第一篇：大學(xué)生面對金融危機(jī)的英語演講稿

confronting the financial crisis ,what should we college students do ?

honourable judges ,ladies and gentlemen :

good morning!at the beginning of my speech , i’d like to make a brief introductoion about myself that i hope won’t bore you , my name is liu zijing ,who come from bozhou of anhui province ,i was admitted to huaibei coal industry teacher’s college in XX年,and major in chinese language and literature.my today’s speech is : confronting the financial crisis ,what should we college students do ?

when you walking along a street , an inevitable phenomenon you will find is that lots of shops or markets are selling their goods at a discount;when you visting a countryside ,an evident situation you will discover is that many workers are staying in their hometown.why ? that’s because the financial crisis that originated on wall street and swept the world has gone beyond the toy sector and bitten into the chinese economy.over the past six months,many labor-intensive factories have shut down ,leaving massive numbers of workers jobless.although our government have taken some effective measures to stimulate the need of employment , we also can’t deny the fact that the situation is still serious.according to expects , china’s gdp growth slowed to 9.9 percent down 2.3 percentage points from the same period lastyear and falling to single figures for the first time in five years.as a college students ,i can’t be more sensitive to the essential meanings behind thesenumbers ,basing on expects , the graduates in this year are more than 5 millions , to my surprise ,there are exceed 1 million can’t find position.so it seems very important for us college students to consider what should we do in the intensely competitive society , particularly during this special background---international financial crisis.from my own perspective ,we should do three things as follows :

in the first instance , we should turn an objective attitude towards the encironment and ourselves.although we college students used to be the “most-favored ”people in society ,we have received a higher education ,hance we are more intelligent and knowledgeable than our countparts who failed to attend college.society is developing in a very high pace and becoming more and more advanced , so we shoule know our own strengths and weaknesses and have the right attitude towards ourselves and the job vacancies ,in addition ,we should not attach too much importance to material aspects of the job.secondly ,we should have great ambition towards our future.ambitions are like the stars---we never reach them ,but like mariners ,we chart our course by them.no matter the successful merchant or official or scientist ,they have an idential personality---ambition.on the surfaceof the globe financial crisis , it brings the pessmisitic economic situations , but it still can’t prevent a person who have great ambition achieving his goals.just like george bernard shaw said :“people always blaming their circumstance , the people who get on in this world are the people who get up and look for the circumstance s they want ,and ,if they can’t find them ,make them.”

last but not the least, we should study to the best of our ability to acquire knowledge as much as possible.college is a place where we can enrich our knowledge and improve ourselves.as a college student , we should be these who have a strong sense of social responsibilities , up-to-date knowledge and comperhensive capabilities.but never idle away our precious time and make our college life perplexed and vacuous.only master extensive knowledge and lay a solid foundtion can we have a promising and bright future.my fellow friends ,please remember , “heaven never helps the man who will not act ” every man is the architect of his own fortune , no matter how wicked the environment is ,i do believe a brilliant and original person still can realize his value and make contribution to our society.thank you very much for your attention！!

第二篇：大學(xué)生面對金融危機(jī)的英語演講稿

confronting the financial crisis ,what should we college students do ?

honourable judges ,ladies and gentlemen :

good morning!at the beginning of my speech , i’d like to make a brief introductoion about myself that i hope won’t bore you , my name is liu zijing ,who come from bozhou of anhui province ,i was admitted to huaibei coal industry teacher’s college in XX年,and major in chinese language and literature.my today’s speech is : confronting the financial crisis ,what should we college students do ?

when you walking along a street , an inevitable phenomenon you will find is that lots of shops or markets are selling their goods at a discount;when you visting a countryside ,an evident situation you will discover is that many workers are staying in their hometown.why ? that’s because the financial crisis that originated on wall street and swept the world has gone beyond the toy sector and bitten into the chinese economy.over the past six months,many labor-intensive factories have shut down ,leaving massive numbers of workers jobless.although our government have taken some effective measures to stimulate the need of employment , we also can’t deny the fact that the situation is still serious.according to expects , china’s gdp growth slowed to 9.9 percent down 2.3 percentage points from the same period lastyear and falling to single figures for the first time in five years.as a college students ,i can’t be more sensitive to the essential meanings behind thesenumbers ,basing on expects , the graduates in this year are more than 5 millions , to my surprise ,there are exceed 1 million can’t find position.so it seems very important for us college students to consider what should we do in the intensely competitive society , particularly during this special background---international financial crisis.from my own perspective ,we should do three things as follows : in the first instance , we should turn an objective attitude towards the encironment and ourselves.although we college students used to be the “most-favored ”people in society ,we have received a higher education ,hance we are more intelligent and knowledgeable than our countparts who failed to attend college.society is developing in a very high pace and becoming more and more advanced , so we shoule know our own strengths and weaknesses and have the right attitude towards ourselves and the job vacancies ,in addition ,we should not attach too much importance to material aspects of the job.secondly ,we should have great ambition towards our future.ambitions are like the stars---we never reach them ,but like mariners ,we chart our course by them.no matter the successful merchant or official or scientist ,they have an idential personality---ambition.on the surfaceof the globe financial crisis , it brings the pessmisitic economic situations , but it still can’t prevent a person who have great ambition achieving his goals.just like george bernard shaw said :“people always blaming their circumstance , the people who get on in this world are the people who get up and look for the circumstance s they want ,and ,if they can’t find them ,make them.” last but not the least, we should study to the best of our ability to acquire knowledge as much as possible.college is a place where we can enrich our knowledge and improve ourselves.as a college student , we should be these who have a strong sense of social responsibilities , up-to-date knowledge and comperhensive capabilities.but never idle away our precious time and make our college life perplexed and vacuous.only master extensive knowledge and lay a solid foundtion can we have a promising and bright future.my fellow friends ,please remember , “heaven never helps the man who will not act ” every man is the architect of his own fortune , no matter how wicked the environment is ,i do believe a brilliant and original person still can realize his value and make contribution to our society.thank you very much for your attention！!

參考譯文！

面對金融危機(jī)，我們應(yīng)該怎么做大學(xué)生嗎？

可敬的法官，女士們，先生們：

早上好！在我剛的話，我想做一個簡短的introductoion關(guān)于自己,因此我希望不會給你，我的名字叫劉××自安徽亳州的，我被××師范學(xué)院，并在XX年年中國語言和文學(xué)。我今天的演講是：面對金融危機(jī),我們應(yīng)該怎么做大學(xué)生嗎？

當(dāng)你沿著街道，你會找到一個不可避免的現(xiàn)象是，許多商店出售他們的產(chǎn)品或市場的折扣；當(dāng)你探望一位住院的鄉(xiāng)村，呈現(xiàn)出明顯的情況下，你會發(fā)現(xiàn)，許多工人正呆在自己的家鄉(xiāng)。為什么？這是因為財務(wù)危機(jī)源自于華爾街和席卷世界已經(jīng)超過了玩具行業(yè)和咬到中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)。在過去的六個月里，許多勞動密集型的工廠關(guān)閉，留下大量的工人失業(yè)。盡管政府已經(jīng)采取了一些有效措施來促進(jìn)就業(yè)的需要，我們也不能否認(rèn)，但形勢仍然嚴(yán)峻。據(jù)預(yù)計，中國的gdp增幅降至9.9%下降2.3個百分點，從去年同期下降到一位數(shù)，五年來首次。

作為一名大學(xué)生，我不能更敏感的基本含義的基礎(chǔ)上，thesenumbers背后的畢業(yè)生預(yù)計，今年有超過5百萬，令我驚訝的是，有超過1萬人找不到的位置。如此看來對我們非常重要的大學(xué)生認(rèn)為我們應(yīng)該怎么做在競爭激烈的社會，尤其是在這個特殊的背景——-international金融危機(jī)。

從我的角度來看,我們應(yīng)做的三件事：

在這個例子中，我們應(yīng)該把客觀的態(tài)度encironment和我們自己。雖然我們大學(xué)生曾經(jīng)是“以人為本”most-favored在社會里，我們接受高等教育，我們更有智慧和高良知識比我們countparts那些沒有上過大學(xué)。社會的發(fā)展非常高的速度和變得越來越先進(jìn)，所以我們要知道自己的強(qiáng)項和弱點，并有正確的態(tài)度、自我和工作空缺，此外，我們不應(yīng)過于重視材料方面的工作。

其次,我們應(yīng)該對我們未來的遠(yuǎn)大抱負(fù)。野心就像天上的星星——我們永遠(yuǎn)夠不著它們，但是我們像水手一樣，用它們指引航程。無論成功的商人和官員和科學(xué)家，他們有一種idential個性——-ambition。在全球金融危機(jī)的數(shù)值，它所帶來的pessmisitic經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢，但它還是不能阻止一個人有很大的理想實現(xiàn)的目標(biāo)。就像喬治·蕭伯納說：“人們總是指責(zé)他們的情況下，在這個世界上取得成功的人，都努力去尋找他們想要的環(huán)境史，如果找不到時，他們就自己創(chuàng)造機(jī)會?！?/p>

最后但并非最不重要的一點，我們必須學(xué)習(xí)去盡我們最大的能力去獲得知識當(dāng)做很多當(dāng)做可能的。大學(xué)是一個地方，我們可以豐富我們的知識,提高自己的水平作為大學(xué)生，我們應(yīng)當(dāng)那些有強(qiáng)烈的社會責(zé)任感的最新的知識和能力，但從不不渝消磨我們寶貴的時間，讓我們的大學(xué)生活的困惑和空洞。只有掌握廣博的知識和打下堅實的foundtion我們可以有一個充滿希望和光明的前途。

各位朋友，請記?。骸疤焐嫌肋h(yuǎn)不會幫助的人，必不每個人都是他自己命運的建筑師，無論多么邪惡的環(huán)境，我相信一個才華橫溢的人還可實現(xiàn),原來他的價值，為社會做出更大的貢獻(xiàn)?！?/p>

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第三篇：大學(xué)生英語演講稿：如何面對壓力

good evening , ladies and gentlemen.i am joy and glad to give you a speech about stress , yes , just the topic you see on the screen.psychologist tell us that stress is a state of worry caused by the problem of living , such as too much work or study , heavy responsibilities , and quickened pace of life.statistics show that stress comes from every detail in our life.financial problems , poor health , being laid off may be the stress that most adults now suffering.as students in the university , we are also under our special stress.while study , having to take various tests and submit a project against a deadline may put a great pressure on us.and the things make us felt stressed may be our parents’s greater expectations on us than we could reach.later , when we are likely to graduate , some other problems will also annoy us.i think we will worry a lot about our ability to compete in the job market and how we can best use what we’ve learned at college in our future job.the chief problem we should face to is our atitude towards stress.people usually say they can not live in the sun except they escape from stress.it’s unwelcome!yes , however , very necessary.just image a world where stress does not exist and people lead their life in a very comfortable way.but is this kind of living condition as perfect as we hope ? without stress , they may feel very satisfied with the current life but lack of power to discover new things.too much satisfaction result in nothing except a countermarch of the society.no stress , no development.so a certain amount of stress is good.it can stimulate us and increase our level of alertness.and our answer to stress is another vital problem.how to do with ourselves when stress suddenly break into our life ? to wave the white flag and admit our unability , to give up to our ideality , or worstly , just to suicide as to put an end to everything … of cause not.the principle is to tackle with stress gentlely and harmoniously.we should try our best to release ourselves.such as to do some exercise , to linsen to traditional chinese music or classical music to ease our minds and to learn to view these changes of life as challenges.it’s no use crying over spilt milk.only to accept what has happened can solve the problem.ok , i think i was under large stress 3 minutes before , but now i am here and have finished my speech.here is the last thing i want to add to my topic ,face to it and overcome it ,stress is also a piece of cake.that is all.thank you very much!

第四篇：大學(xué)生英語演講稿：如何面對壓力

Ladies and gentlemen ,Good evening ,I am joy and glad to give you a speech about stress , yes , just the topic you see on the screen.psychologist tell us that stress is a state of worry caused by the problem of living , such as too much work or study , heavy responsibilities , and quickened pace of life.Statistics show that stress comes from every detail in our life.Financial problems , poor health , being laid off may be the stress that most adults now suffering.As students in the university , we are also under our special stress.While study , having to take various tests and submit a project against a deadline may put a great pressure on us.And the things make us felt stressed may be our parents’s greater expectations on us than we could reach.Later , when we are likely to graduate , some other problems will also annoy us.I think we will worry a lot about our ability to compete in the job market and how we can best use what we’ve learned at college in our future job.The chief problem we should face to is our atitude towards stress.people usually say they can not live in the sun except they escape from stress.It’s unwelcome!yes , however , very necessary.Just image a world where stress does not exist and people lead their life in a very comfortable way.But is this kind of living condition as perfect as we hope ? without stress , they may feel very satisfied with the current life but lack of power to discover new things.Too much satisfaction result in nothing except a countermarch of the society.No stress , no development.So a certain amount of stress is good.It can stimulate us and increase our level of alertness.And our answer to stress is another vital problem.How to do with ourselves when stress suddenly break into our life ? to wave the white flag and admit our unability , to give up to our ideality , or worstly , just to suicide as to put an end to everything … of cause not.The principle is to tackle with stress gentlely and harmoniously.We should try our best to release ourselves.Such as to do some exercise , to linsen to traditional chinese music or classical music to ease our minds and to learn to view these changes of life as challenges.it’s no use crying over spilt milk.Only to accept what has happened can solve the problem.Ok , i think i was under large stress 3 minutes before , but now i am here and have finished my speech.

第五篇：索羅斯面對金融危機(jī)演講稿

本次金融危機(jī)的顯著特點是危機(jī)并不是由外部因素,例如石油輸出國組織提高油價造成的,而是由金融系統(tǒng)本身導(dǎo)致。目前普遍的金融理論認(rèn)為金融市場最終趨向均衡,而偏離均衡是由于市場難以調(diào)整某些外部突發(fā)事件導(dǎo)致的。而金融系統(tǒng)本身存在缺陷這一事實促使人們開始懷疑這一理論。我總結(jié)了另外一種理論,與現(xiàn)在的理論主要有兩點不同。第一,金融市場并不能準(zhǔn)確地反映當(dāng)前的市場環(huán)境,他們反映出的總是對現(xiàn)實狀況的偏離或曲解。第二,市場參與者所持的并在市場價格中體現(xiàn)的這些曲解的觀點在某些情況下影響了本應(yīng)由市場價格體現(xiàn)的所謂基本面。我將市場價格和現(xiàn)實狀況之間的雙向聯(lián)系稱為“反身性理論”。

我認(rèn)為金融市場具有反射性特點,并且在某些時候,他們會與所謂的市場均衡相去甚遠(yuǎn)。盡管金融市場總是具有反射性特點,但是金融危機(jī)只是偶爾,并且在非常特殊的情況下發(fā)生。通常來講,市場會自動修正本身的錯誤,但有些時候市場上會出現(xiàn)某些錯誤的觀點或認(rèn)識,這些錯誤觀點或認(rèn)識會尋找一種方式強(qiáng)調(diào)正確的趨向,并且在這個過程中強(qiáng)調(diào)了這些錯誤觀點或認(rèn)識本身。這種自我增強(qiáng)的過程可能導(dǎo)致市場遠(yuǎn)離均衡。除非能盡快消除這種反射性的互動,否則這種趨勢將持續(xù),直到這些錯誤觀點或認(rèn)識足夠明顯,而必須被人們所意識到。當(dāng)上述情況發(fā)生時,當(dāng)前的錯誤趨向難以為續(xù),發(fā)生逆轉(zhuǎn)。因而當(dāng)這種自我增強(qiáng)的過程反向運行時,將造成市場災(zāi)難性下跌。

市場繁榮和危機(jī)爆發(fā)總是不對稱的。市場總是逐漸進(jìn)入繁榮階段并逐漸加速發(fā)展。市場危機(jī)的爆發(fā)總是在非常短時間內(nèi)發(fā)生,并會迅速造成大幅的經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑。這種不對稱性是由信用發(fā)揮的作用決定的。當(dāng)價格上漲時,同樣的抵押品可以獲得更大額的信貸,而不斷攀升的價格也創(chuàng)造出樂觀的市場氣氛,鼓勵人們更多地利用信貸。市場達(dá)到繁榮的頂峰時,抵押品價值和財務(wù)杠桿的利用肯定也達(dá)到了極致。而當(dāng)市場價格開始下降時,市場參與者無法承擔(dān)追加保證金,正如我們現(xiàn)在看到的,抵押品被迫清盤導(dǎo)致市場發(fā)生災(zāi)難性下滑。

由此,市場泡沫由兩部分組成:現(xiàn)實的趨向和對這種趨向的錯誤認(rèn)識。最簡單和最常見的密斯例子就是房地產(chǎn)。房地產(chǎn)市場的趨向是,一方面是貸款方不斷提升的貸款意愿,另一方面是不斷攀升的房地產(chǎn)價格。這其中存在的誤解是房地產(chǎn)的價格在某種程度上是獨立于貸款意愿的。這種錯誤觀念促使銀行家在價格不斷上揚(yáng)以及抵押貸款違約率減少的情況下放松了對貸款程序的管制。這就產(chǎn)生了房地產(chǎn)泡沫(包括美國最近發(fā)生的房產(chǎn)泡沫)。盡管房地產(chǎn)泡沫破裂已經(jīng)有很長時期,但這種錯誤觀念仍然以各種不同形式存在,著實令人吃驚。

市場泡沫不是金融市場反身性的唯一證明,但卻是最顯著的。市場泡沫總是伴隨著信貸的擴(kuò)張和收縮,并且?guī)頌?zāi)難性的惡果。由于金融市場容易產(chǎn)生泡沫,而泡沫會擾亂市場,因此金融市場大多受金融監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的監(jiān)管。在美國設(shè)有美聯(lián)儲、財政部、證券交易委員會等多家金融監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)。

我們必須認(rèn)識到,金融監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)和市場參與者一樣,利用曲解的市場觀點做出判斷。而金融監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)可能尤甚于市場參與者,因為他們不僅是自然人,同時也十分官僚,而且受制于政治因素的干擾。因此,監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)和市場參與者的互相影響也具有反身性的特點。與偶爾爆發(fā)的市場泡沫不同,監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)和市場參與者之間的貓鼠游戲一直在持續(xù),因此反身性的特點也一直存在,而忽略它的影響是錯誤的。但是當(dāng)下普遍的金融理論恰恰忽略了反身性的特點,因而引發(fā)了當(dāng)前嚴(yán)重的金融危機(jī)。

我在出版的第一本書《金融煉金術(shù)》中,曾經(jīng)闡述過我總結(jié)的金融市場理論。最近出版的《金融市場新范式:2008年信用危機(jī)及其意義》一書中,我又更新了這一理論。在該書中,我認(rèn)為,當(dāng)前的金融危機(jī)與以往發(fā)生的很多金融危機(jī)不同。這個論斷是基于這樣的假設(shè):美國房地產(chǎn)泡沫的破裂引爆了20世紀(jì)80年代以來逐步形成的更大的“超級泡沫”。

房地產(chǎn)泡沫十分簡單;但超級泡沫則復(fù)雜得多。超級泡沫的發(fā)展趨勢源于信貸和負(fù)債的不斷增加。二戰(zhàn)結(jié)束以后,美國的信貸增長速度遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)快于GNP。可是,當(dāng)羅納德·里根擔(dān)任美國總統(tǒng),瑪格麗特·撒切爾擔(dān)任英國首相后,市場被錯誤認(rèn)識所籠罩。因此,增長率不斷加速,并在80年代呈現(xiàn)了泡沫的特點。

錯誤認(rèn)識來源于當(dāng)前的金融理論,正如我之前提到的,該理論認(rèn)為,金融市場趨向均衡,偏離均衡只是由偶然的外部因素引發(fā)的。這種理論被用來說明追逐自我利益不應(yīng)受到約束以及市場應(yīng)放松管制是合理的。我把這種說法稱作“市場原教旨主義”,并且我認(rèn)為這種論斷是建立在錯誤的論據(jù)基礎(chǔ)上的。僅僅因為監(jiān)管和其他形式的政府干預(yù)被證明是有缺陷的,并不能說明市場是完美的。

盡管市場原教旨主義源于錯誤的前提,但是它卻符合財務(wù)資本所有者和管理者的利益。金融市場的全球化促使資本自由流動,也為單個州政府的征稅和監(jiān)管帶來困難。金融交易的放松管制以及對創(chuàng)新采取的寬松環(huán)境提高了金融企業(yè)的盈利能力。無論在美國還是英國,金融業(yè)創(chuàng)造的利潤都達(dá)到了所有企業(yè)利潤總和的三分之一。

由于市場原教旨主義基于錯誤的假設(shè),因此20世紀(jì)80年代將其作為經(jīng)濟(jì)政策指導(dǎo)原則的做法必將帶來惡果。實際上,從那時起,我們已經(jīng)經(jīng)歷了一系列金融危機(jī)。但是這些惡果對處在全球金融系統(tǒng)最邊緣的國家造成了重創(chuàng),而不是處于金融系統(tǒng)中心的國家。因為整個金融系統(tǒng)由發(fā)達(dá)國家,特別是在國際貨幣基金組織享有否決權(quán)的美國控制。

一旦金融危機(jī)對美國的繁榮產(chǎn)生威脅(例如20世紀(jì)80年代末的儲蓄和貸款危機(jī),以及1998年對沖基金公司美國長期資本管理公司的倒閉),政府就會出面干預(yù),制定政策,解救受困的金融機(jī)構(gòu),在經(jīng)濟(jì)活動放緩的時候出臺貨幣和財政刺激政策。因此,階段性的危機(jī)實際上成為成功的測試因素,鼓勵了更大規(guī)模的信貸擴(kuò)張,以及金融市場應(yīng)獨立運行的錯誤認(rèn)識。當(dāng)然,是金融監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的干預(yù),而不是金融市場修正本身錯誤的能力使得這些測試獲得成功。但是投資者和政府傾向于自我蒙蔽。與出于金融系統(tǒng)邊緣的國家相比,美國的相對安全和穩(wěn)定促使美國極力吸引全球其他國家的存款,使得經(jīng)常賬目的保持赤字。2006年第一季度,美國經(jīng)常賬目赤字達(dá)到了占GNP7的頂峰。

最終,美聯(lián)儲和其他監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)傾向于市場原教旨主義,放棄了監(jiān)管的責(zé)任。他們更應(yīng)該了解,正是他們的決策促使美國經(jīng)濟(jì)保持平穩(wěn)。艾倫·格林斯潘尤其相信,寬松的金融創(chuàng)新環(huán)境將帶來巨大的利益:而相對于創(chuàng)造的生產(chǎn)力,拯救偶然發(fā)生的金融災(zāi)難只是需要付出的很小的代價。當(dāng)超級泡沫依然存在的時候,他對所堅持的自由主義政策進(jìn)行的成本收益分析并未完全錯誤。直到現(xiàn)在,他才被迫承認(rèn)他的論斷存在缺陷。

金融工程包括為利用財務(wù)杠桿創(chuàng)造出人為的金融衍生工具,例如,債務(wù)抵押證券和信貸違約掉期等。它還包括為了使得利潤最大化而利用日趨復(fù)雜的數(shù)學(xué)模型計算風(fēng)險。這些金融工具的復(fù)雜程度之高使得監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)無法計算風(fēng)險,轉(zhuǎn)而依賴金融機(jī)構(gòu)自己的風(fēng)險管理模型。信用評級機(jī)構(gòu)在評估認(rèn)為創(chuàng)造的金融工具時也采用了相似的做法:依賴于發(fā)行機(jī)構(gòu)提供的數(shù)據(jù)信息,而評級機(jī)構(gòu)在不斷增加的業(yè)務(wù)中獲得了相當(dāng)可觀的收入。這些神秘的金融工具和復(fù)雜的風(fēng)險管理技術(shù)都是依賴錯誤的前提,即市場均衡的偏離總是偶然發(fā)生。但是金融工程不斷向市場注入持續(xù)增強(qiáng)的信貸擴(kuò)張的理念,打亂了所謂的市場均衡,并最終導(dǎo)致了危機(jī)。起初,偶發(fā)的金融危機(jī)只是成功的測試。但是次貸危機(jī)扮演了不同的角色:成為超級泡沫發(fā)展的頂峰,或者說是泡沫破裂的轉(zhuǎn)折點。

必須強(qiáng)調(diào)的是并非一定要按照我的反身理論來分析解釋這個超級泡沫破滅的現(xiàn)狀。假使金融當(dāng)局能夠成功控制次貸危機(jī)(在他們認(rèn)為本來能夠控制次貸危機(jī)的時候),這也只是一次成功的嘗試而非實質(zhì)性的逆轉(zhuǎn)。我的反身理論可以很好的解釋目前的現(xiàn)狀而非預(yù)測。他不像以前那些理論這么張狂。他并不像均衡理論那樣所宣稱的可以決定結(jié)果,但他可以斷言一個繁榮最終會危機(jī)爆發(fā),但是他不能決定繁榮期的范圍和時間。事實上,對于承認(rèn)房地產(chǎn)泡沫的人都希望其更快破滅。如果真是這樣,危害會相對小很多,而且政府當(dāng)局可以有能力讓這個超級泡沫繼續(xù)下去。絕大多數(shù)危害都是由于過去兩年房地產(chǎn)泡沫終于按揭有關(guān)的證券所造成的。

新情況的發(fā)生并不能預(yù)測未來的解釋了為何現(xiàn)在仍沒有取得任何進(jìn)展。而最近的經(jīng)驗表明,但是這一現(xiàn)象不能再繼續(xù)被忽視。我們必須認(rèn)識到,反身性理論將“不確定性”這一其它理亂所忽視的因素引入了金融市場。反身性理論可以用于建立數(shù)學(xué)模型來計算風(fēng)險,或?qū)⒗壌钨J轉(zhuǎn)換為可交易的證券。但是,反身性理論所涉及的這種“不確定性”是無法被數(shù)量化的。過度的信賴那些數(shù)學(xué)模型已經(jīng)帶來了巨大的損失。在我的書里,我曾預(yù)測如今的這場金融危機(jī)將是自二十世紀(jì)三十年代以來最糟糕的一次,而整個危機(jī)的發(fā)展進(jìn)程甚至超出我最壞的預(yù)期。9月15日雷曼兄弟宣布破產(chǎn)時,意想不到的事情發(fā)生了:金融體系崩潰了。一家大型貨幣市場基金由于投資雷曼公司發(fā)行的商業(yè)票據(jù)損失了其部分資產(chǎn),使得“貨幣市場基金中的投資永遠(yuǎn)是安全而具有流動性的”這一潛在保證被打破了。這引發(fā)了貨幣市場基金的惡性循環(huán),并迫使作為商業(yè)票據(jù)市場中最主要買家的貨幣市場基金開始停止購買任何商業(yè)票據(jù),從而導(dǎo)致了整個票據(jù)市場的失靈。因此,所有商業(yè)票據(jù)的發(fā)行人(即使最大、最有信用的公司)都被迫降低了他們的信用額度,這又使得銀行間拆借處于停滯狀態(tài)。信用利差(即高于無風(fēng)險利率的風(fēng)險溢價)被放大到前所未有的程度,并且導(dǎo)致股票市場充斥著恐慌情緒。而這一切都發(fā)生于短短一周之內(nèi)。

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)仍被后續(xù)的影響持續(xù)拖累。各國政策制定者都注入大量的資金來恢復(fù)金融系統(tǒng)的活力,把這一點定位為重中之重。聯(lián)邦儲備的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表短短幾周時間從8000億美元膨脹到了1.8萬億美元。當(dāng)這樣還尚顯不足時,美國和歐洲的金融政策制定者都空開許諾,他們決不會放任任何一家大型金融機(jī)構(gòu)倒閉。

這些前所未有措施開始顯現(xiàn)一些效果:銀行間拆借恢復(fù),倫敦銀行同業(yè)拆借利率有所改善。金融危機(jī)開始顯現(xiàn)消退的跡象,但是對于國際金融中心銀行不會倒閉的擔(dān)保正在引起一個新的危機(jī),而這還未引起各國政策制定者的重視:處于國際金融體系邊緣的國家,比如東歐、亞洲、拉美地區(qū)的國家,他們并不能做出同樣的擔(dān)保,因此,金融資本正在從國際金融邊緣國家向中心國家流動。相對于美元和日元,其他貨幣的開始貶值,其中一些貶值程度非常巨大。大宗商品價格一落千丈,新興國家利率飆升。對于信用違約的保險費用也不斷上漲。對沖基金和其它杠桿工具投資者承受了巨大損失,追加保證金通知及被迫拋售蔓延到了中心國家的股票市場。最近,信貸市場又重新開始惡化。

不幸的是,政策制定者一般總是后知后覺。國際貨幣基金組織正在設(shè)立一個新的信貸機(jī)構(gòu)專為財政健康的金融邊緣國家無條件提供5倍于年配額的貸款,但已經(jīng)杯水車薪為時晚矣。重新穩(wěn)定市場需要更多的資金。即使實力稍強(qiáng)的邊緣國家可以渡過難關(guān),那么國力弱小國家又將如何呢?拯救國際金融系統(tǒng)的戰(zhàn)斗還在繼續(xù)。即使最終成功,消費者、投資人、產(chǎn)業(yè)都已經(jīng)收到巨大的沖擊,這對國際經(jīng)濟(jì)活動已經(jīng)產(chǎn)生全面而長久的影響。深層次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退已經(jīng)不可避免,造成類似于20世紀(jì)30年代的經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條也并非毫無可能。

這種嚴(yán)酷的形勢對中國會產(chǎn)生何種影響呢?從很多方面來看,中國的情況要比其它許多國家要好得多。中國已經(jīng)成為全球一體化主要的受益方。相對于其它國家來說,中國外匯儲備充足,銀行體系并未收到嚴(yán)重?fù)p失,中國政府相較別國政府參與了更多的政策選擇。但是,中國卻無可避免會受到全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的影響。出口大幅縮減,鐵礦石等大宗商品庫存增加,股票市場比其國家下跌更加嚴(yán)重,而且房地產(chǎn)泡沫也開始破裂。中國需要刺激內(nèi)需,但這還是遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不夠,中國還需要在推動全球經(jīng)濟(jì)方面扮演更加主動的角色。否則,出口方面不可能有所好轉(zhuǎn)。

包括國際貨幣基金組織和世界銀行在內(nèi)的國際金融組織也有了新的職責(zé):保護(hù)處于國際金融體系邊緣的國家免受位于該體系中心的美國所產(chǎn)生的金融危機(jī)的沖擊。因為中國巨大的外匯儲備,如果沒有中國的協(xié)助,他們就不可能完成這樣的職責(zé)。幸運的是,美國的新總統(tǒng)非常清楚國際合作的必要性。我們非常希望中國的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人也同樣能看清這種合作的重要性。

合作應(yīng)該包括哪些方面呢?超級泡沫源于美國的消費超過其生產(chǎn)能力。2006年,美國經(jīng)常項目赤字高達(dá)美國GDP的7。而這一高額赤字是通過中國和其它亞洲出口導(dǎo)向型國家和其它石油生產(chǎn)國越來越大的美元貿(mào)易順差所支撐的。這種共生的關(guān)系現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)結(jié)束,美國的消費已經(jīng)不能再繼續(xù)作為拉動世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的發(fā)動機(jī)。因此我們需要尋找新的動力。這意味著中國和世界其它國家要在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退時期通過財政赤字政策刺激內(nèi)需。中國可以做到這一點,但是正在受到金融資本外逃沖擊的其它國際金融系統(tǒng)邊緣國家無法做到。我們必須努力停止這種資本外逃,而且需要找到有效的方法來為這些邊緣國家的財政赤字籌集資金。如果沒有順差國家和大量國家主權(quán)基金投入的支持,這就不可能實現(xiàn)。即使這樣也許還遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不夠,信用系統(tǒng)的崩塌和財富減少的如此嚴(yán)重,可用資金已經(jīng)非常不足。或許有必要通過國際貨幣基金組織發(fā)行特別提款權(quán)等形式提供更多的資金。無論如何,刺激消費者需求也許最終仍并不是正確的方式,因為它包括了為支持信貸消費而產(chǎn)生的信貸擴(kuò)張,而信用應(yīng)該主要用于支持投資。

我相信會有其它的解決途徑。世界正在對抗全球變暖這一嚴(yán)重緊迫的難題,為使環(huán)境問題得到控制,需要在節(jié)約能源和尋找替代能源方面進(jìn)行巨大的投資。這應(yīng)該可以成為推動世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的動力。為使這一切成為可能,我們需要針對巨大的碳排放制定一個國際準(zhǔn)則,要求為燃燒煤炭產(chǎn)生的碳排放定價和支付費用。當(dāng)然這樣的國際準(zhǔn)則制定沒有中國的參與是無法實現(xiàn)的。

我希望可以現(xiàn)場回答你們的問題,我相信一定很多問題都會解決的!