第一篇：英語短新聞 中國葡萄酒變得可口了

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It is unfortunate that Chinese wine drinkers seem to be deserting the produce of their own vineyards for imported alternatives.In my experience, the quality of the best Chinese wine has recently turned a corner — in the right direction.不幸的是，中國的葡萄酒消費(fèi)者似乎正拋棄國產(chǎn)葡萄酒，轉(zhuǎn)向進(jìn)口酒。根據(jù)我的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，中國最佳葡萄酒的質(zhì)量最近出現(xiàn)了變化——向著好的方向變化。

For years, it looked as though Chinese producers put more effort into the packaging than the liquid.After all, until fairly recently the great majority of Chinese consumers had no experience of what wine should taste like.So the many fraudsters, the sort who labelled questionable concoctions as “chateau Lafeet” or “Bordeaux Port”, could get away with murder.在多年期間，中國葡萄酒釀造商好像把更多的努力放在包裝上，而非葡萄酒本身。畢竟，直到不久以前，絕大多數(shù)中國消費(fèi)者沒有品嘗過真正的葡萄酒，不知道它們應(yīng)該是什么滋味。因此，很多騙子在品質(zhì)可疑的酒的瓶子上貼上“Chateau Lateet”或“Bordeaux Port”之類的山寨標(biāo)簽，竟然也能蒙混過關(guān)。

The rampant fakery of old, as well as food safety scandals, presumably played a part in encouraging the country’s wine consumers to see imported wine as a more

reliable product.It also tends to be priced much more sensibly.China’s wine producers are apparently still influenced by old gifting habits, with too many overpriced bottles aimed at providing a patriotic official with a domestically produced status symbol rather than a good-value drink.肆無忌憚地假冒陳年佳釀，以及多起食品安全丑聞，想必在一定程度上促使中國的葡萄酒消費(fèi)者把進(jìn)口葡萄酒視為更可靠的商品。進(jìn)口酒的定價(jià)也往往理智得多。中國的葡萄酒釀造商顯然仍受到過去送禮風(fēng)氣的影響，太多定價(jià)過高的葡萄酒旨在為“愛國”官員提供一種國產(chǎn)的身份象征，而非一款物有所值的飲品。

The great majority of the imported wine is fairly ordinary stuff.France in general and Bordeaux in particular used to be the model for all wine to aspire to in China, but imports from Chile and Australia have surged in the past year or two, thanks to friendly trade agreements.Spain, too, offloads vast quantities of incredibly cheap wine to China.絕大部分進(jìn)口葡萄酒的品質(zhì)都相當(dāng)普通。法國，尤其是波爾多地區(qū)，曾經(jīng)是所有葡萄酒希望在中國效仿的模板，但過去一兩年，在友好的貿(mào)易協(xié)定推動(dòng)下，來自智利和澳大利亞的進(jìn)口葡萄酒飆升。西班牙也向中國出口了大量葡萄酒，價(jià)格低廉得令人難以置信。

Meanwhile, at the top end of the market, Chinese consumers used to be seen as ignorant stooges by the many exporters who cast China as their potential saviour in a sluggish European wine market.But they are becoming increasingly sophisticated and knowledgeable.The global leader in wine education, the London-based Wine & Spirit Education Trust, has almost as many Chinese students as British — and the University of Bordeaux is teeming with them.與此同時(shí)，在市場高端，中國消費(fèi)者曾經(jīng)被很多出口商視為不識(shí)貨的小卒（這些出口商現(xiàn)在把中國列為低迷的歐洲葡萄酒市場潛在的救星）。但他們正變得愈發(fā)精明和博學(xué)。葡萄酒教育領(lǐng)域的全球領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者、總部位于倫敦的Wine & Spirit Education Trust的中國學(xué)生與英國學(xué)生幾乎一樣多，而波爾多大學(xué)(Université de Bordeaux)也有大批中國留學(xué)生。Chinese producers are nothing if not determined and efficient.Last year, the country’s total vineyard area overtook France’s to become the second biggest in the world, after Spain’s.Often with local government help, producers have invested heavily in new vineyards and built wine “chateaux” more fantastic, quite literally, than any in the Loire or Hollywood, all aimed squarely at Chinese wine tourists.中國葡萄酒釀造商的特點(diǎn)是堅(jiān)定和高效率。去年，中國葡萄園總面積超過法國，位居世界第二，僅次于西班牙。葡萄酒釀造商往往獲得地方政府的幫助，他們大舉投資于新的葡萄酒園，還建造了“酒莊”，比盧瓦爾河谷或好萊塢的任何酒莊都更加風(fēng)景如畫，吸引著中國的葡萄酒游客。

If wine imports continue their dramatic growth, then Chinese exports will have to increase considerably.So far they have been modest, but UK consumers have apparently shown more interest than expected in such Chinese bottles as have so far been presented to the customers of Sainsbury’s supermarket and the off-licence chain Wine Rack.如果葡萄酒進(jìn)口的戲劇性增長趨勢延續(xù)下去，那么中國的葡萄酒出口將不得不顯著增長。迄今為止，中國的葡萄酒出口增速溫和，但英國消費(fèi)者顯然對(duì)中國葡萄酒顯示出了超出預(yù)期的興趣，中國葡萄酒已在英國塞恩斯伯里超市(Sainsbury’s)以及連鎖酒類商店Wine Rack

上架。

There is one potential handicap, however.The countries that have had the most success in establishing export markets in the modern era have had a USP.New Zealand has carved a niche for the world’s most valuable per-bottle prices by offering uniquely, refreshingly fruity Sauvignon Blanc.Australia saw massive success with its friendly Chardonnay and rich Shiraz.Argentina has blitzed North America with its bold Malbec.不過，還存在一個(gè)潛在的阻礙。那些在現(xiàn)代開拓出口市場最成功的的國家都有一個(gè)獨(dú)特賣點(diǎn)。新西蘭通過提供獨(dú)特的果香沁人心脾的長相思(Sauvignon Blanc)白葡萄酒，打造出了世界單瓶價(jià)格最貴的葡萄酒細(xì)分市場。澳大利亞受人喜愛的霞多麗(Chardonnay)和氣味馥郁的西拉(Shiraz)獲得了巨大成功。阿根廷大膽的馬爾貝克葡萄酒(Malbec)在北美市場風(fēng)靡一時(shí)。

But Chinese vineyards are dominated by the red Cabernet and Merlot grapes that grow in abundance all over the wine world — not least in Bordeaux, which produces massive quantities of inexpensive examples every year, typically made by co-ops that do not have the debt that recent investors may be saddled with.但中國的葡萄園主要種植紅色赤霞珠(Cabernet)和梅洛(Merlot)葡萄，這些葡萄在所有葡萄酒產(chǎn)地大量種植，特別是波爾多地區(qū)，每年生產(chǎn)大量不貴的葡萄，一般由合作社生產(chǎn)，它們沒有近期投資者可能背負(fù)的債務(wù)。

The reaction of many Chinese producers to market trends has been to acquire

foreign vineyards and wineries.Chinese investment in Australian wine production, in particular, has recently gathered pace, and current estimates are that almost 200(relatively minor)Bordeaux chateaux are in Chinese hands.很多中國葡萄酒釀造商對(duì)市場趨勢的反應(yīng)是收購?fù)鈬咸褕@和酒莊。特別是，中國在澳大利亞葡萄酒釀造領(lǐng)域的投資最近加速，同時(shí)據(jù)目前估計(jì)，近200個(gè)（規(guī)模相對(duì)較?。┎柖嗑魄f由中國投資者所有。

Chinese buyers were out in force once more at the primeurs tastings in Bordeaux at the beginning of this month.One thing seems sure: Chinese influence in the world of wine will only increase.4月初，中國買家再次在波爾多期酒品鑒會(huì)上大舉出動(dòng)。有一點(diǎn)似乎是肯定的：中國在葡萄酒世界的影響力只會(huì)上升。

第二篇：美聯(lián)英語短新聞 德國銀行業(yè)歡迎中國投資

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The head of BaFin, Germany’s financial watchdog, said he welcomed Chinese investment in the German banking sector, a week after it emerged that Chinese conglomerate HNA had become the biggest single investor in Deutsche Bank.德國聯(lián)邦金融監(jiān)管局(Bafin)局長表示，他歡迎中國在德國銀行業(yè)的投資，一周前有消息稱，中國綜合企業(yè)海航(HNA)已成為德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)最大單一股東。

Chinese investors have spent billions of euros in Germany in the past few years, but have attracted increasing regulatory scrutiny of late, with the government last year stymieing a bid by a Chinese consortium for the chipmaker Aixtron on security grounds.最近幾年，中國投資者已在德國投資數(shù)十億歐元，但最近招致監(jiān)管部門越來越多的審查。去年，德國政府以安全為由，否決了中國一財(cái)團(tuán)對(duì)德國芯片制造商愛思強(qiáng)(Aixtron)的收購計(jì)劃。

Speaking at BaFin’s annual press conference in Frankfurt, Felix Hufeld said he saw Chinese investment as a vote of confidence in Germany’s banking sector.在德國聯(lián)邦金融監(jiān)管局在法蘭克福的記者會(huì)上發(fā)表演講時(shí)，菲利克斯?胡費(fèi)爾德(Felix Hufeld)表示，他認(rèn)為中國的投資是對(duì)德國銀行業(yè)投下的信任票。

“It is basically a positive story that capital finds it interesting to invest in German

banks and of course [that includes] foreign capital, and of course [that includes] Chinese capital,” he said.“BaFin has no blacklist of which countries can in principle invest here.”

“這基本上是一個(gè)正面的故事，說明資本對(duì)投資德國銀行有興趣，當(dāng)然（這包括）外國資本，當(dāng)然（這包括）中國資本，”他表示，“德國聯(lián)邦金融監(jiān)管局對(duì)于哪些國家原則上可以在我國投資沒有黑名單?！?/p>

HNA disclosed last week that it had boosted its stake in Deutsche to 9.9 per cent, putting it ahead of US investment group BlackRock, which has a 5.9 per cent stake.The Qatari royal family holds between 8 and 10 per cent of Germany’s largest lender via two investment vehicles.上周，海航披露，已將其在德意志銀行的持股比例增至9.9%，超過貝萊德(BlackRock)所持的5.9%持股?？ㄋ柣适壹易逋ㄟ^兩個(gè)投資工具，持有這家德國最大銀行8%至10%的股權(quán)。

C-Quadrat, the asset manager through which HNA bought its stake, has made clear that HNA has no intention of raising its stake beyond 10 per cent, the threshold above which BaFin has to approve stake purchases.海航是通過資產(chǎn)管理公司C-Quadrat購入德意志銀行股份的。C-Quadrat明確表示，海航無意將其持股比例提高到10%以上；如果達(dá)到10%或以上，就必須得到德國聯(lián)邦金融監(jiān)管局的批準(zhǔn)。

Asked whether BaFin scrutinised investments such as HNA’s that came close to, but did not breach the 10 per cent threshold, Mr Hufeld said BaFin could not change the levels at which it was legally allowed to rule on investments, but stressed that

the watchdog was paying close attention to market developments.在被問及德國聯(lián)邦金融監(jiān)管局會(huì)否關(guān)注海航這樣接近，但沒有超過，10%持股門檻的投資時(shí)，胡費(fèi)爾德表示，該局無法改變其依法被允許審批投資的門檻，但他強(qiáng)調(diào)，該局正密切關(guān)注市場動(dòng)向。

“We have carried out reviews very intensively in a series of cases.We take the owner control process very seriously,” he said.他表示：“我們在一系列個(gè)案中進(jìn)行了非常深入的審查。我們非常認(rèn)真地對(duì)待所有者控制過程?！?/p>

“[The arrival of foreign capital] is a general process of internationalisation of the investor base which we are also seeing in other industries, but which in a regulated industry like banking or finance triggers certain reviews?.?.?.?We look at what is happening, we meet such people [who want to invest], we want to get an impression [of them], we want to know who we are dealing with.”

“（外資的到來）是投資者基礎(chǔ)國際化這一總體過程的一部分，我們在其他行業(yè)也看到了，但在銀行業(yè)或金融業(yè)等受到監(jiān)管的行業(yè)，這會(huì)觸發(fā)某些評(píng)估……我們正關(guān)注情況的發(fā)展，我們見了一些人（他們希望投資），我們希望對(duì)（他們）有一個(gè)印象，我們希望知道我們在同誰打交道?！?/p>

第三篇：美聯(lián)英語短新聞 國際投資者關(guān)注中國壞賬市場

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ShoreVest Capital Partners says it has launched a $750m fund targeting bad debt in China as foreign interest builds in a market known for frustrating outside investors.新岸資本(ShoreVest Capital Partners)表示已推出一支7.5億美元的瞄準(zhǔn)中國壞賬的基金。這個(gè)以令外部投資者受挫而著稱的市場，正引起外國投資者越來越大的興趣。

The Guangzhou-based firm said it has already raised cash from sovereign wealth funds and pension funds, tapping into still-nascent demand from global investors for non-performing loans in China.這家總部位于廣州的公司表示，利用全球投資者對(duì)中國正在萌生的不良貸款的需求，該公司已從主權(quán)財(cái)富基金和養(yǎng)老基金中籌集到資金。

At least three other global investors have moved into the market for China’s bad debt this year.今年至少還有其他三家國際投資機(jī)構(gòu)進(jìn)入了中國壞賬市場。

The country’s opaque legal system and problems connected to owning state assets have made recovering returns from bad debt in China a complicated task.Some foreign investors that have waded into the market in recent years have found local courts reluctant to allow foreign investors to restructure companies if jobs were at stake.中國不透明的法律制度以及擁有國有資產(chǎn)所涉及的問題，令從中國壞賬中獲取回報(bào)成為一項(xiàng)復(fù)雜任務(wù)。近年來一些涉足這個(gè)市場的外國投資者發(fā)現(xiàn)，如果就業(yè)受到威脅，地方法院不愿讓外國投資者重組企業(yè)。

The level of bad debt in China, however, has surged since 2013, bringing a surplus of NPL deals to the market and adding pressure on Beijing to resolve the problem.Moody’s recently downgraded China’s sovereign rating for the first time in 25 years in part over concerns regarding surging corporate debt levels.然而自2013年以來中國壞賬水平激增，導(dǎo)致該市場不良貸款交易過剩，也增加了北京方面解決這一問題的壓力。最近，穆迪(Moody’s)25年來首次下調(diào)了中國的主權(quán)信用評(píng)級(jí)，部分原因是出于對(duì)不斷飆升的公司債務(wù)水平的擔(dān)憂。

While the official rate of NPLs at Chinese commercial banks hovers below 2 per cent of total assets, analysts say the true figure could be as high as 15 per cent.ShoreVest estimates that China’s stock of bad debt has hit $3tn and the government has incentivised banks to deal with the load.雖然中國各商業(yè)銀行的官方不良貸款率低于2%，但分析師認(rèn)為真實(shí)數(shù)字可能高達(dá)15%。新岸資本估計(jì)中國的壞賬存量已達(dá)3萬億美元，政府已鼓勵(lì)銀行對(duì)這些壞賬進(jìn)行處理。Global banks started investing in China’s bad loans more than a decade ago and several succeeded in striking profitable deals.More recently, the number of transactions pulled off by outsider investors has remained small.At the same time, local distressed debt funds have sprung up, adding some competition at auctions for bad loan portfolios.國際銀行從十多年前開始投資中國的不良貸款，有多家曾成功達(dá)成交易并實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利。最近外

部投資者完成的交易數(shù)量仍然很少。同時(shí)本土不良債務(wù)基金紛紛涌現(xiàn)，給不良貸款組合的拍賣增加了一些競爭。

Despite the generally tepid sentiment on distressed debt investing in China, ShoreVest says some large global investors are coming around to the market.盡管對(duì)中國不良債務(wù)的總體投資熱度不高，但新岸資本表示一些大型國際投資者重新回到了該市場。

“When I raised our first fund 10 years ago, the only LPs [limited partners] interested in Chinese NPLs were those who were open to sophisticated niche strategies,” said Benjamin Fanger, ShoreVest managing partner.The asset class has since attracted a wider range of larger global investors, he said.新岸資本管理合伙人方杰明(Benjamin Fanger)表示：“10年前我籌建我們的第一支基金時(shí)，對(duì)中國不良貸款感興趣的有限責(zé)任合伙人(LP)只有那些能接受復(fù)雜利基策略的?！彼f，該資產(chǎn)類別后來吸引了更廣泛的大型國際投資者。

Last week Bain Capital said it had bought a portfolio of bad loans from a Chinese asset management company for $200m, its first foray into bad debt in China.ShoreVest is acting as the master servicer for the acquisition, according to Bain.貝恩資本(Bain Capital)上周表示，已斥資2億美元從一家中國資產(chǎn)管理公司收購了一個(gè)不良貸款組合，這是該公司首次涉足中國壞賬市場。據(jù)貝恩資本表示，新岸資本是這筆收購的總服務(wù)商(master servicer)。

In early 2017, US private equity firm Lone Star and Hong Kong peer PAG began buying non-performing loan portfolios in China, according to several people familiar with the matter, marking the first time in years that new global investors

have pushed into the market without a large mainland partner.At the time, PAG said the volume of NPL deals coming on to the market was increasing significantly.據(jù)多位知情人士透露，2017年初，美國私募股權(quán)投資公司孤星(Lone Star)和香港同行太盟投資集團(tuán)(PAG)開始在中國購買不良貸款組合，標(biāo)志著多年來首次有新的國際投資者在沒有大型內(nèi)地合作伙伴的情況下進(jìn)入該市場。太盟投資表示，目前進(jìn)入該市場的不良貸款交易數(shù)量正在顯著增加。

ShoreVest began buying NPL portfolios in China in November.The group was formed by Mr Fanger, a long-time China distressed debt investor, after the split-up of an earlier fund.新岸資本從去年11月份開始在中國購買不良貸款。該集團(tuán)由長期投資于中國壞債的方杰明在早前一支基金分拆后創(chuàng)建。

Some consultants expressed scepticism on the level of global interest in China’s toxic loans and say that, as many investors have long feared, the returns on such investments have continued to fall below expectations.一些咨詢顧問對(duì)中國不良貸款吸引的國際投資意向不看好，他們表示，正如許多投資者長期以來所擔(dān)憂的，這種投資的回報(bào)仍持續(xù)低于預(yù)期。

“I actually don’t think it is increasing right now,” Ted Osborn, a partner at PwC in Hong Kong, said of the overall sentiment for investments in distressed debt in China.“There are six to eight funds that have dedicated some people to finding deals but they aren’t actually finding much.Returns just aren’t there at the

moment.”

普華永道(PwC)駐香港合伙人區(qū)兆邦(Ted Osborn)在提到中國不良貸款投資的整體情緒時(shí)表示：“實(shí)際上我并不認(rèn)為整體環(huán)境正在升溫。有6到8支基金配備了一些人手去找交易，但他們實(shí)際找到的并不多。眼下根本沒有什么回報(bào)?！?/p>

第四篇：美聯(lián)英語短新聞 韓國總統(tǒng)選舉開鑼

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South Koreans are heading to the polls to elect a new leader as they look to make a fresh start two months after former President Park Geun-hye was ousted over a sprawling corruption scandal.韓國人正前往投票站選舉新的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人，在前總統(tǒng)樸槿惠(Park Geun-hye)因一樁不斷發(fā)酵的腐敗丑聞而遭罷免兩個(gè)月后，他們正尋求翻開新的一頁。

Record turnout is expected on Tuesday after Ms Park’s impeachment fuelled citizens’ civic sprit, as voters remain dismayed at the state of the country.樸槿惠被彈劾助長了韓國人的公民精神，周二這天的投票率有望創(chuàng)下紀(jì)錄。選民們對(duì)韓國的現(xiàn)狀仍感到失望。

The next president faces the daunting task of restoring trust in political institutions while reviving an economy plagued by surging household debt, high youth unemployment and stagnant wages.韓國下一任總統(tǒng)面臨的艱巨任務(wù)是，要在振興韓國經(jīng)濟(jì)的同時(shí)，重建對(duì)韓國政治機(jī)構(gòu)的信任。目前，韓國經(jīng)濟(jì)受到不斷激增的家庭債務(wù)、居高不下的青年失業(yè)率及停滯不前的薪資水平的困擾。

According to opinion polls, Moon Jae-in, a liberal candidate with the Democratic party, holds a 20 percentage point lead over his two main rivals — Hong Joon-pyo，a conservative from Ms Park’s party and former provincial governor, and Ahn Cheol-soo, a centrist with the People’s party and former software mogul.民調(diào)顯示，共同民主黨(Democratic Party)自由派候選人文在寅(Moon Jae-in)的支持率領(lǐng)先他的兩個(gè)主要對(duì)手洪準(zhǔn)杓(Hong Joon-pyo)和安哲秀(Ahn Cheol-soo)20個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。洪準(zhǔn)杓是一名來自樸槿惠所在政黨的保守派人士，曾任慶尚南道知事。安哲秀是國民之黨(People's Party)中間派人士，曾是一名軟件業(yè)巨頭。

A victory for Mr Moon would end nine years of conservative rule by Ms Park and her predecessor Lee Myung-bak.Mr Moon served as chief of staff for late liberal president Roh Moo-hyun but he narrowly lost to Ms Park in the 2012 presidential election.文在寅一旦獲勝，將為樸槿惠及她前任李明博(Lee Myung-bak)長達(dá)九年的保守派統(tǒng)治畫上句號(hào)。文在寅曾任已故自由派總統(tǒng)盧武鉉(Roh Moo-hyun)的幕僚長，但在2012年的韓國總統(tǒng)選舉中，他以微弱劣勢敗給了樸槿惠。

Mr Moon, a former human rights lawyer and ex-leader of the main opposition party, has vowed to clean up government and big business in the graft-afflicted nation.He has also pledged to improve inter-Korean relations through more active engagement with North Korea, and is pursuing a two-track approach of dialogue and sanctions to resolve Pyongyang’s nuclear problems.文在寅當(dāng)過人權(quán)律師，也是韓國主要反對(duì)黨的前黨首。他承諾要清理這個(gè)深受腐敗困擾的國家的政府和大企業(yè)，還承諾要以更積極的對(duì)朝接觸來改善韓朝關(guān)系。此外，他正尋求通過對(duì)

話和制裁雙管齊下的方式，解決朝核問題。

Voting stations nationwide opened at 6am local time with voter turnout standing at 14 per cent by 10am, according to the National Election Commission.Broadcasters will release the results of exit polls soon after the vote ends at 8pm, with a winner likely to emerge by 3am on Wednesday.韓國中央選舉管理委員會(huì)(National Election Commission)稱，全國各地的投票站于當(dāng)?shù)貢r(shí)間早上6時(shí)開門，到上午10時(shí)投票率達(dá)到14%。晚上8時(shí)投票結(jié)束后，廣播電視機(jī)構(gòu)將發(fā)布出口民調(diào)結(jié)果，勝選者很可能會(huì)在周三凌晨3時(shí)前浮出水面。

Mr Moon, who has been criticised by conservatives for being soft on North Korea, has pledged to reconsider the installation of a US missile shield in South Korea amid an outcry over US President Donald Trump’s remarks that South Korea should pay $1bn for the defence system.韓國保守派批評(píng)文在寅對(duì)朝鮮態(tài)度軟弱。文在寅發(fā)誓要重新考慮在韓部署美國導(dǎo)彈防御系統(tǒng)的問題。美國總統(tǒng)唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)表示韓國應(yīng)為該防御系統(tǒng)支付10億美元，這一說法遭到韓國人的公開抗議。

第五篇：美聯(lián)英語短新聞 馬克龍改革成敗的意義

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As Emmanuel Macron savours his victory in the French presidential election, he might consider the words of John Maynard Keynes in an open letter, written to Franklin Roosevelt in December 1933.The British economist told the US president: “You have made yourself the Trustee for those in every country who seek to mend the evils of our condition by reasoned experiment within the framework of the existing social system.If you fail, rational change will be gravely prejudiced throughout the world, leaving orthodoxy and revolution to fight it out.”

當(dāng)埃馬紐埃爾·馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)回味此次法國總統(tǒng)大選勝利時(shí)，他或許會(huì)思考約翰·梅納德·凱恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)在1933年12月寫給富蘭克林·羅斯福(Franklin Roosevelt)的一封公開信中的話。這位英國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對(duì)美國總統(tǒng)說：“您已經(jīng)使您自己成為各國有志于在現(xiàn)行社會(huì)制度的框架內(nèi)進(jìn)行合理的實(shí)驗(yàn)以改正我們所面臨的弊端的受托人。如果您失敗了，合乎理性的變革將在全世界蒙受嚴(yán)重的損失，而聽任正統(tǒng)力量與革命去一決雌雄。”

France does not have a global role comparable to the US.But it is certainly true that the success or failure of the new president will matter well beyond France — and even well beyond Europe.If Mr Macron succeeds, the forces of nationalism and political extremism — represented in France by his defeated opponent, Marine Le

Pen — will suffer a setback around the world.But if he fails, populism, nationalism and protectionism will soon be resurgent.法國在全球的角色無法與美國相提并論。但毫無疑問，法國新總統(tǒng)的成敗帶來的影響將遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出法國，甚至遠(yuǎn)超出歐洲。如果馬克龍成功了，各種民族主義、政治極端主義勢力——在法國以被他打敗的對(duì)手馬琳·勒龐(Marine Le Pen)為代表人物——將在世界各地遭遇挫敗。但如果他失敗的話，民粹主義、民族主義和保護(hù)主義很快將再度泛起。

For while Mr Macron can savour a crushing victory over Ms Le Pen, he also knows that 35 per cent of French voters have just voted for a far-right candidate.The cumulative vote for extremists of the far left and the far right in the first round of the presidential election was closer to 50 per cent.That means that almost half of French voters want to smash “the system”.因?yàn)?，雖然馬克龍可以得意于對(duì)勒龐的壓倒性勝利，但他也深知，35%的法國選民剛剛把票投給了一位極右翼候選人。在首輪總統(tǒng)選舉投票中，極左和極右翼候選人合計(jì)得票接近50%。這意味著，幾乎一半的法國選民希望砸爛“體制”。

It is Mr Macron’s job to show that the system can work better.If he fails, then, as Keynes put it in the 1930s, “rational change will be gravely prejudiced throughout the world”.馬克龍肩負(fù)著如下責(zé)任：向民眾證明這一體制能夠運(yùn)行得更好。如果他失敗了，那么——正如凱恩斯在上世紀(jì)30年代所言——“合乎理性的變革將在全世界蒙受嚴(yán)重的損失”。The chances of failure are quite high.Mr Macron has simultaneously to reinvigorate the French economy and the “European project”.Both are notoriously difficult to reform and face deep structural challenges that might defeat even the most

imaginative and dynamic politician.馬克龍失敗的可能性相當(dāng)高。馬克龍必須同時(shí)重振法國經(jīng)濟(jì)和“歐洲計(jì)劃(European project)”。兩者都是出了名的難以改革，還面臨著深層結(jié)構(gòu)性挑戰(zhàn)，這些挑戰(zhàn)甚至可能讓最具想象力、最有活力的政治家沒招。

The tasks of reform at home and in Europe are linked.Unless he can demonstrate to the German government that France is genuinely changing, then the Germans are unlikely to take the risk on the much-deeper EU integration that Mr Macron thinks(probably correctly)is necessary to make the European single currency work.法國國內(nèi)改革與歐洲改革的任務(wù)是相互關(guān)聯(lián)的。除非馬克龍能夠向德國政府證明法國真的正在變革，否則，德國人不大可能冒險(xiǎn)推進(jìn)更深層次的歐盟一體化，而馬克龍認(rèn)為（他很可能正確）只有這樣做才能使歐洲單一貨幣成功。

At home, the challenges he faces are pretty obvious.The French state is abnormally large, with government spending accounting for 56 per cent of gross domestic product.The private sector is over-regulated and the public finances are over-stretched.Reducing the size of the state and making the labour market more flexible should help to generate jobs and economic growth.But any efforts at neoliberal reforms will inevitably face passionate resistance from the far left, the far right, the unions and a large part of the political establishment.Street demonstrations have stopped previous efforts at economic reform in their tracks for 20 years and more.在國內(nèi)，馬克龍面臨的挑戰(zhàn)更顯而易見。法國政府異常龐大，政府支出占國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的56%。私營部門受到過度監(jiān)管，公共財(cái)政不堪重負(fù)?？s小政府規(guī)模、讓勞動(dòng)力市場更具

彈性應(yīng)該有助于創(chuàng)造就業(yè)和推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。但是，任何新自由主義改革努力都將不可避免地遭到來自極左、極右、工會(huì)以及大部分政治建制力量的強(qiáng)烈抵制。在不止20年時(shí)間里，街頭示威已經(jīng)一次次扼殺此前的經(jīng)濟(jì)改革努力。

Mr Macron’s domestic political base is also fragile.He is, in some ways, an accidental president whose victory was achieved partly because the traditional centre-right and centre-left parties chose unelectable candidates, hamstrung either by extremism or by personal scandal.There is a strong chance that Mr Macron’s new political movement, En Marche!, may not gain enough seats in parliamentary elections in June to allow the new president to get his agenda through, without forming an unstable coalition.馬克龍?jiān)趪鴥?nèi)的政治基礎(chǔ)也比較脆弱。在某些程度上，他是一位意外當(dāng)選的總統(tǒng)，他的勝選部分是因?yàn)閭鹘y(tǒng)的中右翼和中左翼政黨選出了不太可能當(dāng)選的候選人——要么是因?yàn)楸謽O端主義，要么是因?yàn)閭€(gè)人的丑聞。馬克龍的新政治運(yùn)動(dòng)“前進(jìn)”(En Marche!)很可能無法在6月的議會(huì)選舉中贏得足夠席位，除非他組建聯(lián)合政府（聯(lián)合政府是不穩(wěn)定的），否則他將無法讓議會(huì)通過他的議程。

But Mr Macron’s position as a political newcomer could also be an advantage if he can carve out a new space in the political centre-ground.As a former minister in a Socialist government, Mr Macron could send a bold signal by appointing a prime minister from the opposite political tribe, the centre right.If he can pull in enough support from the right, while retaining the support of the reformist wing of the Socialist party, he could yet create the backing he needs to push through reforms — for example to the country’s 35-hour working week.但如果馬克龍可以為中間派開拓出一塊新空間，他作為政治新手的角色可能也是一項(xiàng)優(yōu)勢。曾經(jīng)在社會(huì)黨政府擔(dān)任部長的他，可能通過從對(duì)立的中右翼陣營中任命一位首相來發(fā)出一個(gè)大膽的信號(hào)。如果他可以從右翼獲得足夠支持，同時(shí)依然擁有社會(huì)黨改革派的支持，他可能會(huì)贏得推動(dòng)改革（比如改革法國的35個(gè)小時(shí)工作制）所必需的支持。

The problem of opposition on the streets will be real and will have to be faced down.An early pay increase for the police, many of whom will have voted for Ms Le Pen, might be advisable.反對(duì)者走上街頭的問題是切實(shí)存在的，必須強(qiáng)硬面對(duì)。提早為警察加薪（很多警察可能把票投給了勒龐），或許是明智之舉。

If Mr Macron can demonstrate that he is really reforming France, he might then gain the credibility to go to Berlin and demand reforms to the EU.The government of Angela Merkel has been understandably wary of French calls for a loosening of austerity in Europe or for the issuing of common EU debt, believing that they ultimately come down to a desire that thrifty German taxpayers should fund the profligate French state.But there is also a growing awareness in some parts of the German government(the foreign ministry more than the finance ministry)that a failure to give some ground to France and Italy could ultimately prove disastrous for Germany itself, if it means that reformists like Mr Macron fail, and are replaced by radical populists such as Ms Le Pen.如果馬克龍可以證明他真的在改革法國，那他可能得到足夠的可信度，能夠前往柏林，要求

對(duì)歐盟進(jìn)行改革。出于可以理解的理由，安格拉?默克爾(Angela Merkel)政府一直對(duì)法國的如下呼吁心存警惕：在歐洲放松緊縮；發(fā)行歐盟共同債務(wù)。默克爾政府認(rèn)為，這些呼吁歸根結(jié)底是希望節(jié)儉的德國納稅人來資助肆意揮霍的法國政府。但德國政府部分部門也日益認(rèn)識(shí)到（外交部的體會(huì)比財(cái)政部更深），如果不向法國和意大利做出一些讓步——如果這意味著像馬克龍這樣的改革派失敗了，被勒龐這樣的激進(jìn)民粹主義者取而代之——可能最終對(duì)德國本身帶來災(zāi)難性后果。

The election of Mr Macron will also be greeted warily in London, where it is feared that his passionate defence of the EU will translate into a particularly tough line on Brexit.But a more confident France and a revived EU might be less inclined to see Brexit as a mortal threat, and so more willing to strike a win-win deal that keeps markets open and alliances intact.倫敦方面也將謹(jǐn)慎地歡迎馬克龍的當(dāng)選，前者擔(dān)心馬克龍保衛(wèi)歐盟的熱情可能轉(zhuǎn)化為對(duì)英國退歐的強(qiáng)硬立場。但一個(gè)更自信的法國和一個(gè)復(fù)興的歐盟，可能會(huì)不那么傾向于把英國退歐視為致命威脅，因而更愿意敲定一份雙贏的協(xié)議，來保持市場的開放和聯(lián)盟關(guān)系的完好無損。There really is a lot riding on the success of President Macron — and not just in France.法國總統(tǒng)馬克龍的勝利確實(shí)關(guān)系著很多事情——不只是在法國。