：

一、工作完成情況

（一）主要經(jīng)濟指標完成情況

預計完成地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值5525萬元，完成了全年任務數(shù)的%固定資產(chǎn)投資5070萬元，完成了全年任務數(shù)的%；財政收入萬元，支出萬元；存款余額3.33億元，貸款余額1.68億元，招商引資到位資金3000萬元，完成了全年任務數(shù)的%。

（二）項目建設完成情況

1、全年重點項目計劃

（1）完成農(nóng)業(yè)綜合服務樓的建設；（2）完成構(gòu)皮攤?cè)A新小區(qū)商住樓的建設；（3）推進構(gòu)皮灘大酒店的建設；（4）加大新林路街道建設項目的力度；（5）推進郭家坳至澗子水街道項目建設；

（6）建設郭家坳至澗子水街道排污溝、水網(wǎng)、電網(wǎng)及農(nóng)貿(mào)市場的建設；（7）完成創(chuàng)森宏源木業(yè)加工廠的建設；（8）加大太興路的開發(fā)；（9）完成大棚新村進寨路的硬化；（10）新林小區(qū)的建設；（11）完成構(gòu)皮灘小吃街的建設；（12）落實土地整治項目；

（13）加快釩鉬礦科研所的建設；（14）加快天星橋電站的建設；

（15）完成黃泥洞電站的建設。

（二）重點項目的完成進度

完成農(nóng)業(yè)綜合服務樓的基礎建設，并完成招標工作；構(gòu)皮灘華鑫商住小區(qū)建設項目已進入四樓主體施工階段；構(gòu)皮灘大酒店建設已進入三樓主體施工；新林路道路建設項目已完成了街道路燈安裝、路面澆油，42戶居民的房屋建設已進入施工階段；郭家坳至澗子水街道項目已平整路面1300米，完成了排污溝、和管網(wǎng)的建設以及路燈安裝；創(chuàng)森宏源木業(yè)加工廠已完成12000平方

米的土地流轉(zhuǎn)和場地平整；完成了大棚新村進寨路的硬化800米，土地整治項目完成了設計及相關手續(xù)的報批；釩鉬礦科研所已完成了征地和勘測，天星橋電站完成了攔河壩的修建及廠房的建設；完成了紅旗、天生橋、永興三個村級衛(wèi)生室建設；黃泥洞電站的主體項目已完成；啟動了構(gòu)皮灘集鎮(zhèn)旅游客運站的建設和構(gòu)皮灘集鎮(zhèn)小吃街的建設；現(xiàn)代煙草廠房建設已進入招標階段。

二、主要做法和措施

1、抓好兩個班子，落實思想統(tǒng)一。圍繞完成任務是基本目標，思想統(tǒng)一是基礎，保證質(zhì)量是前提的根本要求，定時定期召開黨政班子會，股站所負責人會，村級班子會，將思想統(tǒng)一到完成任務的決心上來，統(tǒng)一到全面協(xié)調(diào)，突出重點上來，統(tǒng)一到領導負責，部門承擔，村級主掌協(xié)調(diào)配合上來，為實現(xiàn)各目標任務打牢思想基礎，提供組織保證。

2、抓好工作調(diào)度，落實階段性目標。根據(jù)年初各項目標制定好相關的工作措施，解決好人從哪里來，事該怎么辦，錢要往哪里投的問題，根據(jù)階段性的目標，分解好工作職責，明確好責任人和責任單位。實行統(tǒng)一調(diào)度與重點調(diào)度相結(jié)合，解決重點問題和年初前布置的相結(jié)合，克服好人員短缺和資金短缺問題，調(diào)配好骨干力量，使之干事不缺位，成事不怠慢，促進階段目標的基本落實，為完成全年發(fā)展任務創(chuàng)造條件。

3、抓好群工協(xié)調(diào)，落實好項目進度。抓好經(jīng)濟工作，項目是基礎，群工協(xié)調(diào)是關鍵。成立了由鎮(zhèn)人大、紀檢、財政、項目責任單位為主體的項目群工協(xié)調(diào)工作領導小組，研究解決好工程中遇到的新問題，新情況，千方百計讓項目區(qū)的群眾了解項目的突出作用，讓群眾參與到項目建設上來，千方百計讓利于民，讓群眾無理由阻礙工程。全方位協(xié)調(diào)好，確保各類項目按時間按里程推進。

4、抓好投入和依法行政，落實好民生和社會穩(wěn)定。一方面加大在城管、安全、供水、供電、矛盾糾紛以及社會中的資金投

入，確保事情要辦好，問題要解決；一方面要運用公安、司法等法律手段，嚴厲打擊損害民生，破壞社會穩(wěn)定的行為，確保社會穩(wěn)定有基礎，民生有保障。

三、下一步工作打算

一是抓好項目建設，加快發(fā)展。圍繞主導產(chǎn)業(yè)擴張、新農(nóng)村建設、鎮(zhèn)村基礎設施建設，切實搞好項目建設。

二是抓好工作調(diào)度，落實階段性目標。根據(jù)年初各項目標制定好相關的工作措施，實行統(tǒng)一調(diào)度與重點調(diào)度相結(jié)合，解決問題，克服困難，確保目標的完成；

三是抓依法行政工作，落實好民生和社會穩(wěn)定。及時化解矛盾糾紛，解決社會歷史遺留問題；依法厲打擊損害民生，破壞社會穩(wěn)定的行為。強化安全生產(chǎn)責任落實，加強安全生產(chǎn)各個行業(yè)和領域的監(jiān)管，開展安全生產(chǎn)專項整治、檢查，嚴防各類安全生產(chǎn)事故的發(fā)生，確保社會穩(wěn)定有基礎，民生有保障，為經(jīng)濟社會的發(fā)展營造良好的環(huán)境。

第三篇：賞析版2012年3月經(jīng)濟學人文章

賞析版2012年3月經(jīng)濟學人文章（英漢雙語對照）匯集

Contents [2012.03.31]A muffled big bang 啞了火的大爆炸 1 [2012.03.31]Vietnam: Hero to zero 越南從英雄到狗熊 4 [2012.03.31]Falklands war: Short, victorious war ?？颂m戰(zhàn)爭30周年祭 6 [2012.03.30]Hong Kong tycoons under arrest 被拘捕的香港富商 10 [2012.03.24]South China Sea: Full unclosure?南中國海地位未定？ 13 [2012.03.24]Revolution in retreat 古巴革命正在退卻 [2012.03.24]Adagio, OPERA 悠著點，OPERA 19 [2012.03.17]Flavoursome research “味兒足”的研究 25 [2012.03.17]A Singapore cemetery: Brown study 一座新加坡墳場 27 [2012.03.10]Bandwagons and busts 從眾和災難29 [2012.03.10]The death of trust 信任的消亡37 [2012.03.10]Natural stock selection 自然選擇股票 46 [2012.03.10]Poaching：Black ivory 偷獵: 黑色象牙 47 [2012.03.10]Creation story 創(chuàng)造的故事 49 [2012.03.07]WHICH IS THE BEST LANGUAGE TO LEARN? 之六－拉丁語 52 [2012.03.06]Auschwitz complex 奧斯威辛情結(jié) 54 [2012.03.05]A reliable source on the ground現(xiàn)場有一個可靠線人 57 [2012.03.05]WHICH IS THE BEST LANGUAGE TO LEARN? 之五 58 [2012.03.03]Taking the long view 高瞻遠矚 60 [2012.03.03]How to rig an election 如何在選舉中作弊 66 [2012.03.02]Can the scientists keep up? 科學家跟得上嗎？ 68

[2012.03.31]A muffled big bang 啞了火的大爆炸 America’s capital markets 美國資本市場

A muffled big bang 啞了火的大爆炸

The JOBS Act and the BATS crash 《JOBS法案》和BATS的重創(chuàng)

Mar 31st 2012 | NEW YORK | from the print edition

THE capital market that is commonly thought to be the most developed in the world is, if you are being kind, in flux or, if you are not, in a mess.A stock-exchange blow-up has raised fresh questions about the reliability of America’s equities markets.More significantly, laws that govern how firms can raise money are on the verge of a profound revision.說得好聽點，人們公認的全球最發(fā)達的資本市場如今處于變動期；說得不好聽，那就是一團糟。BATS證券交易所遭受重創(chuàng)，這令人再次質(zhì)疑美國股市是否可靠。更重要的是，監(jiān)管公司集資的法律即將進行一次全面修訂。[2012.03.17]Afghanistan: The lowered bar still looks high 難以逾越的障礙 First, the exchange snafu.A few years ago the temporary collapse of a trading venue in Lenexa, Kansas would not have been much noticed.Back then the Better Alternative Trading System(BATS)exchange was just a set of computer algorithms in the head of a man named Dave Cummings, who first computerised his own wheat-trading business and then expanded to accommodate equities.首先，BATS交易所狀況混亂。若是數(shù)年前堪薩斯州的雷內(nèi)薩斯有股票交易所一時受挫，那是不會引起什么關注的。那時，更佳替代交易系統(tǒng)（BATS）交易所不過是一個叫戴夫?卡明斯（Dave Cummings）的人想出來的一套計算機算法。一開始，他只是通過電腦來打理自己的小麥生意，后來才將這些算法應用至股市。

Now BATS is a big provider of market liquidity.On March 23rd a coding error at the exchange disrupted trading in firms whose ticker symbols ran from A to BFZZZ.That, unfortunately, was enough to capture both the world’s most valuable listed company—Apple’s stock slumped by 9% before circuit-breaker rules caused trading to be suspended—and, more embarrassingly, the shares of BATS itself on their very first day of trading.如今，BTAS讓市場上的資產(chǎn)有了很強的折現(xiàn)能力。3月23日，BATS交易所出現(xiàn)了一個編碼錯誤，導致股票代碼為A至BFZZZ的公司的交易陷入混亂狀態(tài)。很不幸，這個代碼段包括了蘋果公司和BATS的股票代碼，在熔斷機制中止所有交易前，全球市值最高的上市公司蘋果公司的股價下跌9%；而更尷尬的是，BATS自身的股價在首個交易日就下跌。

Strikingly, the appeal of BATS as a venue for trading appears undamaged.By March 27th the exchange’s market share had recovered to 11%, two-thirds of that commanded by the far-better-known NASDAQ, and, when measured separately, close to that of the venerable New York Stock Exchange and its Archipelago affiliate.The glitch could have a more lasting effect on BATS’s plans to become a place where firms can list shares.The exchange operator quickly decided to pull its own offering, and its credibility as a venue for initial public offerings(IPOs)is hurt.But memories in this business are short and a more salient issue is the attractiveness of any exchange as a venue for raising capital.而引人注目的是，作為證券交易所BATS的吸引力似乎絲毫未減。到3月27日，交易所的市場分額已恢復至11%，是遠比它知名的納斯達克的三分之二；這個數(shù)值與歷史悠久的紐約股票交易所及其Archipelago分所的份額（兩者分開計算）很接近。這一個小失誤可能會對BATS成為企業(yè)上市的交易所的計劃產(chǎn)生更持久的影響。該交易所的運營者迅速地作出了撤消BTAS上市的決定，而人們則更加質(zhì)疑BATS是否能成為企業(yè)首次上市的交易所。不過，這個行業(yè)是很健忘的，而更為突出的一個問題是：一般的證券交易所在籌資方面的吸引力。

Smaller firms in particular list less than they did.According to Jay Ritter of the University of Florida, an average of 165 companies with less than $50m in inflation-adjusted annual sales went public in America each year between 1980 and 2000.In 2001-2011 the average fell by more than 80%(see chart).尤其是，如今上市的規(guī)模較小的企業(yè)比過去少了。佛羅里達州大學的杰?里特（Jay Ritter）表示，1980年至2000年間美國平均每年有165家業(yè)績低于五千萬美元（已考慮通脹因素）的公司上市。而2001年至2011年此項數(shù)據(jù)下跌超過80%（見圖表）。

That has got the lawmakers moving.On March 27th Congress sent a bill titled the JOBS Act to President Barack Obama for signing.In 22 pages—the equivalent of a blog post for a legislative branch with a propensity to expand any idea to Proustian lengths—the JOBS act creates routes for firms to circumvent or modify rules introduced as far back as the 1930s.The idea is to enable companies to raise money in a number of new ways while reducing compliance costs.這種狀況使立法者有所行動。3月27日，國會將《JOBS法案》遞交給巴拉克?奧巴馬總統(tǒng)簽署。長達22頁（對一個喜歡像用《Proust》的篇幅來詳述所有概念的立法部門而言，這個法案簡直和一篇博文一樣精簡）的《JOBS法案》為企業(yè)提供了途徑來規(guī)避或修改早在二十世紀三十年代就施行的條例?！禞OBS法案》旨在讓企業(yè)能在減少合規(guī)成本的同時通過多種新途徑籌資。

Congress seems to have been moved in part by the appealing title—at a time of high unemployment, no one wants to vote against an act with “jobs” in the title, even if it is actually short for “Jumpstart Our Business Start-ups Act”.But there is also a growing realisation that piling on regulations—from the Sarbanes-Oxley act after Enron to the more recent monstrosity that is the Dodd-Frank act—does nothing to revive the economy’s animal spirits.國會似乎多少被法案那吸引人的名字所打動了——在一個失業(yè)率高企的時期，不會有人想給名字中有“就業(yè)”字眼的法案投反對票，即便那實際上只是《全力加快新興企業(yè)發(fā)展法案》的縮寫。但越來越多人意識到不斷制定法規(guī)——從安然公司丑聞后的《薩班斯-奧克斯利法案》到更近些時候的那份怪異的《多德弗蘭克法案》——并無法振興經(jīng)濟。

Predictably, many of the people responsible for those earlier rules, notably Eliot Spitzer, a former New York attorney-general(and disgraced governor), have expressed outrage.Mary Schapiro, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, the agency responsible for securities regulation, wrote a letter full of objections.Mr Obama is ambivalent, but more likely to sign the bill than not, if only because a dynamic market for new firms would provide a whiff of hope and change.不出所料，這些舊法案的許多制訂者也表達了他們的憤怒之情，尤其是前紐約司法部長（同時也是聲名狼藉的州長）艾略特?斯皮策（Eliot Spitzer）。證券交易委員會（負責監(jiān)管證券交易的機構(gòu)）主席瑪麗?夏皮羅（Mary Schapiro）寫了一封通篇是反對意見的信。奧巴馬總統(tǒng)也很矛盾，但他很可能會簽署這個法案，皆因一個有利于新興企業(yè)的生機勃勃的市場能夠帶來一絲希望和改變。

The act will certainly make markets more friendly to firms.The most publicised components of the bill allow them to “crowdsource” slivers of equity from retail investors online;reduce regulatory requirements for companies with under $1 billion in revenues;and enable firms to stay private even as the number of owners expands to 2,000(the prior limit was 500).無疑，這個法案會讓市場變得對企業(yè)更為有利。法案中的一些條例允許企業(yè)在網(wǎng)上“眾包籌集”散戶的資金；放寬對收益少于10億美元的公司的監(jiān)管規(guī)定；并讓企業(yè)在股份持有者少于2000人時仍可不上市（之前的上限是500人）。這部分條例是最廣為人知的。

Title IV, the chapter devoted to “small company capital formation” adjusts Regulation A, a component of securities law that dates back to its earliest days, to allow firms to remain nominally private, meaning they face only minimal disclosure standards, and still raise up to $50m annually in shares that are transferable.Restrictions on circulating information on securities issuance will be loosened, as will the freedom of investment-bank analysts to provide reports on(and implicitly tout on behalf of)clients.That will mean more dubious research, but could also create more interest in the stocks of smaller firms and a profitable mechanism to take them public.法案中專門講述“小型企業(yè)集資方式”的第四章對條例A（很早期的證券法的一部分）作出了修改，讓公司名義上不上市，這意味著它們只需遵循最低信息披露標準，而且每年仍然可以用可轉(zhuǎn)讓的股份籌資五千萬美元。證券發(fā)行信息的流通限制會有所放松，投行分析師也能更自由地選擇是否提供客戶信息，這樣他們可以代表客戶間接招攬投資業(yè)務。這將意味著市場調(diào)查的準確性將會下降，但也能讓小型企業(yè)的股票收益更高，并建立一個對它們上市更有利的機制。

Collectively, all these rules will create a looser environment for raising equity.The law’s precise impact will be felt in two phases, says Reena Aggarwal of the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University.There will be an initial spike in fundraising activity;and there will be a longer-term effect, determined by whether the grey areas created under the law encourage viable enterprises to grow(in which case the exemptions will expand)or produce a result like London’s AIM market for smaller companies.Its looser listing standards prompted an initial flurry of interest but have since delivered poor returns for investors unable to distinguish between hype and substance.總體而言，所有的這些條例都會創(chuàng)造一個更為寬松的籌資環(huán)境。喬治城大學麥克唐納商學院的麗娜?阿加沃爾（Reena Aggarwal）說，在兩個階段內(nèi)就會看到這些條例的確切效果。一開始，將掀起一輪籌資熱潮；而且將會有更為長久的效果，但這要看法例產(chǎn)生的灰色地帶到底是會促進企業(yè)發(fā)展（這樣一來將會進一步放寬監(jiān)管條例）還是會讓情況變成像倫敦小型公司的另類投資市場（AIM）那樣。AIM放寬了企業(yè)上市的標準，這在一開始使股票行情有短暫波動，但自此也讓那些不能夠分辨大肆吹噓的宣傳與實質(zhì)的投資者收益慘淡。

http://ecocn.org/thread-66036-1-1.html 譯者：contrary

[2012.03.31]Vietnam: Hero to zero 越南從英雄到狗熊 Vietnam 越南

Hero to zero 從英雄到狗熊

The Communist Party sticks to its principles and the economy stalls 共產(chǎn)黨堅持自己的原則，但經(jīng)濟則停滯不前 Mar 31st 2012 | HANOI | from the print edition

AMID the bustling trade and raucous traffic of the Vietnamese capital, innumerable banners exhort citizens to “Celebrate the Spring, Celebrate the Party.” These days, Hanoians do not have much to celebrate.Not long ago, Vietnam was one of the developing world’s pin-ups.Now it is lagging badly.在越南首都熙熙攘攘的貿(mào)易與刺耳的交通噪聲中，數(shù)不清的標語橫幅提醒市民要“贊美春天，贊美黨”。如今的河內(nèi)人沒多少可贊美的。不久前越南還是發(fā)展中國家的佼佼者之一，現(xiàn)在它卻大大落后了。

The most immediate concern is inflation, which last year rose to above 20% for the second time in three years(see chart).Vietnam now has Asia’s highest inflation rate, a fact that government censors have asked local journalists to stop reporting.Thousands of businesses have gone bankrupt, property prices have collapsed and banks and state-owned enterprises(SOEs)are riddled with bad debts.人們最直接的擔心是通脹；去年的物價上漲在三年中第二次超過20%（見圖表）?，F(xiàn)在越南的通脹率位居亞洲之首，政府審查機構(gòu)已責令本國記者不再報道這一事實。數(shù)以千計的企業(yè)破產(chǎn)，樓價崩盤，銀行與國有企業(yè)（SOE）呆賬纏身。

The reversal has been sudden.Vietnam’s GDP increased by more than 8% a year from 2003 to 2007, when the country attracted a surge of foreign investment.Now the World Bank is predicting that growth will average 6% a year in the five-year period up to the end of 2012.McKinsey, a consultancy, argues that unless Vietnam boosts its labour productivity by more than half, growth is likely to dwindle to below 5%.That will be well short of the government’s target of 7-8%.As McKinsey argues, “the difference sounds small, but it isn’t.” By 2020, Vietnam’s economy could be almost a third smaller than it would have been had economy continued to grow at 7% a year.逆轉(zhuǎn)來得很突然。從2003到2007年，越南的GDP以每年大于8%的速度增長，外國投資大量涌入該國。現(xiàn)據(jù)世界銀行預計，在截至2012年底的5年中，經(jīng)濟發(fā)平均年增長率只有6%。咨詢公司麥肯錫（McKinsey）認為，如果越南不能將勞動生產(chǎn)率提高一半以上，則經(jīng)濟增長很可能會萎縮到5%以下。這將遠低于政府7-8%的目標。正如麥肯錫所說的，“這一差別聽上去不大，但事實并非如此。”到2020年，越南的經(jīng)濟可能會比它以每年7%的速度增長所能達到的水平低三分之一。

Everyone, even communist leaders, agrees on the main reasons for the slowdown.The poorly run, corrupt and wasteful SOEs, which account for about 40% of output, weigh the economy down.The formula of low-wage, low-cost manufacturing no longer works as it once did.Countries such as Cambodia and Bangladesh now undercut Vietnam in cheap manufactures.Yet the country has failed to move up the value-chain into more productive activities and higher-tech goods.所有的人，甚至共產(chǎn)黨領袖們，都對經(jīng)濟放緩的主要原因看法一致。產(chǎn)品大約占總額40%的國有企業(yè)經(jīng)營不善、貪腐普遍、浪費嚴重，因此拖累了經(jīng)濟。低工資、低成本的制造業(yè)模式不再像過去那樣有效。柬埔寨和孟加拉國一類國家現(xiàn)在正以低價與越南競爭廉價制造業(yè)市場。而國家的價值鏈又未能攀升以進行更富成效的生產(chǎn)活動，生產(chǎn)更有科技含量的產(chǎn)品。

Frustratingly, however, realising this and doing something about it seem to be two different things in the minds of Vietnam’s communist rulers.A few optimists were hoping for changes at a three-day meeting of senior party cadres last month.Alas, there was a lot of breast-beating and little else.Nguyen Phu Trong, the general secretary of the Communist Party, urged the party to reform if it wanted to avoid an existential threat.But although his speech was made public, the rest of the meeting—in time-honoured fashion—took place behind closed doors.但令人壓抑的是，在越南共產(chǎn)黨統(tǒng)治者的心中，認識到這一點和對此采取措施似乎是兩碼事。有少數(shù)樂觀主義者寄希望于上月舉行的共產(chǎn)黨高干會議，盼望這次為期三天的會議能帶來改變。唉，與會者只會大發(fā)豪言壯語，除此實在沒多少東西。共產(chǎn)黨總書記阮富仲（Nguyen Phu Trong）告誡全黨：想要避免生存危機，就必須進行改革。但盡管官方公開發(fā)表了他的講話，但會議的其他部分則延續(xù)了閉門舉行的悠久傳統(tǒng)。

Calls by the party to reform or die are not new.“They’ve been saying that for 20 years,” says Carl Thayer, an expert on Vietnamese politics at the Australian Defence Force Academy in Canberra.What is missing, now as in the past, is any detailed plan about how to implement reforms such as restructuring the clunky state-owned sector, streamlining public investment and improving transparency.Nine executives from Vinashin, a debt-ridden state-owned shipbuilder, went on trial on March 27th charged with mismanaging state resources.It is the biggest case of its kind for several years, but the politicians who encouraged and financed the company’s grandiose expansion, including the prime minister, are not likely to be held to account.共產(chǎn)黨不是第一次提出不改革就會滅亡的呼吁。“這話他們說了20年了，”設在堪培拉的澳大利亞國防科學研究所（Australian Defence Force Academy in Canberra）的越南政治專家卡爾?薩耶爾（Carl Thayer）說。但無論過去或現(xiàn)在都缺少實施改革的詳細計劃——例如怎樣重組笨拙的國有企業(yè)、精簡政府投資和提高透明度。3月27日，負債累累的國營造船廠越南船舶工業(yè)公司（Vinashin）的9名高管因被控對國家資源處置不當而出庭受審。這是幾年來這一類案子中最大的一宗，但鼓勵這家公司的浮夸擴展并為之提供資金的政治家包括該國總理似乎卻不會為此負責。

Even if there were a change of mind at the top, it would still be difficult for leaders to implement change throughout the system.Power in Vietnam is more dispersed than in neighbouring China, and vested interests in business and politics are bigger obstacles to change.Moreover, whereas China’s Communist Party has had some success in reinventing itself as an Ivy League-style networking club for the elite, its comrades in Vietnam appear stuck in the past.The legitimacy won by military victories more than a generation ago is fading into distant memory, and Vietnamese leaders’ claim to economic competence is increasingly difficult to sustain.即使高層改變了方針，領袖們要在整個體系中實施改革還是十分困難的。越南的權(quán)力分散狀況要比鄰近的中國更為嚴重，而商界與政界的既得利益群體對改革障礙更大。此外，中國共產(chǎn)黨在讓自己改造為常青藤聯(lián)盟式的全國精英人士網(wǎng)絡方面已經(jīng)取得了一定成績，但它的越南同志們似乎還在堅持舊日的方針。幾十年前武裝斗爭的勝利贏來的正統(tǒng)地位已在遙遠的記憶中逐漸淡漠，而越南領袖自詡善理經(jīng)濟的夸耀越來越站不住腳了。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65982-1-1.html 譯者：悠悠萬事97

[2012.03.31]Falklands war: Short, victorious war ?？颂m戰(zhàn)爭30周年祭 Thirty years after the Falklands war 福克蘭群島之戰(zhàn)30周年祭

Short, victorious war 短暫的戰(zhàn)爭，勝利的戰(zhàn)爭

On April 2nd 1982 Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands.The war Britain fought to recover them still colours domestic politics 1982年4月2日，阿根廷軍隊入侵?？颂m群島 [注1]。英國收復該群島的戰(zhàn)爭至今仍影響著國內(nèi)政治

Mar 31st 2012 | from the print edition

WHEN Adrian Mole, a fictional teenage diarist of the early 1980s, tells his father that the Falkland Islands have been invaded, Mr Mole shoots out of bed.He “thought the Falklands lay off the coast of Scotland”.That Britain still had sovereignty over a clutch of islands in the South Atlantic did, indeed, seem odd.Sending a naval task force 8,000 miles to fight for a thinly inhabited imperial relic seemed odder still.In some ways the conflict has come to seem even stranger since 1982.Yet for all its eccentricity, the Falklands campaign still shapes the politics of Britain.上世紀80年代初，虛構(gòu)的日記主人公，少年安德里安?摩爾（Adrian Mole）告訴他父親，?？颂m群島遭到入侵，老摩爾當即從床上一躍而起。他“還以為?？颂m群島在蘇格蘭沿海呢。”英國仍在南大西洋上擁有一群島嶼的主權(quán)，這看上去的確古怪。派遣一支海軍特遣隊奔襲8000英里（1英里約為1.6公里，譯者注），為一處沒多少居民的日不落帝國遺物而戰(zhàn)，這件事看上去還更為古怪。自1982年以來，從某些方面來說，這一沖突似乎變得更加古怪了。盡管有這么多奇異之處，?？颂m群島戰(zhàn)爭仍然對英國政治有極大影響。

Among historians, the main debates about the war’s legacy concern Mrs Thatcher and her Conservative government.Could she have survived as prime minister had the Falklands not been retaken?(In her memoirs, she says not.)Would the Tories have won the 1983 election had Argentina never invaded?(Probably.)But the conflict also changed attitudes to foreign policy and war itself.史學家對這次戰(zhàn)爭遺留問題的主要爭論與撒切爾夫人和她的保守黨政府有關。如果英國未能奪回群島，撒切爾能否保住她的首相職位？（她在自己的回憶錄中說不能。）如果阿根廷從未入侵，保守黨能否贏得1983年的大選？（或許可以。）但這次沖突也改變了人們對外交政策和戰(zhàn)爭本身的態(tài)度。

The dash across the Atlantic and subsequent victory—almost as much of a surprise to many Britons as they were to the Argentines—seemed to mark an end to Britain’s apparently inevitable international decline, a retreat epitomized by the Suez debacle of 1956.After the 1970s, a decade in which, Europe aside, British leaders had mostly been preoccupied with domestic woes—recession;industrial unrest;an IMF bail-out—the Falklands made foreign affairs, and Britain’s clout in the world, measures of successful leadership.That has remained the case ever since.橫跨大西洋的遠征以及隨之而來的勝利不但讓阿根廷人吃驚，也幾乎同樣讓許多英國人吃驚。以1956年蘇伊士運河敗退 [注]為縮影，英國的國際地位看上去每況愈下；這次勝利似乎標志著這一狀況的結(jié)束。不算歐洲，上世紀70年代是英國領袖主要考慮國內(nèi)災難的十年，其中包括經(jīng)濟衰退、工人罷工、國際貨幣基金組織的拯救行動等。此后的?？颂m群島戰(zhàn)爭使外交事務以及英國的國際勢力變成了衡量英國領導人是否成功的標準。這一點直到今天依然如此。

And if Britain took more notice of the world after the Falklands, the reverse was true, too.“Everywhere I went after the war,” Lady Thatcher(as she later became)wrote in her memoirs, “Britain’s name meant something more than it had.” Oleg Gordievsky, a KGB officer stationed in London in 1982 who subsequently defected, remembers that the KGB confidently expected Britain to lose.如果說英國從福克蘭群島戰(zhàn)爭后更多地關注世界事務，這次戰(zhàn)爭也使世界更多地關注英國。后來受封為女勛爵的撒切爾在她的回憶錄里寫道：“在那次戰(zhàn)爭之后，無論我走到哪里，英國的名聲都比過去更管用了?！币晃?982年被派駐倫敦但后來投誠的克格勃官員奧列格?高蒂夫斯基（Oleg Gordievsky）還記得，克格勃曾非常有信心地等著看英國的笑話。

Glory days 光榮的日子

As Hew Strachan of Oxford University puts it, America’s experience in Vietnam had made war seem messy and unpredictable.Lady Thatcher’s victory suggested that war could achieve political ends quickly and efficiently.Where a knee-jerk antimilitarism had once prevailed, Britain’s armed forces came to seem noble and professional: the “best in the world”, as British politicians’ constant refrain has it.正如牛津大學的修?斯特拉臣（Hew Strachan）所述，美國在越南的經(jīng)歷讓人覺得戰(zhàn)爭骯臟而且無法預測。撒切爾夫人的勝利告訴人們：戰(zhàn)爭可以迅速、有效地完成政治目的。英國曾經(jīng)是一個自然而然地普遍反戰(zhàn)的國家，但這一次它的武裝力量看上去崇高而又稱職，似乎就像英國政治家們不斷重復的贊美那樣，是“世界上最優(yōu)秀的?！?/p>

In 1982 the campaign looked like a strategic blip.The main job, during the cold war, was to defend Europe from the Soviet Union.In retrospect, observes Mr Strachan, it was the first in a series of short, sharp, expeditionary wars that Britain was to fight: later came the first Gulf war, Kosovo and the intervention in Sierra Leone.Consciously or otherwise, the triumph in the South Atlantic may have affected Britain’s appetite for those engagements.這次戰(zhàn)爭在1982年看上去像一次臨時的戰(zhàn)略轉(zhuǎn)變，因為冷戰(zhàn)時期西方的主要任務是保衛(wèi)歐洲不受蘇聯(lián)侵略。斯特拉臣認為：現(xiàn)在回頭看，那是英國參加的一系列短暫、激烈的遠征戰(zhàn)事的第一次，后來有第一次海灣戰(zhàn)爭、科索沃戰(zhàn)爭和對塞拉利昂（Sierra Leone）的干預。無論英國是否有所意識，南大西洋的勝利可能讓它參與這些戰(zhàn)爭的胃口大開。

That run ended in Afghanistan and Iraq—missions that have involved elusive opponents, changing rationales and disappointingly uncertain outcomes.Little wonder that the Falklands war—which was fought against a state, for a simple cause and to a swift and absolute victory—still inspires pride and nostalgia in Britain.這種狀況在阿富汗和伊拉克結(jié)束。那里的作戰(zhàn)牽涉到難以捉摸的對手、不斷變化的戰(zhàn)場基本狀況和極其未定的結(jié)局。因此，對抗一個國家、有明確的目標、迅速取得了壓倒性勝利的?？颂m群島戰(zhàn)爭到今天還鼓舞著英國的自豪感和懷念心情，這也就不足為奇了。

Perhaps its most tangible impact has been on defence spending.Because of the war, the navy was protected from cuts for much longer than it would otherwise have been.Today the government estimates the cost of its commitment to the islands, including its garrison and air and sea links to Britain, as ￡200m($318m)a year.或許這場戰(zhàn)爭最讓人感覺得到的影響是對防務費用的沖擊。如果沒有它，縮減海軍預算的進程會提前許多。政府估計它今天在?？颂m群島投入的年費用為2億英鎊（3.18億美元），其中包括駐守當?shù)氐男l(wèi)戌部隊和維持英國本土與它的空中與海上聯(lián)系的花銷。

The navy now finds itself temporarily without an aircraft-carrier, which has led to febrile speculation that, if lost, the islands could not be retaken.That is scaremongering, for two reasons.First, as Sir Lawrence Freedman, the war’s official historian, summarises, Britain would indeed struggle to recover the islands if they were overrun again—but defending them in the first place would be much easier, because of the men and kit now deployed there.海軍在一段時間內(nèi)將沒有航空母艦服役，這讓有些人頭腦發(fā)熱地猜測：一旦失守，英國將無力奪回福克蘭群島。出于兩個原因，這種說法純屬危言聳聽。首先，如該次戰(zhàn)爭的官方史學家勞倫斯?弗里德曼（Lawrence Freedman）勛爵所總結(jié)的那樣，如果?？颂m群島再次被占領，收復它們的確不易；但若專注于保衛(wèi)群島則會容易許多，因為部隊與裝備已經(jīng)部署在那里了。

Second, Argentina does not want to repeat the war, which triggered the end of military dictatorship and the advent of democracy.Subsequent governments have, however, retained their country’s claim to what Argentines call “Las Malvinas”.Cristina Fernández, Argentina’s president, has forsworn force as a tactic;yet as the 30th anniversary of the invasion approaches, she has energetically pressed the case by other means(in a bid, some argue, to distract voters’ attention from high inflation and other economic woes).其次，阿根廷并不想再次發(fā)動戰(zhàn)爭。上次戰(zhàn)爭導致軍事獨裁政權(quán)的垮臺與民主政治的到來，但此后的各屆政府都繼續(xù)聲稱阿根廷對他們所說的“馬爾維納斯群島”擁有主權(quán)。阿根廷總統(tǒng)克里斯蒂娜?費爾南德斯（Cristina Fernández）曾發(fā)誓放棄考慮武力；而在入侵30周年即將到來之際，她積極地以其他手段在此問題上施壓。有人認為，此舉是為了轉(zhuǎn)移選民對高通脹與其他經(jīng)濟災難的關注。

Recent steps by her administration have been designed to impede tourism—along with fishing, a mainstay of the islands’ economy—and even Argentina’s overall trade with Britain.In that context, the friendly inducements she occasionally dangles before the 3,000 islanders don’t wash.“Everything they’ve done makes us deeply suspicious of everything they’ve offered us,” says Dick Sawle, a member of the Falklands’ legislative assembly.Ms Fernández has striven to enlist other governments in the region to her niggly campaign—likely to intensify if oil is produced in the islands’ waters.Rockhopper, an energy firm, found oil offshore in 2010, and says it expects to start production in 2016.她的政府最近設計采取的步驟是妨礙該群島的旅游業(yè)和漁業(yè)，后者是群島的經(jīng)濟支柱。他們甚至不惜損害阿根廷與英國的整體貿(mào)易。在這種情況下，她偶爾友好地對3000島民伸出的誘惑橄欖枝沒有說服力?！案？颂m群島立法議會”成員迪克?索爾（Dick Sawle）說：“他們的所作所為讓我們對他們向我們提出的一切建議都深感懷疑?！辟M爾南德斯努力爭取讓該地區(qū)其他國家政府參與她的找茬攻勢；這一攻勢在該群島海域出產(chǎn)石油后可能會進一步加強。2010年，一家能源公司，洛克霍普公司（Rockhopper）在該島近海發(fā)現(xiàn)了石油；據(jù)該公司稱，正式開采預計將于2016年開始。

For its part, the British government says it is absolutely committed to the islanders’ right of self-determination.They overwhelmingly wish to stay British, a desire that is the basis of the British claim to sovereignty.Compromise would anyway be impossible while the war is a living memory: polls suggest that public opinion in mainland Britain is firmly against any concession.Jeremy Browne, the Foreign Office minister responsible for Falklands policy, doubts that, say, Brazil or Uruguay has much interest in a regional economic blockade of the islands.He thinks Argentina would be overreaching if it tried to organise one.That may prove optimistic, especially if an oil bonanza stimulates wider Latin American resource nationalism.英國政府方面聲稱，它完全尊重群島島民的自決權(quán)。占壓倒多數(shù)的島民希望繼續(xù)保持英國公民身份，這一意愿是英國聲稱擁有該群島主權(quán)的基礎。在人們對戰(zhàn)爭記憶猶新的時刻，妥協(xié)無論如何也是不可能的：民調(diào)顯示，英國本土公眾輿論堅決反對任何讓步。負責福克蘭群島政策的外交國務大臣杰里米?布朗（Jeremy Browne, the Foreign Office minister）不覺得諸如巴西或烏拉圭一類國家會對地區(qū)性封鎖該群島經(jīng)濟有多大興趣。他認為，阿根廷組織這樣封鎖的結(jié)果只有因不自量力而失敗。這話可能過于樂觀，特別當龐大的石油貯藏刺激了更廣泛的拉丁美洲資源民族主義的時候。

Mr Browne observes that tension over the Falklands has not followed a straight path: it is worse now than it was 15 years ago.The same may be true of the war’s emotional impact.Britain’s current leaders, who are mostly in their 40s, reached political consciousness in the early 1980s;the Tory half of the coalition, at least, reveres Lady Thatcher.Their views on the Falklands are noticeably firm.The war’s impact on Argentina was much more dramatic.But, quietly and enduringly, it left its mark on Britain, too.布勞恩注意到，?？颂m群島的局勢緊張并非單向發(fā)展：現(xiàn)在的局勢比15年前更為緊張。戰(zhàn)爭造成的情感沖擊可能也是如此。當今英國的領袖們大多40多歲，他們在上世紀80年代初開始有政治意識；至少聯(lián)合政府中的保守黨成員尊敬撒切爾夫人。他們在?？颂m群島問題上的觀點顯然十分堅定。這次戰(zhàn)爭對阿根廷的沖擊更加戲劇性得多，但它也靜悄悄地在英國留下了持久的影響。

[注]1956年的蘇伊士敗退：1956年埃及政府宣布將蘇伊士運河收歸國有，造成英法兩國與以色列不滿。三國出兵進攻埃及，但在國際社會包括美國與蘇聯(lián)的強大壓力之下被迫退兵。該危機直接導致英國艾登政府下臺。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65944-1-1.html 譯者：nayilus

[2012.03.30]Hong Kong tycoons under arrest 被拘捕的香港富商 Hong Kong tycoons under arrest 被拘捕的香港富商

Flying too close to the Sun? 亢龍有悔？

Mar 30th 2012, 2:38 by J.M.| BEIJING and S.C.| HONG KONG

It’s a long way down from the 102nd floor of the International Commerce Centre in Hong Kong, where Analects once enjoyed a really high tea(see picture).But the dizziness you feel looking out of the window cannot compare with the vertiginous sensation the building’s owners, Sun Hung Kai Properties, must now be feeling.Their co-chairmen, Thomas Kwok Ping-kwong and Raymond Kwok Ping-luen were arrested on March 29th by Hong Kong’s Independent Commission Against Corruption(ICAC)under the Prevention of Bribery Ordinance.So too was a former head of Hong Kong’s civil service, Rafael Hui.The arrests are widely seen as among the most sensational in the commission’s 38-year history.筆者曾在香港環(huán)球貿(mào)易廣場的第102層喝過一次午茶，從102樓到地面的距離可不是開玩笑（見圖）。你從窗戶望出去會感覺到一陣頭暈，但是這和該大樓的所有者新鴻基地產(chǎn)3月29日的感覺相比只是小巫見大巫。那天，新鴻基的雙董事長郭炳江和郭炳聯(lián)被香港廉政公署以違反《防止賄賂條例》拘捕。同樣被拘捕的還有前政務司司長許仕仁。這一事件被廣泛看成是香港廉政公署38年歷史上最轟動的一次拘捕。

The ICAC is, as usual, saying extremely little about the case, which involves one of Hong Kong’s wealthiest families.Sun Hung Kai’s buildings include the three tallest in Hong Kong.But the investigation will generate enormous media interest.The Kwok family has long been a topic of much gossip in the territory because of feuding among its members.In addition there have been growing concerns in Hong Kong about the cosiness of relations between its leaders and business tycoons.Last month the ICAC launched an investigation into the behaviour of Hong Kong’s chief executive, Donald Tsang, because of hospitality he had received from wealthy businesspeople.This is the first action ever taken by the ICAC involving someone of his paramount rank.Mr Tsang denied breaking rules but apologised for failing to live up to public expectations.這樁案件涉及的是香港最富有家族之一，新鴻基地產(chǎn)旗下的產(chǎn)業(yè)包括香港最高的三座大樓，而廉政公署如往常一樣幾乎沒有透露任何案情內(nèi)容。雖然如此，案件調(diào)查還是會受到巨大的媒體關注。郭家因為其家族成員之間的內(nèi)斗長久以來都是香港坊間八卦的話題。此外，香港人也越來越擔憂其政治領導人和商業(yè)大亨之間往來過密。上個月香港特首曾蔭權(quán)因為接受富商的招待而受到廉政公署的調(diào)查。這是廉政公署歷史上第一次圍繞香港最高官員開展行動。曾蔭權(quán)否認自己違反了任何法規(guī)，但對于自己沒有達到公眾的期望這一點進行了道歉。

Public disquiet about the tycoons’ influence was evident during the recent competition to replace Mr Tsang, who completes his term of office at the end of June.A former civil-service chief, Henry Tang, was at one time thought to be China’s favourite for the job(an endorsement that carries enormous weight among the fewer than 1,200 members of the election committee).But public opinion turned against him, partly because of his tycoon background, forcing China to switch sides to Leung Chun-ying, a man with a more populist reputation who is regarded with some suspicion by the tycoons(see this analysis by Reuters of the political role of Hong Kong’s rich).曾蔭權(quán)的任職將于6月底到期，從最近決定其繼任的競爭中很明顯可以看出公眾對于富商的政治影響力感到不安。前政務司司長唐英年一度曾被看作是中央政府心目中的最佳人選（中央的支持對于人數(shù)不到1200人的選舉委員會有舉足輕重的影響）。但是在一定程度上因為其富商背景，他受到公眾輿論的猛烈抨擊，最終迫使中央不得不棄他轉(zhuǎn)而支持梁振英。外界認為梁振英更具有民粹主義傾向，香港富商對他很不信任。（點擊查看路透社關于香港富人政治角色的分析）

Online commentators in the rest of China are keenly watching the ICAC’s moves.For all the Hong Kong public’s worries about corruption, their counterparts elsewhere in the country have a good deal more to complain about.Even Chinese officials sometimes speak admiringly of the ICAC’s ability to operate without political interference and of Hong Kong officialdom’s relatively clean conduct.But the Communist Party has been reluctant to give anti-corruption institutions the same independent powers as the ICAC for fear of weakening the party’s authority and embarrassing its leaders.As we reported in Banyan this week, Bo Xilai, Chongqing’s recently deposed party chief, is alleged by party officials to have tried blocking a corruption investigation involving his family.It is widely believed, however, that the accusations being levelled against Mr Bo are themselves motivated as much if not more by political rivalry than by any wrongdoing.中國其它地方的網(wǎng)路評論員都在熱切觀望香港廉政公署的行動。雖然香港公眾對于腐敗非常擔憂，大陸公眾抱怨的腐敗現(xiàn)象可比香港多多了。就算大陸官員偶爾也會對香港廉政公署能夠不受政治干擾行事以及香港官場相對較為清廉這兩點表示欽佩。但是中共目前為止還不太原意讓大陸的反腐機構(gòu)擁有香港廉政公署那樣的獨立權(quán)力，因為他們害怕這會削弱黨的權(quán)威，也會讓中共領導人尷尬。正如本周在Banyan專欄的報道所寫那樣，據(jù)黨內(nèi)官員所說，最近被撤職的重慶市委書記***曾試圖壓下一起涉及其家人的腐敗調(diào)查。不過很多人相信在針對***指控的背后動機里，政治斗爭占的分量至少要和任何實際錯誤占的分量一樣大，甚至更大。

At an annual meeting of anti-corruption officials on March 26th, China’s prime minister, Wen Jiabao, had little progress to point to.He said there were still frequent corruption cases “in departments that possess great power and in areas where the management of funds is centralised”.This was in spite of investigations last year into 2,524 officials at or above the rank of county leader, including seven minister-level officials(compared with 2,723 such officials investigated in 2010, including six of ministerial rank).“Corruption is the most crucial threat to the ruling party”, he said, repeating a well-worn line.3月26日在一年一度的廉政工作會議上，中國總理溫家寶找不出反腐工作有任何顯著進展。他提到腐敗現(xiàn)象“在行政權(quán)力集中的部門和資金資源管理權(quán)集中的領域”還很常見。盡管去年一年因腐敗查辦的就有縣處級以上官員2524人，包括省部級官員7人（相比之下，2010年查辦的縣處級以上官員是2723人，包括省部級官員6人），腐敗問題仍然猖獗。溫家寶總理又再次強調(diào)一句老話：“執(zhí)政黨最大危險是腐敗。”

Some of China’s bolder media have dared to suggest the obvious.“If you think that China’s problem can be solved by holding a meeting and issuing a directive, you are cheating yourself and cheating others”, said a commentary in Shenzhen Evening News(here, in Chinese), a newspaper in the Chinese city that borders on Hong Kong.It said that among the many “simple” solutions would be to set up an ICAC.Shangdu.com, a web portal in the central province of Henan, published a commentary arguing much the same.It said Hong Kong’s ICAC enjoyed high public approval because it operated according to procedures over which the public had oversight.“Citizens all have the right to make those who violate the procedures, or fail to uphold them properly, pay the price”, it said(here, in Chinese).中國一些較大膽的媒體對這些人人心知肚明的事情也敢旁敲側(cè)擊了。和香港相鄰的深圳市的一間報社《深圳晚報》發(fā)表了一篇評論，提道：“如果以為中國的問題開個會，發(fā)個通知就能解決，那真是自欺欺人”（點擊見原文）。它提出很多“簡單”的解決辦法中的一條就是建立廉政公署。中部省份河南的一個網(wǎng)站商都網(wǎng)發(fā)表了一篇觀點類似的評論。它認為香港廉政公署之所以受到公眾高度支持是因為它是基于公眾可以監(jiān)督的程序運作的。文中提到“無論是違反制度者，還是制度執(zhí)行不力者，公眾都有權(quán)利讓其付出代價”（點擊見原文）。

Hong Kong’s citizens may sometimes moan that their democratic rights are stifled, but seen from the rest of China the territory remains a paragon of the rule of law.香港市民可能有時會埋怨一下他們的民主權(quán)利受到了抑制，但是從中國其它地方看來，香港還是一個法治的典范。

譯者注

標題“too close to sun”是指希臘神話中伊卡洛斯用蠟制的翅膀飛翔，過于接近太陽蠟翼融化而落海身亡。作為比喻有行事超過一定尺度導致玩火自焚的意思，一定程度上接近中文的“亢龍有悔”。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65691-1-1.html 譯者：nayilus

[2012.03.24]South China Sea: Full unclosure?南中國海地位未定？ South China Sea

南中國海波詭云譎

Full unclosure? 全然未定？

As oil-and-gas exploration intensifies, so does the bickering 在加緊勘探油氣田的緊鑼密鼓聲中，爭吵也同時加劇 Mar 24th 2012 | SINGAPORE | from the print edition

“THE South China Sea,” noted the People’s Daily this week, “is currently calm and peaceful”.As far as that goes, the Chinese Communist Party mouthpiece was quite right.But the sea also remains in dispute, with China and five other countries having claims to some or all of its islands, rocks and waters.It is also a cause of superpower rivalry.America asserts its own “national interest” in the freedom of navigation in the sea, and, like the South-East Asian claimants to the sea, sees China as the threat.For that, the ambiguity that shrouds China’s own position has much to do with it.《人民日報》本周指出：“今天的南海風平浪靜?！本湍壳扒闆r而言，這份中共喉舌報紙所說無誤。但南海問題仍有爭議：中國與其他五國已對其一部分或全部島嶼、礁石與海域提出主權(quán)聲索。這也是造成超級大國對抗的一個原因。美國聲稱，在該海域的航行自由關系到它的“國家利益”；而且它也和東南亞聲索國一樣，把中國視為威脅。中國對其本身立場的闡述不清與“威脅論”有很大關系。

The two most active disputes concern the right to exploration for what may be enormous reserves of hydrocarbons, making the sea such a prize.On March 15th Vietnam protested against an announcement by China’s state-owned offshore-oil company that it was seeking bids for the rights to drill in 19 blocks.Vietnam pointed out that one block was just one mile(1.6km)from an island in the Paracel chain, which Vietnam claims, having been evicted from there by China in 1974.爭議最大的兩處地點都與油氣勘探權(quán)有關。該海域油氣儲備可能十分龐大，因此令各方看重。中國國企中海油對19個海域區(qū)塊的鉆探權(quán)招標，越南政府3月15日就此提出抗議，指出其中1個區(qū)塊距離西沙群島某島只有1.6公里（1英里）；越南認為它對該島擁有主權(quán)，但1974年中國占領該島，驅(qū)逐了越南駐軍。

Meanwhile, to the south, China itself has objected to plans by the Philippines to open areas in the Reed bank, off the island of Palawan, for oil-and-gas exploration.The Philippines claims the area as part of the “exclusive economic zone”(EEZ)attached to its main archipelago.同時，為勘探油氣田，菲律賓計劃開放南海南部巴拉望島外禮樂灘的一些水域；中國反對此舉。菲律賓聲稱該地區(qū)是與它的主要群島相連的“專屬經(jīng)濟區(qū)”（exclusive economic zone(EEZ)）的一部分。

The area falls within the “nine-dashed line”, dating to maps from the pre-Communist era in the late 1940s, that China says proves its sovereignty.That line, which has no basis in international law, is one reason other countries are so wary of China’s intentions.中國認為，在中共1949年掌權(quán)以前的地圖上劃有 “南海九段線”，這是它對該海域擁有主權(quán)的證明，而上述區(qū)域位于南海九段線之內(nèi)。但這條線沒有國際法依據(jù)，因此是其他國家提防中國的一個原因。

However, in this case, China does seem to be basing the claim on the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea(UNCLOS).China(like Taiwan and Vietnam)also claims the entire Spratly archipelago.These are mainly tiny, uninhabitable rocks and islets which, under UNCLOS, would be entitled to “territorial waters” of just 12 nautical miles(22km).However, Robert Beckman, a professor of international law at the National University of Singapore, has pointed out that China could claim that some features near Reed bank qualify as “islands”, under UNCLOS, having their own full 200-mile EEZ, which would overlap with the Philippines’.但在這件事上，中國的立場似乎確實以《聯(lián)合國海洋法公約》（United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea(UNCLOS)）為依據(jù)。中國也與臺灣和越南一樣聲稱擁有整個南沙群島的主權(quán)。按《聯(lián)合國海洋法公約》規(guī)定，該群島主要由無人居住的小礁石和小島組成，只有12海里（22公里）領海權(quán)；但新加坡國立大學（National University of Singapore）國際法教授羅伯特?貝克曼（Robert Beckman）指出，中國可以聲稱，南沙群島中距禮樂灘不遠的一些地域有資格稱為“島”，因而按《聯(lián)合國海洋法公約》規(guī)定有完整的200海里專屬經(jīng)濟區(qū)，而這一專屬經(jīng)濟區(qū)與菲律賓的專屬經(jīng)濟區(qū)重疊。

If China were to limit itself to claims based on UNCLOS, things would be clearer.In this context, Taylor Fravel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology has pointed to a seemingly encouraging statement from the Chinese foreign ministry in late February that “no country including China has claimed sovereignty over the entire South China Sea.”

如果中國把自己的聲索限制在《聯(lián)合國海洋法公約》的基礎上，情況就會清楚些了。關于這一點，麻省理工學院的傅泰林（Taylor Fravel）認為，中國外交部發(fā)言人2月底的講話似乎十分鼓舞人心：“沒有任何國家包括中國對整個南海提出主權(quán)聲索?！?/p>

This could be interpreted to mean that the nine-dashed line is not a claim to all the sea’s waters, simply to the land features.But it does not quite say so—after all, the line does not encompass all of the South China Sea, just nearly all.這可以解釋為，南海九段線并非聲索南海全部海域，而只聲索地域。但對此中國并未明言——說到底，這條線雖然幾乎包圍了整個南海，但卻并非全部。

With the Philippines, China does seem to be taking a somewhat softer line, pushing the possibility of joint oil-and-gas development.And the People’s Daily was keen to blame America for any tension in the sea.It was responding to a press conference by General Burton Field, the commander of American forces in Japan, at which he called on China to respect the freedom of navigation.中國對菲律賓的態(tài)度似乎不算強硬，還向它推銷聯(lián)合開發(fā)油氣田的主張。但《人民日報》熱衷于將這一區(qū)域的任何摩擦歸罪于美國。它回敬了駐日美軍司令博爾頓?菲爾德（Burton Field）將軍在記者招待會上呼吁中國“尊重航行自由”的說法。

The People’s Daily, rightly again, argued that this is not at present under threat.It had a point when it argued that America may be blurring the issues as part of its “return to Asia” strategy, which includes strengthening its ties with China’s neighbours.But for the uncomfortable realisation that this strategy has been broadly welcomed in the region, China has itself to blame.《人民日報》再次正確地指出，航行自由當前并未受到威脅。它認為美國故意混淆這些問題，可能是它 “重返亞洲”戰(zhàn)略的一步棋；該戰(zhàn)略包括加強它與中國的鄰國之間的關系。這一說法也很有道理。但這一戰(zhàn)略在該地區(qū)受到廣泛支持，這種局面令中國不舒服，但有些地方也怪它自己。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65573-1-1.html 譯者：悠悠萬事97

[2012.03.24]Revolution in retreat 古巴革命正在退卻

Revolution in retreat 古巴革命正在退卻

Under Raúl Castro, Cuba has begun the journey towards capitalism.But it will take a decade and a big political battle to complete, writes Michael Reid 在勞爾?卡斯特羅的領導下，古巴已經(jīng)開始向資本主義轉(zhuǎn)變。但完成這個轉(zhuǎn)變需要十年的時間和劇烈的政治斗爭。（邁克爾?里德）

WHEN ON JULY 31st 2006 Cuban state television broadcast a terse statement from Fidel Castro to say that he had to undergo emergency surgery and was temporarily handing over to his brother, Raúl(pictured with Fidel, left), it felt like the end of an era.The man who had dominated every aspect of life on the island for almost half a century seemed to be on his way out.In the event Fidel survived, and nothing appeared to change.Even so, that July evening marked the start of a slow but irreversible dismantling of communism(officially, “socialism”)in one of the tiny handful of countries in which it survived into the 21st century.2006年7月31日，古巴國家電視臺播放了菲德爾?卡斯特羅的一個簡短聲明，聲明說，他必須接受緊急手術(shù)，他的弟弟勞爾將暫時代理他的職務。這使人們感覺像是一個時代的結(jié)束，這位支配這個島國近半個世紀的人看來正在離開歷史舞臺。后來菲德爾恢復了健康，看起來什么也沒有改變。即便如此，那個7月的夜晚還是標志了古巴共產(chǎn)主義（正式稱謂是“社會主義”）開始了緩慢但不可逆轉(zhuǎn)的瓦解過程。古巴是少數(shù)幾個在21世紀仍然存活的社會主義國家之一。

Raúl Castro, who formally took over as Cuba’s president in February 2008 and as first secretary of the Communist Party in April 2011, is trying to revive the island’s moribund economy by transferring a substantial chunk of it from state to private hands, with profound social and political implications.He has abolished a few of the many petty restrictions that pervade Cubans’ lives.He has also freed around 130 political prisoners.His government has signed the UN covenants on human rights, something his brother had jibbed at for three decades.Repression has become less brutal, though two prisoners have died on hunger strikes.Cubans grumble far more openly than they used to, and academic debate has become a bit freer.But calls for democracy and free elections are still silenced.The Communist Party remains the only legal political party in Cuba.And Raúl Castro has repeatedly dashed the hopes of many Cubans that the hated exit visa, which makes it hard(and for some, impossible)to leave the country, will be scrapped.勞爾?卡斯特羅于2008年2月正式接任古巴總統(tǒng)，2011年4月接任共產(chǎn)黨第一書記。他為了重振這個島國瀕危的經(jīng)濟，正在把相當一部分國有企業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)樗饺怂?，這個舉措具有深遠的社會和政治意義。他放松了在古巴人生活中無處不在的各種限制，釋放了約一百三十名政治犯。他的政府簽署了聯(lián)合國人權(quán)公約，這是他哥哥躊躇了三十年都沒有做的事情。盡管最近有兩名犯人因絕食而死，但鎮(zhèn)壓手段已經(jīng)不像過去那樣殘酷了。古巴人現(xiàn)在可以比過去更為公開地發(fā)牢騷，學術(shù)爭論的空氣也比過去自由一點兒。但是，要求民主和自由選舉的呼聲仍然受到壓制，共產(chǎn)黨仍然是古巴唯一的合法政黨。古巴現(xiàn)行的出境簽證制度遭人痛恨，因為它使出國非常困難，有些人甚至完全出不了國，但勞爾?卡斯特羅一再拒絕了改變這個制度的要求。

The economic reforms, set out in 313 “guidelines” approved by a Communist Party congress in April 2011, are being implemented slowly and with great caution.That is because they face stubborn resistance from within the party and the bureaucracy.Indeed, the leadership shuns the word “reform”, let alone “transition”.Those terms are contaminated by the collapse of the Soviet Union, an event that still traumatises Cuba’s leaders.Officially, the changes are described as an “updating” in which “non-state actors” and “co-operatives” will be promoted.But whatever the language, this means an emerging private sector.在2011年的共產(chǎn)黨代表大會上，通過了實行經(jīng)濟改革的313條“指導方針”，現(xiàn)在改革正在緩慢地、極為謹慎地進行著，因為它受到來自黨內(nèi)和官僚基層的頑強抵抗。事實上，領導層避免使用“改革”這個詞，更不要說“轉(zhuǎn)型”了，因為這些詞語與蘇聯(lián)的崩潰相聯(lián)系，而古巴領導人仍然沒有從蘇聯(lián)崩潰的傷痛中恢復過來。在官方語言中，目前的變化，包括促進“非國有部門”和“集體所有”部門的發(fā)展，都被稱為“更新”。但是不管怎樣用詞，私人經(jīng)濟部門事實上正在興起。

The new president often says his aim is to “make socialism sustainable and irreversible”.The economy will continue to be based on planning, not the market, and “the concentration of property” will be prohibited, Raúl Castro insisted in a speech to the National Assembly in December 2010.He is careful not to contradict his elder brother openly: his every speech contains several reverential quotes from Fidel, who despite his semi-retirement is consulted about big decisions.(For brevity and clarity this report will refer to each Castro brother by his first name.)新總統(tǒng)經(jīng)常說，他的目的是“使社會主義保持活力和不可動搖“。在2010年12月的全國代表大會上，勞爾?卡斯特羅說，經(jīng)濟仍然建立在計劃基礎上而不是市場基礎上，并且不容許“財產(chǎn)的集中化”。他很注意不表現(xiàn)出和他哥哥有任何不一致之處：他的每次講話都要虔誠地引用菲德爾的語錄。雖然菲德爾已經(jīng)半退休了，但做出重大決定前仍要征求他的意見。（為了簡潔和清晰，本報告將省略這兄弟兩人的姓氏，使用各自的名字以示區(qū)別。）

Fidel’s frail and ghostly presence in his compound in Siboney, a leafy enclave of mansions on Havana’s western outskirts, doubtless checks the speed of reform.But he no longer controls the levers of power and rarely comments on domestic politics.菲德爾在斯伯尼的住宅是在哈瓦那西郊一個林蔭濃密的院落內(nèi)，他雖然身體虛弱，極少露面，但他的存在本身無疑限制了改革的速度。不過他已不再掌控權(quán)力，也很少對國內(nèi)事務發(fā)表意見。

This special report will argue that whatever the intentions of Cuba’s Communist leaders, they will find it impossible to prevent their island from moving to some form of capitalism.What is harder to predict is whether they will remain in control of the process of change, or whether it will lead to democracy.我們將在本報告[注1]中論證，不管古巴共產(chǎn)黨的意圖是什么，他們已不可能阻止這個島國走向某種形式的資本主義。難以預測的只有兩個問題：他們是否能持續(xù)控制變化的進程；這種變化是否會帶來民主。

No turning back this time When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, many outsiders believed that communism in Cuba was doomed.Massive Soviet subsidies and military aid for Cuba had offset the economic embargo imposed by the United States in 1960.By the 1970s they had also brought stability after Fidel had all but bankrupted the island by his manic shifts from forced industrialisation back to exaggerated reliance on sugar, the economy’s mainstay since colonial days.The overnight withdrawal of Soviet subsidies and trade links caused Cuba’s economy to contract by 35% between 1989 and 1993(see chart 1).目前的改革不可逆轉(zhuǎn)

當蘇聯(lián)于1991年崩潰時，很多人認為共產(chǎn)主義在古巴的前途暗淡了。自美國于1960年開始對古巴實行經(jīng)濟封鎖以來，蘇聯(lián)提供的巨額補貼和軍援抵消了封鎖的影響。在上世紀七十年代，菲德爾放棄了強制工業(yè)化進程，轉(zhuǎn)而完全依賴自殖民時代就是古巴經(jīng)濟主體的蔗糖業(yè)，使這個島國瀕臨破產(chǎn)邊緣，也是蘇聯(lián)的援助維持了古巴的穩(wěn)定。蘇聯(lián)一夜之間停止了援助和貿(mào)易關系，使古巴的經(jīng)濟從1989到1993年間縮水了35%（見圖1）。

In response, Fidel declared a national emergency, dubbed “The Special Period in Peacetime”.He opened the island to foreign investment and mass tourism and legalised small family businesses and the use of the dollar.But then he found a new benefactor in Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez, who began to provide Cuba with cheap oil.A big chunk of that is officially counted as a swap of oil for the services of some 20,000 Cuban doctors, sports instructors and security advisers working in Venezuela.China, too, emerged as a new source of credit.為了對付這個局面，菲德爾宣布國家處于緊急狀態(tài)，他稱之為“和平時期的特殊階段”。他為外國投資打開了門戶，開啟了規(guī)模巨大的旅游業(yè)，使小家庭企業(yè)和美元流通合法化。但是不久，委內(nèi)瑞拉的胡戈?查韋斯成了新的援助者，他給古巴提供了廉價的石油。作為交換，大約兩萬名古巴醫(yī)生、體育教員和安全專家在委內(nèi)瑞拉工作，支付了石油價值的一大步部分。中國也成為貸款的來源之一。

Thus bolstered, Fidel reversed course again.Many family businesses, as well as some foreign ventures, were shut down;the dollar ceased to be legal tender in 2004.The ageing leader launched “the Battle of Ideas”, sending out armies of youths as ill-trained teachers and social workers.委內(nèi)瑞拉和中國的幫助給古巴打了強心針，菲德爾再次扭轉(zhuǎn)方向。很多家庭企業(yè)和一些外國投資項目被關閉，美元流通也在2004年又成為非法。年邁的菲德爾發(fā)起了“為理想而奮斗”運動，把大批缺乏訓練的年輕人送去做教師和社會工作者。

This time, Raúl has insisted, there will be no turning back: the reforms will happen sin prisa, pero sin pausa(slowly but steadily).But Raúl is no liberal.He and Ernesto “Che” Guevara, the Argentine adventurer who died in Bolivia in 1967, were the orthodox Marxists among the leaders of Fidel’s Rebel Army, the ragtag band of bearded guerrillas who toppled the corrupt, American-backed dictatorship of Fulgencio Batista.As defence minister from 1959 to 2008, Raúl set up and led Cuba’s formidable armed forces.勞爾說，這次的改革不會逆轉(zhuǎn)了：改革將緩慢但穩(wěn)步地展開。但勞爾并不是一個自由主義者。他和1967年死于玻利維亞的阿根廷冒險家埃內(nèi)斯托?“切”?格瓦拉一樣，是菲德爾的反叛軍領導者中的正統(tǒng)馬克思主義者。這個反叛軍是由一群衣衫襤褸、留著大胡子的游擊隊員組成的，他們推翻了美國人支持的、腐敗的富爾亨西奧?巴蒂斯塔的獨裁統(tǒng)治。從1959到2008年，作為國防部長，勞爾創(chuàng)建并領導了古巴的強大武裝力量。

When Raúl took over from Fidel, he moved slowly at first, amid factional fighting.To general surprise, the men who lost out in 2009 were Carlos Lage, who had run the economy since the Special Period and was seen as a reformer, and Felipe Pérez Roque, the young foreign minister.They were denounced for having criticised the Castros(Mr Lage was caught on tape describing the leadership as “l(fā)iving fossils”)and for having been corrupted by power.Instead, José Ramón Machado Ventura, an 81-year-old Stalinist, was named as Raúl’s deputy.勞爾接替菲德爾之后，在派別斗爭的漩渦中，他一開始采取了緩慢推進的策略。出乎人們意料的是，在2009年有兩個人在派別斗爭中失勢；一個是卡洛斯拉格，他自菲德爾的“特殊階段”開始就掌管經(jīng)濟事務，并被人看作是一個改革者；另一個是年輕的外長菲利普?佩雷斯?洛克。他們被指控曾經(jīng)批評卡斯特羅兄弟（拉格先生說領導人是“活化石”時被人錄了像）而且被權(quán)力所腐蝕。此外，81歲的斯大林主義者何塞?拉蒙被任命為勞爾的副手。

But Raúl also quietly discarded nearly all of Fidel’s ministers and key aides.Their replacements are mostly army officers.Rafael Hernández, an academic who edits Temas, a quarterly journal attached to the culture ministry, points out that many of them are engineers by profession.然而勞爾也悄悄地擺脫了菲德爾的幾乎所有部長和關鍵助手，接替他們的大多數(shù)是軍隊官員。文化部下屬季刊《Temas》編輯、學者拉斐爾?赫爾南德斯指出，這些官員大多數(shù)有工程專業(yè)背景。

Fidel ruled Cuba through the unbridled exercise of his massive ego.He centralised all power in his own hands, imposed Utopian egalitarianism and performed frequent policy swerves.By all accounts, Raúl is more modest, by nature a delegator and team-builder, more interested in getting things done than making speeches.When he took over in 2006 he put an end to the 4am meetings his brother loved.He is the Sancho Panza to Fidel’s Don Quijote(they even look the parts).勞爾統(tǒng)治古巴的方式體現(xiàn)了他極度自負的性格。他把所有的權(quán)力都集中到自己手里，奉行烏托邦式的平均主義，政策變化無常。盡管如此，勞爾仍然是比較溫和的。從特性上說，他是一個善于分權(quán)和發(fā)揮團隊作用的領導人，著重于做事而不是演講。在2006年上任后，他取消了菲德爾喜歡的早晨四點鐘舉行會議的慣例。他是桑丘潘沙，菲德爾是唐吉坷德（他們兩人甚至長得像這兩個角色）。[注2]

Raúl seems to be acutely conscious that Cuban communism is living on borrowed time.The economy is grossly unproductive.Venezuelan aid in 2008 was offset by devastating hurricanes and the knock-on effects of the global financial crisis on Cuba’s tourism and trade.The country is running down its capital, but living standards remain frugal.Its famed social services are no longer affordable.The population is shrinking.Mr Chávez, its Venezuelan patron, is being treated for cancer and faces a close election in October.And the Cuban leadership is gerontocratic: Fidel is 85, Raúl is 80 and the average age of the Politburo is over 70.The históricos, as those who fought in the revolution are known, are dying off.With Mr Lage gone, they have no visible successors.Raúl’s opportunity to institutionalise the system has come very late in the day.“We either rectify things, or we run out of time to carry on skirting the abyss *and+we sink,” he warned in his December 2010 speech.勞爾看起來充分意識到古巴共產(chǎn)主義的時間非常緊迫。經(jīng)濟完全缺乏效率。2008年委內(nèi)瑞拉的援助被災難性的颶風和全球金融危機對古巴旅游業(yè)和貿(mào)易的打擊所抵消。國家的資金迅速縮水，但人民生活水準依然低下。古巴著名的社會服務已經(jīng)入不敷出。人口也在減少。她的資助者、委內(nèi)瑞拉的查韋斯先生正接受癌癥治療，而且面臨著將于十月份舉行的勢均力敵的大選。此外，古巴政治是老人政治：菲德爾85歲，勞爾89歲，政治局的平均年齡是70多歲。那些1959年革命的參加者正在陸續(xù)離開人世。在拉格先生被解職后，他們沒有明顯的繼任者。勞爾進行制度性變革的機會來得太晚了。他在2010年12月的講話中說：“我們或者是進行變革，或者是失去跳過深淵的時機而從此沉沒?！?/p>

-------------------------[注1]本文是《經(jīng)濟學人》3月24日期關于古巴的七篇系列報告的第一篇。[注2]桑丘潘沙和唐吉坷德是小說《唐吉坷德》中的兩個主要人物，前者是后者的隨從。http://ecocn.org/thread-65453-1-1.html 譯者：西米

[2012.03.24]Adagio, OPERA 悠著點，OPERA Neutrinos 中微子

Adagio, OPERA 悠著點，OPERA

An experiment clocks neutrinos at their expected clip—ie, not faster than light 一項實驗檢測了中微子的速度，結(jié)果符合預想；也就是說并未超過光速

Mar 24th 2012 | from the print edition

FOUR weeks ago researchers at the OPERA collaboration, in Italy, discovered a glitch that may account for their startling finding last September that elusive particles called neutrinos move faster than light, in flagrant disregard of Albert Einstein’s theory of relativity.Now the first crosscheck from a rival experiment seems to vindicate the overwhelming majority of physicists who were convinced all along that an error must have crept in to OPERA’s analysis.On March 16th members of the ICARUS collaboration posted a paper on arXiv, an online repository, which reports that neutrinos they looked at are not travelling faster than light.4周前，意大利的OPERA合作（OPERA collaboration）團隊的研究人員發(fā)現(xiàn)了一個儀器有點問題，這或許可以解釋他們?nèi)ツ?月震驚一時的發(fā)現(xiàn)：一種名為中微子的詭秘粒子居然違反了阿爾伯特?愛因斯坦的相對論，速度超過了光速?，F(xiàn)在，同行的另一實驗第一次核查了結(jié)果，似乎證實了絕大多數(shù)物理學家一直確信的情況：在OPERA的研究中一定發(fā)生了什么失誤。3月16日，ICARUS合作團隊的成員在網(wǎng)上智庫arXiv上貼出了一篇論文，宣稱他們追蹤的中微子的速度并未超過光速。

Both OPERA and ICARUS study neutrinos sent from Europe’s main particle-physics laboratory, CERN.The particles are created in one of CERN’s accelerators, located just outside Geneva, and travel through the Earth’s crust to a laboratory beneath Gran Sasso, a mountainous massif in the Apennines.ICARUS’s measurements, all seven of them(not bad, given neutrinos’ unwillingness to interact with anything, including detectors), were taken at the end of last year, after the beam had been tweaked to improve the accuracy of the data.OPERA和ICARUS團隊都在研究從歐洲主要的粒子物理實驗室CERN中發(fā)出的中微子。這些粒子是在CERN在日內(nèi)瓦郊外的一臺加速器中產(chǎn)生的，它們穿過地殼，到達阿爾卑斯山脈格蘭薩索（Gran Sasso）群峰地層之下的另一個實驗室。ICARUS團隊的全部七次檢測都是在中微子束經(jīng)過改進從而提高了數(shù)據(jù)精度之后，于去年年底進行的。中微子惰性很強，與任何事物包括檢測器都很少有相互作用，所以能有七次成功的實驗算是很不錯的了。

OPERA, too, tapped the modified beam, but reported in November that its un-Einsteinian result persisted.But then, on February 23rd, its researchers owned up to discovering what could be a source of experimental error in the Global Positioning System(GPS)signals used to synchronise atomic clocks at either end of the neutrino beam.Specifically, it concerns the optical-fibre connector that brings the GPS signal to OPERA’s master clock.This, the OPERA team said, may not have been functioning properly when the measurements were taken.OPERA團隊同樣用經(jīng)過改進的中微子束進行實驗，但他們?nèi)ツ?1月再次報告了與愛因斯坦理論相悖的結(jié)果。后來，今年2月23日，該團隊的研究人員承認，他們用以使中微子束兩端的原子鐘同步的全球定位系統(tǒng)（GPS）信號中發(fā)現(xiàn)了可能導致實驗誤差的來源。具體地說，這與將GPS信號傳輸?shù)絆PERA主時鐘的光纖連接器有關。OPERA團隊認為，該連接器可能在他們進行實驗時工作不正常。

According to an anonymous leak published on the website of Science magazine, after tightening the connection and then measuring the time it takes data to travel the length of the fibre, the researchers found that the data arrive 60 nanoseconds earlier.That is precisely the time by which neutrinos appeared to have overtaken light on their 730km(450-mile)trip.據(jù)在《科學》雜志網(wǎng)站上匿名貼出的一則泄露報告稱，把接頭擰緊后再行測試，研究人員發(fā)現(xiàn)，數(shù)據(jù)通過光纖全長的時間縮短了60毫微秒。這正是中微子在其730公里（450英里）的行程中好像比光提前到達的時間。

However, in February OPERA still seemed to be hedging its bets.Its researchers pointed to a second potential source of error which, if confirmed, would actually reinforce its surprise result.(This was related to a device called an oscillator, used to provide the time stamps needed to synchronise the clocks at CERN and Gran Sasso.)ICARUS’s findings now make that much less likely.但2月份OPERA團隊似乎還未放棄賭注。該團隊的研究人員指出了第二個可能的誤差來源，如經(jīng)證實，它實際上可以強化他們的爆炸性結(jié)果。（這一誤差來源與一種名為振蕩器的裝置有關，這一裝置為CERN與格蘭薩索實驗室中的原子鐘提供同步所需的時間標識。）ICARUS團隊的發(fā)現(xiàn)令這一可能性大為減小。

Sergio Bertolucci, CERN’s research director, stresses that throughout the superluminal saga OPERA’s researchers have behaved with “perfect scientific integrity”.They have opened their methods and data to scrutiny and invited independent measurements.The superluminal jolt spurred physicists to action.“This is how science works,” Dr Bertolucci says.CERN的研究主任薩爾吉奧?貝爾托盧奇（Sergio Bertolucci）強調(diào)，在整個超光速問題的探討過程中，OPERA的研究人員表現(xiàn)出了“完美的科學誠信”。他們公開了他們的研究方法和數(shù)據(jù)供人們仔細檢查，并鼓勵他人的獨立實驗。超光速造成的震撼讓物理學家振奮，并投入了進一步工作?！翱茖W工作就該如此，”貝爾托盧奇博士這樣說。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65447-1-1.html 譯者：悠悠萬事97

[2012.03.17]Afghanistan: The lowered bar still looks high 難以逾越的障礙 Afghanistan 阿富汗

The lowered bar still looks high 兩國消除了部分隔閡，但障礙似乎仍難以逾越

A random massacre knocks even more confidence in the Western strategy 一次意外的屠殺事件進一步損害了外界對西方戰(zhàn)略的信任 Mar 17th 2012 | KABUL | from the print edition

WESTERN ambitions in Afghanistan have shrunk to a level so modest, they hardly seem commensurate with the investment of blood and treasure.This week, immediately before talks with President Barack Obama that were dominated by the war, David Cameron, Britain’s prime minister, defined “doing the job” in Afghanistan as leaving the country “l(fā)ooking after its own security, not being a haven for terror, without the involvement of foreign troops.” That does not seem too much to ask.Democracy, women’s rights, even political stability: all these are now at best subsidiary parts of a job that has consumed the past decade.At present the campaign involves a NATO-led International Security Assistance Force, ISAF, of 130,000 soldiers, 90,000 of them American.西方目前在阿富汗想達到的戰(zhàn)略目標是如此有限，與遭受的人員傷亡及投入資金極不相稱。本周，就在與奧巴馬總統(tǒng)舉行主要討論阿富汗戰(zhàn)爭的會談前不久，英國首相大衛(wèi)-卡梅倫將在阿富汗 “執(zhí)行任務”定義為：讓阿富汗“在沒有外國軍隊協(xié)助的情況下，自己能夠勝任安保工作、不再是恐怖分子的避風港”。這個要求似乎并不過分。民主、婦女權(quán)利甚至政治穩(wěn)定：現(xiàn)在充其量只能算是西方在阿富汗開展行動（已經(jīng)持續(xù)了十年）的次要目標。目前，在阿富汗執(zhí)行任務的是一支由北約領導的國際安全援助部隊（ISAF），該部隊一共有13萬名士兵，其中的9萬人都來自美國。

In the early hours of March 11th one of those Americans apparently lost his mind and went on a murderous rampage in Kandahar province, killing 16 Afghans, including nine children, in their homes.After that, it is hard to dispel the notion that ISAF’s mission, even with its truncated objectives, is in serious trouble.As American soldiers and officials have been quick to point out, this was a freak if horrific incident.It could happen to any army anywhere.Yet it happened to NATO’s in Afghanistan, and not long after some of its soldiers had caused outrage by mindlessly burning copies of the Koran.Others had been filmed apparently urinating on the corpses of militants they had just killed.在3月11日早晨，一名據(jù)說喪失理智的美國士兵在坎大哈省闖入居民家中槍殺了16名阿富汗人，受害者當中有9名是兒童。這次事件發(fā)生以后，不得不讓人產(chǎn)生一種感覺：雖然國際安全援助部隊的任務目標已經(jīng)縮減，但即使是要實現(xiàn)縮減后的目標現(xiàn)在也有大麻煩了。就像美國士兵及官員后來迅速指出的那樣，這一事件雖然可怕但卻反常。類似事件可能發(fā)生在全球各地的任何一支軍隊中。然而，在幾名士兵無意中焚燒了《古蘭經(jīng)》導致阿富汗民眾憤怒之后不久，駐阿富汗的北約軍隊就發(fā)生了這一事件。還有其他士兵被拍到似乎在他們之前剛殺死的武裝分子的尸體上小便。

It all adds up to an abiding, albeit unfair, impression of an army that has lost both its discipline and its sense of purpose.Taliban and other insurgents use indiscriminate methods of slaughter and are responsible, according to the United Nations, for nearly four-fifths of civilian deaths.Even so, the Taliban accused “sick-minded American savages” of a “blood-soaked and inhumane crime”.盡管不太公平，但所有這些事件都更加讓人覺得這支軍隊已經(jīng)喪失了紀律與目標。據(jù)聯(lián)合國稱，阿富汗平民死亡人數(shù)中有五分之四都是由塔利班及其他武裝分子發(fā)動襲擊造成的，而且他們在襲擊時不區(qū)分平民和軍人。盡管如此，塔利班仍然譴責“神智錯亂的殘暴的美國人”犯下了“血腥的、不人道的罪行”。

Wrong place, wrong time 錯誤的地點，錯誤的時間

Worse, it happened in a district where ISAF had made some of its most intense efforts to win local trust.Panjwai, not far from Kandahar city, was a crucible of the Taliban movement in the 1990s and a centre of militant violence until the “surge” of foreign troops in 2009.After that, under Fazluddin Agha, a formidable local governor, security improved, and foreign money has been poured into opening schools and clinics.更糟的是，該事件發(fā)生在距坎大哈市不遠的本杰瓦爾。國際安全援助部隊（ISAF）盡了最大的努力試圖贏得當?shù)鼐用竦男湃?。該地區(qū)在上世紀90年代是塔利班活動的中心；在2009年大量外國軍隊被派遣到這里之前是武裝分子發(fā)動暴力襲擊的中心。外國軍隊入駐之后，在一位強硬的當?shù)亻L官Fazluddin Agha的治理下，該地區(qū)的安全狀況有所改善，大量的外國資金投入到學校與診所的建設當中。

Mr Agha was killed by a suicide-bomber in January, but his influence may help explain the relatively restrained reaction in Panjwai itself to the atrocity.Elsewhere, many Afghans seemed ready to believe that ISAF was lying: that the soldier had not acted alone, or had been drunk.And many would have seen similarities with ISAF’s much resented policy of “night raids”—the seizure and often killing of militants in private houses.But local Panjwai elders said that, rather than take to the streets in fury, people were ready to await the result of an investigation into the deaths.All the same, on March 13th the Taliban seized the chance to launch an attack on the government delegation coming to pay its respects to the dead.In another incident, an Afghan driver raced in a stolen vehicle towards 200 marines at a southern base, as the American defence secretary’s plane was landing there.The man later died of burns.Fazluddin Agha在一月份的一次自殺式炸彈襲擊事件中喪生。本杰瓦爾慘案發(fā)生之后，當?shù)鼐用癖憩F(xiàn)得相對克制可能是因為這位已故長官的影響力仍然存在。在全國其他各地，許多阿富汗人似乎都認為國際安全援助部隊在撒謊：槍擊慘案的作案士兵不止一個人，作案者也并沒有喝醉。許多人也看到了這次慘案與引起阿富汗人強烈不滿的政策——“夜間襲擊”——的相似之處：在這種突然襲擊中，國際安全援助部隊經(jīng)常會闖入民宅擊斃武裝分子。但當?shù)氐睦先苏f，相對于憤怒地走上街頭抗議，他們正在等待這一慘案的調(diào)查結(jié)果。盡管如此，塔利班卻利用這個機會，在3月13日向前去哀悼死者的政府代表團發(fā)動了襲擊。在另外一起恐怖襲擊事件中，一名阿富汗人駕駛一輛偷來的汽車朝南部一個基地中的200名海軍士兵沖過去，當時美國國防部長的飛機剛降落。后來，襲擊者死于燒傷。

What might most alarm ISAF’s commanders, however, is that the massacre seemed to cause the greatest shock abroad, coming on top of a steady stream of ISAF casualties, the angry protests provoked by the Koran-burning, and the temporary withdrawal of foreign advisers from Mr Karzai’s ministries after two of them were killed in Kabul last month.Together, it all adds to the picture of a war going awry.Opinion polls this week showed 54% of Americans in favour of pulling troops out of Afghanistan even before the Afghan army is ready to take over.Some 73% of Britons polled think the war cannot be “won”.然而，可能最讓國際安全援助部隊的長官們緊張的是這一屠殺事件在國外似乎也引起了極大的震動，甚至超過了國際安全援助部隊自身不斷遭受人員傷亡、駐阿士兵焚燒《古蘭經(jīng)》引發(fā)的憤怒抗議及在兩名外國顧問于上個月被殺害以后從卡爾扎伊的政府部門中暫時撤回顧問人員引起的反應。所有這些都讓民眾更加覺得戰(zhàn)爭已經(jīng)越來越偏離其本來的目的。本周進行的民調(diào)顯示，有54%的美國人甚至支持在阿富汗軍隊做好接手國內(nèi)安保工作的準備之前就從阿富汗撤軍。接受調(diào)查的英國民眾中，約有73%的人認為這場戰(zhàn)爭不可能“取勝”。

Inevitably, it has all put pressure on the politicians to show they are doing their best to bring the troops home.In their talks, Mr Obama and Mr Cameron discussed the drawdown.The date at which all combat operations are handed over to Afghan forces is still meant to be the end of 2014.But Mr Cameron said Britain and America are now “absolutely in lockstep” on ending NATO’s “l(fā)ead combat role” around mid-2013, presumably at the end of the summer fighting season.這些必然會給政府官員帶來壓力，迫使他們表現(xiàn)出他們正在盡最大的努力將部隊撤回國內(nèi)。在奧巴馬與卡梅倫的會晤中，他們討論了縮減阿富汗駐軍的問題。將作戰(zhàn)任務全部移交給阿富汗軍隊的時間仍然是在2014年年底。但卡梅倫說英國與美國現(xiàn)在正“以絕對一致的步調(diào)”在2013年年中結(jié)束北約軍隊的“作戰(zhàn)主導角色”，有可能在2013年夏天作戰(zhàn)季結(jié)束之后。

It is not clear what this means in practice, but the generals actually fighting the war are dead against any acceleration of the “transition” timetable.Not only do they hope foreign forces may inflict further damage on the insurgency before then, but they also need the time to train an Afghan army that can outlast both their presence and the Taliban.這一說法最終操作起來會如何還不清楚，但實際參加作戰(zhàn)任務的指揮官們卻堅決反對加快“轉(zhuǎn)交作戰(zhàn)任務”的步伐。他們不僅希望北約軍隊在此之前能讓叛亂人員遭到更沉重的打擊，他們還需要時間訓練阿富汗軍隊，使其能夠在外國軍隊撤離后勝任安保工作并能壓制住塔利班。

The shooting adds fresh strain to ISAF’s relations with Mr Karzai and his government, on whose behalf, it is sometimes hard to remember, it is fighting.Mr Karzai has now called for NATO-led forces to keep out of Afghan villages.When Leon Panetta, the American defence secretary, showed up in Afghanistan this week, he seemed unlikely to make much progress on the biggest item on the bilateral agenda, forging a “strategic partnership agreement” meant to govern the security relationship after 2014, when both sides hope American troops will stay in Afghanistan, though no longer on the front line.Of the two big sticking points, one has recently budged, with an agreement to transfer some detainees to Afghan custody.The other, however, the Afghan demand for an end to “night raids”, looks harder than ever.At the very least, America may have to agree that the raids will all be “Afghan-led”.ISAF says most already are.這次槍擊事件使得國際安全援助部隊與卡爾扎伊及阿富汗政府的關系更加緊張。后者有時候都忘了這場戰(zhàn)爭是為了他們而打。現(xiàn)在卡爾扎伊要求北約軍隊不要進入阿富汗村莊。當美國國防部長萊昂?帕內(nèi)塔本周抵達阿富汗時，他似乎不可能在雙方議事日程中最主要的議題上取得太大進展。該議題即達成“戰(zhàn)略性合作協(xié)議”，該協(xié)議旨在規(guī)定2014年以后雙方的安全合作關系。屆時，盡管美軍不再參與前線作戰(zhàn)，但雙方都希望美國軍隊能都繼續(xù)駐扎在阿富汗。在影響雙方談判的兩個主要問題中，其中一個已經(jīng)取得些許成果：雙方達成協(xié)議將部分囚犯轉(zhuǎn)交給阿富汗看管。而第二個問題，也就是阿富汗政府要求北約軍隊停止開展“夜間襲擊”，似乎比以往任何時候都難以解決。至少，美國得同意所有的夜間襲擊都要由“阿富汗領導”。國際安全援助部隊表示，事實上大多數(shù)的夜間襲擊行動已經(jīng)是在阿富汗部隊的領導之下進行的。

A third obstacle has now arisen: extraterritoriality, or the American insistence that soldiers such as the Panjwai suspect—who has now been flown out of Afghanistan—are investigated and judged by the American army, not in the Afghan courts.From Baghdad to Okinawa, this is a thorny issue, and now is not a good time in Kabul to negotiate an agreement guaranteeing American troops immunity from local prosecution even after 2014.現(xiàn)在，阻礙雙方達成最終協(xié)議的第三個障礙出現(xiàn)了：治外法權(quán)。也就是說：美國堅持其士兵（如現(xiàn)已乘機離開阿富汗的本杰瓦爾槍擊慘案的嫌犯）必須由美國軍方來調(diào)查和審判，而不是在阿富汗法庭受審。從巴格達到?jīng)_繩，這都是一個棘手的問題。但是現(xiàn)在，要討論即使是保證2014年以后美軍士兵不在當?shù)厥軐彽膮f(xié)議似乎都不太是時候。

Watching all this closely will be the Taliban.They will be aware of Western donors’ intention to scale back a proposed 352,000-strong Afghan security force, which is supposed to ensure the survival of the Kabul regime after 2014.And on March 15th they suspended talks with the Americans about opening an office in Qatar, which was to have been the venue for a dialogue.The idea of talks was based on the assumption that both sides know the Taliban cannot hope to conquer and hold Kabul and the north of the country, whereas the south will never have peace until the Taliban are brought into politics.塔利班肯定正密切關注著事件的進展。他們會注意到西方捐助者縮減原定為352000人的阿富汗安全部隊的意圖，該部隊承擔著在2014年之后保護阿富汗政府的職責。在3月15日，塔利班停止了與美軍關于在卡塔爾設立一個辦公室的談判，該辦公室本來是要作為雙方對話的場所。雙方對話是基于這樣一個假設：雙方都清楚地知道塔利班不可能攻下并守住喀布爾及北方地區(qū)；同時，在承認塔利班是合法的政治力量之前，阿富汗南方地區(qū)也將永無寧日。

One danger in the Western disarray over Afghanistan is that the Taliban may begin to dream grandly again of restoring their Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.And in this ambition Afghanistan’s big neighbour, Pakistan, itself angry and disillusioned with the West, and still a vital source of support and sanctuary for the Taliban, might think it has an interest in encouraging them.西方國家在阿富汗現(xiàn)在面臨著一個混亂的局面，這對他們來說有一個隱憂：塔利班可能會異想天開地認為他們又有機會復興他們的阿富汗伊斯蘭酋長國。仍然是塔利班的主要支持力量并為塔利班提供庇護的巴基斯坦已經(jīng)對西方相當憤怒并且不抱有任何幻想。阿富汗旁邊這個舉足輕重的鄰國，可能會覺得自己在支持塔利班卷土重來的野心中確實有利可圖。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65224-1-1.html 譯者：Dezazer

[2012.03.17]Flavoursome research “味兒足”的研究

Matter and antimatter 物質(zhì)與反物質(zhì)

Flavoursome research “味兒足”的研究

Physicists are closing in on how matter differs from antimatter 物理學家們正攜手最終解釋物質(zhì)究竟如何與反物質(zhì)不同 Mar 17th 2012 | from the print edition

HOT on the heels of results from Fermilab, in America, which reported last week on an esoteric phenomenon called charge-conjugation/parity(CP)violation involving equally esoteric subatomic particles known as D0-mesons, a second research group, the Daya Bay Collaboration of more than 40 institutions, mainly from China and America, has found a related result involving neutrinos.CP violation is an asymmetry between matter and antimatter and the experiment, based at a complex of nuclear reactors 50km(30 miles)north of Hong Kong, has settled a longstanding puzzle that bears on the question of whether neutrinos, too, experience it.That, in turn, is related to the deeper question of why the universe is made of matter rather than having originally had equal amounts of matter and antimatter.If such a primordial equity had prevailed, the two would have annihilated each other, leaving a universe filled only with energy.上周，美國的費米實驗室（Fermilab）報告了涉及D0介子的CP破缺（電荷共軛/宇稱對稱性破缺）現(xiàn)象，這種現(xiàn)象連同這種亞原子粒子都不怎么為一般人所了解。還沒多久，另一個研究小組在中微子上發(fā)現(xiàn)了一個相關的實驗結(jié)果，這個名為大亞灣合作研究項目的研究小組是由主要來自美國和中國的40多家研究機構(gòu)組成的。CP破缺是物質(zhì)與反物質(zhì)之間的一種不對稱性。這個在香港以北50公里的核反應堆綜合設施內(nèi)完成的實驗，解開了一個有助于了解中微子是否也存在CP破缺的長久謎題。而這又聯(lián)系到一個更深層的問題：為什么世界是由物質(zhì)組成，而不是像初始時那樣存在等量的物質(zhì)與反物質(zhì)。如果這種原始的均勢在宇宙中存在，物質(zhì)與反物質(zhì)將會相互湮滅，留下一個僅僅充滿著能量的世界。

Strictly speaking, the Daya Bay experiment looked at antineutrinos rather than neutrinos.These particles are a by-product of nuclear fission, and the six reactors at Daya Bay and nearby Ling Ao turn them out in prodigious quantities.The idea was to see how many of these antineutrinos disappear before reaching the experiment’s main detector(pictured above), which is housed in an underground hall near the reactors.This, the team hoped, would help elucidate a phenomenon known as neutrino oscillation.嚴格來說，大亞灣這個實驗觀察的是反中微子而不是中微子。他們是核裂變的副產(chǎn)品，大亞灣和附近的嶺澳核電站的六個反應堆可以源源提供大量此類粒子。實驗的想法是看看有多少反中微子在到達主探測器（見上圖，安放在反應堆附近的地下大廳中）之前消失。研究小組此前是希望它可以幫助了解中微子振蕩這一現(xiàn)象。

Neutrinos(and antineutrinos)come in three “flavours”: electron-neutrinos, muon-neutrinos and tau-neutrinos.A given neutrino can, however, oscillate between these flavours.As a consequence, some of the electron-antineutrinos spewed out by the reactors were expected to morph into other sorts and thus escape detection by apparatus designed to count only electron-antineutrinos.And the researchers did indeed observe 6% fewer of the beasts than would have been the case if no oscillations had taken place.中微子（和反中微子）分為三種“味”：電子-中微子，μ介子-中微子和τ介子-中微子。一個指定的中微子仍然可以在這些“味”之間振蕩。因此，當一部分從反應堆噴射出來的電子-反中微子變成其他的“味”時，專門設計來探測電子-反中微子的儀器就探測不到這部分。實驗中，研究人員確實觀測到這種詭異的粒子比沒有振蕩效應情況下預測的少了6%。

The way neutrinos oscillate is described by three numbers called mixing angles, which determine how likely this spot-changing is for any pair of flavours.Two of the angles have been known for some time.The remaining one, theta-13, which governs the relationship between electron-and tau-neutrinos, has proved elusive.Last year two experiments, T2K in Japan and MINOS in America, found hints of what it might be.The results from Daya Bay have at last allowed it to be determined accurately.To many physicists’ relief, they have confirmed that it is not zero.This is crucial, because if it had been zero they would have no experimental purchase on a fourth parameter, called delta.中微子振蕩的方式可以由三個被稱為混合角的參數(shù)描述，以此可以確定任意兩種味之間“振蕩”發(fā)生的概率。其中的兩個混合角已經(jīng)知道有一段時間了。余下的一個描述電子-中微子和τ介子-中微子之間振蕩的θ13被證明是難以捉摸的。去年的兩個實驗（日本的T2K和美國的MINOS）發(fā)現(xiàn)了找到這個參數(shù)可能值的跡象。而大亞灣這個實驗的結(jié)果則終于使該參數(shù)得以精確測定。讓很多物理學家欣慰的是，這些結(jié)果確認了這個參數(shù)不為零。這是很關鍵的，因為如果它為零，就沒有必要做實驗觀測第四個參數(shù)δ了。

Delta is a measure of how much neutrinos feel CP violation.And CP violation in neutrinos is something theorists can parlay into oodles of universe-preserving matter-antimatter asymmetry.Experiments like those at Daya Bay, involving antineutrinos from reactors, cannot measure delta directly.But the collaboration’s result bodes well for those that can.These include T2K and MINOS, both of which use particle accelerators to whip up beams of muon-neutrinos and send them to detectors hundreds of kilometres away.δ用來量度中微子受到CP破缺影響的程度。目前理論認為是“物質(zhì)-反物質(zhì)”之間的高不對稱性維持著物質(zhì)世界的穩(wěn)定，而中微子的CP破缺是理論物理學家用以研究這個不對稱性的有效途徑。大亞灣這類涉及反應堆拋出的反中微子的實驗，并不能直接測量δ。但是這個實驗項目的結(jié)果給了那些可以測量出該參數(shù)的實驗更多的信心。這些實驗包括T2K和MINOS，它們都是利用粒子加速器把μ介子-中微子束加速并射向數(shù)百公里外的探測器。

T2K was shut down by the earthquake and tsunami which shook Japan a year ago, but it has been back in business since January.In America, meanwhile, MINOS is being replaced with a fancier experiment called NOvA, which will start collecting data in 2013.With luck, then, the matter-antimatter conundrum—and with it the reason anything exists at all—will not remain a mystery much longer.T2K由于日本的地震和海嘯而于一年前關閉了，今年一月又重新投入使用。在美國的MINOS也正在被名為NOvA的更厲害的實驗所替代，新實驗將于2013年開始采集數(shù)據(jù)。到那時如果運氣好的話，“物質(zhì)-反物質(zhì)”的謎團，連同它所能解釋的為什么現(xiàn)在居然有物質(zhì)存在的難題，將不再是個謎。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65222-1-1.html 譯者：darcher

[2012.03.17]A Singapore cemetery: Brown study 一座新加坡墳場 A Singapore cemetery 一座新加坡墳場

Brown study 深思布朗山

Citizens rally to the defence of the dead, and their own heritage 公民奮起捍衛(wèi)逝者的權(quán)益，以及自己的文化傳承 Mar 17th 2012 | SINGAPORE | from the print edition

Sikh: for now, ye shall find 錫克說：現(xiàn)在，還得尋見[注1]

THAT it has survived this long is a sort of miracle.In the middle of Singapore, just north of the Pan-Island Expressway, lies 0.9 square km(0.3 square miles)of lush greenery, birdsong, and 80,000-100,000 tombs.Bukit Brown, named after a British merchant who lived nearby in the 19th century, is one of the world’s biggest Chinese graveyards outside China.在新加坡中部泛島高速公路北側(cè)有一座蓋地0.9平方公里的墳場。這片郁郁蔥蔥，鳥語聲聲，共有八到十萬塚墓地的墳場能夠幸存至今不能不說是一種奇跡。該地以19世紀時住在附近的一位英國商人命名，叫作武吉布朗山[注2]，它是中國以外世界上最大的華人墓地。

A peaceful, rather magical place, it is frequented by strollers, joggers, cyclists and, especially at this time of year, just ahead of the Qing Ming grave-sweeping festival in early April, by the filial, equipped with brooms and with “ghost money” to burn in tribute to the dead.這是一個幽靜奇妙的地方，有很多散步者，跑步者和騎自行車者常來光顧。此外，特別是每年4月初清明掃墓時節(jié)之前，大量孝子孝孫們會帶著掃帚和冥錢前來祭祀逝者。

Some graves date back to the 1830s, or, as the tomb inscriptions have it, the reign of the Daoguang emperor, sixth of China’s Qing dynasty.That was not long after Sir Stamford Raffles claimed the island for the British.Here lie buried Singapore’s pioneers and its heroes—both of the war with Japan, and of the commercial struggles that have always been the island’s lifeblood.The biggest tomb holds Ong Sam Leong, who died in 1917, having made a fortune out of his monopoly on the supply of coolie labour to phosphate mines on Christmas Island.墳場里的一些墳墓可以追溯到19世紀30年代，換句話說，根據(jù)碑文是立于中國清朝第六位皇帝道光年間。當時距斯坦福?萊佛士爵士[注3]將新加坡收歸英國版圖還沒過多久。這里沉睡著新加坡的先驅(qū)和英雄們，有的是和日本作戰(zhàn)時期的英雄，有的則是這個島國一直以來的命脈-商業(yè)斗爭中的豪強。其中最大的墳墓屬于1917年過世的王三龍。他當年曾壟斷了向圣誕島上的磷礦輸送苦力勞工的業(yè)務，并以此發(fā)家致富。

Like many other graves, it is protected not just by statues of fierce beasts, golden boys and jade maidens, but also by models of imposing Sikh guards.And it has 24 friezes illustrating filial piety: the woman who suckles her mother-in-law rather than her hungry infant;the boy who digs a cave by his parents’ tomb to comfort them during thunderstorms;the son who tastes his father’s stool to ascertain his state of health.和很多其它墳墓一樣，這座墳周圍不但有兇猛石獸，金童玉女保衛(wèi)，也放有威風的錫克衛(wèi)士像[注4]。碑上還刻有二十四孝浮雕：乳姑不怠，聞雷泣墓，嘗糞憂心等等。

These days Bukit Brown is also the haunt of an unlikely assortment of activists: descendants, heritage enthusiasts and nature-lovers, all hoping to persuade the government not to drive a planned eight-lane road through this unique piece of Singapore’s history.The road’s final alignment is to be announced soon.如今武吉布朗山也是一些本應互無瓜葛的活動分子共同心系的問題：這些人包括逝者后人，文化傳承熱衷分子還有自然愛好者。他們都希望勸服政府不要讓一條規(guī)劃中的八車道公路通過這片獨特的新加坡歷史保留地。該公路的最終線形將于近期公布。

Red-and-white plastic strips strung from poles mark the expected corridor.Numbered wooden pales mark graves likely to be in its path.The government’s Ministry of National Development says fewer than 5,000 will be affected, and all will be exhumed.在預計將要建造公路的位置兩邊立著柱子，之間系著紅白相間的塑料帶。對建造公路有妨礙的墳墓都被標出，旁邊插有帶著數(shù)字的木樁子。國家發(fā)展部宣布受到影響的墳墓不到五千座，這些墳墓將會被移走。

But the road will slice Bukit Brown in two and, say enthusiasts, destroy its character.Eventually, it will be given over to housing.Singapore’s population has doubled in the past 30 years, to 5.2m, and is expected to increase to 6.5m by 2050.The government favours the living over the dead.但是活動分子認為這條公路會把武吉布朗山一分為二，破壞其風貌。最終，這塊地區(qū)將會被改建成住宅區(qū)。新加坡的人口在過去三十年里已經(jīng)翻了一倍，現(xiàn)在已達520萬，到2050年預計將會增加到650萬。對政府來說，活人當然比死人重要。

Thanks to the internet, the energetic campaign to educate Singaporeans about Bukit Brown has put some pressure on the government.But fewer than 2,000 people have signed its petition.Bukit Brown really does need a miracle now.多虧了互聯(lián)網(wǎng)，這項充滿活力，旨在讓新加坡人更了解武吉布朗山的運動已經(jīng)在政府頭上施加了一定的壓力。但是目前只有不到2千人簽署了它對政府提出的請愿?，F(xiàn)在看來，要保留武吉布朗山確實需要一個奇跡。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65181-1-1.html 譯者：nayilus

[2012.03.10]Bandwagons and busts 從眾和災難 Costs 成本

Bandwagons and busts 從眾和災難

Nuclear plants are getting ever more expensive.But Asian countries may build them more cheaply 核電站變得越來越昂貴。但是亞洲國家建造核電站的成本可能較低

Mar 10th 2012 | from the print edition

A clear argument for nuclear power 這張照片很清楚地說明了應該用核能的理由

IN HAIYANG, ON the northern Chinese coast, and at Sanmen, farther south, an international consortium led by Westinghouse is well into building two AP1000s, with two more in the works;China plans eventually to have 12 split between the two sites.If the plans go ahead, each site will have as much capacity connected to the grid as the whole of Nigeria has today.Yet the two plants represent only a small fraction of China’s nuclear ambitions.Its pre-Fukushima plans to increase its nuclear capacity from 10GW to 80GW by 2020 may fall behind schedule, but China still looks certain to build more new nuclear plants than any other country over the decade to come—and possibly more than all others combined.由西屋電氣公司帶領的一支國際聯(lián)隊正在位于中國北方的海陽以及更南方的三門兩個沿海城市里建造核電站。兩座AP1000反應堆的建造已經(jīng)有了相當進展，此外這批工程還將再建造兩座反應堆。中國計劃最終將在這兩個地點建立共12座反應堆。如果一切照計劃行事，這兩個地點將擁有的核電容量各自都能超過今天尼日利亞全國電網(wǎng)的發(fā)電容量。但是兩座電廠只代表了中國核電抱負的一小部分。中國在福島事件之前訂立的計劃是在2020年前將核電容量從10千兆瓦提高到80千兆瓦。這一計劃現(xiàn)在可能無法按時達成了，但是在接下來的十年里，中國建造的新核電廠肯定比其它國家都要多，甚至可能比所有其它國家新建的核電廠總數(shù)還要多。

By nuclear standards, this is a big deal;China will add more nuclear capacity in those ten years than France has in total.But for China itself it is less big;nuclear will go from generating less than 2% of the country’s electricity to less than 5%.Ming Sung, who works for the Clean Air Task Force, an American think-tank in Beijing, points out that China is not betting on nuclear;it is betting on everything that offers an alternative to coal.China consumes half the world’s annual coal output, and has the supply problems, dirty air and huge death toll(hundreds of thousands a year from respiratory diseases)that go with it.Junda Lin of the China Greentech Initiative points out that the 2020 target for nuclear has to be seen in the context of a 200GW target for wind and an extra 100GW of hydropower.The idea is to try everything and see what works best.以核電標準來看，這可是個大工程。中國在這十年里增加的核電容量將會超過法國全國的總核電容量。但是這對中國來說就并不算大。核電容量將會從全國總發(fā)電容量的不到2%上升至不到5%。美國智囊集團“凈化空氣任務組織”駐北京的孫嗣敏指出中國并不是在核能上下注，而是在所有可以代替煤的能源形式上都下注。中國現(xiàn)在消耗世界煤炭年產(chǎn)量的一半，同時也面對與之俱來煤源供應、空氣污染和大量死亡者（每年因呼吸道疾病死亡者有幾十萬人）這些問題。中國綠色科技組織的林駿達指出之前定下的2020年核能目標要和200千兆瓦的風力發(fā)電和增加100千兆瓦的水力發(fā)電這些目標放在一起看?，F(xiàn)在的思路是要嘗試所有發(fā)電手段，看看哪一種最適合。

Most of the plants China is currently building are generation IIs derived from a French design it bought in the 1980s and now built by Chinese companies, but there are also Russian PWRs in Tianwan and Canadian Candus in Qinshan.In Taishan two EPRs are being built by Areva and the China Guangdong Nuclear Group, which has a long-standing relationship with the French industrial base from which its domestic designs ultimately derive.And then there are the AP1000s.Westinghouse won that contract in large part by promising to transfer the technology in full to local companies, but it hopes that its expertise will allow it to keep a prominent role in the Chinese industry.中國現(xiàn)在在建造的大多數(shù)核電站都是第二代核電站，是從80年代購買的一種法國核電站設計衍生出來的，由中國公司建造。不過在田灣也有俄羅斯的壓水反應堆（PWR），秦山核電站內(nèi)也有加拿大氘鈾核反應堆（Candu）。在臺山核電站內(nèi)阿?，m公司和中國廣東核電集團則正在合作建造兩座歐洲壓水堆（EPR）。中廣核與法國工業(yè)基礎有長期的合作關系，其國內(nèi)核電廠設計說到底是從法國借鑒來的。另外還有AP1000，西屋電氣能獲標這次工程有很大一部分原因在于其承諾將會把核電廠技術(shù)完全轉(zhuǎn)移給本地公司，不過西屋電氣希望自己在核電方面的專業(yè)水準能讓自己繼續(xù)保持住在中國核能行業(yè)內(nèi)的領頭地位。

After Fukushima the state council stopped approving new power stations and called for re-evaluations of the seismic and flooding risks faced by those already built and under construction.A new law expected later this year will take nuclear regulation away from the National Development and Reform Commission, the state’s industrial planners, and hand it over to the environment ministry, thus splitting the role of cheerleading from that of invigilation.Part of what passes for the Chinese government’s legitimacy comes from the perception that it can manage large-scale technology well.The backlash against China’s high-speed train programme after last year’s accident at Wenzhou, which provoked criticism and anger of a sort that Chinese leaders fear, would be dwarfed by what could be expected from a nuclear accident.在福島事件之后，國務院停止對新核電站的批準，并要求對那些已經(jīng)建好及尚在建造中的核電站面對洪水地震時的安全隱患進行一次再評估。今年稍后，一項新的法律將會把核監(jiān)管的責任從中國的工業(yè)計劃局－國家發(fā)展和改革委員會轉(zhuǎn)移到環(huán)境部手中。這么一來就把給核能搖旗吶喊的角色和對核能監(jiān)察管制的角色分離開來。中國政府的正統(tǒng)性有一部份來自于公眾認為其能良好管理大規(guī)模技術(shù)的看法。去年的溫州事故引發(fā)了中國領導人深以為懼的公眾抨擊和憤怒，造成人們對中國高鐵項目的激烈反對。但比起一旦發(fā)生核事故災難可能引起的民眾反應，這是小巫見大巫了。

A sincerely self-interested desire to avoid accidents, though, will not necessarily translate into a model regulatory infrastructure.A safety culture of constant questioning will not be easy to instil.And China’s nuclear regulatory workforce is already more stretched than that of other big economies in terms of employees per gigawatt under regulation.但是，出于自身利益而由衷地希望避免災難并不一定能就能產(chǎn)生優(yōu)秀的監(jiān)管基礎設施。要培養(yǎng)一種不斷質(zhì)疑的安全文化不是一件易事。而以監(jiān)管每一萬兆瓦核能的平均人數(shù)來看，中國的核能監(jiān)管人力已經(jīng)比很多大型經(jīng)濟體更為短缺了。

Beside the seaside 臨海之濱

Another new law will outline future plans for the industry.Some expect China’s nuclear boom to slow down in the wake of Fukushima, with new capacity perhaps reaching only 40GW by 2020.And China could get proportionally more AP1000s and fewer of its own home-made designs, the safety of which may be less assured.All China’s current plants are by the sea, both because it is convenient for cooling and because that is where the demand is.There have been plans for nuclear plants inland, cooled by rivers, but concerns about the availability of water in drier years to come and the risk of contaminating it may cause these plans to be shelved.另一項新法案將會概述核能行業(yè)未來的計劃。有人預計中國的核繁榮在福島事件之后將會放慢腳步，其2020年的核電容量可能只會達到40千兆瓦。中國也可能會在建造核電站時加大AP1000所占的比例，減少安全水準沒有那么可靠的國產(chǎn)核電站設計。中國現(xiàn)有的所有核電站都是位于沿海，這既是因為沿海更易于提供冷卻，也是因為沿海是電力需求最大的地方。也曾有過在內(nèi)地建造利用江河進行冷卻的核電站計劃，但是對旱年冷卻水可能會出現(xiàn)短缺的憂慮，加上核電站可能會造成污染的風險也許是這些計劃最終沒有落實的原因。

China’s expansion into nuclear power is hardly a market-driven development, but it helps that the plants involved look comparatively cheap.There are two ways of measuring the cost of a nuclear power plant: the “overnight” cost, which counts up the material and labour that goes into a new plant as if it had all been purchased simultaneously, and the “l(fā)evellised” cost, which is a measure of the total amount of energy a plant provides over its life divided by the total expenditure—construction, operation, maintenance, fuel and, eventually, decommissioning.One is the cost of the capacity to produce electricity, the other the cost of the electricity produced.The 2010 edition of the IEA/NEA Costs of Generating Electricity study puts overnight costs for Chinese generation II plants at $1,700 for every kilowatt of capacity, giving a gigawatt plant a price tag of less than $2 billion.For the AP1000s the estimated costs are higher($2,300/kW), and by the time the projects are finished they may be higher still;these are the first AP1000s being built anywhere, so its wise to expect surprises.Schedules are being stretched, and the Chinese contractors for key parts of the third and fourth AP1000s are falling behind a bit, according to Westinghouse.中國大規(guī)模開發(fā)核能幾乎算不上是市場驅(qū)動的一項發(fā)展，但是其建造的核電站相對較便宜確實對發(fā)展是有所幫助的。一座核電站的成本有兩種方法可以測量：“隔夜”成本，即算入所有建造新電站的材料和勞力成本，就好像所有這些都是同時購買的一樣；還有一種方法是“平準”成本，即測量核電站終生使用過程中提供的總電能，除以所有的總開銷，包括建造，運作，維護，燃料以及最終廢棄的全部成本。前者衡量發(fā)電容量的成本，后者衡量實際發(fā)電的成本。2010版本的國際能源署/核能署發(fā)電成本報告中將中國第二代核電廠的隔夜成本定在每千瓦容量1700美元，這意味著一座容量為1千兆瓦的電廠價格為20億美元不到。而AP1000電廠的估計成本要更高（每千瓦2300美元），等到項目完成時它的實際成本可能會進一步上升。在中國建造的這幾座反應堆是世界上第一批建造的AP1000，所以工程中出現(xiàn)和預計不符的現(xiàn)象是很正常的。工程進度目前正在不斷延后，根據(jù)西屋電氣，為第三和第四座AP1000提供關鍵部件的一些中國供應商進度已有點落后了。

Still, almost anywhere else in the world, these figures would today be a source of envy—or incredulity.When companies were beginning to pitch generation III reactors ten years ago, they claimed that better, standardised designs and improved construction techniques would make them both safer and cheaper.In Western countries that second claim has gone by the board.British studies in 2004, 2006 and 2008 put the overnight cost of new PWRs at $2,233/kW, then $2,644, then $3,000.Estimates from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology(MIT)rose from $2,208/kW to $4,000 over roughly the same time.The NEA quotes costs for an EPR in Belgium(now cancelled)at $5,400 per kW.Capacity fired by gas turbines, for comparison, can cost less than a fifth of that.即使這樣，在世界上任何其它地方，現(xiàn)今核電廠成本可以達到這種數(shù)字都會招來嫉妒，或者懷疑。一些公司在十年前開始推廣第三代反應堆時，它們宣稱更優(yōu)秀的標準化設計，加上更先進的建造技術(shù)可以讓這些電廠不但更安全，也更便宜。在西方國家，這第二個賣點已經(jīng)被徹底粉碎了。英國在2004，2006和2008年的三份研究報告給出的新型PWR的隔夜成本分別是每千瓦2233美元，2644美元和3000美元。麻省理工學院（MIT）的估價則在大約同一時期內(nèi)從每千瓦2208美元上升到了4000美元。核能署為比利時的一座EPR（現(xiàn)在已取消）的估價達到每千瓦5400美元。相比之下，燃氣輪機發(fā)電單位容量的成本可以低于其五分之一。

Real construction costs, which include the cost of borrowing the money needed, are even higher than overnight costs.Construction costs for the two AP1000s that Progress Energy has planned for its Levy site in Florida have recently been reported at about $20 billion, which works out at about $9,000 per kW and strongly suggests that the reactors will not be built.實際建造成本也包括所需貸款的借貸成本，這么一來就比隔夜成本還要更高。進步能源公司計劃在其佛羅里達州萊維縣電廠建造兩臺AP1000反應堆，最近該建造成本據(jù)報達到大約200億美元，折合下來就是每千瓦9000美元，這意味著這兩個反應堆很有可能被取消。

Cost escalation has been the rule throughout the industry’s history.In the late 1960s what is now called the “great bandwagon market” took off in America.Companies selling plants they had no real experience of building offered fixed prices to make them attractive.Utilities keen to reduce their reliance on coal in an age of clean-air standards took the bait.As orders flooded in, costs started to climb.Projects meant to be completed in years dragged on for more than a decade, in part because of new environmental concerns, in part because designs were revised as lessons were learned.At the Vogtle plant, in Georgia, a pair of reactors originally priced at $660m in 1971 came in at $8.87 billion 16 years later.Half the projects ended up cancelled.成本飆升在核能行業(yè)內(nèi)一直以來都是很普遍的。在60年代末，美國核能行業(yè)出現(xiàn)了現(xiàn)在被稱為“大型從眾市場”[注]的現(xiàn)象。公司在出售自己并沒有實際建造經(jīng)驗的電站時提出了固定價格吸引買家。面對清潔空氣標準時代的來臨，公用企業(yè)急于減少對煤炭的依賴，紛紛上鉤了。隨著大量訂單涌入，成本開始向上攀爬。本應幾年完工的項目拖了十幾年，有一部分原因是來自新的環(huán)境顧慮，也有一部分原因是隨著在實際建造中學到經(jīng)驗電站設計被不斷的改進。喬治亞州的沃格特勒核電站在1971年訂造，一開始標價6億6000萬美元的兩座反應堆最終花了16年才建好，總成本88.7億美元。有一半的項目最終都被取消了。

The French experience is often quoted as a positive counter-history to the American mess.France had long been keen on energy security.When it made PWRs based on a Westinghouse design a national priority in the early 1970s, it brought a thorough-minded discipline to the matter, building its capacity region by region, improving the designs as it went along and increasing the size of its plants to reap economies of scale.Having the same contractor and customer for so many plants allowed the system to learn from mistakes and to refit older plants to newer standards.Even so, according to calculations by Arnulf Grübler of IIASA, a think-tank near Vienna, each of the six designs France has fielded has cost more per kilowatt than the previous one had.He estimates that the four reactors built in the 1990s cost between $2,267 and $3,252/kW in 2010 dollars, more than twice the real cost of capacity built in the 1970s and early 1980s.The first two EPRs to be built in Europe, in France and Finland, have both gone extravagantly over schedule and budget.法國的核能發(fā)展史經(jīng)常被作為一個正面教材，拿來和美國混亂的核能發(fā)展史做對比。法國從很久以前就開始關注能源安全問題。70年代初，法國將基于西屋電氣設計的PWR開發(fā)作為國家重點項目。法國在這個項目上引入了非常徹底的紀律作風，一個地區(qū)接著一個地區(qū)有條不紊地建造核電容量，在這個過程中同步改進其設計，并擴大電站規(guī)模來達到規(guī)模經(jīng)濟。這么多電站都是同一個顧客，同一個承包商，這讓整個核電系統(tǒng)可以從錯誤中學習到經(jīng)驗，將舊的電站改修來滿足新的標準。即使這樣，根據(jù)“國際應用系統(tǒng)分析學院”（維也納附近的智囊機構(gòu)）的阿努爾夫?格魯伯勒計算，法國在實際建造中用到的六個電站設計論單位千瓦的成本，每一個都比前一個更貴。他估計90年代的四座反應堆成本折算成2010年美元的話介于每千瓦2267美元到3252美元之間，這是70年代和80年代初建造的核電容量實際成本的兩倍多。歐洲最先建造的兩座EPR分別是在法國和芬蘭建造的，兩者完工日期都大大延后，且大幅度超出了預算。

A decade ago the nuclear industry hoped that the combination of safe, low-cost generation III reactors and governments eager to encourage lower carbon-dioxide emissions would lead to a “nuclear renaissance”.In the West those low costs have failed to materialise, so the renaissance is largely stalled.Whereas a few years ago Britain was talking of building eight new reactors to replace its ageing fleet, only two are likely to make it in the near term.Steve Thomas, an economist at the University of Greenwich, argues that even with a fixed carbon price of €36/tonne and a guaranteed price for the electricity(both features of a currently planned re-regulation of Britain’s energy market;today’s EU carbon price is under €10), those plans remain vulnerable.十年之前核能行業(yè)希望安全廉價的第三代反應堆和急于鼓勵降低二氧化碳排放的政府兩者結(jié)合起來，將會帶來一場“核能復興”。在西方低廉成本的保證并沒有兌現(xiàn)，因此這種復興基本上被擱置了。幾年前英國曾談論要建造八座新的反應堆來替換其老化的核能設施，但是現(xiàn)在只有兩座可能在近期建造。格林威治大學的經(jīng)濟學家斯蒂夫?托馬斯認為即使把碳價格鎖定在每噸36歐元，同時保證電力價格（目前有一項計劃要對英國能源市場重新實施監(jiān)管，這兩項都是該計劃的組成部份，現(xiàn)在歐盟的碳價格不到10歐元），這些核能計劃要想實施還是有重重問題。

In a capital-intensive industry such as the nuclear one, the cost of capital is always crucial, and higher overnight costs magnify the problem.Calculations of the levellised costs of energy by UBS, a bank, show clearly that the cost of capital dominates the picture.For a plant costing $5,500 per kW, capital makes up 75% of total costs in Europe and America.UBS reckons the levellised cost of such a plant in Europe is 11% higher than the cost of a gas plant.It would take a quintupling of the carbon price to wipe out that differential.And those calculations assume that it is as easy to borrow to finance a nuclear plant, with all its uncertainties and regulatory risk, as it is to finance a gas plant, which is probably unrealistic.在像核能這樣一個資本密集的行業(yè)內(nèi)，資本成本一向都是很關鍵的，較高的隔夜成本將會把問題擴大化。瑞士銀行對能源平準成本的計算清楚顯示資本成本占據(jù)主導地位。要建一座每千瓦需要5500美元的核電站，在歐洲和美國資本占所有成本的75%。瑞士銀行認為如果就平準成本來看，這樣的電站在歐洲的成本比天然氣發(fā)電站成本高11%。碳價要翻五倍才能抵銷這一價格差異。而且這些計算都假設不管建造的是核電站還是天然氣發(fā)電站，要為兩者借貸募資是一樣容易的?？紤]到建造核電站有著大量不確定性，再加上監(jiān)管風險，這個假設似乎不太實際。

Step on the gas 加大油門

In eastern Europe, where Russian dominance of gas markets is a political issue and electricity markets are still quite regulated, governments may consider such a differential acceptable.The Czech Republic is about to tender for new generation III PWRs, and Poland has plans along those lines too.But in America things look very different.Asked if Fukushima put America’s nuclear renaissance on ice, Ernest Moniz of MIT replies succinctly: “No.Shale gas did.” For all the production incentives, loan guarantees and indemnity for costs due to regulatory change offered by government, the sharp drop in gas prices caused by new sources of supply ruled out new nuclear plants in any market where the two energy sources compete freely.According to UBS, the advantage of gas over nuclear in America is roughly twice what it is in Europe.在東歐，俄羅斯在天然氣市場上的主導地位是一個政治問題，而且電力市場的監(jiān)管程度依然非常高。這么一來東歐政府可能會覺得這樣的差價是可以接受的。捷克馬上就要進行新的第三代PWR建筑投標，波蘭也有類似的計劃。但是在美國情況則非常不同。在被問到福島事件是否凍結(jié)了美國的核復興時，MIT的俄尼斯特?莫尼茲給出了一個言簡意賅的回答：“不，那是頁巖氣干的”。盡管有政府提供的各種生產(chǎn)激勵，借貸擔保以及為因為監(jiān)管政策改變造成的損失進行賠償，核能還是敵不過天然氣。因為新供應源的出現(xiàn)，天然氣的價格大幅下降。在任何這兩種能源自由競爭的市場里，廉價的天然氣都徹底排除了興建新核電站的可能。根據(jù)瑞士銀行的分析，在美國天然氣相對核能的優(yōu)勢大致比歐洲要高一倍。

John Rowe, CEO of Exelon, an energy company that has ten nuclear power plants in its portfolio, says that companies like his no longer have any reason to build nuclear plants.All plans to build nuclear plants in parts of America where the electricity market has been deregulated are coming to naught.Some American plants will still be built, but only in the south-east, where regulators allow the cost of increasing a utility’s asset base to be passed on directly—indeed pre-emptively—to its captive customers.Thus electricity consumers in Georgia are already paying for two new AP1000s which in February got clearance from the NRC to complement the two reactors at Vogtle.In Sumner, South Carolina, two more AP1000s are under contract.Those four will probably be all the renaissance America sees for some time.愛克斯龍能源公司旗下目前有十座核電站。其首席執(zhí)行官約翰?羅伊認為像愛克斯龍這樣的公司已經(jīng)沒有什么理由繼續(xù)建造核電站了。在美國所有那些電力市場監(jiān)管已經(jīng)被解除的地方，建造核電站的計劃都無疾而終。美國還是有一些核電站正在建造之中，但是這僅發(fā)生在東南部，那里的電力監(jiān)管使得公用企業(yè)可以把增加資產(chǎn)基礎的成本直接（實際上是預先）轉(zhuǎn)移給那些無法切換公用供應商的顧客們。因此喬治亞州的電力用戶所付的電費中已經(jīng)包含了將要建造的兩座新AP1000的費用。這兩座反應堆將加入沃格特勒核電站已有的兩座反應堆行列。2月核管理委員會對該工程進行了批準。南卡羅來納州薩姆納市訂購了兩座AP1000。這四座很可能就是很長一段時間內(nèi)美國核能復興的全部成員了。

If the West could build new reactors as cheaply as China can, things would look different.That it cannot is in part due to labour costs.But the Chinese must have other advantages too.The levellised costs of modern Chinese coal-fired power stations are lower than the competition’s even when the power stations are not built in China.The same is true for cement works;Chinese companies operating outside China cannot build them as cheaply as they do at home, but they still easily beat the international competition.如果西方國家可以以和中國一樣的低成本建造反應堆，那么情況就會大不一樣。它們做不到的部份原因在于勞工成本。但中國公司一定也有其它優(yōu)勢。中國的現(xiàn)代燃煤電站即使在海外建造，其平準成本還是比競爭對手低。水泥工廠也是一樣的。在海外運作的中國公司建造的水泥工廠雖然成本比在國內(nèi)建造的要高，但還是比國際競爭對手要便宜得多。

Further evidence that a different industrial approach can cut costs comes from South Korea.Like Japan, the country has little by way of indigenous energy supplies, and it too decided on nuclear power to solve that problem and bring new technological skills to its industrial base.It gets some 30% of its electricity from nuclear plants, much the same as Japan did before Fukushima, and more than any large economy other than France.In 2010 KEPCO, the South Korean power company, sold its reactors overseas for the first time, beating the French to a contract in the United Arab Emirates;at home its overnight costs for such generation II reactors are calculated at just over $1,500/kW.使用不同的工業(yè)方法可以減少成本的進一步證據(jù)來自韓國。和日本一樣，韓國幾乎沒有本土能源，它也決定要依靠核能來解決這個問題，同時在其工業(yè)基礎內(nèi)引入新的技術(shù)技能。韓國30%的電力來自于核電站。這個比例和福島事件之前的日本相仿，比除了法國外任何其它大型經(jīng)濟體都要高。2010年韓國電力公司第一次將其反應堆遠銷海外，在爭奪阿聯(lián)酋的一份合同時擊敗了法國同行。在國內(nèi)韓國電力公司這類第二代反應堆的隔夜成本據(jù)計算大約只有每千瓦1500美元出頭一點。

The true costs in South Korean business can be hard to make out.It would not be at all surprising if, working abroad for the first time and having been keenly competitive in its bidding, KEPCO failed to deliver the UAE reactors on budget.And given that nuclear prices have gone up everywhere else, it is fair to expect that they will do so to some extent in Asia, too.But if China and South Korea can build reactors abroad at prices not much higher than those at home, nuclear may see its fortunes tick up elsewhere, argues David Victor, of the University of California.Both Westinghouse and EDF have plans for new reactors in the export market that would be designed and sold in collaboration with Chinese partners.Russia is keen to export PWRs too, but its costs are not clear.韓國企業(yè)真正投入的成本是很難計算的。第一次在海外運作，加上韓國電力在競標時把價格壓得很低，它如果最終無法按預算完成這些阿聯(lián)酋反應堆并不會是一件很讓人驚訝的事?？紤]到核電站造價在全世界其它各地都已上升，認為它在亞洲也會有一定程度的上升是很合乎情理的。但是加州大學的大衛(wèi)?維克多認為如果中國和韓國在海外建造反應堆的成本比國內(nèi)高不了太多，那么也許核能會在其它地方獲得青睞。西屋電氣和法國電力都有計劃和中國合作方一起設計銷售新反應堆以供出口。俄羅斯也很熱衷于出口PWR，但是其成本目前還不是很清楚。

Inviting the Chinese to come in and build a nuclear plant is an unlikely step for a Western government(though the South Koreans are bidding on a Finnish contract).Some developing countries, though, may be interested.This is a matter of concern for backers of the American nuclear industry with an eye to national security issues, such as Pete Domenici, a former senator.If America is not engaged in the market, how can it use its influence to deter proliferation? 西方政府不太可能邀請中國公司來自己國家建造核電站（雖然韓國公司目前在競標一座芬蘭核電站）。但是一些發(fā)展中國家可能會有興趣。對于支持美國核能行業(yè)，同時又關心國家安全問題的人，像是前參議員彼德?多梅尼西來說，這是個很大的問題。如果美國對核能市場都漠不關心，那么美國要怎么用自己的影響力來阻止核擴散呢？

And it will indeed have less scope for such influence.But even at Chinese prices, nuclear energy is expensive compared with coal, and if other countries gain easier access to gas, as America did, that will reduce demand too.Vietnam is enthusiastic about nuclear reactors;other Asian countries, especially those in tectonically active places—such as the Philippines and Indonesia—may be less keen than they were before the great tsunami.South Africa is talking of buying nuclear reactors.India has big plans on paper, but a law that makes the designers(rather than the operators)of power stations liable in case of accidents gets in the way(and buying Chinese reactors might be anathema anyway).There is interest in the Middle East, but as Charles Ebinger of the Brookings Institution, a think-tank, points out, the countries talking about buying nuclear power in response to runaway electricity demand might do better to curb their handsome consumer subsidies.They might also do well to invest in alternative energy.The sun’s nuclear reactor has been going for 4.5 billion years, and extracting power from it is getting cheaper every year.美國阻止核擴散的影響力范圍將來還會更窄。但是即使以中國的造價來看，核能和煤比起來還是過于昂貴。如果其它國家也像美國那樣獲得更輕松的天然氣來源，這也會降低對核能的需求。越南很熱衷于核反應堆。其它的亞洲國家，尤其是那些位于板塊活動地區(qū)的國家，像是菲律賓和印尼對核反應堆的熱衷可能已不如大海嘯之前了。南非正在談論要購買新的核反應堆。印度也有一些大型的紙上計劃，但是印度有一條法律要求萬一事故發(fā)生，核電站的設計方（而不是運作方）需要負責，這可能阻礙了核電的發(fā)展。另外印度可能本來就對向中國購買核反應堆非常反感。中東對核電很感興趣，但是智囊機構(gòu)布魯金斯學院的查爾斯?俄賓格指出：對于那些在談論購買核能以應付大幅飆升的用電需求的國家來說，減少它們高昂的消費者補貼也許是更好的辦法。投資替代能源也可能是不錯的作法。太陽內(nèi)部的核反應堆已經(jīng)運作了45億年了，而且隨著時間過去從它那兒提取能量正在變得越來越便宜。

譯者注

Bandwagon effect漢密爾頓說，對中國購物者進行教育，告訴他們交易背后的血腥，能對保護野生動物起到積極作用。目前在中國正有這樣一場公益廣告戰(zhàn)役已經(jīng)打響，他們由一些中國名人來發(fā)起號召，比如籃球明星姚明，斯諾克運動員丁俊暉，請求人們不要購買瀕臨滅絕的動物的產(chǎn)品。他們說，“沒有買賣，就沒有殺戮?！?/p>

http://ecocn.org/thread-64947-1-1.html 譯者：songz2000

[2012.03.10]Creation story 創(chuàng)造的故事 The history of computing 計算機史

Creation story 創(chuàng)造的故事

Computing’s long and twisted past 計算機漫長而又曲折的過去 Mar 10th 2012 | from the print edition

Turing’s Cathedral: The Origins of the Digital Universe.By George Dyson.Pantheon;401 pages;$29.95.Allen Lane;￡25.Buy from Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk 《圖靈 [注]大教堂：數(shù)字世界的起源》。喬治?戴森（George Dyson）著。美國萬神廟出版社，售價29.95美元；英國阿倫?雷恩出版社，售價25英鎊。Amazon.com與Amazon.co.uk網(wǎng)上有售。

“I AM thinking about something much more important than bombs,” John von Neumann remarked in 1946.“I am thinking about computers.” The Hungarian-born mathematical genius knew that weapons and computers were closely intertwined.During the second world war computers had been built to crack codes(Colossus, in Britain)and calculate artillery firing tables(ENIAC, in America).But these were dedicated machines built to perform specific tasks.“我正在考慮一些遠比炸彈重要的東西，”約翰?馮?諾依曼1946年這樣說，“我正在考慮計算機。”這位生于匈牙利的數(shù)學天才知道，武器與計算機緊密相關。人們在二戰(zhàn)期間建造了計算機來破譯密碼（如英國的Colossus計算機）與計算炮隊火力表（如美國的ENIAC計算機）。但這些是為專項任務建造的專用計算機。

Von Neumann dreamed of building a far more flexible and powerful general-purpose computer, the theoretical capabilities of which had been determined in the 1930s by Alan Turing, a British mathematician.As the cold war began, along came the perfect opportunity: the hydrogen bomb, whose construction would require detailed mathematical modelling.Von Neumann did a deal with his American military paymasters.They got their bomb, and the scientists got their computer, a key ancestor of all modern machines.The subsequent explosion of computing changed the world.馮?諾依曼幻想著制造一臺靈活性與功能都要強大得多的通用計算機。這種計算機的理論性能是由英國數(shù)學家阿倫?圖靈在20世紀30年代確定的。冷戰(zhàn)的開始帶來了一個絕好的機會：制造氫彈需要建立詳盡的數(shù)學模型。馮?諾依曼與美國軍需主管達成了一項協(xié)議。最后，軍方得到了炸彈，而科學家們得到計算機——所有現(xiàn)代計算機的關鍵始祖。計算能力隨后的爆炸性發(fā)展改變了整個世界。

As George Dyson explains in “Turing’s Cathedral”, von Neumann was just as excited by the other possibilities opened up by computers, from artificial life to weather forecasting.But the hydrogen-bomb project offered him the freedom and the money to build a new type of computer: a “stored-program” machine that could be reconfigured quickly to perform different tasks by changing its software, rather than rewiring its hardware.

第四篇：磚廠月經(jīng)營報告

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您好，現(xiàn)將磚廠2005年11月份經(jīng)營情況匯報如下:

一、產(chǎn)量

11月份我們生產(chǎn)標準磚，因維修保養(yǎng)設備、耗用1天，生產(chǎn)天數(shù)為29天，共生產(chǎn)標準磚224萬塊，磚廠月經(jīng)營報告。

1-11月份累計生產(chǎn)標準磚1981.5萬塊，步道磚5萬塊，路邊石4179塊,24空心磚1.3萬塊。

二、銷售

11月實現(xiàn)銷售收入52.4萬元，較上月有較大幅度的上升,，11月銷售標準磚213萬塊，對內(nèi)銷售205萬塊（呂格莊豬廠：150.2萬塊）對外銷售8萬塊；實現(xiàn)銷售收入51.8萬元，其中對內(nèi)實現(xiàn)收入50.2萬元，對外實現(xiàn)收入1.6萬元。主要原因是呂格莊豬廠的開工，大量的需求標準磚。另外銷售步道磚2100塊，路邊石388塊。

1－11月銷售標準磚1508.7萬塊，實現(xiàn)銷售收入343.5萬元，其中對內(nèi)實現(xiàn)收入167.4萬元，對外實現(xiàn)收入176.1萬元。1-11月份累計銷售24cm空心磚6564塊，19cm空心磚8432塊，步道磚5.7萬塊，路邊石6540塊。

三、成本及盈利

1、本月單位生產(chǎn)成本0.14元/塊，較上月降低0.01元/塊，主要是本月產(chǎn)量較上月有所上升，單位成本（含管理費用）0.18元/塊，比上月上升0.01元/塊，主要是本月運費比上月有所上升。

2、本月實現(xiàn)利潤：8.2萬元，現(xiàn)有庫存標準磚535萬塊，正常銷售出去，預計利潤6.5萬元。

四、日常管理

1、安全情況：安全是工作的重點，11月16日學習了萊陽市建筑業(yè)管理處文件，要求安檢部門嚴格按照文件規(guī)定做好冬季安全生產(chǎn)的注意事項。安全檢查小組認真組織檢查，自查自糾工作中存在的問題，全面的對廠內(nèi)安全生產(chǎn)情況進行檢查，尤其針對冬季生產(chǎn)應注意的防凍、防滑工作及安全使用電氣設備是冬季生產(chǎn)應注意的“四防”問題，告誡廣大職工無論在生活上還是在工作中，都要時時把安全工作放在首位，在保證人身、設備安全的情況下順利開展工作。對冬季安全用電問題做為重點進行了強調(diào)，要求每位住宿舍的員工必須嚴格遵守安全用電管理規(guī)定，電熱毯私拉亂接，折疊，及無人時插電熱毯的現(xiàn)象絕不不允許出現(xiàn)，對不能落實好安全用電管理規(guī)定的宿舍舍長進行嚴厲處分。進入冬季摩托車的駕乘轉(zhuǎn)變成安全的點，冬季經(jīng)常出現(xiàn)風雪天氣，這需要對行車駕駛者作出更嚴格的要求，所以我們要求駕車員工必須配帶防護措施，限速行車，并持有效證件駕車，對無證人員要嚴格監(jiān)督，絕對不允許駕車上路，發(fā)現(xiàn)一次罰款50元，工作匯報《磚廠月經(jīng)營報告》。安全檢查小組成員宋和宏、李凱對車間生產(chǎn)情況進行了檢查，檢查中發(fā)現(xiàn)西車間安全標志不能按照規(guī)定懸掛，發(fā)現(xiàn)問題后立即組織當班班組長梁啟偉進行了整改，并對其進行了嚴厲的批評及教育。經(jīng)過長期的對員工進行安全宣傳教育，增強了他們的安全意識，取得了可喜的成果。

2、設備情況：對設備的保養(yǎng)情況和安全情況每個星期進行一次大檢查，加強機械設備的維護，努力降低設備的折舊。每月10、20、30號由車間主任帶頭，帶領車間操作人員對設備的注油點，操作規(guī)程等方面進行培訓，并進行現(xiàn)場演練，月底統(tǒng)一對本月的學習內(nèi)容進行理論考核和實際操作，實行末尾淘汰制。對操作不符合要求的人員不得操作該機械，轉(zhuǎn)入候補人員，工資下調(diào)一級，由替補頂替，替補人員的工資上調(diào)一級。

3、管理軟件建設：建立健全了辦公用品費用控制實施意見、物資驗收入庫及物資領用發(fā)放、采取各種措施充分調(diào)動各班組、各負責人加強成本管理的積極性。

4、學習情況：11月28日-30日組織全體員工學習了公民安全知識普及讀本中第八部分燃氣安全，第一、二、三、四章進行了學習。并強調(diào)了家庭用氣及火爐的安全注意事項，嚴防煤氣中毒事件。由于輪碾機本身的質(zhì)量問題導致的輪碾機故障，雖不是人為造成，但我們還是要加強職工操作技能，杜絕因操作不當造成的故障，耽誤車間生產(chǎn)。12月1日，我們就組織了兩個班的攪拌機工學習了攪拌機各部件的結(jié)構(gòu)性能及特點，各處注油點及加注油的類型及數(shù)量，攪拌機的操作注意事項等。

五、節(jié)能降耗，節(jié)約挖潛

由于磚廠的地面不是硬化地面，每當下雨，地面就變得比較松軟，運輸車輛的行走給地面留下道道車痕，碼磚的場地變得極不平整，這就需要經(jīng)常用裝載機修整場地，經(jīng)過幾次的修整，發(fā)現(xiàn)裝載機的鏟斗磨損比較嚴重，于是我們把廢舊輪胎割斷，套在鏟斗的下沿，結(jié)果顯示，場地不但變得更加平整，而且又不磨損機械。

嚴格控制河沙的質(zhì)量，對于含石子較多的沙堅決不收，因含石子較多的河沙平均每日要多消耗2.5方沙，按照每方14.5元計算，每天我們節(jié)約36.3元，一個月節(jié)省1000余元。

在不影響工作的情況下，對照明燈的開燈時間實行專人管制，嚴格控制各種機械的開機時間，減少無用工的付出，在11月份產(chǎn)量比10月份產(chǎn)量增加18萬塊標準磚的情況下，我們比上月節(jié)省656度電，安每度電0.64元計算，本月節(jié)約用電419元。

11月份節(jié)約用電656千瓦時，節(jié)約河沙75方，合計減少支出1419元。

六、下月計劃

1、加強衛(wèi)生的檢查力度，搞好環(huán)境衛(wèi)生，進行文明建設。

2、加強安全宣傳，增強安全意識，提高產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量。

3、實行創(chuàng)新精神，節(jié)約挖潛，控制各項支出，降低生產(chǎn)成本。

第五篇：育林所經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展調(diào)查

育林所經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展調(diào)查

育林經(jīng)營所始建于1983年，全所施業(yè)區(qū)面積13032公頃，轄區(qū)居民97戶301人。在冊職工195人，在崗職工173人。隨著林區(qū)兩危的到來，這個經(jīng)營所可采資源最先走向枯竭，經(jīng)濟向谷底直線下滑，各種社會矛盾突顯，歷史包袱沉重，不穩(wěn)定因素劇增，一度成為全區(qū)典型的小老窮經(jīng)營所。為了擺脫困境，求

生存，經(jīng)營所在發(fā)展多種經(jīng)營項目上也做出了一些努力，他們辦過蟬廠、種植過木耳、養(yǎng)殖過狗，前后一共發(fā)展過19個項目，但都沒有形成規(guī)模，大多夭折。

地理偏僻，土地少、信息閉塞、缺少技能，首先導致職工群眾發(fā)展新項目不敢邁步。這個經(jīng)營所位于區(qū)置西部，沒有毗鄰的林場所，職工生活在一個閉塞的環(huán)境中，與外界聯(lián)系的少，思想認識落后，素質(zhì)較低。這個所施業(yè)區(qū)內(nèi)雖有土地20多公頃，但僅有50畝土地屬于這個經(jīng)營所，由于沒建所前，金峰和豐北的一些農(nóng)民已經(jīng)在這里開墾經(jīng)營土地延續(xù)至今。此外，這里屬淺山區(qū)，無霜期80天，只能種一些普通大田，連經(jīng)濟效益較高的黃豆在這里都不能豐收。其次，缺乏資金，缺少能人困撓職工群眾發(fā)展自營經(jīng)濟。由于體制問題，以前大部分的項目都是經(jīng)營所搞的，許多項目始終沒發(fā)展起來。

這個經(jīng)營所施業(yè)區(qū)面積雖然相對其它林場所較大，但資源匱乏，所能生產(chǎn)的全部是小桿小料，已經(jīng)兩年沒有主伐生產(chǎn)任務，營林生產(chǎn)也只是幾個月，全年生產(chǎn)任務量只相當于其它林場所一個段隊的生產(chǎn)任務量。職工長年沒活，原來只是季節(jié)性采山有一點收入，職工家庭經(jīng)濟發(fā)展也是小打小鬧，豐麗林場袋裝木耳發(fā)展到400萬袋時，這個經(jīng)營所只有4萬多袋。職工勉強維持溫飽，林場所接續(xù)產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展、場容場貌、職工年平均收入等均排在全區(qū)11個林場所的倒數(shù)幾位。

面對著嚴峻的生存壓力和全區(qū)各林場所競相發(fā)展的緊迫形勢，幾屆領導班子都做出不懈努力，特別是新一屆黨政領導一班人，新一屆班子找出了困撓這個地方發(fā)展經(jīng)濟的癥結(jié)，實事求是地確立了符合育林所實際的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展思路，依托自身優(yōu)勢，以建設生態(tài)經(jīng)營所為主攻方向，以做強百姓經(jīng)濟，提高職工群眾收入為核心目標，以加強企業(yè)管理為重點，把工作的手段和方式由管理型向服務型轉(zhuǎn)變。帶領全所職工在困境中抉擇，積極創(chuàng)造了自身發(fā)展的曙光，邁出了緩危解困的堅實一步，全所經(jīng)濟得到快速發(fā)展，所容所貌大為改觀，經(jīng)營所上下充滿活力，初步形成了民富所興的良好態(tài)勢。

一、說破嘴皮不如做出樣子

場所一班人改說功為做功。新一屆黨政班子認識到率先發(fā)展多種經(jīng)營，他們知道老百姓這幾年發(fā)展家庭經(jīng)濟賠了不少，大多數(shù)人對于發(fā)展多種經(jīng)營已經(jīng)有為難情緒，不敢輕意的把僅有的維持生活周轉(zhuǎn)金再投入到項目上。林木資源已枯竭，靠什么振興場所經(jīng)濟？他們在“摸石過河”的過程中走在了群眾前面，首先是領著群眾干。在不與民爭利的前提下，班子成員率先發(fā)展多種經(jīng)營，本著“喊千遍萬遍，不如親自干一件”的原則，用行動帶動群眾，用效果引導群眾。為了尋找適合當?shù)貙嶋H發(fā)展而且有利于推廣普及的項目，班子成員5人絞盡腦汁，每人都發(fā)展起了自己的項目，而且不重復。

原書記羅宇平（于2004年12月被區(qū)委任命為豐林林場書記）選準了種植五味子，他把原來班子集體培植的20萬株五味子苗全部買下來繼續(xù)培育，請來林科院專家進行技術(shù)指導后，又從帶嶺引進株速生豐產(chǎn)楊樹種，種植在10公頃林間空地上，準備五味子成苗后移植到楊樹冠下，這樣既有利于五味子生長，又能進行植樹造林，雖然五味子要5年才見效益，但它的利潤卻十分可觀，他的20萬株五味子5年后預計產(chǎn)五味子10萬公斤，收入可達60萬元，除去5年的費用元，純收入。

所長賈立軍帶頭響應區(qū)委、區(qū)政府大力發(fā)展鹿經(jīng)濟的號召，從事養(yǎng)鹿。決定養(yǎng)鹿后，他并沒有盲目購進鹿，他覺得這是一個新項目，對技術(shù)、信息、市場都不了解，如果自己沒起好這個帶頭作用，職工群眾對這個新興的項目更沒有信心。于是他把自己內(nèi)弟送到雙陽一養(yǎng)鹿戶無償打工，學技術(shù)近一年，他承擔了費用近3000元，然后在雙陽購進品質(zhì)優(yōu)良梅花鹿28頭，經(jīng)過年的飼養(yǎng)繁殖到40頭，今年賣出31頭，收入30萬元，除去人工和本錢凈賺元。下一步他還將購入頭馬鹿，與梅花鹿進行雜交，擴大生產(chǎn)規(guī)模，提高鹿群質(zhì)量。

工會主席劉艷君“看中”的是養(yǎng)野豬。一次去雙豐，他經(jīng)朋友介紹，了解到飼養(yǎng)野豬是一個好項目，野豬肉口感細膩，市場暢銷，1斤肉可達15元，利潤可觀，而且容易飼養(yǎng)，1年出欄，繁殖力強。于是多次到雙豐養(yǎng)野豬大王高立平養(yǎng)殖場進行考察學習后，購進4頭種豬，由于育林所山上野豬較多，常常下山禍害莊稼，因此他決定在育林所山上進行半家化馴養(yǎng)野豬，便于到繁育期時，種豬與山上散生的野豬繁殖2代，這樣既能提高野豬的品質(zhì)又能保護莊稼。今年只是試養(yǎng)階段，明年他準備與雙豐高立平聯(lián)營，擴大規(guī)模，發(fā)展野豬100頭。

班子其他兩名成員負責多種經(jīng)

營工作的副所長高安慶帶頭發(fā)展袋裝木耳，今年種植2萬袋，純收入1萬元。生產(chǎn)副所長王愛軍帶領一個段隊集體種植滑子蘑2萬袋，收入也比較可觀。

班子成員在帶頭發(fā)展起家庭經(jīng)濟的同時每個人還帶動起百姓發(fā)展家庭經(jīng)濟，賈所長把自己飼養(yǎng)品質(zhì)優(yōu)良的九頭鹿以低價賣給自己幫扶的養(yǎng)鹿戶。僅班子成員發(fā)展經(jīng)濟每年安置季節(jié)性勞動力近30人。通過班子的示

范引導，現(xiàn)已帶動起全所職工發(fā)展家庭經(jīng)濟的熱情。

其次，幫助群眾辦。以思想解放為先導，提供政策扶持、技術(shù)指導、信息服務。為了幫助職工群眾把家庭特色經(jīng)濟做大做強，所領導班子傾注了全部的力量，通過召開班子會、座談會，與每個職工面對面、心貼心交流溝通，介紹外地鮮活經(jīng)驗等，首先從職工思想大解放入手，并提出“你無項目我引導，你無資金我聯(lián)系，你無技術(shù)我服務，你無市場我?guī)椭?。一是在政策上扶持，幫助擔保小額貸款，解決小材小料，提供廠房等。這個所發(fā)展黑木耳比其它單位慢，主要原因是職工群眾積累少，沒有更多的資金投入發(fā)展，加之對貸款有顧慮，怕到期還不上，所里了解到這一情況馬上與信用社聯(lián)系，采取場方認定，職工5戶聯(lián)保方式發(fā)放了小額貸款，共計貸款17萬元，職工有了資金，發(fā)展黑木耳的積極性十分高漲，種植戶比去年多了32戶41.9萬袋。又與資源等相關部門協(xié)調(diào)，每戶解決袋裝木耳搭架子用小桿50根，每根僅收5角錢。還將場所閑置的廠房免費或低價提供給職工群眾，用于從事多種經(jīng)營。二是在技術(shù)上指導，堅持科技為先，以質(zhì)量為根本。班子成員帶頭學習技術(shù)，引導職工人被動灌輸變?yōu)橹鲃幼稍?。多次請來農(nóng)科院專家入戶指導，還專門長期聘請了一名懂種植、養(yǎng)殖技術(shù)的技術(shù)員，解決職工日常遇到的技術(shù)難題。三是提供信息服務，通過網(wǎng)絡、媒體、走出去考察學習，進一步豐富拓寬了職工群眾的視野，了解了更多的致富信息，使其找到更適合發(fā)展的項目。為了尋找職工群眾增收新出路，經(jīng)過班子考察研究，從大連引進了滑子蘑栽培項目，由于滑子蘑栽培技術(shù)與袋裝木耳相似，但它屬于低溫菌種，不用高溫發(fā)酵，易儲存，成本也比袋裝木耳低，每噸售價要比袋裝木耳高元，是一個林區(qū)發(fā)展前景廣闊的項目。開始上滑子蘑項目是采取班子成員與職工合股的形式，但由于技術(shù)原因，滑子蘑的產(chǎn)量和品質(zhì)始終上不去，致使賠了一些錢，但班子成員對此沒有放棄，認準了這是一個具有發(fā)展?jié)摿Φ捻椖?，多次派副所長高安慶到大連學習滑子蘑栽培技術(shù)，掌握外地銷售情況。經(jīng)過近三年的摸索實踐，育林所的滑子蘑栽培已初見成效。種植大戶李培軍現(xiàn)已每年發(fā)展達3萬袋，年收入1萬余元。

幾分耕耘幾分收獲，領導干部率先垂范作用在育林所得到了驗證，經(jīng)過近兩年的實踐，這里的多種經(jīng)營經(jīng)濟發(fā)展已是如火如荼。目前，育林所不僅每戶都有經(jīng)營項目，人人有事做，而且一家有2、3個經(jīng)營項目已是普遍。袋裝木耳發(fā)展到72戶71.9萬袋，滑子蘑8戶6萬袋。養(yǎng)牛95頭，養(yǎng)羊110只，養(yǎng)鹿頭，養(yǎng)雞4000只。發(fā)展民有林14戶。2004年全所各項生產(chǎn)總值達元，純收入元，人均收入由2003年的2010元躍升到目前的元，富有特色的育林所經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)成為金山屯場所經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的一個新亮點。

二、開源節(jié)流賦予新內(nèi)涵

面對經(jīng)濟危困和林木資源枯竭的雙重壓力，育林所黨政一班人不等不靠、審時度勢，以先進的經(jīng)營理念武裝自己的頭腦，發(fā)揮自身優(yōu)勢，采取扎實有效的措施，抓改革、強管理，經(jīng)營資源借外力。

1、經(jīng)營資源生財

1993年4月初，退休干部，原市營林局局長佟枝春看準育林所，在其施業(yè)區(qū)開始試辦家庭林場，承包育林所施業(yè)區(qū)低價林、宜林荒山荒地4個林班，總面積2400公頃。11年來，在林業(yè)局和育林所的幫助下，建房、倉庫、機庫、井房、畜舍500平方米，累計造林161.7公頃。

這里民有林發(fā)展已初具規(guī)模的同時，原育林所職工趙寶峰的紅松架接樹苗也在大面積栽植，形成了以培植紅松果為主的民有林示范基地。紅松果架接樹果是采用科技手段對小興安嶺紅松果實的一種架接，果實成熟比正常紅松早30—40年，是我們林區(qū)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的一個好項目，他的做法已被《黑龍江日報》中央電視4臺報道，民有林面積已達265.9公頃。另外他還將管護區(qū)內(nèi)修建的旅游度假區(qū)，發(fā)展旅游業(yè)。

興辦家庭林場，發(fā)展民有林，是森林經(jīng)營體制上的突破和創(chuàng)新，在增強經(jīng)營所經(jīng)濟實力，促進家庭經(jīng)濟發(fā)展，拓寬就業(yè)門路的同時，加快了森林的保護和培育步伐。以制度的形式將責任人對林間林緣空地的使用權(quán)加以確定，使職工家庭經(jīng)濟從房前屋后的小天地向森林管護的大舞臺，激發(fā)調(diào)動了責任人管護森林和發(fā)展責任區(qū)經(jīng)濟的內(nèi)在動力，為綠起來和富起來奠定了堅實群眾基礎。

此外，育林所還結(jié)合自身特點，發(fā)揮山梨資源優(yōu)勢，引來金潤果酒有限公司在育林所建立起了30公頃的原料基地，經(jīng)過一年人工管護和果樹栽培，增加了山梨數(shù)量。在建立山梨基地的同時，還將建起以旅游為主的梨花觀賞園，機關干部義務鋪墊通往梨樹溝沙石路200多延長米，并修建梨樹溝停車場一處。下一步將在這里籌建起五味子、刺五加基地，并使之逐漸形成規(guī)模。

僅招商引資這一項，拓寬了就業(yè)門路，安置勞動力50人，每年給所里創(chuàng)造效益元。

2、強化管理“節(jié)”財。為了求得經(jīng)營所發(fā)展振興，所領導牢固樹立了過緊日子的思想，從小處算，從細處省，堅持做到少花錢多辦事，不花錢也辦事。千方百計向管理要效益。

一是減人壓費。為了節(jié)省開支，裁減了機關管理人員1名，段隊管理人員1名，后勤服務人員2名，只留一名更夫，白天還兼職負責清理衛(wèi)生，晚上由兩名機關干部值班。食堂也只在春秋兩季防火期間開伙，其他時間一律?；?，食堂沒有廚師和服務員用機關四名女干部輪流做飯，每頓飯的標準總計不能超過20元。通過嚴格控制非生產(chǎn)人員支出，使非生產(chǎn)性支出每年減少7000多元。

二是收攤減費。今年進行了鍋爐改造，換上了新式節(jié)能鍋爐，提高了煤的轉(zhuǎn)熱量，取暖面積由原來的1600多平方米減少到現(xiàn)在的800平方米，每年節(jié)省原煤80噸，節(jié)約用電度，節(jié)支元。強化了招待費管理，所黨政班子成員基本上不到飯店就餐，對于必須招待的去地區(qū)買菜到食堂自己做，每年節(jié)省招待費元。嚴格控制不必要的支出，嚴格審核差旅費，對情況不符的堅決不予簽字。嚴格控制辦公費的使用，年初制定計劃，由所長審核把關，確保了每一筆錢都用在了刀刃上。

三是封車節(jié)支。這個所僅有的一臺舊吉普車，已經(jīng)運行9年多，各部件已經(jīng)破損，而且費油，為了節(jié)約，進行了封車，班子成員全部騎摩托車上下班，對原小車司機進行了分流轉(zhuǎn)崗，每年可節(jié)約小車汽油費、養(yǎng)路費、機械維修費、小車司機工資約1萬元。

三、把實事做在群眾心坎上

這個所的黨政領導班子之所以能夠受到職工群眾的擁護，就是因為他們能夠以解決百姓困難為己任，以百姓滿意為準則，以加快發(fā)展全所經(jīng)濟奔小康為出發(fā)點和落腳點。心中勤想百姓難，雙腿勤走百姓門，手頭勤辦百姓事，是他們一心為百姓辦實事的真實寫照。

一是改善環(huán)境，美化家園干在前。為了改善林場所環(huán)境，開展了一次“清衛(wèi)生、搞綠化、凈庭院、美家園”活動，首先對居民區(qū)街道進行了重新規(guī)劃，所領導帶頭，全民義務勞動，共清出垃圾104車，新挖排水溝2000延長米，鋪墊居民區(qū)街道用沙子131車，新修主道涵洞5個，巷道涵洞22個，拆除杖子800多延長米，清出拌子40多榴，新栽綠化樹5900多棵。為了使職工群眾有一個休閑娛樂場所，本著少花錢多辦事的原則，他們把場里會一點手藝的人專門送到伊春水上公園進行學習后，只花了元，自行修建起了一處400平方米造型別致的燈光文化廣場。

二是添磚加瓦，扶貧解困。黨政班子經(jīng)過親自入戶走訪，分類排查，與困難戶結(jié)成一幫一扶貧對子。職工孩子沒錢上學，由班子帶頭捐款元。職工群眾只要有事，班子必到。職工婚喪嫁娶，把食堂免費提供。育林所原來只有一口井在場部，冬季經(jīng)常凍，要排隊挑水，為此場子在水房安裝了暖氣，保證長年供水。同時，找來技術(shù)人員，發(fā)動3至5戶居民合打一口井，并裝上了水表，解決吃水難問題。由個人承包出資1.5萬元，使有線電視頻道由2個增加到了10個。

三是密切聯(lián)系，凝聚人心。育林所黨政班子無論做什么，心里首先想到的就是群眾，他們把群眾的利益放在了高于一切的位置，開始進行街道規(guī)劃時，有許多群眾不理解，班子成員就先從釘子戶做工作，用自己的行動證明給職工群眾看，規(guī)劃清理街道是為了讓群眾有一個好的舒心的生活環(huán)境。在班子言行帶動下，每戶義務出工一人，共出工2600多人次，沒有發(fā)生一分錢的工時費。勞動結(jié)束后，班子成員為了凝聚人心，鼓勵職工群眾，買了40本影集，開了一次表彰大會，對于在勞動中表現(xiàn)突出給予獎勵。平日所里還組織一些喜聞樂見的文體活動，干部群眾一同參與，豐富了業(yè)余文化生活。

他們?yōu)槁毠と罕娮龅拿恳患峦瑫r也深深的印在了群眾的心中。今年秋整地期間，育林所的任務是1600畝，此時正趕上收山，采山一天收入要比秋整地干活工錢多得多，很難組織上勞動力。當群眾們知道了這件事后，他們說：“我們有困難的時候知道找場子，現(xiàn)在場子有難處的時候我們也應該全力以赴。”于是很快他們就組織起了精干勞力30多人，中午自己帶飯，只用了15天就高質(zhì)量的完成了任務。所長賈立軍也深受感動，每天都和這些人一起去公里的作業(yè)點勞動。最后一天，讓所有的機關人員都到山上去親自體驗生活，也看看這些職工群眾是怎么干的，使干群關系進一步密切，增強了戰(zhàn)勝困難的合力。

育林所在超常的壓力下，敢于突破一切發(fā)展的阻礙，使企業(yè)重新煥發(fā)了生機。事實再次證明，困難企業(yè)要生存，必須要有一個團結(jié)合作，敢打硬仗的領導班子；必須要有一套打破固有思維定勢，創(chuàng)新經(jīng)營的工作思路；必須要時刻堅持“以人為本”的理念，調(diào)動人民群眾的積極性和創(chuàng)造性。正是這些可貴的做法才能在困難面前所迸發(fā)出的巨大創(chuàng)造力，讓我們領悟了許多破解發(fā)展難題的真諦。目前，育林所正加足馬力，奔向經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的快車道。相信，育林所的明天充滿希望。