第一篇：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融理財對傳統(tǒng)金融行業(yè)影響(好利網(wǎng))

互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融理財對傳統(tǒng)金融行業(yè)影響（好利網(wǎng)）

1.降低信息不對稱

在經(jīng)典的一般均衡理論中，一個無摩擦的市場可以使經(jīng)濟(jì)資源達(dá)到最優(yōu)的配置，此時交易是沒有成本的，金融中介也是不存在的。交易成本和交易時的信息不對稱 是金融中介存在的前提，即金融中介的價值在于降低資金融通的交易成本和緩解資金融通時的信息不對稱。而互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融在很大程度上也可以起到金融中介的作用，對銀行等傳統(tǒng)金融中介有替代作用。

而互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融理財作為互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融興起中發(fā)展較快的領(lǐng)域，其降低理財業(yè)務(wù)時的信 息不對稱主要表現(xiàn)為以下幾點(diǎn)：首先，交易雙方可以在同一平臺上直接交換資金、信用等信息，無需通過其他中介，有效降低了信息在傳遞過程中的消耗和磨損；其 次，在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上進(jìn)行交易會留下相關(guān)的交易信息，這些信息就如同傳統(tǒng)金融理財服務(wù)中的抵押和擔(dān)保，降低交易雙方的道德風(fēng)險；最后，通過網(wǎng)絡(luò)可以對信息進(jìn)行組 織、排序和檢索，在海量信息中可以找到自己需要的信息，可以增進(jìn)交易雙方的相互了解。

2.提升效能

金融理財交易產(chǎn)生大量數(shù)據(jù)，而大量數(shù)據(jù)就需要云計(jì)算，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融理財可以利用云計(jì)算對海量數(shù)據(jù)信息進(jìn)行高速集散處理，這對金融理財行業(yè)提升服務(wù)與風(fēng)險管 控能效至關(guān)重要。此外，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融理財可以通過數(shù)據(jù)信息分析，為互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融機(jī)構(gòu)提供更全面的客戶信息分析，了解客戶的交易習(xí)慣和消費(fèi)偏好，并且準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測客 戶行為，這就使得金融機(jī)構(gòu)在理財產(chǎn)品的營銷和風(fēng)險控制方面可以做到有的放矢。

3.降低交易成本

與傳統(tǒng)金融理財行業(yè)不同，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融理財采取虛擬運(yùn)作的方式?；ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)金融運(yùn)作時不依賴一個又一個的實(shí)體網(wǎng)點(diǎn)，只需互聯(lián)網(wǎng)和網(wǎng)絡(luò)終端設(shè)備，以及少量的工作 人員，就可以實(shí)現(xiàn)資金的劃轉(zhuǎn)、借貸等，其理財所耗費(fèi)的固定成本與

人工成本要遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于傳統(tǒng)的理財行業(yè)?？梢?，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的出現(xiàn)極大程度降低了金融理財?shù)慕灰?成本。

4.擴(kuò)大理財行業(yè)的網(wǎng)點(diǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)

互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融理財?shù)奶摂M網(wǎng)點(diǎn)在很大程度上可以擴(kuò)大金融理財行業(yè)的網(wǎng)點(diǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)。網(wǎng)點(diǎn)多，網(wǎng)絡(luò)覆蓋范圍大，是傳統(tǒng)金融理財行業(yè)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施優(yōu)勢。而互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的出 現(xiàn)和發(fā)展，其虛擬網(wǎng)點(diǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)能夠很大程度上可以補(bǔ)充傳統(tǒng)金融理財行業(yè)物理網(wǎng)點(diǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)覆蓋范圍的不足，甚至能夠替代傳統(tǒng)理財行業(yè)的網(wǎng)點(diǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)。“鍵盤鼠標(biāo)”的優(yōu)勢 對比于“水泥磚頭”的優(yōu)勢，這就相當(dāng)于動搖了傳統(tǒng)金融理財機(jī)構(gòu)的基礎(chǔ)優(yōu)勢。

5.突破時空、地理界限

互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融理財可以于任何時間、任何地點(diǎn)更靈活地服務(wù)更廣大時空范圍的客戶?；ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)金融理財依托全天候、覆蓋全球的虛擬網(wǎng)點(diǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)，讓客戶在任何地點(diǎn)，動 動手指頭，敲敲鍵盤，點(diǎn)點(diǎn)鼠標(biāo)，就能周轉(zhuǎn)任何地點(diǎn)的資金，辦理遠(yuǎn)程理財業(yè)務(wù)，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融理財如此變能夠突破時空和地理的限制，這是傳統(tǒng)金融理財體系望塵莫 及的。

6.將互聯(lián)網(wǎng)精神融入金融理財行業(yè)

“互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融”其實(shí)應(yīng)當(dāng)是“互聯(lián)網(wǎng)”與“金融”兩基因有機(jī)結(jié)合的“轉(zhuǎn)基因金融”。經(jīng)過這兩種基金的強(qiáng)勢結(jié)合，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融理財就將“開放、平等、協(xié)作、分 享”的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)精神融入金融理財行業(yè)，同時充分利用互聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術(shù)平臺，或?qū)⒃炀托碌慕鹑诶碡敇I(yè)態(tài)，或?qū)⒀苌炔煌趥鹘y(tǒng)間接融資，也不同于傳統(tǒng)金融理財體系的 全新金融理財模式。與此同時，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融理財將增進(jìn)其與客戶之間的了解、理解與良性互動，形成新的業(yè)務(wù)客服關(guān)系及商業(yè)模式，因此，在一定程度上互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融 理財更能做到普惠大眾，體現(xiàn)“開放、平等、協(xié)作、分享”之精神。

第二篇：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融對傳統(tǒng)券商的影響

互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融對傳統(tǒng)券商的影響

作為一種互聯(lián)網(wǎng)與金融業(yè)相結(jié)合的垂直領(lǐng)域，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融在很大程度上改變傳統(tǒng)貨幣金融理論及金融行業(yè)業(yè)務(wù)方式。

隨著互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的發(fā)展，傳統(tǒng)行業(yè)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)化正在成為一種潮流，不斷沖擊線下各個行業(yè)。作為一種互聯(lián)網(wǎng)與金融業(yè)相結(jié)合的垂直領(lǐng)域，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融在很大程度上改變傳統(tǒng)貨幣金融理論及金融行業(yè)業(yè)務(wù)方式。在大的發(fā)展趨勢下，傳統(tǒng)券商遲早會被互聯(lián)網(wǎng)化。本文討論想一下是什么導(dǎo)致傳統(tǒng)券商衰落及傳統(tǒng)券商如何應(yīng)對互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的侵略，拓展既得利益。

互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融將提前終結(jié)券商通道盈利模式

1）業(yè)務(wù)種類較少：

傳統(tǒng)證券公司的業(yè)務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)主要包括證券經(jīng)紀(jì)業(yè)務(wù)、證券承銷業(yè)務(wù)、基金銷售、資金管理業(yè)務(wù)、保薦業(yè)務(wù)、財務(wù)顧問業(yè)務(wù)以及投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)。就中國目前實(shí)行金融、證券、保險分業(yè)經(jīng)營的分業(yè)監(jiān)管，意味著目前的證券公司不能涉足其他金融領(lǐng)域，例如商業(yè)銀行業(yè)務(wù)和保險業(yè)務(wù)。因此傳統(tǒng)證券公司從事的業(yè)務(wù)十分有限，只有從事以一級市場的發(fā)行承銷以及二級市場的經(jīng)紀(jì)、自營、資產(chǎn)管理等業(yè)務(wù)。傳統(tǒng)證券公司在之前之所以能發(fā)展及立足，迎合中國人口紅利所帶來的銷售渠道的壟斷。未來，證券公司一但失去線下銷售渠道，勢必會沖擊真?zhèn)€券商行業(yè)。

2）業(yè)務(wù)收入集中

從各大券商2012年的業(yè)務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)來看，業(yè)務(wù)主要集中在證券經(jīng)紀(jì)和證券承銷兩方面。其中，證券經(jīng)紀(jì)業(yè)務(wù)均占了最大的比重，證券公司的業(yè)務(wù)收入過于集中，導(dǎo)致證券經(jīng)紀(jì)業(yè)務(wù)一旦被市場所拋棄，就會威脅到券商的存亡。

傳統(tǒng)證券公司收入過于單一，并且由于受到國家政策因素及人口紅利的影響，無法從傳統(tǒng)金融行業(yè)內(nèi)進(jìn)一步拓展業(yè)務(wù)。因此，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的出現(xiàn)，即使是傳統(tǒng)券商改革的機(jī)遇，也是威脅其存亡的危機(jī)。

互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融興起，加速傳統(tǒng)券商滅亡

互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融體系中影響證券業(yè)商業(yè)模式，改變傳統(tǒng)業(yè)務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)。許多券商和基金公司爭先恐后地設(shè)立網(wǎng)上銷售平臺。但是，證券銷售渠道的電子化不是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融真諦，僅僅把線下銷售業(yè)務(wù)原封不動的搬到線上?；ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)的本質(zhì)則在于打破信息壁壘減少金融的交易成本、提高市場效率。

第三篇：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融理財有哪些風(fēng)險

004km.cn

互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融理財有哪些風(fēng)險

隨著人們物質(zhì)生活水平的提高，越來越多的人開始關(guān)注投資理財市場，同時也有越來越多的閑錢可以用來理財。像傳統(tǒng)金融行業(yè)，像股票、債券、期貨、貨幣基金等等，還有以互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融為代表的個人或企業(yè)融資和理財平臺。那互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融理財風(fēng)險在哪里？

信用風(fēng)險，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融平臺信用審核不嚴(yán)，借款人信用不達(dá)標(biāo)，提供資料虛假等。借款人不及時還錢也是信用風(fēng)險的一種，借款人需要延長還款期限，并且要支付比較高的罰息。不過目前互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融貸款端的資金回收是按月等額本息還款，借款人違約及虛假借款人是信用風(fēng)險的兩大主體，借款人的數(shù)量越多，對互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融管理信用風(fēng)險的要求就越高。

資金流動性風(fēng)險，出借人在出借資金沒有到期的情況下，提前申請回收本金，但多數(shù)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融公司是不允許提前回收本金的，即使允許也會收取相關(guān)的費(fèi)用的。

國家政策風(fēng)險，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融是一個沒有相關(guān)政府部門監(jiān)管的行業(yè)，不像信托、銀行、股票、保險都有相關(guān)的監(jiān)管部門，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融行業(yè)目前靠的是行業(yè)自律，也在試著建立相關(guān)的行業(yè)協(xié)議、行業(yè)公約等。

互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融平臺自身風(fēng)險，平臺是否是正規(guī)經(jīng)營的，是否有正規(guī)的營業(yè)執(zhí)照、經(jīng)營業(yè)務(wù)范圍是否合法、是否吸儲、是否放貸，所轉(zhuǎn)讓的債權(quán)是否是真實(shí)有效的、是否有第三方支付平臺等。不接觸理財客戶的資金的，以保障投資者資金的安全性。

004km.cn 不可抗力風(fēng)險，重大自然災(zāi)害，戰(zhàn)爭爆發(fā)、借款人離世等不可抗力的因素造成的借款人還不了款，將由出借人承擔(dān)損失，不過這些因素很難發(fā)生，一般也不用考慮這些因素。

近段時間，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融領(lǐng)域的創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品層出不窮，高收益、低門檻、操作簡易。然而，由于監(jiān)管空間的缺乏，網(wǎng)絡(luò)投資資金騙局、平臺倒閉以及網(wǎng)絡(luò)欺詐等事件頻繁發(fā)生。這里介紹一個安全可靠的平臺——大圣理財。作為互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融平臺，大圣理財利用互聯(lián)網(wǎng)便捷、透明的特點(diǎn)；以及高保障、高收益、便捷的線上投資理財服務(wù)優(yōu)勢，為廣大投資人提供專業(yè)的理財選擇。大圣理財注冊資金二億元，100%本金保障計(jì)劃，一站式借款服務(wù)，專業(yè)第三方支付接口，風(fēng)險低，高收益，門檻低，100元起投，注冊賬號即送5000元理財體驗(yàn)金，年收益7%-13%，成為投資者最優(yōu)理財?shù)钠脚_。

理財?shù)淖罱K目的是為了生活得更好，所以具備一定經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)后，則應(yīng)改變這種舊觀念，掙錢后科學(xué)打理，然后用于子女教育、居家旅游、改善物質(zhì)和文化生活等消費(fèi)，盡情享受掙錢和消費(fèi)帶來的人生樂趣，這才能稱得上是科學(xué)理財。

第四篇：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融理財?shù)闹饕Ｊ?/a>

互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融理財?shù)闹饕Ｊ?/p>

作者：匯富寶

2014年，人們理財?shù)倪x擇會越來越多，而互聯(lián)網(wǎng)理財為投資人帶來的較高收益讓不少市民很是心動，但是面對花樣繁多的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)理財產(chǎn)品，大家也產(chǎn)生了選擇困難。本文中整理了一些主要的線上金融理財產(chǎn)品和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)理財產(chǎn)品的衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，供投資人參考。

互聯(lián)網(wǎng)理財產(chǎn)品的衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)

收益率：這是人們進(jìn)行投資理財時最看重的一項(xiàng)指標(biāo)。評估基金型互聯(lián)網(wǎng)理財產(chǎn)品的收益多是按慣用的7日年化收益率衡量，其波動性較強(qiáng)。

流動性：匯富寶等互聯(lián)網(wǎng)理財方式的資金流動性較大部分銀行理財產(chǎn)品要強(qiáng)。部分產(chǎn)品不僅可以隨時贖回，其流動性與活期存款相差無幾。

手續(xù)費(fèi)：目前余額寶等理財產(chǎn)品對用戶實(shí)行的是零手續(xù)費(fèi)服務(wù)，而匯富寶等通過網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸實(shí)現(xiàn)的理財方式則大多收取投資人利息收益的10%作為服務(wù)費(fèi)。主要的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融理財模式

貨幣基金：

余額寶等互聯(lián)網(wǎng)時代的新型貨幣基金不僅購買方式便捷，在各自平臺上注冊賬號后和自己的銀行卡綁定就可以購買;而且安全性都比較高。但是，收益狀況一般。

P2P網(wǎng)貸：

P2P(peer-to-peer)網(wǎng)貸是指借貸雙方通過網(wǎng)貸平臺互相借貸，投資人從中獲得利息收益。通過P2P網(wǎng)貸投資理財方便快捷、手續(xù)簡單、收益較高，投資人可以根據(jù)自己的情況選擇不同的平臺。

P2C理財：

P2C是對P2P的延伸，指中小型企業(yè)通過網(wǎng)上借貸平臺向投資人借款，投資人獲取利息收益的一種模式，匯富寶便是以這種模式為發(fā)展方向。

第五篇：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融對傳統(tǒng)金融業(yè)的影響外文文獻(xiàn)翻譯

文獻(xiàn)出處: Ramsey;Labored.Internet Finance's Impact on Traditional Finance [J].The Journal of International Finance, 2014, 16(2): 31-49.原文

Internet Finance's Impact on Traditional Finance

Ramsey;Labored.Abstract

As the advances in modern information and Internet technology, especially the develop of cloud computing, big data, mobile Internet, search engines and social networks, profoundly change, even subvert many traditional industries, and the financial industry is no exception.In recent years, financial industry has become the most far-reaching area influenced by Internet, after commercial distribution and the media.Many Internet-based financial service models have emerged, and have had a profound and huge impact on traditional financial industries.“Internet-Finance” has win the focus of public attention.Internet-Finance is low cost, high efficiency, and pays more attention to the user experience, and these features enable it to fully meet the special needs of traditional “l(fā)ong tail financial market”, to flexibly provide more convenient and efficient financial services and diversified financial products, to greatly expand the scope and depth of financial services, to shorten the distance between people space and time, and to establish a new financial environment, which effectively integrate and take use of fragmented time, information, capital and other scattered resources, then add up to form a scale, and grow a new profit point for various financial institutions.Moreover, with the continuous penetration and integration in traditional financial field, Internet-Finance will bring new challenges, but also opportunities to the traditional.It contribute to the transformation of the traditional commercial banks, compensate for the lack of efficiency in funding process and information integration, and provide new distribution channels for securities, insurance, funds and other financial products.For many SMEs, Internet-Finance extend their financing channels, reduce their financing threshold, and improve their efficiency in using funds.However, the cross-industry nature of the Internet Finance determines its risk factors are more complex, sensitive and varied, and therefore we must properly handle the relationship between innovative development and market regulation, industry self-regulation.Key Words ：Internet Finance;Commercial Banks;Effects;Regulatory 1 Introduction The continuous development of Internet technology, cloud computing, big data, a growing number of Internet applications such as social networks for the business development of traditional industry provides a strong support, the level of penetration of the Internet on the traditional industry.The end of the 20th century, Microsoft chairman Bill Gates, who declared, “the traditional commercial bank will become the new century dinosaur”.Nowadays, with the development of the Internet electronic information technology, we really felt this trend, mobile payment, electronic bank already occupies the important position in our daily life.Due to the concept of the Internet financial almost entirely from the business practices, therefore the present study focused on the discussion.Internet financial specific mode, and the influence of traditional financial industry analysis and counter measures are lack of systemic research.Internet has always been a key battleground in risk investment, and financial industry is the thinking mode of innovative experimental various business models emerge in endlessly, so it is difficult to use a fixed set of thinking to classification and definition.The mutual penetration and integration of Internet and financial, is a reflection of technical development and market rules requirements, is an irreversible trend.The Internet bring traditional financial is not only a low cost and high efficiency, more is a kind of innovative thinking mode and unremitting pursuit of the user experience.The traditional financial industry to actively respond to.Internet financial, for such a vast blue ocean enough to change the world, it is very worthy of attention to straighten out its development, from the existing business model to its development prospects.“Internet financial” belongs to the latest formats form, discusses the Internet financial research of literature, but the lack of systemic and more practical.So this article according to the characteristics of the Internet industry practical stronger, the several business models on the market for summary analysis, and the traditional financial industry how to actively respond to the Internet wave of financial analysis and Suggestions are given, with strong practical significance.2 Internet financial background Internet financial platform based on Internet resources, on the basis of the big data and cloud computing new financial model.Internet finance with the help of the Internet technology, mobile communication technology to realize financing, payment and information intermediary business, is a traditional industry and modern information technology represented by the Internet, mobile payment, cloud computing, data mining, search engines and social networks, etc.)Produced by the combination of emerging field.Whether financial or the Internet, the Internet is just the difference on the strategic, there is no strict definition of distinction.As the financial and the mutual penetration and integration of the Internet, the Internet financial can refer all through the Internet technology to realize the financing behavior.Internet financial is the Internet and the traditional financial product of mutual infiltration and fusion, the new financial model has a profound background.The emergence of the Internet financial is a craving for cost reduction is the result of the financial subject, is also inseparable from the rapid development of modern information technology to provide technical support.2.1 Demands factors Traditional financial markets there are serious information asymmetry, greatly improve the transaction risk.Exhibition gradually changed people's spending habits, more and more high to the requirement of service efficiency and experience;In addition, rising operating costs, to stimulate the financial main body's thirst for financial innovation and reform;This pulled by demand factors, become the Internet financial produce powerful inner driving force.2.2 Supply driving factor Data mining, cloud computing and Internet search engines, such as the development of technology, financial and institutional technology platform.Innovation, enterprise profit-driven mixed management, etc., for the transformation of traditional industry and Internet companies offered financial sector penetration may, for the birth and development of the Internet financial external technical support, become a kind of externalization of constitution.In the Internet “openness, equality, cooperation, share” platform, third-party financing and payment, online investment finance, credit evaluation model, not only makes the traditional pattern of financial markets will be great changes have taken place, and modern information technology is more easily to serve various financial entities.For the traditional financial institutions, especially in the banking, securities and insurance institutions, more opportunities than the crisis, development is better than a challenge.3 Internet financial constitute the main body 3.1 Capital providers Between Internet financial comprehensive, its capital providers include not only the traditional financial institutions, including penetrating into the Internet.In terms of the current market structure, the traditional financial sector mainly include commercial Banks, securities, insurance, fund and small loan companies, mainly includes the part of the Internet companies and emerging subject, such as the amazon, and some channels on Internet for the company.These companies is not only the providers of capital market, but also too many traditional so-called “l(fā)ow net worth clients” suppliers of funds into the market.In operation form, the former mainly through the Internet, to the traditional business externalization, the latter mainly through Internet channels to penetrate business, both externalization and penetration, both through the Internet channel to achieve the financial business innovation and reform.3.2 Capital demanders Internet financial mode of capital demanders although there is no breakthrough in the traditional government, enterprise and individual, but on the benefit has greatly changed.In the rise and development of the Internet financial, especially Internet companies to enter the threshold of made in the traditional financial institutions, relatively weak groups and individual demanders, have a more convenient and efficient access to capital.As a result, the Internet brought about by the universality and inclusive financial better than the previous traditional financial pattern.3.3 Intermediaries Internet financial rely on efficient and convenient information technology, greatly reduces the financial markets is the wrong information.Docking directly through Internet, according to both parties, transaction cost is greatly reduced, so the Internet finance main body for the dependence of the intermediary institutions decreased significantly, but does not mean that the Internet financial markets, there is no intermediary institutions.In terms of the development of the Internet financial situation at present stage, the third-party payment platform plays an intermediary role in this field, not only ACTS as a financial settlement platform, but also to the capital supply and demand of the integration of upstream and downstream link multi-faceted, in meet the funds to pay at the same time, have the effect of capital allocation.Especially in the field of electronic commerce, this function is more obvious.3.4 Large financial data Big financial data collection refers to the vast amounts of unstructured data, through the study of the depth of its mining and real-time analysis, grasp the customer's trading information, consumption habits and consumption information, and predict customer behavior and make the relevant financial institutions in the product design, precise marketing and greatly improve the efficiency of risk management, etc.Financial services platform based on the large data mainly refers to with vast trading data of the electronic commerce enterprise's financial services.The key to the big data from a large number of chaotic ability to rapidly gaining valuable information in the data, or from big data assets liquidation ability quickly.Big data information processing, therefore, often together with cloud computing.4 Global economic issues FOR much of the past year the fast-growing economies of the emerging world watched the Western financial hurricane from afar.Their own banks held few of the mortgage-based assets that undid the rich world’s financial firms.Commodity exporters were thriving, thanks to high prices for raw materials.China’s economic juggernaut powered on.And, from Budapest to Brasília, an abundance of credit fuelled domestic demand.Even as talk mounted of the rich world suffering its worst financial collapse since the Depression, emerging economies seemed a long way from the centre of the storm.No longer.As foreign capital has fled and confidence evaporated, the emerging world’s stockmarkets have plunged(in some cases losing half their value)and currencies tumbled.The seizure in the credit market caused havoc, as foreign banks abruptly stopped lending and stepped back from even the most basic banking services, including trade credits.Like their rich-world counterparts, governments are battling to limit the damage(see article).That is easiest for those with large foreign-exchange reserves.Russia is spending $220 billion to shore up its financial services industry.South Korea has guaranteed $100 billion of its banks’ debt.Less well-endowed countries are asking for help.Hungary has secured a EURO5 billion($6.6 billion)lifeline from the European Central Bank and is negotiating a loan from the IMF, as is Ukraine.Close to a dozen countries are talking to the fund about financial help.Those with long-standing problems are being driven to desperate measures.Argentina is nationalising its private pension funds, seemingly to stave off default(see article).But even stalwarts are looking weaker.Figures released this week showed that China’s growth slowed to 9% in the year to the third quarter-still a rapid pace but a lot slower than the double-digit rates of recent years.The various emerging economies are in different states of readiness, but the cumulative impact of all this will be enormous.Most obviously, how these countries fare will determine whether the world economy faces a mild recession or something nastier.Emerging economies accounted for around three-quarters of global growth over the past 18 months.But their economic fate will also have political consequences.In many places-eastern Europe is one example(see article)-financial turmoil is hitting weak governments.But even strong regimes could suffer.Some experts think that China needs growth of 7% a year to contain social unrest.More generally, the coming strife will shape the debate about the integration of the world economy.Unlike many previous emerging-market crises, today’s mess spread from the rich world, largely thanks to increasingly integrated capital markets.If emerging economies collapse-either into a currency crisis or a sharp recession-there will be yet more questioning of the wisdom of globalised finance.Fortunately, the picture is not universally dire.All emerging economies will slow.Some will surely face deep recessions.But many are facing the present danger in stronger shape than ever before, armed with large reserves, flexible currencies and strong budgets.Good policy-both at home and in the rich world-can yet avoid a catastrophe.One reason for hope is that the direct economic fallout from the rich world’s disaster is manageable.Falling demand in America and Europe hurts exports, particularly in Asia and Mexico.Commodity prices have fallen: oil is down nearly 60% from its peak and many crops and metals have done worse.That has a mixed effect.Although it hurts commodity-exporters from Russia to South America, it helps commodity importers in Asia and reduces inflation fears everywhere.Countries like Venezuela that have been run badly are vulnerable(see article), but given the scale of the past boom, the commodity bust so far seems unlikely to cause widespread crises.The more dangerous shock is financial.Wealth is being squeezed as asset prices decline.China’s house prices, for instance, have started falling(see article).This will dampen domestic confidence, even though consumers are much less indebted than they are in the rich world.Elsewhere, the sudden dearth of foreign-bank lending and the flight of hedge funds and other investors from bond markets has slammed the brakes on credit growth.And just as booming credit once underpinned strong domestic spending, so tighter credit will mean slower growth.Again, the impact will differ by country.Thanks to huge current-account surpluses in China and the oil-exporters in the Gulf, emerging economies as a group still send capital to the rich world.But over 80 have deficits of more than 5% of GDP.Most of these are poor countries that live off foreign aid;but some larger ones rely on private capital.For the likes of Turkey and South Africa a sudden slowing in foreign financing would force a dramatic adjustment.A particular worry is eastern Europe, where many countries have double-digit deficits.In addition, even some countries with surpluses, such as Russia, have banks that have grown accustomed to easy foreign lending because of the integration of global finance.The rich world’s bank bail-outs may limit the squeeze, but the flow of capital to the emerging world will slow.The Institute of International Finance, a bankers’ group, expects a 30% decline in net flows of private capital from last year.This credit crunch will be grim, but most emerging markets can avoid catastrophe.The biggest ones are in relatively good shape.The more vulnerable ones can(and should)be helped.Among the giants, China is in a league of its own, with a $2 trillion arsenal of reserves, a current-account surplus, little connection to foreign banks and a budget surplus that offers lots of room to boost spending.Since the country’s leaders have made clear that they will do whatever it takes to cushion growth, China’s economy is likely to slow-perhaps to 8%-but not collapse.Although that is not enough to save the world economy, such growth in China would put a floor under commodity prices and help other countries in the emerging world.The other large economies will be harder hit, but should be able to weather the storm.India has a big budget deficit and many Brazilian firms have a large foreign-currency exposure.But Brazil’s economy is diversified and both countries have plenty of reserves to smooth the shift to slower growth.With $550 billion of reserves, Russia ought to be able to stop a run on the rouble.In the short-term at least, the most vulnerable countries are all smaller ones.There will be pain as tighter credit forces adjustments.But sensible, speedy international assistance would make a big difference.Several emerging countries have asked America’s Federal Reserve for liquidity support;some hope that China will bail them out.A better route is surely the IMF, which has huge expertise and some $250 billion to lend.Sadly, borrowing from the fund carries a stigma.That needs to change.The IMF should develop quicker, more flexible financial instruments and minimise the conditions it attaches to loans.Over the past month deft policymaking saw off calamity in the rich world.Now it is time for something similar in the emerging world.Conclusions Internet financial model can produce not only huge social benefit, lower transaction costs, provide higher than the existing direct and indirect financing efficiency of the allocation of resources, to provide power for economic development, will also be able to use the Internet and its related software technology played down the traditional finance specialized division of labor, makes the financial participants more mass popularization, risk pricing term matching complex transactions, tend to be simple.Because of the Internet financial involved in the field are mainly concentrated in the field of traditional financial institutions to the current development is not thorough, namely traditional financial “l(fā)ong tail” market, can complement with the original traditional financial business situation, so in the short term the Internet finance from the Angle of the size of the market will not make a big impact to the traditional financial institutions, but the Internet financial business model, innovative ideas, and its apparent high efficiency for the traditional financial institutions brought greater impact on the concept, also led to the traditional financial institutions to further accelerate the mutual penetration and integration with the Internet.譯文

互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融對傳統(tǒng)金融的影響

作者：羅薩米;拉夫雷特

摘 要

網(wǎng)絡(luò)的發(fā)展，深刻地改變甚至顛覆了許多傳統(tǒng)行業(yè)，金融業(yè)也不例外。近年來，金融業(yè)成為繼商業(yè)分銷、傳媒之后受互聯(lián)網(wǎng)影響最為深遠(yuǎn)的領(lǐng)域，許多基于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的金融服務(wù)模式應(yīng)運(yùn)而生，并對傳統(tǒng)金融業(yè)產(chǎn)生了深刻的影響和巨大的沖擊。“互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融”成為社會各界關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。

互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融低成本、高效率、關(guān)注用戶體驗(yàn)，這些特點(diǎn)使其能夠充分滿足傳統(tǒng)金融“長尾市場”的特殊需求，靈活提供更為便捷、高效的金融服務(wù)和多樣化的金融產(chǎn)品，大大拓展了金融服務(wù)的廣度和深度，縮短了人們在時空上的距離，建立了一種全新的金融生態(tài)環(huán)境；可以有效整合、利用零散的時間、信息、資金等碎片資源，積少成多，形成規(guī)模效益，成為各類金融服務(wù)機(jī)構(gòu)新的利潤增長點(diǎn)。此外，隨著互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的不斷滲透和融合，將給傳統(tǒng)金融行業(yè)帶來新的挑戰(zhàn)和機(jī)遇?；ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)金融可以促進(jìn)傳統(tǒng)銀行業(yè)的轉(zhuǎn)型，彌補(bǔ)傳統(tǒng)銀行在資金處理效率、信息整合等方面的不足；為證券、保險、基金、理財產(chǎn)品的銷售與推廣提供新渠道。對于很多中小企業(yè)來說，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融拓展了它們的融資渠道，大大降低了融資門檻，提高了資金的使用效率。但是，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的跨行業(yè)性決定了它的風(fēng)險因素更為復(fù)雜、敏感、多變，因此要處理好創(chuàng)新發(fā)展與市場監(jiān)管、行業(yè)自律的關(guān)系。關(guān)鍵詞：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融；商業(yè)銀行；影響；監(jiān)管 1 引言

互聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術(shù)的不斷發(fā)展，云計(jì)算、大數(shù)據(jù)、社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)等越來越多的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)應(yīng)用為傳統(tǒng)行業(yè)的業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展提供了有力支持，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)對傳統(tǒng)行業(yè)的滲透程度不斷加深。20世紀(jì)末，微軟總裁比爾蓋茨就曾斷言，“傳統(tǒng)商業(yè)銀行會成為新世紀(jì)的恐龍”。如今，隨著互聯(lián)網(wǎng)電子信息技術(shù)的發(fā)展，我們真切地感受到了這種趨勢，移動支付、電子銀行早已在我們的日常生活中占據(jù)了重要地位。由于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的概念幾乎完全來自于商業(yè)實(shí)踐，因此目前的研究多集中在探討互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的具體模式上，而對傳統(tǒng)金融行業(yè)的影響力分析和應(yīng)對措施則缺乏系統(tǒng)性研究?；ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)與金融行業(yè)一向是風(fēng)險投資的主戰(zhàn)場，是思維模式的創(chuàng)新實(shí)驗(yàn)田，因此各種商業(yè)模式層出不窮，很難用一套固定的思維去分類、界定?；ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)與金融的相互滲透與融合，是技術(shù)發(fā)展與市場規(guī)律要求的體現(xiàn)，是不可逆轉(zhuǎn)的趨勢?；ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)帶給傳統(tǒng)金融的不僅僅是低成本與高效率，更在于一種創(chuàng)新的思維模式和對用戶體驗(yàn)的不懈追求。而傳統(tǒng)金融行業(yè)要去積極應(yīng)對?；ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)金融，對于這樣一片足以改變世界的巨大藍(lán)海，是非常值得投入精力去理順其發(fā)展脈絡(luò)，去從現(xiàn)有的商業(yè)模式中發(fā)現(xiàn)其發(fā)展前景的。

“互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融”屬于最新的業(yè)態(tài)形式，對互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融進(jìn)行探討研究的文獻(xiàn)不少，但多缺乏系統(tǒng)性與實(shí)踐性。因此本文根據(jù)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)行業(yè)實(shí)踐性較強(qiáng)的特點(diǎn)，對市場上的幾種業(yè)務(wù)模式進(jìn)行概括分析，并就傳統(tǒng)金融行業(yè)如何積極應(yīng)對互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融浪潮給出了分析與建議，具有較強(qiáng)的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。2互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的產(chǎn)生背景

互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融是以互聯(lián)網(wǎng)為資源平臺，以大數(shù)據(jù)和云計(jì)算為基礎(chǔ)的新金融模式?；ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)金融借助于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術(shù)、移動通信技術(shù)來實(shí)現(xiàn)資金融通、支付和信息中介等業(yè)務(wù)，是傳統(tǒng)金融業(yè)與以互聯(lián)網(wǎng)為代表的現(xiàn)代信息科技（移動支付、云計(jì)算、數(shù)據(jù)挖掘、搜索引擎和社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)等）相結(jié)合產(chǎn)生的新興領(lǐng)域。不管是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融還是金融互聯(lián)網(wǎng)，只是戰(zhàn)略上的區(qū)別，并沒有嚴(yán)格定義區(qū)分。隨著金融與互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的相互滲透與相互融合，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融可以泛指一切通過互聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術(shù)來實(shí)現(xiàn)資金融通的行為?；ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)金融是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)與傳統(tǒng)金融相互滲透和融合的產(chǎn)物，這種嶄新的金融模式有著深刻的產(chǎn)生背景?；ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)金融的出現(xiàn)既源于金融主體對于降低成本的強(qiáng)烈渴求，（百度文庫所有，完整譯文請到百度文庫）也離不開現(xiàn)代信息技術(shù)迅猛發(fā)展提供的技術(shù)支撐。2.1 需求型拉動因素

傳統(tǒng)金融市場存在嚴(yán)重的信息不對稱，極大的提高了交易風(fēng)險；移動互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的發(fā)展逐步改變了人們的金融消費(fèi)習(xí)慣，對服務(wù)效率和體驗(yàn)的要求越來越高；此外，運(yùn)營成本的不斷上升，都刺激著金融主體對于金融創(chuàng)新與改革的渴求；這種由需求拉動的 因素，成為互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融產(chǎn)生的強(qiáng)大內(nèi)在推動力。2.2 供給型推動因素

數(shù)據(jù)挖掘、云計(jì)算以及搜索引擎等技術(shù)的發(fā)展、金融與互聯(lián)網(wǎng)機(jī)構(gòu)的技術(shù)平臺的革新、企業(yè)逐利性的混業(yè)經(jīng)營等，為傳統(tǒng)金融業(yè)的轉(zhuǎn)型和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)向金融領(lǐng)域滲透提供了可能，為互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的產(chǎn)生和發(fā)展提供了外在的技術(shù)支撐，成為一種外化的拉動力。在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)“開放、平等、協(xié)作、分享”的平臺上，第三方融資與支付、在線投資理財、信用評審等模式的不斷涌現(xiàn)，不僅使得傳統(tǒng)的金融市場格局發(fā)生了巨大的變化，也使現(xiàn)代信息科技更加便捷地服務(wù)于各金融主體。對于傳統(tǒng)金融機(jī)構(gòu)，特別是銀行、證券和保險機(jī)構(gòu)而言，機(jī)遇大于危機(jī)，發(fā)展勝過挑戰(zhàn)。

3互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的構(gòu)成主體 3.1 資金供給者

介于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的綜合性，其資金供給者不僅包括傳統(tǒng)的金融機(jī)構(gòu)，也包括滲透進(jìn)入的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)。就目前的市場結(jié)構(gòu)而言，傳統(tǒng)金融機(jī)構(gòu)主要有商業(yè)銀行、證券、保險、基金和小額貸款公司，而新興主體主要包括部分互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)，如亞馬遜，還有一些以互聯(lián)網(wǎng)為渠道的綜合型公司。這些企業(yè)不僅是市場資金的供給者，更是將許多傳統(tǒng)所謂的“低凈值客戶”納入市場資金的供給方。在操作形式上，前者主要借助互聯(lián)網(wǎng)將傳統(tǒng)業(yè)務(wù)進(jìn)行外化，后者主要通過互聯(lián)網(wǎng)渠道將業(yè)務(wù)進(jìn)行滲透，無論是外化還是滲透，二者都通過互聯(lián)網(wǎng)渠道實(shí)現(xiàn)了金融業(yè)務(wù)的創(chuàng)新與改革。3.2 資金需求者

互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融模式下的資金需求者雖然沒有突破傳統(tǒng)的政府、企業(yè)和個體的范疇，但在惠及范圍上卻有著很大程度的改變?；ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)金融的興起和發(fā)展，特別是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)的進(jìn)入使得被排擠在傳統(tǒng)金融機(jī)構(gòu)門檻之外的、相對弱勢的組織和個體需求者，有了一個更加便捷和高效的資金獲取渠道。因此，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融所帶來的普惠性和包容性更勝以往的傳統(tǒng)金融模式。3.3中介機(jī)構(gòu)

互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融依靠高效、便捷的信息技術(shù)，極大降低了金融市場上存在的信息不對稱，交易雙方通過互聯(lián)網(wǎng)直接對接，交易成本也大大降低，因此互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融主體對于中介機(jī)構(gòu)的依賴性明顯減弱，但并非意味著互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融市場就沒有中介機(jī)構(gòu)。就現(xiàn)階段互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r而言，第三方支付平臺扮演了該領(lǐng)域中介機(jī)構(gòu)的角色，不僅充當(dāng)資金結(jié)算的平臺，更是對資金供需的上下游環(huán)節(jié)進(jìn)行多方位的整合，在滿足資金支付的同時，起到資金配置的作用。尤其是在電子商務(wù)領(lǐng)域，這一功能更加明顯。3.4 大數(shù)據(jù)金融

大數(shù)據(jù)金融是指集合海量非結(jié)構(gòu)化數(shù)據(jù)，通過對其進(jìn)行深度挖掘與實(shí)時分析，掌握客戶的交易信息、消費(fèi)信息和消費(fèi)習(xí)慣等，進(jìn)而準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測客戶行為，使相關(guān)金融機(jī)構(gòu)在產(chǎn)品設(shè)計(jì)、精準(zhǔn)營銷和風(fēng)險管理等方面的效率得到極大提高?；诖髷?shù)據(jù)的金融服務(wù)平臺主要指擁有海量交易數(shù)據(jù)的電子商務(wù)企業(yè)所開展的金融服務(wù)。大數(shù)據(jù)的關(guān)鍵是從大量無序的數(shù)據(jù)中快速攫取有價值信息的能力，或者是從大數(shù)據(jù)資產(chǎn)中快速變現(xiàn)的能力。因此，大數(shù)據(jù)的信息處理往往與云計(jì)算結(jié)合在一起。4全球經(jīng)濟(jì)問題

過去一年的大部分時間里，高速發(fā)展的新興國家一直在遠(yuǎn)處觀望著西方國家的金融風(fēng)暴。他們的銀行僅持有少量抵押資產(chǎn)，而類似的資產(chǎn)已經(jīng)破壞了發(fā)達(dá)國家的金融公司。商品出口商因?yàn)樵牧系母邇r格而日漸富有。中國不可抗拒的經(jīng)濟(jì)力量已然開啟，而且信貸刺激的內(nèi)需從布達(dá)佩斯到巴西利亞都表現(xiàn)得非常充足。盡管大蕭條后關(guān)于西方國家受難于金融崩塌的話題與日俱增，但新興國家似乎距離金融風(fēng)暴的中心還有一段距離。

不過目前的情況不再是那樣了，隨著境外資本的流失和經(jīng)濟(jì)信心的消失，新興國家股市暴跌（有些地區(qū)已經(jīng)腰斬），本幣迅速貶值。由于外國銀行突然中斷貸款，并且收縮了包括貿(mào)易信貸在內(nèi)的基礎(chǔ)銀行服務(wù)，新興國家的信貸市場突發(fā)混亂，并引發(fā)了一場浩劫。

新興國家的政府和發(fā)達(dá)國家的政府一樣都在為控制損失程度而奮斗。不過對于外匯儲備充足的國家來說難度會小一些：俄羅斯斥資2200億美元重振金融服務(wù)行 業(yè)；韓國政府擔(dān)保了1000億美元的銀行債務(wù)。而那些儲備并不充足的國家正在四處求援：匈牙利成功向歐洲央行求得了50億歐元（約66億美元）的生命線，同時也在同國際貨幣基金組織協(xié)商借款事宜，同時向國際貨幣基金組織求援的還有烏克蘭。近一打兒的國家在向基金組織求助。

有持續(xù)問題的國家正棋行險招：阿根廷正在將私人養(yǎng)老金國有化，意圖阻止違約的發(fā)生。即使強(qiáng)有力的國家也表現(xiàn)出虛弱一面：本周公布的數(shù)字表明今年中國的增長率在第三季度減緩為9%，雖然增速還算快，但是與近些年的兩位數(shù)增率相比緩慢了不少。

眾多新興經(jīng)濟(jì)的意愿并不相同，但是累計(jì)在一起的影響力卻非同一般。最明顯的就是這些國家的表現(xiàn)將會決定世界經(jīng)濟(jì)所面臨的是一個較為緩和的衰退還是更可怕的情況。在過去18個月的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長中，新興經(jīng)濟(jì)貢獻(xiàn)了75%。但是他們的經(jīng)濟(jì)命運(yùn)也會有一些政治后果。

在類似東歐的很多地區(qū)，金融混亂目前的打擊目標(biāo)是軟弱的政府；但強(qiáng)硬的政權(quán)同樣會嘗到苦果。一些專家認(rèn)為中國每年需要7%的增長率來阻止社會動蕩的發(fā)生?？傮w來說，如此爭端必將影響全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的討論。與以往數(shù)次新興經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)不同，這次的混亂始于發(fā)達(dá)國家，很大程度上要?dú)w咎于一體化的資本市場。一旦新興 經(jīng)濟(jì)崩潰，無論是貨幣危機(jī)還是劇烈的經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條，大家對于金融全球化是否屬明智之舉會有更多的質(zhì)疑。

幸運(yùn)的是上述恐怖的場景沒有發(fā)生在全球的每個角落：所有的新興經(jīng)濟(jì)都會減緩發(fā)展速度，有一些也必將面臨深度蕭條；但是更多的國家在面臨當(dāng)下危機(jī)的時候卻擁 有比以往任何時候都強(qiáng)壯的形式，用充足的儲備、彈性的貨幣和強(qiáng)大的預(yù)算武裝自己。新興國家及發(fā)達(dá)國家良好的政策可以避免大災(zāi)難的發(fā)生。

至少有一個原因值得抱有希望：發(fā)達(dá)國家此次災(zāi)難的直接經(jīng)濟(jì)影響還是在可控的范圍內(nèi)。歐美銳減的需求對出口來說無疑是一個打擊，特別是對亞洲和墨西哥。商品 價格走低：原油價格與巔峰時期比較已經(jīng)下降了60%，很多糧食和金屬類商品跌幅更大。這兩個現(xiàn)象有混合效果：盡管從俄羅斯到南美的商品（能源）出口企業(yè)備 受打擊，但卻幫助了亞洲的商品（能源）進(jìn)口商，并且緩和了各地對通脹的恐懼。委內(nèi)瑞拉的情形一直很糟糕，也很脆弱；不過由于過去極度的繁榮，商品價格下跌 目前還不會引發(fā)大范圍傳播的危機(jī)。

比商品價格更令人震驚的事情發(fā)生在金融領(lǐng)域。由于資產(chǎn)價格的下降，財富水平正在被擠壓縮水。以中國房價為例，目前已經(jīng)開始下跌。盡管新興國家的消費(fèi)者比發(fā)達(dá)國家的負(fù)債水平低很多，上述情況還是會挫傷國內(nèi)的經(jīng)濟(jì)信心。在其他方面，國外銀行借款驟然匱乏、對沖基金以及其他投資者逃離債券市場，這些因素給信貸增長踩了一腳急剎車。正如發(fā)達(dá)的信貸曾經(jīng)強(qiáng)力支撐國內(nèi)支出那樣，信貸緊縮將意味著增長放緩。

需要再次重申的是，沖擊的表現(xiàn)會因國家的不同而有所區(qū)別。多虧中國和海灣產(chǎn)油國經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目下的巨額順差，新型經(jīng)濟(jì)整體還不斷的向發(fā)達(dá)國家輸送資本。但是80 多個國家的財政赤字已經(jīng)超過GDP的5%，其中的多數(shù)是那些依靠國外救助過活得貧困國家；不過也有一些依靠私人資本的大國。對于類似土耳其和南非的國家來 說，突然減緩的境外融資迫使其進(jìn)行大幅調(diào)整。東歐的情況特別令人擔(dān)憂，那里的不少國家赤字水平已經(jīng)達(dá)到了兩位數(shù)。另外，象俄羅斯這樣處于順差的國家，其銀 行也逐漸適應(yīng)了可以輕易從外國取得的貸款，原因自然是全球金融一體化。發(fā)達(dá)國家的救助計(jì)劃也許可以限制財富被擠壓的水平，但資本流向新興世界的速度無疑會 減慢。國際金融研協(xié)會預(yù)測私人資本的凈流量比去年回減少30%。

信貸緊縮必將令人生畏，不過多數(shù)新興市場可以躲過一劫，最大的市場形勢還相當(dāng)不錯。比較脆弱的市場可以（也應(yīng)該）得到幫助。

在那些堅(jiān)強(qiáng)的巨人中，中國卓然不群：手握2萬億美元的儲備，經(jīng)常項(xiàng)下的順差狀態(tài)，與國外銀行罕有關(guān)聯(lián)，過剩的預(yù)算給推動支出留有足夠空間。鑒于國家領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人 已經(jīng)明確表示將不惜一切代價為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長減速緩沖，中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長應(yīng)該會減緩到大約8%的水平，但是決不會崩潰。雖然這不足以挽救世界經(jīng)濟(jì)，但是該增長率將 會為商品價格建底并幫到新興世界的其他國家。

其他的經(jīng)濟(jì)大國會受到更大的沖擊，不過應(yīng)該可以禁受住風(fēng)暴侵襲。印度的財政赤字巨大，巴西很多公司面臨巨大的外匯風(fēng)險。但巴西經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)多樣化，同時上 述兩個國家擁有充足的儲備來平穩(wěn)過渡到緩慢的增長。俄羅斯掌握著5500億美元的儲備，應(yīng)該能夠阻止對盧布的搶購。至少在短期內(nèi)，小國家才是最弱不禁風(fēng)的。

受到緊縮信貸壓力進(jìn)行的調(diào)整必然帶來痛苦，但快速的國際援助是明智之舉，因?yàn)檫@會讓結(jié)果很不相同。一些新興國家已經(jīng)向美聯(lián)儲求援以緩解流動性問題；有一些 則希望中國可以拯救他們與水火。更佳的求救路線莫過于國際貨幣基金組織，因?yàn)樗莆沾罅康膶ｉT知識和2500億美元的可出借款項(xiàng)。不幸的是人們認(rèn)為向基金 借款有辱其名，國際貨幣基金組織應(yīng)該推出更快捷、更靈活的金融工具，同時實(shí)現(xiàn)借貸條件最小化。過去數(shù)月中，機(jī)敏的決策驅(qū)散了發(fā)達(dá)國家的災(zāi)難?，F(xiàn)在也正是新 興世界發(fā)生類似事情的時候了。5結(jié)論

互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融模式不僅能夠產(chǎn)生巨大的社會效益，降低交易成本，提供比現(xiàn)有直接和間接融資更高的資源配置效率，為經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展提供動力，還能夠借助互聯(lián)網(wǎng)及其相關(guān)軟件技術(shù)淡化傳統(tǒng)金融業(yè)的專業(yè)分工，使得金融參與者更加大眾普通化，風(fēng)險定價期限匹配等復(fù)雜交易也趨于簡單化。由于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融所涉足的領(lǐng)域主要集中在傳統(tǒng)金融機(jī)構(gòu)當(dāng)前開發(fā)并不深入的領(lǐng)域，即傳統(tǒng)金融的“長尾市場”，能夠與原有的傳統(tǒng)金融業(yè)務(wù)形成補(bǔ)充態(tài)勢，所以短期內(nèi)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融從市場規(guī)模角度并不會對傳統(tǒng)金融機(jī)構(gòu)帶來很大沖擊，但是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的業(yè)務(wù)模式、創(chuàng)新思路以及其顯現(xiàn)出來的高效率對于傳統(tǒng)金融機(jī)構(gòu)在理念上帶來了較大的沖擊，也帶動了傳統(tǒng)金融機(jī)構(gòu)進(jìn)一步加速與互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的互相滲透與融合。